The Hundred, a political newsletter, posted on 3 December 2024 an interview titled "Ethiopia and Abiy Ahmed" by Tom Gardner, former Economist reporter based in Addis Ababa and now assigned to Nairobi.
This critical assessment of Prime Minister Abiy helps explain why Gardner was expelled from Ethiopia.
Foreign Policy published on 6 September 2024 an essay titled "The Many Faces of Abiy Ahmed" by Tom Gardner, Africa correspondent for The Economist.
This essay is adapted from the book published in 2024 and titled The Abiy Project: God, Power and War in the New Ethiopia by Tom Gardner. The author argues there are many Abiy Ahmeds: the aspiring emperor longing for a glorious past, a forward-looking modernizer, a Pentecostal Putin both pragmatic and Machiavellian, a Christian nationalist, and a corporate CEO. Abiy is convinced he was sent by God to rule Ethiopia.
PIME Asia News published on 11 March 2024 an article titled "The Strategic Alliance between Russia and Eritrea" by Vladimir Rozanskij.
This article describes the increasingly important relationship between Russia and Eritrea in recent years.
The Washington Post published on 6 January 2024 an article titled "An African Gulag So Ghastly that Inmates Risk Death to Escape" by Katharine Houreld.
Based on interviews with former prisoners, many of whom were trying to avoid Eritrean National Service, the article describes the conditions in Eritrea's extensive prison system, which are said to be deplorable.
The US Institute of Peace published on 15 December 2023 a commentary titled "Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously" by Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.
In view of rising tension between Addis Ababa and Asmara due to Ethiopia's desire to access the sea, the author urges that all countries with leverage in Ethiopia and/or Eritrea underscore the need for a formal and transparent peace that provides benefits to the peoples of both countries.
Joseph Pisenti, an American YouTuber in Dallas, Texas, who uses the name RealLifeLore recently posted a 50-minute video titled "Why Ethiopia Is Preparing to Invade Eritrea Next."
This is a summary of Ethiopian history, demography, religion, and ethnicity leading up to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's expression of the need for landlocked Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea.
Foreign Policy posted on 7 November 2023 a commentary titled "Are Ethiopia and Eritrea on the Path to War?" by Mohamed Kheir Omer, former member of the Eritrean Liberation Front.
The author says Eritrean military sources suggest the country is now bracing for a potential war as Ethiopia amasses troops near the Eritrean border in Zalembessa, which is 45 miles from the Eritrean port of Assab. Eritrea has reportedly located 40,000 troops along the Tigray-Eritrea border. The author concludes that "the current trajectory suggests a probable collision course that could have devastating regional implications."
The Ethiopia Observer published on 15 October 2023 an article titled "'Securing Red Sea Access Vital for Ethiopia's Survival,' Abiy Ahmed."
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed commented that Ethiopia is seeking access to the Red Sea through purchase, leasing, or any mutual arrangement. He added that "if we don't find an alternative through dialogue, . . . it could be dangerous."
The Ethiopia Observer published on 16 October 2023 an article titled "Eritrea Says It Will Not Engage in Sea Access-related Issues."
The government of Eritrea responded that it is not interested in discussions about Ethiopia's desire for access to the sea.
BNE Intellinews published on 18 October 2023 an article titled "Somalia Rejects Ethiopia's Call for Negotiations on Red Sea Access" by Marco Cacciati.
The government of Somalia responded that while it is committed to promoting peace and regional integration, it is not inclined to grant access to a strategically significant asset like a port.
Somaliland.com posted on 22 October 2023 an article titled "Djibouti Rejects Ethiopia's Plea for Direct Sea Access, Joining Eritrea and Somalia" by Xamse.
The government of Djibouti rejected, albeit gently, the idea that it has any interest in granting Ethiopia guaranteed access to the Red Sea.
The Financial Times published on 4 October 2023 a comprehensive article from Mekelle titled "Ethiopia's Plan to Rebuild in the Wake of a 'Brutal' War" by Andres Schipani.
The article notes that slowly Ethiopia is coming back from the cold, although peace is tenuous. Continuing violence in Amhara Region and the presence of Eritrean Defense Forces in parts of Tigray Region have resulted in 200,000 battle-hardened Tigrayan Defense Forces keeping their small arms.
