AidData published in March 2025 an analysis titled "Into the Breach: Will China Step Up as the U.S. Retreats from Global Development?" by Samantha Custer, Bryan Burgess, and Narayani Sritharan.
AidData concluded that Beijing is unlikely to fully step into the breach by mimicking America's historical role as the largest aid supplier in sectors such as health, governance, and humanitarian assistance. China might approach the US dismantlement of USAID by doubling down on three existing lines of engagement: a public-private focus on a "Health Silk Road," aid-like training and capacity building of civilian government officials and security services, and China-led leadership of South-South cooperation related to emergencies and conflict.
