Foreign Affairs published on 29 April 2025 an analysis titled "Sudan Is Unraveling: Why War Is Likely to Once Again Tear the Country Apart" by Mai Hassan and Ahmed Kodouda.
Sudan divided into two countries in 2011 when South Sudan became independent. The country's second de facto partition is already beginning along east/west lines. But any split is unlikely to bring durable peace.
Because the conflict is driven by a struggle over regional power and resources, rather than any larger political vision for the country, it remains likely that alliances will keep shifting, local militias will keep defecting, and breakaway groups will keep forming.
