South Sudan's Latest Crisis: Deja Vu

 World Politics Review published on 20 June 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan's Latest Crisis Is Following a Familiar Script" by Lesley Anne Warner.

The fragile peace established in South Sudan in 2018 may be unraveling.  South Sudan is returning to form: erosion of power sharing, military fragmentation, and an apparent succession crisis.  

Fighting Resumes in South Sudan

 The Associated Press published on 24 March 2022 an article titled "Fighting Resumes in South Sudan, Threatens Peace Agreement" by Deng Machol.

New fighting broke out between rival factions in South Sudan, threatening a fragile peace agreement between President Salva Kiir and his rival Vice President Riek Machar.  

South Sudan's Deteriorating Finances

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 6 October 2021 a paper titled "Oil or Nothing: Dealing with South Sudan's Bleeding Finances."  

South Sudan's state finances are derailing it from the already fraught path to peace and stability after a brutal civil war.  The regimes slush-fund approach to governance and winner-take-all politics helps explain why so much went wrong so quickly after independence in 2011.  Much of the problem has been caused by the government's mishandling of its oil wealth.  

Conflict in South Sudan's Equatoria Region

 The US Institute of Peace published in April 2021 a study titled "Conflict and Crisis in South Sudan's Equatoria" by Alan Boswell, International Crisis Group.  

The report examines the conflict in Equatoria region of South Sudan.  It concludes the crisis in Equatoria will likely become entrenched if peace talks do not gain momentum and as resentments from abusive counterinsurgency campaigns mount and disillusionment with the troubled peace process grows.  

Sudan Oral History: President Nimeiry Overthrown While Visiting President Reagan

The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training just posted an oral history titled "When the Sudanese Autocrat Met President Reagan and Lost His Job" with William Pierce, U.S. embassy Khartoum political officer at the time.

This is a first hand account of the overthrow in 1985 of Sudanese President Gaafar Nimeiry while he was in the United States on a visit with President Ronald Reagan. William Pierce offers background to this development.

South Sudan Peace Process: The Politics of Delay

The Conflict Research Programme at the London School of Economics and Political Science published on 2 December 2019 a paper titled "South Sudan: The Politics of Delay" by Alex de Waal, Alan Boswell, David Deng, Rachel Ibreck, Matthew Benson and Jan Pospisil.

The authors conclude that the single most important concern during the current 100 day delay in the peace process is maintaining the ceasefire in South Sudan; a slow political process is far preferable to a return to war. A close second is maintaining forward motion in addressing the governance issues facing the country; continued discussion is better than a lurch into authoritarianism. The 100 day delay should be seen by international policy makers as an opportunity for advancing consultation and strengthening action towards a peace agenda.

South Sudan: New Generation of Leaders Needed

Foreign Policy published on 14 June 2019 a commentary titled "The Old Guard Are Killing the World's Youngest Country" by Zach Vertin.

The author argues that it will take a new generation of young leaders to prevail in South Sudan before it can become a successful state.

Sudan and South Sudan: Violence Trajectories

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in March 2019 a study titled "Sudan and South Sudan: Violence Trajectories after Peace Agreements" by Julia Bello-Schunemann, senior researcher at ISS.

Sudan and South Sudan are among the African countries to have experienced the highest number of conflict fatalities between 2011 and 2017. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement didn't result in fundamental changes to Sudan's political order. Instead, it reinforced a pattern of political violence in which Khartoum crushes all political opposition with force. The 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan that called for a unity government to be followed by elections in a winner-takes-all context compounded incentives for political violence.

South Sudan: The Perils of Payroll Peace

UK Aid and the London School of Economics and Political Science published in March 2019 a paper titled "South Sudan: The Perils of Payroll Peace."

Payroll peace is the practice of putting large numbers of soldiers and civil servants on the state payroll as an incentive for them, and the belligerent parties, to accept a peace agreement. This has become standard practice in South Sudan. The paper argues that at best it is corruption, at worst it is violently explosive.

South Sudan: A Violent Kleptocracy

The Enough Project published in February 2019 a report titled "A Hijacked State: Violent Kleptocracy in South Sudan" by Brian Adeba and the Enough Project team.

The report outlines the argument for why governance in South Sudan has evolved into a system of violent kleptocracy, and how for lasting peace to have a chance in South Sudan it is critical that policies focus on exposing, undermining, and ultimately dismantling that violent kleptocratic governing system.

China and South Sudan's Oil

The Diplomat posted on 11 February 2019 an article titled "How China Came to Dominate South Sudan's Oil" by Austin Bodetti.

The author reviews the background of China's entry into the Sudanese oil market and discusses the pluses and minuses of holding on for the long term in South Sudan as delicate peace negotiations continue.

Time Is Running Out for South Sudan's Peace Deal

World Politics Review published on 7 January 2019 an analysis titled "Is Time Already Running Out for South Sudan's New Peace Deal?" by John Hursh, U.S. Naval War College.

