Malawi Media Flips from Negative to Positive Coverage of China

 Afrika Focus published in 2020 a study titled "From Watchdog to Lapdog: Political Influence of China on News Reporting in Malawi" by Mwaona Nyirongo, Rhodes University, South Africa.  

Malawi media, especially The Daily Times, generally offered negative coverage of China from 2001 to 2007 when Malawi recognized Taiwan.  This changed in January 2008 when coverage of China became more positive.  Malawi switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Beijing at the end of 2007.  The author argues that the Malawi government significantly influenced the change in coverage of China.  

"Eritrea set to avoid harsh sanctions, still mistrusted"

I'm quoted in Aaron Maasho's Reuters story on Eritrea.

Here are the quotes:

David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia said China and Russia among others were likely to push for a watered-down resolution.

Both China and Russia typically oppose sanctions on African nations, a position that left China in particular in a bind.

"While it has cordial relations with Eritrea and opposes sanctions, it has much more important ties with Ethiopia," Shinn told Reuters.

"Something will probably come out of the United Nations Security Council, but I believe it will be fairly mild."

... "Eritrea is seen by African countries as a pariah state. The government of Isaias Afewerki wants to change this perception," said Shinn.

"Kenya risks rallying support for Somali rebels"

UPDATE: Nov. 2: Al Jazeera quoted from this interview in its piece, "Kenya's blundering mission in Somalia."

I'm quoted in Richard Lough's Reuters story on Kenya and Somalia. Here are the quotes:

"Kenya does not have the capacity to drive al Shabaab out (of southern Somalia) and keep them out," said David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia.

"The best it can do is remove al Shabaab from the border area, and possibly Kismayu, and then try to replace al Shabaab with Somali forces friendly to Kenya."

"Somali rebels reinforce Afmadow, residents flee"

I'm quoted in a Reuters story on Kenya and Somalia.

[Update: The Reuters interview is referenced in a Catholic News Agency story.]

Here's the full transcript of the responses I provided:

Kenya’s action is an expression of frustration as a result of bad developments coming from Somalia whether from al-Shabaab or some other group. I don’t believe Kenya’s action is a publicity stunt or an effort drive al-Shabaab out of southern Somalia. Kenya does not have the capacity to drive al-Shabaab out and keep them out. The best it can do is remove al-Shabaab from the border area and possibly Kismayu and then try to replace al-Shabaab with Somali forces friendly to Kenya such as the Transitional Federal Government, Ras Kamboni faction and/or others.

The Kenyans must understand that a long-term presence inside Somalia will become a rallying cry for al-Shabaab and result in more anti-Kenyan sentiment among many Somalis. It is questionable if pro-Kenyan Somalis would be able to hold this territory after the departure of the Kenyan forces.

In this sense, the Kenyans are creating a dilemma for themselves. On the other hand, they are fed up with the antics of al-Shabaab and some of these criminal Somali groups and felt that it had to take action. Kenya may have intelligence that al-Shabaab captured the French and British tourists and the two Spanish MSF volunteers.

I am not convinced al-Shabaab carried out these attacks. But the fact is that all four of these people returned to territory under the control of al-Shabaab, which makes al-Shabaab complicit whether it conducted the operations or not.

"The headaches of getting aid to famine-stricken Somalia"

I'm quoted in Katie Nguyen and Katy Migiro's Reuters article about Somalia. Here is the quote from the story:

"Many Somalis in southern Somalia will die either under al Shabaab control or escape the region to refugee camps in Kenya and Ethiopia or even become IDPs (internally displaced) in small areas controlled by ASWJ (Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, a pro-government group) and the TFG (transitional federal government)," said David Shinn, adjunct professor of international affairs at George Washington University and a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia.

"Either way, this damages al Shabaab's image and weakens its control."

