China Increases African Agency vis-a-vis the West

 African Arguments posted on 13 August 2026 a commentary titled "The Beijing of It All: Africa's Development Terms Are No Longer Written in Washington or Brussels" by Wanjiku Wanjohi.

Political conditionality associated with Western aid is giving way to a new framework established by China.  China describes its interaction as a partnership based on non-interference and rapid delivery of development projects.  As a result, Africa now has meaningful alternatives and greater negotiating power.

Comment:  While Chinese loans and assistance do not come with the baggage of political conditionality, they do have economic conditionality.  For example, Chinese loans and projects must be implemented by Chinese companies, usually state-owned ones.  

Competing Transport Corridors for Africa's Critical Minerals

 Africa at LSE published on 15 April 2026 a paper titled "Critical Mineral Transport Infrastructure Is the Latest Theater of Geopolitical Competition in Africa" by Stephen Nduvi.  

Rehabilitation of the Chinese-funded Tanzania-Zambia railway is competing with the Western-funded Lobito Corridor (Angola, DRC and Zambia) infrastructure project to transport critical minerals to ports on the Atlantic or Indian Oceans.  The big challenge for African countries is converting corridor competition into sustainable development outcomes.

Beijing Shows Different Look in Africa Compared to US

 China-Africa Security Radar posted on 2 April 2026 a commentary titled "Beijing Capitalizes on Washington's Aggression" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.  

China's Vice President Han Zheng visited Kenya, South Africa, and Seychelles in March.  The author argues the visit was timed in the context of Washington's capture of the Venezuelan president and the US/Israeli war against Iran.  

Both developments demonstrated US willingness to deploy military power unilaterally and with little deference to international law.  This juxtaposition of events permitted Han Zheng to underscore to an African audience China's message of South-South solidarity, sovereign equality, and development partnership.   

China Remains Engaged in South Sudan in the Face of Adversity

 Channel News Asia published on 24 February 2026 an article titled "China Expands Economic Footprint in Turbulent South Sudan" by Patrick Oyet.

The article highlights China's continuing engagement in various sectors in South Sudan even as the country edges toward another civil war.

Comment:  The article did not mention that the China National Petroleum Corporation informed Sudan and South Sudan in December 2025 that it is dissolving its long-standing partnership with Sudan's oil sector.  See the Sudan Tribune's article dated 10 December 2025 titled "China's Exit from Sudan Oil Fields Deepens Crisis for War-ravaged Economy."

Nigeria Foresees Closer Ties with China in 2026

 Nigeria's Punch published on 1 January 2026 an article titled "Nigeria Eyes Deeper China Ties Entering 2026" by Justice Okamgba.

China's ties with Nigeria strengthened in 2025 and are expected to improve even more in 2026 as Nigeria looks for closer economic cooperation.

Interview on Multipolarity and US Africa Policy

 The international press agency Pressenza published on 15 November 2025 my interview titled "Obama, Biden and Trump: Changing U.S. Policy towards Africa" moderated by Kester Kenn Klomegah.  

The interview focused on the impact in Africa of a multipolar world and the approach towards Africa of President Obama, Biden, and Trump.  

Modern Diplomacy posted the same interview on 16 November 2025.

Seychelles, Election, India, and China

 Strategic Horizons included in its Fall 2025 issue an article titled "Seychelles at a Crossroads: Democracy, Development, and the Geopolitical Chessboard" by Achala Gunasekara-Rockwell.  

The primary focus of the article is the internal situation in Seychelles and the 2025 presidential elections that occurred after publication.  There was no outright winner in the election as a candidate must win more than 50 percent of the vote.  Opposition candidate Patrick Herminie received 48.8 percent of the vote while the incumbent, Wavel Ramkalawan, garnered 46.4 percent.  A runoff election will take place from October 9-11.  

A subtheme in the article is the role of Seychelles in great power competition, especially involving China and India.  A small state like Seychelles, strategically located in the Indian Ocean, must navigate the shifting tectonics of great power competition.  The author concludes that Seychelles "ability to assert its sovereignty while deftly managing the competing pressures of China and India is a masterclass in small-state agency.  Seychelles' refusal to allow itself to become a pawn in Beijing's Maritime Silk Road strategy or New Delhi's counterbalancing efforts speaks to its determination to prioritize national interests over external agendas."

Podcast on Background and Future Impact of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 26 September 2025 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia's Grand and Contested Dam" with Murithi Mutiga and Alan Boswell, both with the ICG.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the largest in Africa and was financed mostly by Ethiopians.  Egypt perceived the dam as a threat to its downstream water supply while Ethiopia saw it as an essential hydropower development project.  Sudan was caught in the middle, seeing both potential benefits and problems, but has recently sided with Egypt.  

Now that the dam is completed, Egypt's major concern as a downstream country is low water flow during successive years of drought in the Nile Basin.  Reduction of tension between Ethiopia and Egypt requires trust building.  In the meantime, there is the possibility of Egyptian proxy activity aimed at Ethiopia.  

China's Economic Influence in Africa

 The IE China Observatory and Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in collaboration with Afrobarometer and the IE Africa Program published in September 2025 a report titled "China's Economic Influence in Africa: A Data Driven Analysis."

The report is based on large-scale survey data from 27 African countries and looks at how ordinary citizens across Africa perceive Chinese economic influence. The report concludes that China's impact is neither uniform nor static.  The findings vary by country, region, demographic, and socioeconomic status.  

China's Approach to Counterterrorism in Africa

 The CTC Sentinel published in its August 2025 issue an article titled "Understanding China's New Counterterrorism Ambitions in Africa" by Jason Warner.