The South Sudan peace agreement calls for a transitional government to assume power in May 2019 before national elections three years later. Already behind schedule, an unfinished or partially implemented peace deal raises serious risk of a return to conflict.

How Arms from China and Other Countries Fuel South Sudan's Civil War

The London-based Conflict Armament Research (CAR) organization published in November 2018 a major report titled "Weapon Supplies into South Sudan's Civil War: Regional Re-transfers and International Intermediaries."

While weapons originated in numerous countries, China accounts for 37 percent of the weapons and more than 99 percent of the ammunition circulating in South Sudan since 2014 as documented by the CAR. The CAR found no evidence that China supplied directly or indirectly weapons or ammunition to the SPLA since May 2014.

For a summary of the report, see an article in Foreign Policy dated 29 November 2018 titled "How European and Chinese Arms Diverted to South Sudan Fueled Its Civil War" by Robbie Gramer.

Photo Journalist Account of Child Soldiers in South Sudan

The Pulitzer Center published on 30 October 2018 a photo journalist account titled "Child Soldiers of South Sudan" by Andreea Campeanu.

The article documents a group of child soldiers among 900 released from the armed forces in South Sudan in 2018. About 19,000 child soldiers are still serving in armed forces across South Sudan.

Micro Study on Power in a South Sudanese Village

The Rift Valley Institute published in 2018 a micro study titled "Wartime Trade and Reshaping of Power in South Sudan: Learning from the Market of Mayen Rual" by Naomi Pendle, London School of Economics, and Chirrilo Madut Anei, South Sudanese researcher.

This study looks at the capture and co-opting of wartime trade in the village of Mayen Rual and the contemporary conflict in the village of Nyinakook in former Warrap state.

Governance in a South Sudan State during Famine and War

The Rift Valley Institute recently published a 52-page study titled "Politics, Power and Chiefship in Famine and War: A Study of the Former Northern Bahr el-Ghazal State, South Sudan" by Nicki Kindersley, Cambridge University.

The study investigates how customary authorities on South Sudan's border with southern Darfur have managed repeated wars and famines since the 1960s, both for the communities that they claim to represent and for their own survival and benefit.

Envisioning a Stable South Sudan

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington published on 29 May 2018 a series of visions by scholars, security practitioners, and civil society leaders on strategic issues South Sudan must address if it is to make a transition from its current state of disarray to a more stable future.


The series includes the following visions:

--Three Trajectories Facing South Sudan by Luka Kuol.
--Context and the Limits of International Engagement in Realizing Durable Stability in South Sudan by Lauren Hutton.
--Taming the Dominant Gun Class in South Sudan by Majak D'Agoot.
--Durable Stability in South Sudan: What Are the Prerequisites? by Phillip Kasaija Apuuli.
--Security Sector Stabilization: A Prerequisite for Political Stability in South Sudan by Remember Miamingi.
--Confronting the Challenges of South Sudan's Security Sector: A Practitioner Perspective by Kuol Deim Kuol.
--Blurring the Lines: Ethnicity, Governance, and Stability in South Sudan by Lauren Hutton.
--The Rule of Law and the Role of Customary Courts in Stabilizing South Sudan by Godfrey Musila.
--Navigating the Competing Interests of Regional Actors in South Sudan by Luka Kuol.

South Sudan and Role of Customary Authority in Conflict

The Rift Valley Institute published in 2018 a study titled "Politics, Power and Chiefship in Famine and War: A Study of the Former Northern Bahr el-Ghazal State, South Sudan" by Nicki Kindersley.

Former Northern Bahr el Ghazal State has been deeply affected by and embedded in South Sudan's civil war. This study looks at how customary authorities on South Sudan's border with southern Darfur have managed repeated wars and famines since the 1960s. It sets out chiefs' and elders' experience of negotiating with successive states, rebel movements and local militias during times of famine, flight and fighting. It concludes that chiefs and other customary authorities are a fundamental part of the political-military structures of power in South Sudan.

Time To Get Tough with Warring Faction Leaders in South Sudan

African Arguments posted on 12 March 2018 a commentary titled "South Sudan: Buying Off Elites To Stop Fighting Won't Work. Here Is What Might" by Daniel Akech Thiong, an independent consultant dealing with South Sudan.

The author argues that you cannot buy off warring elites in South Sudan. He calls for "emptying the fuel tank" by removing the rewards of war. This may include an arms embargo, asset freezes, and a travel ban.

China's Challenges in South Sudan

Quartz Africa posted on 21 November 2017 an account titled "There's At Least One Place in Africa Where China's 'Win Win' Diplomacy Is Failing" by Lily Kuo.

Writing from Juba, the author concludes that China's involvement in South Sudan has always been about business. South Sudan may be the starkest example of when China's "win-win" diplomacy does not work. Many private Chinese businesses and investors have left over the past year as the prospect of peace appears more remote.