The New York Times published on 3 September 2023 an article titled "Netanyahu Calls to Expel Unauthorized Immigrants After Eritreans Clash" by Patrick Kingsley and Abdi Latif Dahir.
Tens of thousands of Eritreans have made their way illegally to Israel seeking asylum. Some support the government in Eritrea while others oppose it. Clashes between these two groups broke out last week in Tel Aviv during an event organized by the Eritrean embassy to celebrate 30 years of independence from Ethiopia. Consequently, Israel called for the deportation of all unauthorized immigrants from the country.
Aljazeera published on 6 May 2023 an article titled "Will Ethiopia and Eritrea Be Dragged into Sudan's Complex War?" by Mat Nashed.
For the time being, Ethiopia and Eritrea are maintaining neutral positions on the conflict in neighboring Sudan. The article looks, however, at the prospect for one or both countries to take sides in Sudan.
Tigrai Press posted a 54 minute interview with me on 1 May 2023 on "The Current Situation in the Horn of Africa" hosted by Bisrat Kebede.
This is a wide ranging discussion of issues in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions, including the implications of the war in Ukraine and role of China and Russia in the region.
The National Interest published on 10 January 2023 a commentary titled "It's Time to Get Serious about Eritrea" by Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute.
The author calls for stronger actions by the Biden administration against the leadership of the Eritrean government.
George Kidane of The Eritrean Studies Forum interviewed me on 9 January 2023 in a podcast titled "Outcomes for Peace in Ethiopia, and American Relations with African Countries."
The 46 minute interview focused on the conflict in Tigray Region of Ethiopia, the role of Eritrea in the conflict, the impact of the US-Africa Leaders Summit, and US-China competition in Africa.
The London School of Economics and Political Science posted on 31 January 2022 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Involvement in Tigray Could Backfire" by Richard Reid, University of Oxford.
The author argues that Eritrea has pursued an opportunistic foreign policy to gain regional superiority at Ethiopia's expense. A weakened and disunited Ethiopia is in Eritrea's interest. But this is a risky policy if Tigray Region rejoins the central government and results in a new threat to Eritrea.
Foreign Affairs published on 26 December 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia's Hard Road to Peace" by Jeffrey Feltman, former US special envoy for the Horn of Africa.
The article lays out the recent history of the conflict in Tigray Region and then focuses on potential spoilers of the peace agreement, especially the Eritrean Defense Forces, Amhara militia, and actions of certain external states and forces.
Africa Insight published on 18 December 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Winner-Takes-All Politics Threatens Tigray Peace Deal" by Yonas Negussie, political economist.
Tigrayan military losses and a collapsing Ethiopian economy pushed Tigray and the central government to the negotiating table. The author argues that Eritrean forces in Tigray Region are committed to destroying the TPLF and the government of Ethiopia is either not prepared or not able to force the Eritreans out of Ethiopia.
World Politics Review published on 6 December 2022 an analysis titled "With the Guns Silenced, Ethiopia and Tigray Must Now Secure the Peace" by Adem Kassie Abebe and Kassahun Molla Yilma.
The biggest challenge to the Ethiopian peace agreement in the short term is the withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Tigray Region. The authors argue that Eritrea is unlikely to oppose the withdrawal of its forces. Another explosive issue is the future control of land known as Welkait and Raya in Western and Southern Tigray Region. These areas are claimed by both Amhara and Tigrayans. The third challenge will be the ability of Tigrayan leaders to sell the diminished status of Tigray Region to its own people. Finally, accountability for atrocities over the past two years is essential.
The Addis Standard published on 24 November 2022 a commentary titled "In Depth Analysis: Can Ethiopia Peace Agreement Resolve War in Tigray and Bring Lasting Peace to Its Devastated Population?" by Beka Atoma Boru.
This account reflects considerable skepticism that the Ethiopian peace agreement signed in Pretoria and Nairobi can achieve its goals.
Ethiopia Insight published on 25 November 2022 a commentary titled "Many Hurdles to Peace in Tigray Remain after Pretoria and Nairobi Deals" by Patrick Wight, senior editor at Ethiopia Insight.
Tigrayan disarmament, withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Tigray Region, the ambiguity of the status of Western Tigray, and accountability for atrocities by both sides are among the most significant obstacles to real peace in Ethiopia.
