The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in April 2023 a study titled "Will the Invasion of Ukraine Change Russia-Africa Relations?" by Ronak Gopaldas, director at Signal Risk.
The author concluded that the likeliest outcome for Africa from any eventuality of the war in Ukraine is that Russia's capabilities, influence, and presence on the continent will be blunted by its financial, military, and personnel-related overstretch in Ukraine. Russia may leave a vacuum that could be more destabilizing than its presence.
