Reuters published on 29 April 2026 an article titled "Mali Turmoil Threatens Russian Push for Influence and Mineral Wealth in Africa" by Andrew Osborn and Anna Peverieri.
A series of reversals suffered by Mali's Moscow-backed military government has dented Russia's image and threatens its strategic and economic interests in Africa. Mali's military junta's future is now in jeopardy and Russia's military presence in Mali is also on the line.
Foreign Affairs published on 25 March 2026 an article titled "Why Russia Is Losing the Sahel" by Frederic Wehrey and Andrew S. Weiss, both at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
As Russia confronts shortcomings in its own capacity and the complexities of an environment it never fully understood, its expansion into the Sahel is on the verge of stalling, if not unraveling entirely. Moscow's initiatives should serve as a cautionary tale for other African states contemplating whether to accept Russian security assistance. This is also an opportunity for the United States to return.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 26 February 2026 an article titled "Sahel" by Liam Karr and Zoe Sommer.
Russia plans to send 1,000 more Africa Corps soldiers to Mali in the coming months, increasing Russian forces there to 3,500. The Africa Corps may also send more troops to Niger. Current Russian forces in the Sahel have failed to degrade the growing jihadi insurgencies in the region.
War on the Rocks published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "China Now Finds Itself in Al-Qaeda's Crosshairs" by Colin Clarke and Lucas Webber, both with the Soufan Center.
Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations in the Arabian Gulf and Africa are now including China as part of its enemy hierarchy due in large part to Beijing's treatment of the Muslim Uyghur population in Xinjiang Province.
The Diplomat published on 20 November 2025 an article titled "China's Sahel Gamble Falters as Insurgencies Rage" by Robert Bociaga.
Chinese companies in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have become targets of global terrorism putting at risk China's investment in the Sahel region.
Agence France Presse published on 5 September 2025 an article titled "Chinese Firms Pay Price of Jihadist Strikes against Mali Junta."
Jihadis linked to al-Qaeda have targeted all foreign companies in Mali in an effort to force the military junta to accept sharia law. Chinese operated gold and lithium operations have experienced the brunt of these attacks. Jihadis have kidnapped at least 11 Chinese nationals.
The CTC Sentinel published in its July 2025 edition an analysis titled "The Escalation of U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia and the Role of Perceived Threats to the U.S. Homeland" by David Sterman.
In 2025, the United States significantly increased the pace of airstrikes against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab in Somalia. The rationale was a perceived heightened threat of jihadi activity in the homeland by one or both of these groups.
The CTC Sentinel published in December 2024 an analysis titled "Africa Corps: Has Russia Hit a Ceiling in Africa?" by Christopher Faulkner, Marcel Plichta, and Raphael Parens.
Russia's Africa Corps deployment in Africa's Sahel region has done little to curb jihadi violence. It is not even clear that Moscow has a Sahel strategy. Russia's recent setback in Syria will make success in the Sahel even more questionable. The Africa Corps is encountering significant challenges. In Niger and Burkina Faso, the Africa Corps looks more like a Praetorian Guard to keep military regime leaders in power.
The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats published on 31 July 2024 an analysis titled "Russia's Deadly Blunder in Mali" by Liam Karr.
Tuareg insurgents repelled Russian forces in Mali in the deadliest engagement since they arrived in 2021. Russia is unlikely to decrease its presence in Mali despite the loses because of the Kremlin's strategic interests in Mali and the wider Sahel.
War on the Rocks published on 3 June 2024 a commentary titled "Why Washington Failed in Niger" by Nathaniel Powell, Oxford Analytica.
Some 1,000 U.S. troops will complete their pullout from Niger at the request of the Nigerien government by 15 September. A small number of Russian troops has arrived as replacements for the U.S. troops. Rather than prioritizing security assistance in Africa, the author argues the United States would be better advised to fill shortfalls in humanitarian funding and providing better access to U.S. markets for the continent's agriculture.
World Politics Review published on 30 April 2024 a commentary titled "Geopolitical Competition Is Reshaping West Africa" by Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, Nigerian researcher.
