Saturday, October 24, 2020

Trump Ratchets Up Pressure on Ethiopia Over Blue Nile Dam

 The Washington Post published on 24 October 2020 an Associated Press article titled "Ethiopia Blasts Trump Remark that Egypt Will 'Blow Up' Dam" by Elias Meseret.  

The Trump administration has been pressuring Ethiopia for weeks to accept an agreement the US Treasury Secretary proposed to Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  The agreement seems to favor Egypt; Ethiopia rejected the agreement and requested that discussions about filling the reservoir behind the dam and subsequent release of water from the dam be moved to the African Union, which has occurred.

The Trump administration announced in late September it is withholding some US assistance to Ethiopia until it accepts the US agreement.  President Trump dialed up the pressure on Ethiopia on 23 October when he said Egypt "will end up blowing up the dam." He added: "And I said it and I say it loud and clear . . . they'll blow up that dam. And they have to do something." 

Why the US president is pouring gasoline on this fire escapes me.  The African Union is dealing with the problem; the US should stay out of it.  Sudan is undergoing some of its worst flooding in recent history because of record rains in the Nile Basin.  By holding back some water on the Blue Nile, the Ethiopian dam is actually ameliorating the flooding in Sudan.  Blowing up the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam worsens the flooding in Sudan and could well start a war in Northeast Africa.

While Trump's statement may improve US ties with Egypt's leaders and encourage them to do something really stupid, it significantly worsens ties with Ethiopia and leaves Sudan's leaders scratching their heads.