The author argues that despite ostensible rationales related to self-defense of economic interests and solidarity with African states, at its core, Beijing's primary motivations for entering the African counterterrorism space are to diversify its means of influence in Africa beyond its historical economics first approach.

Beijing likely believes it has a new genre of counterterrorism assistance--less kinetic, more economic, and rooted in equitable partnerships--that represents a fundamentally new and productive means of gaining influence in Africa.  

China Sees Economic Development as Solution to Horn of Africa Conflicts

 The South China Morning Post published on 4 August 2025 an article titled "China Pledges Support for Peaceful Development in Horn of Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China's Horn of Africa special envoy Xue Bing told participants at the 3rd Horn of Africa Conference on Peace and Development held in Uganda that Beijing promotes economic development as a solution to resolving conflict in the region.  

China's Third Horn of Africa Conference on Peace and Development

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 3 August 2025 an article titled "China in the Horn of Africa."

Uganda hosted on 29 August the 3rd Conference on Peace and Development with attendance by officials from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and China's Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Xue Bing.  China provided its analysis of the Horn of Africa's security challenges. 

Comment:  As with the previous two conferences, this appears to have been a talk shop with no tangible programs agreed upon for actually resolving conflict in the Horn of Africa.  

China's Think Tank Diplomacy in Africa

 India's Observer Research Foundation published on 9 July 2025 an analysis titled "China's Think Tank Diplomacy in Africa" by Samir Bhattacharya.

China launched the China-Africa Think Tanks Forum (CATTF) in 2011, convening delegates from 27 African countries.  CATTF serves as a permanent platform for dialogue and exchange between Chinese and African think tanks.  

Xi Jinping has significantly expanded this initiative.  Most of its activities are carefully orchestrated by China's state apparatus.  Beijing's goal is to project China's world view, governance model, and developmental practices.  

China's Development First Approach Hits Setbacks in South Sudan

 The China-Africa Security Radar posted on 30 June 2025 an analysis titled "Strategic Illusions: How China's Development-first Approach Undermines Its Security Aims in South Sudan" by Felix Brender. 

South Sudan tests the boundaries of Beijing's doctrine that development is the key to peace and political stability.  South Sudan demonstrates why development and security cannot be separated.

Ethiopian Government Paper Praises Relations with China

 The government-sponsored Ethiopian Herald published on 6 May 2025 an article titled "The Deepening Strategic Relations between Ethiopia, China."

The article summarizes recent cooperation between China and Ethiopia in the fields of financing, infrastructure, investment, trade, and space.  It concludes that "the overall trajectory of Ethiopia-China relations remains positive, characterized by mutual benefits and shared aspirations for economic development and modernization."  It suggests that the China-Ethiopia "partnership serves as a model for South-South cooperation."

Parliamentary Oversight of Chinese Loans to Ghana and Nigeria

 The Westminster Foundation for Democracy published in 2025 a study titled "Parliamentary Oversight and Chinese Loans in Africa: The Case of Ghana and Nigeria" by Abdul-Gafar Tobi Oshodi, Lagos State University.

The study identifies party-centered responses in parliament, executive push, and dependence on Chinese development finance as the challenges of parliamentary oversight.  It concludes that strengthening parliamentary oversight of Chinese loans will require the involvement of non-state actors.  

Is US-China Cooperation in Africa Possible?

 The Asia Society Policy Institute posted this week a commentary titled "Avoiding Conflicts and Ensuring U.S.-China Cooperation in Africa: An African Perspective" by Abdeta Beyene, Centre for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation in Addis Ababa.

The author argues that the United States and China have the potential to move beyond competition and instead foster meaningful cooperation in Africa.  He suggests a number of ways that China-US collaboration could work to the benefit of Africa.

Comment:  The author is correct that there is the potential for US-China cooperation in Africa and a number of years ago there actually was some modest cooperation.  The prospect for US-China cooperation in Africa is dependent, however, on the existing Sino-American bilateral relationship, which has been severely strained in recent years.  Until there is significant improvement in the China-US bilateral relationship, there is almost no prospect for collaboration in Africa.   

Elon Musk Shuts Down Millennium Challenge Corporation

 Politico published on 23 April 2025 an article titled "DOGE Is Shutting Down Foreign Aid Agency Millennium Challenge Corporation" by Ben Johansen.

The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) is offering voluntary early retirement or deferred resignations to its 320 employees and planning to terminate grants to developing countries.  MCC, which was established by the Bush administration and is independent of the State Department, currently has over $5.4 billion in active grants to 20 lower income countries, many in Africa.  All MCC operations are expected to end within 90 days.  

Comment:  One more ill-conceived decision by the Trump administration.

USAID: May It Rest in Peace

 The Diplomatic Courier published on 23 April 2025 a commentary titled "In Memoriam: USAID (1948-2025)" by Steven E. Hendrix, former senior USAID official.

USAID died quietly in February 2025 undone by political bureaucratic suffocation and homicidal strategic confusion.  What follows the death of USAID will be repackaged into State Department public diplomacy toolkits or crisis response units. Private contractors will fill the void.  Multilateral organizations will pick up the slack.  But in death USAID leaves behind a legacy of people trained, systems built, and crises averted.  

Washington Post Editorial on Saving the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act

 The Washington Post published in its hard copy edition on 17 April 2025 an editorial titled "Save America's Great Link to Africa."

America's key trade agreement for Africa, the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), is due to expire in September this year unless Congress votes for another extension. The program's future is uncertain because the Trump administration prefers bilateral trade deals over multinational agreements such as AGOA. The editorial makes the case for renewing AGOA.