The Brenthurst Foundation in South Africa recently reprinted an article that appeared originally on 27 January 2015 in the Daily Maverick titled "Somalia: A Case for (Very) Cautious Optimism" by Greg Mills, The Brenthurst Foundation, and Dickie Davis, a retired major general in the British Army. Their report is based on a visit to Somalia.
This is a good summary of the situation in Somalia by two seasoned and knowledgeable observers. Overall, they conclude that trends in Somalia show some cause for optimism. On the downside, the state operates as a clan-based mafia, where entwined business and political interests feed off each other. The big test on the horizon is whether Somalia can agree on a new constitution and then find a solution for a successful 2016 election without slipping backwards, possibly into more violence.