As France and the United States lose influence and pull troops from Africa's Sahel region, several of these countries are pivoting increasingly to Russia and its Africa Corps for security assistance.
Comment: The biggest security threat in the region remains that from ISIS and al-Qaeda-affiliated groups. So far, Russia's security commitments to the region are too small to have any significant impact on countering jihadi organizations. While Russia is gaining influence in the Sahel, it may soon find that it is not able to stem jihadi activity, leaving these governments in a more difficult position than previously.
The Royal United Service Institute for Defence and Security Studies posted on 27 March 2024 a commentary titled "A Mixed Picture: How Mali Views the Wagner Group" by Antonio Giustozzi.
The Wagner Group continues to operate in Mali in spite of the death of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in Russia. The Wagner Group has done little to defeat jihadi groups in Mali and may even have presided over a deterioration in the security situation. On the other hand, it has kept the military regime in power.
The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 11 January 2024 an analysis titled "Russia Steps Up the Competition in Africa" by Raphael Parens.
The Kremlin is increasingly moving to compete directly with the West in Africa, especially in the Sahel region. But its ongoing war in Ukraine my limit these operations, given limited manpower reserves and the increasing attrition rate of its military and paramilitary leadership.
The Hill published on 23 October 2023 a commentary titled "As France Pulls Out of Africa, Will Russia Step In?" by Eliot Wilson.
A spate to military coups in Africa is forcing France to pull troops from the continent--1,500 by the end of the year from Niger, 5,000 out of Mali last summer, and 400 special forces from Burkina Faso this February. These countries will look for new allies to keep jihadis at bay and Russia's mercenary Wagner Group may be the organization of choice.
War on the Rocks published on 23 June 2023 an analysis titled "Jihadi Blowback: The Wagner Group's Hidden Downside" by Raphael Parens, Eurasia Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Jihadis in Africa increasingly see the Wagner Group and, by extension, Russia as the enemy. The Wagner Group may be sowing future jihadist activity on Russian soil because of its attacks on Sunni Muslims in Africa.
The International Crisis Group posted on 28 June 2023 a 50 minute podcast titled "Is This the End? Wagner in Russia, Ukraine and Africa" with Olga Oliker, Jean-Herve Jezequel, and Richard Gowan. The first 19 minutes of the podcast dealt with the Wagner Group in Russia and the Ukraine and the remainder of the podcast covered the Wagner Group's future in Mali and other African countries.
There are about 1,500 Wagner Group mercenaries in Mali. The government of Mali called for the departure of MINUSMA, the UN peacekeeping force, by the end of June with a six month period for the UN to remove its troops and equipment from the country. MINUSMA has been located primarily in urban centers in Mali. What happens after the UN force departs Mali? One possibility is that the Russian mercenary force will take over the bases evacuated by MINUSMA. Additional Wagner Group forces in Russia might redeploy to operations in Africa such as Mali, resulting in greater influence in African internal affairs by Moscow. This development could also have a major impact on the future of UN peacekeeping in Africa.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 11 May 2022 a study titled "Massacres, Executions, and Falsified Graves: The Wagner Group's Mounting Humanitarian Cost in Mali" by Catrina Doxsee and Jared Thompson.
Russia's mercenary Wagner Group staged evidence in Mali of alleged French atrocities. In fact, it is the Wagner Group that often conducts indiscriminate killing in the country.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 23 September 2021 a paper titled "Examining Extremism: Harakat al Shabaab al Mujihideen (al Shabaab)" by Jake Harrington and Jared Thompson.
This is an overview of al-Shabaab, its strategy and tactics, and its efforts to balance the often-competing goals of establishing an al-Shabaab-led government in Somalia and advancing the global al-Qaeda brand.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 10 November 2020 a report titled "Staving Off Violence around Somalia's Elections."
Somalia is in the throes of hurried preparations for parliamentary and presidential elections, which are slated for December 2020 and February 2021, respectively. Though the parties agreed to proceed with indirect voting, they are struggling to prepare the polls. ICG warns that pushing forward with elections without adequate preparation could be risky.
