The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) published on 5 January 2017 a brief analysis titled "Kenya: Political Tensions Increase Ahead of 2017 Election" by Alexander Noyes, adjunct research associate at IDA.
The author concluded that given the benefits of incumbency, the ruling party's unity, and the expected backing from the large Kikuyu and Kalenjin ethnic groups, the Jubilee Alliance appears to be in the driver's seat for the 2017 elections.