The National Interest published on 11 March 2026 a commentary titled "How Ethiopia's Involvement in the Sudanese Civil War Threatens US Interests" by Liam Karr.
Ethiopian support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in neighboring Sudan threatens US private and public investment in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Airlines support for the RSF could additionally cause reputational and legal liability for US interests.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Elliot Nazar.
Sudan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation claimed that Ethiopia is allowing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to launch attack drones from Asosa airport in western Ethiopia against Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)-controlled territory in Sudan. Ethiopia has denied the charge.
If true, this situation could quickly get out of control and result in SAF retaliatory attacks against Ethiopia and encourage closer SAF relations with the Tigray People's Liberation Front.
The Associated Press published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's National Carrier Cancels Flights to Tigray Region as Fears Grow of Renewed Fighting" by Samuel Getachew.
Beginning on 29 January, Ethiopian Airlines canceled flights to and from Tigray region as fears increased of renewed fighting between federal government and regional Tigray forces, possibly supported by neighboring Eritrea.
Nanyang Technological University in Singapore published on 23 August 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia Awards Contract to Construct the Biggest Airport in Africa."
Ethiopian Airlines awarded a contract to a consortium led by Dar, a Middle East-based architecture and engineering consultancy, to develop what will become the largest airport in Africa located 40 kilometers from Addis Ababa. The first phase will cost $6 billion and be operational in 2029.
India's Observer Research Foundation published on 25 January 2024 an analysis titled "Understanding Ethiopia's Port Deal with Somaliland and Its Geopolitical Implications" by Samir Bhattacharya, Vivekananda International Foundation.
The author concluded that the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland has further increased the level of uncertainty in an already volatile region, causing dissatisfaction among multiple stakeholders.
The Conversation published on 13 January 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Deal with Somaliland Upends Regional Dynamics, Risking Strife Across the Horn of Africa" by Alemayehu Weldemariam, Indiana University.
The unpublished Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland has created geopolitical tensions in the region that could exacerbate Ethiopia's internal problems. The author argues that the MOU risks conflict with Somalia and could lead to the renewal of a breakaway push within Ethiopia itself.
The Soufan Center, an independent and non-profit research organization based in New York, published on 11 January 2024 an intel brief titled "Tensions Growing Between Ethiopia and Somalia over Somaliland Port Deal."
The analysis notes that the proposed deal is backed by the United Arab Emirates. On the other hand, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Arab League, Egypt, and Turkiye have sided with Somalia against the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal.
The BBC published on 8 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal Makes Waves in Horn of Africa" by Damian Zane.
Somaliland's defense minister resigned over the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal for access to the Gulf of Aden and a land lease for a military base. The minister complained that he had not been consulted about the deal.
The BBC published on 9 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia-Somaliland Army Chiefs Meet Amid Regional Tensions" by Hanna Temuari.
On 8 January, the army chiefs of Ethiopia and Somaliland met in Addis Ababa to discuss ways to work together.
African Business published on 4 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia's Landmark Red Sea Deal with Somaliland Sparks Diplomatic Row" by Ben Payton.
The article usefully highlights some of the outstanding questions surrounding the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland. More clarity is needed before it is possible to assess accurately the significance of this MOU.
Comment: The article comments that in 2019 Somaliland "established diplomatic relations with Taiwan." Somaliland accepted a "Taiwan Representative Office," which falls short of full diplomatic relations. The office in Hargeisa is not an embassy as Taiwan has, for example, in Eswatini.
Aljazeera published on 4 January 2024 an article titled "Ambiguous Ethiopia Port Deal Fuels Uncertainty over Somaliland Statehood" by Zecharias Zelalem.
The article emphasizes that the issue of Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland seems to have no date attached to it. Other elements of the memorandum of understanding, which has not yet been published, are also ambiguous.
The Economist published on 2 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia's Gambit for a Port Is Unsettling a Volatile Region."
The article lays out the implications for the wider region of the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland that gives Ethiopia access to the port of Berbera and a 50-year lease for a military base in the Gulf of Aden in exchange for recognition of Somaliland and shares in Ethiopian Airlines.
Martin Plaut, a journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa, posted on 2 January 2024 a commentary titled "The Somaliland-Ethiopia Deal: Ending a Crisis or Beginning Another?" Acknowledging there is much we do not yet know about the unpublished memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Plaut notes some of the pitfalls in the deal.
CNN published on 2 November 2021 an article titled "Ethiopia on Verge of Losing Access to Lucrative US Trade Program over Human Rights Violations" by Jennifer Hansler.
This article suggests steps are underway in Washington that will have the effect of further depressing US ties with Ethiopia. So far, there is no indication that either Addis Ababa or the TPLF is interested in responding in a manner that could stop the downward spiral.
CNN published on 7 October 2021 an article titled "US Warns It Could Sanction Ethiopia after CNN Reveals Airline Ferried Weapons during Tigray War" by Nima Elbagir, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Katie Polglase, and Eliza Mackintosh.
Following CNN's report that Ethiopian Airlines last November transported weapons from Eritrea to Ethiopia, it followed up the next day with an article that suggests US officials are getting closer to sanctioning Ethiopian individuals who are prolonging the war in Tigray Region.
CNN published on 6 October 2021 a report titled "Ethiopia Used Its Flagship Commercial Airline to Transport Weapons During War in Tigray" by Nima Elbagir, Gianiuca Mezzofiore, Katie Polglase, and Barbara Arvanitidis.
The article documents several flights by Ethiopian Airlines in November 2020 that transported arms from Asmara and Massawa in Eritrea to Addis Ababa. The airline previously denied that it had transported weapons. Legal experts say the flights would constitute a violation of international aviation law, which forbids the smuggling of arms for military use on civil aircraft.
World Politics Review published on 27 August 2021 a commentary titled "The U.S. Needs Sharper Tools to Stop the War in Ethiopia" by Cameron Hudson, Atlantic Council.
So far, US efforts to stop the conflict in Ethiopia have consisted only of limited visa restrictions on officials on all sides, withholding new investment guarantees, and delaying new funding for multilateral development projects. The author argues it is time for the US to impose real costs on the contending parties, including an arms embargo and an effort to seek a UN Security Council arms embargo. He adds it should also put sanctions on more individuals and companies, possibly including Ethiopian Airways and the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, that are implicated in the conflict.
Comment: The problem with this approach is that the government of Ethiopia would face most of the sanctions and it is questionable whether the sanctions would help end the conflict anyway. At the same time, all sides to the conflict need to be jolted back to the reality that they are tearing Ethiopia apart. The current trajectory will lead to losers everywhere; there will be no winners.
