Different Chinese and American Strategies to Access DRC Minerals

 Discovery Alert posted on 18 March 2026 an article titled "US Push into DRC Copper and Cobalt Reshapes Global Mineral Security" by Muflih Hidayat.

US Project Vault is a $30 billion critical minerals investment framework.  Rather than purchasing minerals on the international market, the US strategy involves deep capital investment in extraction, processing, and transportation infrastructure.

This contrasts with China's approach.  In the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, Chinese entities control 15 major copper/cobalt operations representing billions of dollars in infrastructure investment accumulated over two decades. This strategy has created supply chains that flow predominantly to China, limiting Western access to critical minerals. 

The comparison between Chinese billions already invested and American strategic financing reveals the challenge facing Western countries.  China's established infrastructure relationships and operational experience provide significant advantages that cannot be overcome through financial resources alone.  

Ethiopian Support for Sudan's Rapid Support Forces May Jeopardize Ties with US

 The National Interest published on 11 March 2026 a commentary titled "How Ethiopia's Involvement in the Sudanese Civil War Threatens US Interests" by Liam Karr.

Ethiopian support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in neighboring Sudan threatens US private and public investment in Ethiopia.  Ethiopian Airlines support for the RSF could additionally cause reputational and legal liability for US interests.

Can American Billionaire Secure DRC Critical Minerals for US in Competition with China?

 Billionaires Africa posted on 4 March 2026 an article titled "Oskar Lewnowski: The Man Betting $9 Billion on Congo's Cobalt to Break China's Grip on America's Mineral Future" by Mfonobong Nsehe.

Orion Critical Minerals Consortium (CMC), founded by American financier Oskar Lewnowski, and Glencore announced in February 2026 that they had entered a non-binding memorandum of understanding for Orion CMC to acquire a 40 percent stake in Glencore's DRC assets, Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company, at a combined enterprise value of about $9 billion.  

Lewnowski is pursuing a financial deal that is a direct counter to Beijing's decade-long strategy of locking up critical mineral supply chains before Western governments understood what was at stake.  This potential investment would help ensure a reliable source of critical minerals for the United States and its partners.  The deal remains subject to due diligence and regulatory approvals.  

The Flaws of "Trade Not Aid" in Africa and Beyond

 Semafor published on 19 January 2026 a commentary titled "The Flaws of 'Trade Not Aid'" by Daniele Nyirandutiye, Desmos Capital Partners.

The State Department unveiled early last year a "Commercial Diplomacy Strategy for Africa" that focused on trade and investment as the centerpiece of engagement.  The author of the commentary in Semafor argues that trade and aid were never meant to compete.  When strategically aligned, they unlock Africa's growth.  But commercial diplomacy without development capacity is not viable.  US private direct investment can play a more useful role, but only if there are adequate incentives in Washington and technical capacity at embassies to assist the private sector. 

Comment:  The author makes a particularly good point when it comes to trade.  US goods trade with sub-Saharan Africa peaked in 2008 and has generally declined since, due primarily to the sharp reduction by the United States in the importation of African oil.  But US goods exports to sub-Saharan Africa have never been impressive, peaking at $25 billion in 2014 and remaining at less than $20 billion in subsequent years.  While increased US-Africa trade is an important goal for both parties and should be encouraged, it is utter fantasy to conclude that trade will replace aid. 

Africa and the Trump Administration

 AllAfrica.com posted on 23 October 2025 a commentary titled "Africa Should Not Expect Much from Donald Trump" by Johnnie Carson, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs during the Obama administration.  

Carson looks back and forwards, concluding that the Trump administration will be minimally engaged in Africa as programs from previous administrations shut down.  

China-US Competition in Djibouti

 The Atlantic Council published on 31 July 2025 an analysis titled "Djibouti Is the Next Arena for US-China Competition in the Red Sea" by Emily Milliken.

The author asks how the US can maintain or strengthen its influence in Djibouti when China is providing billions for infrastructure development.  Greater US support for American investment, partnering with the UAE, encouraging the use of Israeli technology, and engaging the country with strategic clarity would improve Washington's position in Djibouti.

DOGE Targets First Trump Administration's International Development Finance Corporation

 Politico published on 28 April 2025 an article titled "DOGE Targets US Foreign Aid Agency Created under First Trump Administration" by Robbie Gramer and Sophia Cai.  

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was created with bipartisan congressional support during the first Trump administration to provide private sector funding for development projects in lower- and middle-income countries--offering an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative.

A team of DOGE personnel went to the DFC headquarters in Washington this week to begin assessing the agency's effectiveness and alignment with the president's agenda.  

Comment:  Because the DFC was created during the first Trump administration, it may be left intact.  In any event, it was a good initiative that should be retained.  But that has not stopped DOGE from dismantling other good institutions such as the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, U.S. Institute of Peace, and the Woodrow Wilson Center.  

Funding for Premier US Infrastructure Project in Africa Threatened by USAID Dismantlement

 Railway Supply published on 18 February 2025 an article titled "Lobito Corridor Railway Project Faces Uncertainty Amid US Aid Freeze."

The signature infrastructure project in Africa of the Biden administration, the Lobito corridor railway designed to link copper mines in the DRC and Zambia with the Angolan port of Lobito, faces uncertainty as US funding by USAID and the US International Development Finance Corporation is frozen by the Trump administration.  This creates an opportunity for global competitors, especially China.  

Africa and the Trump Administration: Round Two

 The Atlantic Council published on 13 December 2024 a commentary titled "What Trump's Next Presidency Will Mean for Africa" by Rama Yade.

This analysis is less about what the Trump administration will do in Africa in a second term than what it did or did not do in the first term.  The author argues, however, that Africa has more geopolitical interest for the United States today than it did during Trump's first term.  

Africa Policy in a Second Trump Administration

 The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune published in November 2024 a commentary titled "Africa in the Second Trump Administration" by J. Peter Pham.

Pham, who held key roles dealing with Africa in the first Trump administration, lays out several principles and what one might expect in the second Trump administration.  Pham will likely occupy an important position on Africa in the upcoming Trump administration.