Foreign Affairs posted on 5 November 2021 an analysis titled "Can Ethiopia Survive?" by Nic Cheeseman, University of Birmingham, and Yohannes Woldemariam, University of Colorado.
The authors conclude that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's fundamental challenge is that Ethiopia's centrifugal (dividing) forces have grown stronger than the centripetal (unifying) forces. If Ethiopia is to survive in its current form, it needs to come up with a reason for existing. The authors suggest there are four possible outcomes of the current civil war, all of which could ultimately threaten the survival of the Ethiopian state. Even a military victory for either side will not likely lead to greater political stability in Ethiopia.
