State of Somalia in 2025

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in July 2026 a report titled "State of Somalia 2025."

The report reviews the major political, security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and regional developments that shaped Somalia in 2025.  Somalia recorded notable gains in international diplomacy, institutional development, regional integration, and state visibility.  It also experienced persistent political polarization, federal-state tensions, humanitarian vulnerability, and unresolved questions surrounding constitutional and electoral processes that continued to challenge state-building efforts.

Somalia demonstrated growing international relevance and achieved several important diplomatic and institutional milestones.  Yet progress remained constrained by external interference, including Israel's violation of Somalia's sovereignty through its recognition of Somaliland, alongside political fragmentation, unresolved constitutional questions, persistent insecurity, and recurring humanitarian crises.

Somalia: The Formation of Hirshabelle State

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in November 2025 a study titled "The Formation of Hirshabelle State: Challenges and Opportunities."  

Established in 2016 as the fifth federal member of Somalia, Hirshabelle State represented a pivotal yet contentious milestone in the country's governance process, which was widely criticized for its rushed and exclusionary decision-making.  The process exacerbated unresolved grievances among key stakeholders.  

Somalia: A Security Assessment and Future Outlook

 CTC Sentinel published in May 2025 an analysis titled "Somalia At the Crossroads: Resurgent Insurgents, Fragmented Politics, and the Uncertain Future of AUSSOM" by Daisy Muibu and Yayedior Mbengue.

Al-Shabaab has re-surged, issues remain between the federal government and the Puntland government, and the future of the African Union mission is uncertain.  This analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the current security situation and the outlook for Somalia.

Fixing Somalia's Political System

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2024 a report titled "18 Months to Fix Somalia's Broken Political Trajectory."

Presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 2026, giving Somalia 18 months to restore trust in the political system.  Without urgent reforms, Somalia risks further political instability.  The paper offers recommendations for building political consensus and international confidence.  

An Egyptian View of Developments in Somalia

 The National Interest published on 9 October 2024 a commentary titled "Egypt in Somalia: Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick" by Mohamed Farid, member of the Egyptian Senate, and Mohamed Maher, Egyptian journalist based in the US.

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is scheduled to take over from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by January 2025.  Egypt is supplying weapons, equipment, and training to the Somali National Army.

The authors argue that Egypt's involvement in Somalia is driven by its interest in maintaining regional stability and countering al-Shabaab terrorism.  They acknowledge, however, that Egypt is concerned by Ethiopia's "expansionist policies" that "threaten Somali sovereignty."

Somalia: Status of Establishing Security

 The International Peace Institute published in October 2024 a report titled "ATMIS Transition and Post-ATMIS Security Arrangement in Somalia."

In April 2022, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) was reconfigured as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).  Its mandate was to degrade al-Shabaab, provide security to population centers, secure major supply routes, and develop Somali security forces.  The report identifies the challenges encountered and evaluates the progress made so far.

Egypt Is Cozying Up to Somalia to Thwart Ethiopia

 The Atlantic Council published on 19 September 2024 an analysis titled "Egypt Is Cozying Up to Somalia to Thwart Ethiopia" by Shahira Amin.

In August, Egypt sent two C-130 planes with weapons and ammunition to Mogadishu to improve relations with Somalia and send a message to Ethiopia.  Egypt has long opposed Addis Ababa's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  It grew increasingly concerned following Ethiopia's memorandum of understanding with Somaliland that includes a possible Ethiopian naval base on the Somaliland coast.  

Somalia Faces Regional Tensions

The International Crisis Group posted on 19 September 2024 a 39-minute podcast titled "Somalia Amid a Swirl of Regional Tensions" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.   

Somalia is insisting that Ethiopia renounce the memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, which Ethiopia refuses to do.  Somalia signed a new security agreement with Turkey and followed this with some kind of secret agreement with Egypt, which may include training of Somali soldiers.  Turkey and Egypt seem to be working to cooperate in Somalia.

If Ethiopia does not renounce the MOU, Somalia said Ethiopian troops will no longer be permitted to participate in the ATMIS stabilization mission.  There is speculation that Egyptian troops will replace them, which would be challenging for Egypt to do.  It could also result in a short-term security vacuum.  

