Ethiopian Politics after the 2026 National Elections

 Abren, a group of Ethiopian Americans in the Washington area, posted on 18 June 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Road Ahead: Politics After the 2026 Election."

This commentary provides an overview of the national elections that took place in Ethiopia earlier this month.  It assumes a landslide victory for Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party but highlights several problems that occurred during the elections.  Abren predicts the acceleration of market liberalization and a continuing effort by the government to obtain access to the sea.  

Ethiopia's Economic Reform Program Faces Serious Challenges

 Foreign Policy posted n 19 December 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Precarious Economic Reforms" by Liam Taylor, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.  

The author argues that Ethiopia's economic reform package is "fraught with jeopardy."  Political instability and a history of foreign investors who have been burned in Ethiopia does not bode well for the program.  

The Role of the Economic Reform Agenda in Sudan's Crisis

African Arguments published on 29 September 2023 a commentary titled "Conditioned to Fail: Donor and Multilateral Engagement in Post-Revolution Sudan" by Muez Ali, Muzan Alneel, and Mayada Hassanain. 

The authors put much of the blame for the military coup d'état in Sudan on the failure of the donor community and international financial institutions to respond appropriately to the growing crisis.

Is US Really Ready to Invest $5 Billion in Ethiopia?

The Financial Times published on 5 March 2020 an article titled "US Ready to Back Ethiopian Reform with $5bn Investment" by David Pilling.

Ethiopia's minister of finance told the Financial Times that the United States is ready to invest $5 billion in Ethiopia through its newly created International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) in an effort to support private sector reform and counter China's influence in the country. Deployment of the funds from IDFC depends on Ethiopia's successful implementation of certain reform measures. The chief executive officer of the IDFC told the Financial Times that if these reforms are implemented, Ethiopia would be well positioned for a "significant" IDFC commitment that would encourage "billions" in financing from the American private sector.

It is time for a reality check. First, funding from the IDFC is predicated on Ethiopian implementation of unspecified reforms. These reforms may or may not occur. Second, the American private sector will have to come up with most of this $5 billion investment, not the IDFC. The private sector will engage in Ethiopia only when it believes it can make a profit. It is too early to determine what projects in Ethiopia are seen as sufficiently profitable to attract $5 billion in investment. Third, the IDFC, which replaces the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation, is designed to support American investment globally, not just in Africa and certainly not just in Ethiopia, which will be competing with the rest of the world for support from the IDFC.

While the IDFC is an important new initiative that has the potential to encourage and support increasing American investment in Africa and globally, it is also important to be realistic about the results in any particular country.

Sudan-US Engagement Recommendations

The Atlantic Council published in March 2018 an issue brief titled "Sudan: Politics, Engagement, and Reform" by Johnnie Carson and Zach Vertin.

In an effort to improve relations between Sudan and the United States, the paper makes a series of recommendations to the government of Sudan and, if implemented, indicates the appropriate response from the United States.