Financing Terrorist Organizations in Somalia

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 6 August 2026 an analysis titled "Countering Terrorism Financing in East Africa" by Daisy Muibu and Nicole Mazurova.

Al-Shabaab in Somalia has established a sophisticated revenue-generation capacity that includes criminal activities, illicit trade, smuggling, and money laundering.  Al-Shahaab obtains annual revenue of up to $200 million annually.  The Islamic State in Somalia generates between $100,000 and $360,000 monthly through extortion and illicit taxation.  

Defeating these terrorist organizations will require degrading their revenue generation capacities through strengthened national and regional coordination.  

Somalia/Somaliland: Text of US AFRICOM Commander's Interview

 This is the full text of the interview by Omar Faruk Osman, Secretary-General of the National Union of Somali Journalists, with General Dagvin R.M. Anderson, the Commander of U.S. Africa Command in Mogadishu and posted on 31 July 2026.

Most of the interview focuses on US-Somali cooperation in combatting al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia.  This is the interview where General Anderson also said, "there are no plans to build a base in Somaliland" and "U.S. policy is, and remains, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia.  That has not changed."   

Russian Convoy Attacked in Northern Mali

 France 24 posted on 9 July 2026 an article titled "Mali Rebels Attack Convoy of Russian Reinforcements Headed to Besieged Military Camp."

Tuareg separatists and their jihadi allies attacked on 9 July a convoy of Russian paramilitaries from the Africa Corps and Malian soldiers as they were moving to Anefis in northern Mali.  The report provides no details on casualties.  

The Associated Press posted on 10 July 2026 an article titled "Mali's Military Says It's Broken a Rebel Blockade Around a Strategic Northern Base."

After heavy fighting, the convoy reached Anefis between the rebel-controlled town of Kidal and Gao to the south, which is under the control of the military government.

Somalia, Al-Shabaab, and the Future

 The International Crisis Group published on 30 June 2026 an analysis titled "New Chapter, Same Stalemate: Somalia's War with Al-Shabaab."

This analysis describes the ebb and flow of al-Shabaab's war with the Somali government since 2022.  It concludes that while Mogadishu faces several big challenges, it retains the military capability, in terms of personnel and resources, to hold the line, provided that external support does not abruptly disappear.

Meanwhile, despite al-Shabaab's pragmatic shifts in its approach to ruling areas under its control, its unpopularity among those it governs remains a roadblock for its attempts to supplant the Somali government.  

With neither side able to defeat the other, the war in Somalia is fundamentally at a stalemate with no end in sight.

Russia's Most Capable Drone Spotted in Mali

 Military Africa published on 19 June 2026 an article titled "Orion Drone Sighted over Bamako as Russia's Air War in Mali Deepens" by Ekene Lionel.  

Russia's advanced Orion drone has been sighted flying over Bamako, Mali's capital.  Its most capable, unmanned strike platform, it suggests Russia is stepping up its battle against jihadi groups in Mali.  

Russia's Drone War in Mali

 Military Africa published on 4 June 2026 an article titled "Russian Africa Corps Deploys FPV Kamikaze Drones in Mali--But the Sky Is Already Contested."

Russia's Africa Corps is deploying First-Person View (FPV) kamikaze drones in Mali.  They are compact, low-cost suicide drones that have become the defining weapon of modern asymmetric warfare.  The battlefield in Mali has changed as insurgent groups first began using FPV drones and the Africa Corps is scrambling to keep up.  

US Counterterrorism Operations in Africa

 Eurasia Review published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "The Head of US Africa Command Testifies before Congress on American Counter-Terrorism Operations in Africa--Analysis" by Daniel Volman, director of the Africa Security Research Project in Washington.

This is a wide-ranging discussion of US efforts to counter terrorism in Africa.  It includes testimony in May before Congress by Dagvin Anderson, Commander of the U.S. Africa Command, and additional comments by other Trump administration officials.  The focus is on terrorist threats in Nigeria, the Sahel, and Somalia.  

The Limits of Russia's Africa Corps

 The Soufan Center, a New York-based nonprofit organization, published on 12 May 2026 a commentary titled "The Limits of Russia's Africa Corps: Mali and the JNIM-FLA Offensive."

Coordinated attacks by al-Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Musliman (JNIM), and the Tuareg-dominated separatists, the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), have highlighted the limited capabilities of the Malian junta and its Russian mercenaries, the Africa Corps, to fend off the insurgency.

Russia's engagement in Mali also raises the question whether it has the resources to counter a genuine insurgency or if it is only in the country to ensure the survival of the military junta.  

Russian Troops Forced to Abandon Base in Northern Mali

 Africa News published on 1 May 2026 an article titled "Rebel Alliance Seizes Key Tessalit Military Camp in Northern Mali."

Tuareg separatists and jihadists have forced the evacuation of Tessalit military base near Mali's northern border with Algeria.  Troops from Russia's Africa Corps and Malian soldiers fled south.

