World Politics Review published on 8 December 2020 an analysis titled "How Abiy's Effort to Redefine Ethiopia Led to War in Tigray" by Tom Gardner, the Addis Ababa correspondent for the Economist.
In a balanced account, the author says the current conflict is not just about power and wealth but a reckoning over Ethiopia's recent past and a contest to determine its future.
He concludes that Ethiopia's future may look like episodes from its past, including the civil war that ushered the EPRDF into power in 1991: a pitiless struggle that ended only when a victor emerged who could exercise effective hegemony. This may deliver what political scientists call an "imposed settlement," and with it, a measure of stability. But the danger is that such a resolution could sow the seeds of grievance from which the next round of violence will one day emerge.