And here is the full quote I provided:

There are divisions within al-Shabaab but I would not go so far as to suggest the organization is fractured. I believe it is under heavier than normal pressure because it looks bad when you cannot keep people alive in the territory you control. Many Somalis in southern Somalia will either die under al-Shabaab control or escape the region to refugee camps in Kenya and Ethiopia or even become IDPs in small areas of Somalia controlled by ASWJ and the TFG. Either way, this damages al-Shabaab’s image and weakens its control.

If al-Shabaab is smart, it will swallow its misguided principles and give international aid agencies and non-governmental organizations unrestricted and unconditional access to feed Somalis in territory that al-Shabaab controls. I believe the international community could stem much of the movement of Somalis out of southern Somalia if al-Shabaab were to do this. Security concerns will still be an issue. It is possible that elements of al-Shabaab or independent militias would try to take advantage of the situation and steal food supplies delivered by the international community. Little is known about the current capacity of previous independent militias in southern Somalia. The logistics of operating in this area are also most difficult; the infrastructure is largely destroyed. There may also be landmines in certain areas. This is a huge challenge for the aid agencies.

"Seizing Mogadishu will not end Somali conflict"

I'm quoted in Richard Lough's Reuters article on Somalia (edited by David Clarke). Here are the quotes:

"HARD AND MESSY" FIGHT

Most Horn of Africa experts predict the government and peacekeepers will have little choice but to draw on their superior fire power.

"It will be hard and messy to take control of Bakara market," said David Shinn, adjunct professor of international affairs at George Washington University and a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia.

...Analysts, however, are sceptical that military gains alone will end more than two decades of conflict in Somalia.

"The Somalis themselves need to turn on al Shabaab to end the crisis and put Somalia in a position to create a broad-based government," said Shinn.

The death of Osama bin Laden will probably not have much of an effect on al-Shabaab operations in Somalia

I'm quoted in Reuters east Africa correspondent Richard Lough's story "Bin Laden death will not dampen Somali insurgency." Below is the full quote I provided:

---

Al-Shabaab is not under the operational control of al-Qaeda but does have close links with it. I think the death of Osama bin Laden will have minimal impact on the al-Shabaab rank and file, nearly all of whom are young Somalis and few of whom are ideologically motivated.

Osama bin Laden was never a major draw for them. The death will have some impact on the leadership of al-Shabaab, about half of which consists of non-Somali foreigners and a small number of Somalis who had a direct connection with the Taliban and/or al-Qaeda. (It is believed there are between 200 and 300 non-Somali foreigners in al-Shabaab; there is a larger number of Somalis with foreign passports from the diaspora.)

Seth Anderson/Flickr

The non-Somali component in particular may begin to question the moorings of the organization and cause it to associate even more heavily with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). This was a trend well underway before the death of Osama bin Laden.

There is no evidence that al-Shabaab relied significantly on al-Qaeda for funding. It has its own internal sources—taxing, businesses, commerce through the port of Kismayu, etc. Al-Qaeda may have provided some training to al-Shabaab. There conceivably could be a disruption to the extent it was occurring at all.

Nevertheless, the tangible impact on al-Shabaab is likely to be minimal. The psychological impact on the foreigners and small number of Somali jihadists will be greater, but because al-Shabaab is not under the control of al-Qaeda, even this impact may be short-lived.

I doubt that the death of Osama bin Laden will have much of an effect al-Shabaab operations in Somalia. It is currently doing about everything that it is capable of doing. There are few attractive targets in Somalia other than the superior AMISOM forces.

There could be an effort to carry out an attack in a neighboring country— particularly Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, or Burundi — along the lines of the bombings in Kampala in July 2010. Al-Shabaab has the capacity to do this. It will have to weigh carefully, however, the response from the source that it might attack.

Following the bombings in Kampala, Uganda increased its troop presence in Mogadishu. Burundi might do the same. Ethiopia and Kenya could send troops deep into al-Shabaab-held territory, although that could be exactly what al-Shabaab would like to see happen. Any al-Shabaab attack beyond the region would be fairly modest in scope because of al-Shabaab’s limited capacity. But its extensive diaspora network does open that possibility.