Mali on the Edge; Russian Forces Retreat

 The Washington Post published on 30 April 2026 an article titled "Mali's Junta Asked Russians to Bring Order. Militants Just Stormed In" by Rachel Chason.

Mali's military junta turned to Russia to help in quelling an Islamist insurgency.  But in the five years since the arrival of Russian mercenaries with the Wagner Group and subsequently with the Africa Corps, the militants have gained strength, and Mali is now teetering on the edge of collapse.

Jihadist Attacks Threaten Russian Influence in Mali

 Reuters published on 29 April 2026 an article titled "Mali Turmoil Threatens Russian Push for Influence and Mineral Wealth in Africa" by Andrew Osborn and Anna Peverieri.

A series of reversals suffered by Mali's Moscow-backed military government has dented Russia's image and threatens its strategic and economic interests in Africa.  Mali's military junta's future is now in jeopardy and Russia's military presence in Mali is also on the line.  

Why Russia is Losing Africa's Sahel

 Foreign Affairs published on 25 March 2026 an article titled "Why Russia Is Losing the Sahel" by Frederic Wehrey and Andrew S. Weiss, both at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

As Russia confronts shortcomings in its own capacity and the complexities of an environment it never fully understood, its expansion into the Sahel is on the verge of stalling, if not unraveling entirely.  Moscow's initiatives should serve as a cautionary tale for other African states contemplating whether to accept Russian security assistance.  This is also an opportunity for the United States to return.  

China in Al-Qaeda's Crosshairs

 War on the Rocks published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "China Now Finds Itself in Al-Qaeda's Crosshairs" by Colin Clarke and Lucas Webber, both with the Soufan Center.

Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations in the Arabian Gulf and Africa are now including China as part of its enemy hierarchy due in large part to Beijing's treatment of the Muslim Uyghur population in Xinjiang Province.  

US Ramps Up Airstrikes in Somalia

 Semafor published on 2 February 2026 an article titled "View/Why US Airstrikes in Somalia Are Reaching Record Levels under Trump" by Tomi Oladipo.  

The second Trump administration has launched 144 airstrikes so far against al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia.  That is more than half the number during all of Trump's first term.  

Chinese Companies Face Brunt of Jihadi Attacks in Mali

 Agence France Presse published on 5 September 2025 an article titled "Chinese Firms Pay Price of Jihadist Strikes against Mali Junta."

Jihadis linked to al-Qaeda have targeted all foreign companies in Mali in an effort to force the military junta to accept sharia law.  Chinese operated gold and lithium operations have experienced the brunt of these attacks.  Jihadis have kidnapped at least 11 Chinese nationals.  

China's Approach to Counterterrorism in Africa

 The CTC Sentinel published in its August 2025 issue an article titled "Understanding China's New Counterterrorism Ambitions in Africa" by Jason Warner.

The author argues that despite ostensible rationales related to self-defense of economic interests and solidarity with African states, at its core, Beijing's primary motivations for entering the African counterterrorism space are to diversify its means of influence in Africa beyond its historical economics first approach.

Beijing likely believes it has a new genre of counterterrorism assistance--less kinetic, more economic, and rooted in equitable partnerships--that represents a fundamentally new and productive means of gaining influence in Africa.  

Somalia's State-building Program under Pressure

 The Economist published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Somalia's State-building Project Is in Tatters."

For the past 8 months local forces from the federal state of Puntland, backed with airstrikes by the US and UAE, have been waging an all-out and successful war against the Islamic State. On the other hand, the central government has been losing ground in its battle with al-Shabaab and relations between Mogadishu and the federal states have deteriorated.  

Russia Transitions Wagner Group to Africa Corps in Africa

 AEI's Critical Threats published on 12 June 2025 an analysis titled "Wagner Out, Africa Corps In" by Liam Karr and Kathryn Tyson.  

Russia's Wagner Group formally withdrew from Mali and transitioned the Russian military presence to the Africa Corps.  As the Wagner Group pulls out of Mali, al-Qaeda and Islamic State-affiliated insurgents are stronger than ever.  

Russia is also trying to transition from the Wagner Group to the Africa Corps in the Central African Republic.  Responsibility for Russian operations in Africa will now rest squarely with the Kremlin although Russian billionaire Gennady Timchenko may play a key role in the operations.  

Current Al-Shabaab Area of Operations in Somalia

 AEI's Critical Threats published on 10 June 2025 an analysis titled "Al Shabab's Area of Operation" by Kathryn Tyson.  

Since January 2025, al-Shabaab has reentered large swaths of territory in central Somalia which Somali security forces had retaken during a counterterrorism campaign in 2022.  

Houthi-al-Shabaab Cooperation in Red Sea Region

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 28 May 2025 an analysis titled "Expanding Al-Shabaab-Houthi Ties Escalate Security Threats to Red Sea Region."

Growing collaboration between al-Shabaab and the Houthis is enabling both militant groups and contributing to heightened maritjme and land-based threats on both sides of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.