An Egyptian View of Developments in Somalia

 The National Interest published on 9 October 2024 a commentary titled "Egypt in Somalia: Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick" by Mohamed Farid, member of the Egyptian Senate, and Mohamed Maher, Egyptian journalist based in the US.

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is scheduled to take over from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by January 2025.  Egypt is supplying weapons, equipment, and training to the Somali National Army.

The authors argue that Egypt's involvement in Somalia is driven by its interest in maintaining regional stability and countering al-Shabaab terrorism.  They acknowledge, however, that Egypt is concerned by Ethiopia's "expansionist policies" that "threaten Somali sovereignty."

Somalia: Status of Establishing Security

 The International Peace Institute published in October 2024 a report titled "ATMIS Transition and Post-ATMIS Security Arrangement in Somalia."

In April 2022, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) was reconfigured as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).  Its mandate was to degrade al-Shabaab, provide security to population centers, secure major supply routes, and develop Somali security forces.  The report identifies the challenges encountered and evaluates the progress made so far.

Drawdown of African Peacekeepers from Somalia Shelved

 The Economist published on 2 October 2023 an article titled "The Drawdown of African Peacekeepers from Somalia Has been Stalled."

Due to concerns that Somalia's army will not be able to hold territory now controlled by African Union peacekeepers, plans to withdraw 3,000 of the 18,000 strong force have been shelved.  The Somali National Army remains too disorganized and poorly equipped to keep al-Shabaab from occupying territory now held by AU peacekeepers.  

Somalia: A Review of 2022

 The Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute just published a report titled "State of Somalia 2022 Year in Review." 

The report documents key developments that shaped Somalia throughout 2022 and provides analysis to support peace and state building in the country.  

Podcast on US Security Engagement in Somalia

 The American Academy of Diplomacy posted a 40 minute podcast on Somalia with Thomas Waldhauser, commander of US Africa Command from 2016-2019, and Donald Yamamoto, US ambassador to Somalia from 2018-2021.

The general and the ambassador discuss the development and evolution of U.S. security engagement in Somalia in recent years.  

Evaluation of US Security Assistance in Somalia

 The Stimson Center published on 20 March 2023 an analysis titled "US Security Assistance to Somalia" by Elias Yousif.  

Between 2010 and 2020, the United States provided more than $500 million in direct security assistance to Somali forces and spent $2.5 billion on security assistance for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).  Despite recent Somali government successes on the battlefield, the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab organization has proven to be both adaptable and resilient.  

Sustaining Gains against Al-Shabaab in Somalia

 The International Crisis Group published on 21 March 2023 an analysis titled "Sustaining Gains in Somalia's Offensive against Al-Shabaab."

The analysis discusses gains made by the government of Somalia against al-Shabaab and steps it should take to reestablish a presence in regions that al-Shabaab controlled for a number of years.  

Somali Counterterrorism: Learning from Past Mistakes

 CTC Sentinel's November/December edition contains an extensive analysis titled "The 2022 Somali Offensive Against Al-Shabaab: Making Enduring Gains Will Require Learning from Previous Failures" by Samira Gaid.  

The experience of the last 15-plus years of counterinsurgency suggests that the gains may only be fleeting unless Somalia takes full ownership of the fight, focuses on winning hearts and minds, receives and coordinates continued U.S. and partner support, makes significant progress in building up its military, addresses the clan rivalries that al-Shabaab has been adept in exploiting, and implements a comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy that unifies stakeholders.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab Facing Stiffer Resistance

 The Washington Post published on 14 December 2022 an article titled "Uprising by Somali Clans Puts al-Qaeda-linked Militants on the Defensive" by Katharine Houreld.  

Somali clan militias reportedly are engaging the al-Shabaab terrorist group in a more significant manner than they have in the past.  This has resulted in a setback, perhaps only temporary, for al-Shabaab.  

Al-Shabaab Threatens Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 9 September 2022 a commentary titled "Al-Shabaab: The Latest Addition to Ethiopia's Woes" by Muktar Ismail, a disaster prevention specialist.

Al-Shabaab forces in Somalia launched an attack inside Ethiopia in late July.  Al-Shabaab may have attacked on this occasion because it perceives Ethiopian security forces have been weakened by internal conflict.  Although Ethiopia apparently defeated this al-Shabaab attack, there are concerns there will be more incursions.  

