Al-Shabaab Loses Territory and Fighters

The New York Times published on 4 November 2014 an article titled "As Power of Terror Group Declines, Once-Feared Fighters Defect" by Isma'il Kushkush and Jeffrey Gettleman.  The article describes growing problems faced by al-Shabaab but suggests it is still a dangerous force.  Kushkush and Gettleman argue "the Somali population has decidedly turned against the Shabab." 

Al-Shabaab after the Fall of Barawe

Reuters published on 10 October 2014 an article datelined Barawe, Somalia, titled "Somalia's Islamist Rebels Down but not Out after Military Setbacks" by Feisal Omar.  The article describes the situation in Barawe following its recent fall to AMISOM troops and speculates on the future of al-Shabaab.

Al-Shabaab after the Death of Godane

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published a commentary on 8 October 2014 titled "What Changes for Al-Shabaab after the Death of Godane?" by Berouk Mesfin, ISS Addis Ababa.   Mesfin concluded that over the long term, al-Shabaab will remain a major and actual threat in the Horn of Africa. 

The Life and Death of Al-Shabaab Leader Ahmed Godane

The CTC Sentinel published in September 2014 an article titled "The Life and Death of Al-Shabab Leader Ahmed Godane" by Christopher Anzalone, a PhD candidate at McGill University in Canada.  The author concludes that despite his seeming brilliance in outplaying his opponents, in the end Godane's tenure as undisputed amir of al-Shabaab was short.   

Analysis of Al-Shabaab after Godane

The Center for Policy Analysis and Research (CfPAR) published on 19 September 2014 an analysis titled "The Demise of Al-Shabaab Leader: End of the Game?" by Abukar Sanei, director of CfPAR.  He concludes that the death of Ahmed Abdi Godane will not be the end of the game for al-Shabaab in Somalia because the organization is a group based on ideology, not individuals.  

Al-Shabaab's Last Stand?

Foreign Affairs published on 11 September 2014 a commentary titled "Al-Shabab's Last Stand?" by Paul Hidalgo, an analyst on the Horn of Africa.  The article concludes that the death of Ahmed Abdi Godane provides a unique opportunity for allied forces to press the advantage against al-Shabaab and potentially deliver a decisive blow.  In the long run, however, it may increase the extremist threat in East Africa.

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Al-Shabaab Under New Leadership

The Washington-based Institute for Defense Analysis published in its 11 September 2014 edition of Africa Watch an article titled "Al-Shabaab under New Leadership" by Ashley Neese Bybee.   It concludes that the death of Ahmed Abdi Godane will not cause al-Shabaab to crumble. 

US Attack on Former Al-Shabaab Leader

Arise America TV asked me to comment on 6 September 2014 on the US attack against al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane.  This six minute interview took place before there had been a confirmation of Godane's death.

Al-Shabaab Names New Leader and Reaffirms Allegiance to Al-Qaeda

The Long War Journal published on 6 September 2014 an article titled "Shabaab Names New Emir, Reaffirms Allegiance to Al-Qaeda" by Thomas Joscelyn.  The replacement for Ahmed Abdi Godane is Sheikh Ahmad Umar, also known as Abu Ubaidah.  Al-Shabaab reaffirmed its allegiance to al-Qaeda.

Comments on Death of Al-Shabaab Leader

BBC World News television asked me to comment on 5 September 2014 on the death, now confirmed by the United States, of Ahmed Abdi Godane and what it means for the future of al-Shabaab.  You can view the three minute clip here.

Al-Shabaab after Godane

Foreign Policy published on 5 September 2014 a brief analysis titled "Will Al-Shabab's New Leader Be as Dangerous as Its Old One?" by Gordon Lubold and Kate Brannen.  It speculates on the future of al-Shabaab following the confirmation from the United States that Ahmed Abdi Godane died in the drone strike that took place earlier in the week. 

US Attack on Al-Shabaab Leader

Foreign Policy published on 2 September 2014 an article titled "Pentagon Says It Hit Its Target, but Did It Kill Al-Shabab's Leader?" by Gordon Lubold and Kate Brannen.  This is a good summary about what is known as of this date on the U.S. effort to kill al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane. 

The Washington Post published on 2 September 2014 another good account of this attack in an article titled "U.S. Drone Strike in Somalia Targets Al-Shabab Leader" by Craig Whitlock.

Somalia: The Search for Peace

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa published in March 2014 an analysis titled "Somalia: Fighting the Odds in the Search for Peace after the Transition" by Andrews Atta-Asamoah, senior researcher at ISS in South Africa, and Neus Ramis Segui, a security analyst studying for a PhD in Spain.

The report notes that progress towards peace in Somalia will be defined by the dynamics surrounding the strengths or weaknesses of the new Somali Federal Government, the rapidly adapting al-Qaeda-linked Islamist al-Shabaab, and the success or failure of international support.  The emerging perception among sections of the Somali population as well as the international community of a weak and weakening Somali central government constitutes one of the most challenging developments.

Background Information on Al-Shabaab

The Council on Foreign Relations in New York on 23 September 2013 updated its background piece on the al-Shabaab organization.