AMISOM and the TFG have already begun a major offensive against al-Shabaab in Mogadishu and along the Kenya/Somalia border. I doubt there will be much change in activity as a result of the death of Osama bin Laden.

"No African red carpet for King of Kings"

I'm quoted in David Clarke's Reuters story "No African red carpet for King of Kings." Here is the quote:

"Eritrea has close relations with Gaddafi and Isaias does not seem concerned about the views of his African colleagues," said David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Eritrea's neighbour Ethiopia.

As long as Isaias remains in power, Gaddafi should be safe from any international prosecution.

Here's the full statement I provided Clarke in response to his questions about where Gaddafi might theoretically seek refuge in Africa if he is forced to flee:

Much would depend on the circumstances of his departure from Libya. If he left in utter desperation, it is difficult to identify a single African state that would be interested in taking him. In my view, the two most likely candidates would be Zimbabwe and Eritrea. Zimbabwe already has Mengistu Haile Mariam. Eritrea has close relations with Gaddafi and Isaias does not seem concerned about the views of his African colleagues. South Africa would not take him and I can’t imagine that Senegal would do so. Burkina Faso is also an unlikely candidate. Chad and Niger are too close and would be fearful of cross border activity. Equatorial Guinea is an outside possibility, perhaps together with the Comoro Islands. The rest of the world might think of them as island prisons.

Should Gaddafi leave as part of a negotiated arrangement to end or prevent a civil war, then the situation changes. The receiving country could argue that it was doing a favor for all of Africa. In such a situation, possible recipients include Zimbabwe, Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea, Comoro Islands and perhaps a half dozen others. Neighboring countries would not, however, want Gaddafi for fear that it would lead to retribution.

"Federalism in Ethiopia helps maintain unity"

I'm quoted in Aaron Maasho's Reuters article. Here are the relevant quotes:

MORE DEMOCRACY THE CURE

But experts are divided on whether Ethiopia has finally conjured up the right formula to rid itself from ethnic strife.

"It has obviously served well the purposes of the EPRDF (ruling party)," David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, told Reuters.

"Most ethnic groups, especially the Oromo, like the language policy, which allows selection of the predominant language in each region," he said.

"Article 39, on the other hand, has caused a lot of confusion and has the potential to create dangerous divisions in the unity of the Ethiopian state," he said, referring to a clause in the constitution which grants the right to secession.

"Jailed Ethiopian opposition leader freed"

I'm quoted in Barry Malone's Reuters article:

Some analysts said the release [of former judge Birtukan Mideksa] could be a drive to repair some of the damage to the country's democratic credentials following the landslide election victory -- and given that Meles has since consolidated power he can afford to be magnanimous.

"This may be part of a broader campaign to reorient the political system so that it at least appears to be more democratic," said David Shinn, a former U.S. envoy to Ethiopia.

"In fact, it might even become more democratic. Many of the original EPRDF leaders have moved or are moving to the sidelines. Meles has stated that he will not run for prime minister in 2015 and I believe he will not," he told Reuters.

Here's the full text of my response to several of Malone's questions:

This is a hard one to comment on from such a long distance.

Although western donors have been pressuring the Ethiopian government for the release of Birtukan since her imprisonment, I doubt this had much of a role in the government’s decision. Ethiopians in general and the EPRDF in particular do not react well to outside pressure.

This may be part of a broader campaign to reorient the political system so that it at least appears to be more democratic. In fact, it might even become more democratic. Many of the original EPRDF/TPLF leaders have moved or are moving to the sidelines. Meles has stated without qualification that he will not run for prime minister in 2015 and I believe he will not. While the EPRDF will make every effort to stay in power, I don’t believe it ever again wants to find itself winning 99 percent of the seats in parliament.

If the EPRDF had released Birtukan before the election, it would have appeared that the party was responding from a position of weakness and possibly donor pressure. By doing so after the election, it looks like the EPRDF is operating from a position of strength.