Large Al-Shabaab Force Enters Ethiopia

 Ethiopia's The Reporter published on 30 July 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia's Impregnability Ends, Al-Shabaab Remains a Threat" by Ashenafi Endale.

On 20 July, a large al-Shabaab force from Somalia entered Ethiopia for the first time in many years, surprising Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF).  While the ENDF seems to have prevented al-Shabaab from its goal of setting up a base in Bale in Oromia, the attack is a reminder that al-Shabaab remains s serious threat to Ethiopian security.  

Is Al-Shabaab Ready for Dialogue?

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 21 June 2022 a commentary titled "Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia."

The International Crisis Group, acknowledging the failure of past efforts, argues that now is the time for Somalia's new government to look into what room there might be for dialogue with al-Shabaab.

Comment:  While political dialogue is usually a positive step, especially when juxtaposed against long-standing and seemingly endless conflict, the evidence that al-Shabaab is ready for meaningful dialogue with the government of Somalia is exceedingly weak.  Al-Shabaab seems interested in dialogue only if it results in 100 percent control of Somalia (and perhaps surrounding regions) by al-Shabaab.   

African Union Transition in Somalia

 The Conversation published on 19 April 2022 a commentary titled "Somalia Is Still Fragile: What the New African Union Mission Can Do to Help Stabilize It" by Hassan Khannanje, Wayne State University.  

On 1 April 2022, AMISOM ended its 15-year operation and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) came into being.  The author argues the new AU mission will need to adopt people-centered interventions that strengthen socio-political institutions and build local legitimacy.  These two aspects are critical for a successful transition.  

New African Union Mission for Somalia

 The Associated Press published on 1 April 2022 an article titled "UN Authorizes New AU Mission in Somalia to Combat Extremists" by Edith M. Lederer.

The UN Security Council voted unanimously to endorse the African Union's new transitional mission in Somalia to counter the al-Shabaab and Islamic State terrorist organizations.  As a result, AMISOM comes to an end and the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) begins.  

Somalia: Replacement for the African Union Mission

 The IPI Global Observatory published on 27 January 2022 an analysis titled "New Name, but Little Sign of Change: The Revised Agreement on the African Union Mission in Somalia" by Colin Robinson, Obuda University in Budapest.  

This is a clear and useful explanation of the new agreement that will replace the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).  It will become known as the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and is  mandated to support the objectives and priorities of the Somali Transition Plan.  The new ATMIS is supposed to hand over security responsibilities to the Somali National Army by December 31, 2023.

Supporting Security in Somalia

 The Royal United Services Institute published on 8 March 2022 an analysis titled "Taking Stock in Somalia" by Michael Jones.

It discusses United Kingdom support for the Somali Transition Plan, a phased transfer of security responsibilities to Somali national forces by 2023.  

An Air Force for Somalia?

 Air Force Magazine published on 27 January 2022 an article titled "Somalia Hopes to Reconstitute Its Air Force with Renewed US Partnership" by Abraham Mahshie.

Somalia reestablished its Air Force in 2015, although it has no pilots or planes.  It hopes to rebuild with US help.

Comment:  Except for humanitarian needs and disaster relief, an Air Force would seem to be a low priority for Somalia.  

Reforming the AU Mission in Somalia

 The International Crisis Group published on 15 November 2021 a briefing titled "Reforming the AU Mission in Somalia."

The African Union Mission in Somalia's UN mandate is nearing its end.  AMISOM's withdrawal could allow Islamist al-Shabaab insurgents to take over the country.  A mandate extension would allow Somalia, donors, and partners to agree on a reconfiguration and funding.  

Kenya-Somalia Ties after UN Court Decision

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 15 October 2021 an analysis titled "UN Court Decision a Fresh Test for Kenya-Somalia Ties" by Meron Elias.

An ICG expert discusses the potential impact on Kenya-Somalia relations of the recent International Court of Justice decision that upheld Somalia's claims of a long-running maritime border dispute between the two countries.  

An Update on Somalia's Al-Shabaab

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 23 September 2021 a paper titled "Examining Extremism: Harakat al Shabaab al Mujihideen (al Shabaab)" by Jake Harrington and Jared Thompson. 

This is an overview of al-Shabaab, its strategy and tactics, and its efforts to balance the often-competing goals of  establishing an al-Shabaab-led government in Somalia and advancing the global al-Qaeda brand.