Nanyang Technological University posted on 5 September 2025 an analysis titled "China-Africa Trade Scenarios Amid Global Tariff War" by Rafiq Raji.
The author identifies 4 China-Africa trade scenarios emerging from the global tariff war. (1) China continues to sell Africa manufactured goods and buy raw materials, resulting in growing African trade deficits. (2) China has excess manufacturing capacity and uses Africa as a dumping ground for Chinese goods. (3) African countries exchange higher Chinese investment in mineral extraction for more value-added manufacturing capacity. (4) Chinese firms invest in the production of manufactured goods from extracted raw materials both in Africa as well as upstream processing that plugs into global value chains.