If Birtukan is permitted to return to politics, I believe she could be a formidable opponent, although I know nothing about the rumors concerning her health. I think she can also attract support across ethnic lines, although it is not clear to me how deep that cross-ethnic support will go.

Interview with Reuters Africa

UPDATE: 5/25, Barry Malone, an Addis Ababa-based reporter, alerted me on Twitter to another Reuters piece (based on the same interview) titled "Ethiopia's ruling party set for landslide win," which quotes me much more extensively. Malone's stories also appear in Cape Times, Yahoo! News and Kuwait Times.

Full text here. Here's the quote:

"As countries like China, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and Brazil increase their engagement in Ethiopia, Meles may conclude that he does not have to pay quite so much attention to the concerns of Western countries," David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia told Reuters.

Quote on Sudan in Reuters

Ed Cropley of Reuters ran an article on April 9 on southern Sudan titled "Southern Sudan: oil boom or bust up?" in which I am quoted. You can find the article here. Here is the quote:

But analysts say Washington will be loathe to take sides in a fiendishly complex conflict in the heart of Africa, and is more likely to focus on avoiding a new north-south war and keeping an independent south in one piece and on its feet. "I would guess that the preference for the U.S. government all along is the unity of Sudan," former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn told Reuters. "But you have to make plans for a divided Sudan -- and then just hope that it doesn't divide into more than two parts."

Reuters: What an al-Shabaab win would mean for Somalia

I was quoted in an article today by William Maclean, a security correspondent at Reuters, titled "What would al Shabaab win mean for Somalia?" Here is the first quote:

Horn of Africa specialist David Shinn said foreign concern about al Shabaab and its recruitment of foreign fighters would translate into outside support for the domestic opposition, especially the moderate Islamist Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca group. The United Nations and the AU say hundreds of foreigners have flocked to join al Shabaab. Some analysts say these accounts appear exaggerated. But Western powers fear that if the government is overthrown, the militants will try to destabilise parts of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya and Yemen as well as central and northern Somali regions. "I don't see large troop movements into Somalia," said Shinn. "Opposition would be something not as visible to the naked eye, and it would begin rather slowly. But it would build over time if Shabaab seemed to have staying power."

And then later on in the article:

Would al Shabaab help or hinder such efforts? Back in 2006, the ICU was seen by aid experts as a relatively accountable partner in handling the practicalities of aid flows, at least in contrast to a chaotic and corrupt situation under the warlords who held sway before them. Analysts say it is possible the militia may want to emulate the Union in its handling of humanitarian shipments. But whatever approach it takes to aid, al Shabaab's harsh justice may make some donors think twice before funding aid purchases. "It would be a real dilemma for the donors," said Shinn.

The entire article is accessible here. Image: People walk outside the Sahafi hotel where two foreigners were kidnapped in Somalia's capital Mogadishu July 14, 2009. Somali gunmen stormed into a Mogadishu hotel on Tuesday and kidnapped two French security consultants working for the government, witnesses and officials said. REUTERS/Omar Faruk

Obama Administration's diplomatic approach to Somalia

I am included in Reuters' March 20th article, "al-Qaeda's Somalia allies on the defensive, for now." I told Reuters' William Maclean, "The new administration in Washington is not inclined to go the military route in Somalia." The complete text of the article is available on Reuters' website.

Weighing in on endorsement of Somalia's new prime minister

On Saturday, Somalia's parliament endorsed the appointment of Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke as prime minister of a new unity government. I spoke to Reuters about this new development. Here's an excerpt from the article that includes my analysis: "I am more optimistic about the future of Somalia than I have been in a number of years," Professor David Shinn, an Africa expert at George Washington University, told Reuters. "The selection of a PM from the large Darod clan is a wise choice to balance President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed's Hawiye clan connection," he said, adding that Sharmarke's distinguished family and diaspora connections would also be advantages. UPDATE: Al Jazeera English also ran a story based on the the Reuters piece.