Both Ethiopia and Somalia are engaged in brinkmanship.  This situation leaves openings for al-Shabaab to expand its influence in Somalia.  The Islamic State remains operationally insignificant inside Somalia but is playing a larger external role.  

US Ambassador to Somalia Gives Interview

 The Voice of America published on 12 September 2024 an article titled "Exclusive Interview: US Boosts Diplomacy, Security Support in Somalia" by Mohamed Olad Hassan.  

US ambassador to Somalia, Richard Riley, reiterated that the United States does not recognize the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland and expressed hope that the third round of talks by Turkey would result in a solution to the disagreement caused by the MOU.  Riley also pointed out that the United States is Somalia's largest doner and security partner.  

Somalia Asks All Ethiopian Troops to Leave If Addis Ababa Does Not Revoke MOU with Somaliland

 Reuters published on 3 June 2024 an article titled "Somalia to Expel Ethiopian Troops Unless Somaliland Port Deal Scrapped, Official Says" by Giulia Paravicini.

At least 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers are stationed in Somalia as part of an African Union peacekeeping mission and an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 are in the country under a bilateral agreement.  Somalia announced that all Ethiopian troops will have to leave if the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU that includes construction of a port is not repealed by the end of June.  

Somalia Calls for End of UN Political Mission

 The Voice of America published on 9 May 2024 an article titled "Somalia Calls for Termination of UN Political Mission" by Mohamed Olad Hassan.

The Somali government has unexpectedly asked the UN Security Council to terminate the 360-member UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) when its mandate expires in October.  The UNSC established UNSOM in 2013 and its mandate has been renewed more than 15 times.  

The text of the 9 May 2024 letter from the Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation to the president of the UN Security Council calls for a transition of UNSOM to a traditional UN country team.  

The Somali National Army Versus Al-Shabaab

 The CTC Sentinel published in April 2024 an article titled "The Somali National Army Versus Al-Shabaab: A Net Assessment" by Paul D. Williams, George Washington University.  

This article addresses whether the departure of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) would leave the Somali National Army (SNA) or al-Shabaab stronger militarily.  The author conducted a net assessment across seven factors: size, material resources, external support, force employment, cohesion, psychological operations, and morale.  He concluded the SNA would retain an advantage in terms of size, material resources, and external support but performs poorly on non-material dimensions and would remain dependent upon external finance and security assistance.  Overall, al-Shabaab would be slightly militarily stronger.  

Senate Testimony of US Africom Commander

 General Michael E. Langley, Commander of the U.S. Africa Command, testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services on 7 March 2024.  

General Langley covered the continent but singled out the situation in Somalia, the Red Sea crisis, and Libya.  He was critical of Russian disinformation, the "predatory tactics" of Chinese and Russian companies and acknowledged that the United States seeks "to out-compete the PRC in the security cooperation arena."  

An Update on the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 6 March 2024 a Q & A titled "The Stakes in the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal."

The Q and A with ICG experts covers a wide range of issues.  The one new significant fact to come out of the discussion is that the proposed Ethiopian naval base on Somaliland's Gulf of Aden coast is expected to constitute 20 square kilometers of land and sea at an undetermined location rather than the earlier stated 20 kilometers of coastline.  This makes more sense as the 20 kilometers of coastline never specified how deep it would go into Somaliland or how much water area it would occupy.   

Somalia's Stalled Offensive Against Al-Shabaab

 CTC Sentinel published in February 2024 an article titled "Somalia's Stalled Offensive Against al-Shabaab: Taking Stock of Obstacles" by Daisy Muibu, Africa Center for Strategic Studies.  

The Somali government launched an offensive against al-Shabaab almost a year and a half ago.  It had some early success but has now stalled out.  The goal was to defeat al-Shabaab by the end of 2024 when the African Union forces are scheduled to leave Somalia.  The author identified obstacles to success as overly ambitious timelines, donor fatigue, lukewarm regional support, strategic mistakes, clan divisions, and the ability of al-Shabaab to regroup quickly after military setbacks.  

Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal Going Forward

 The International Crisis Group posted on 7 February 2024 a 36-minute podcast titled "Somalia, Somaliland and the Explosive Port Deal" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.

The discussion focused on the reaction of Somalia, the possibility that the deal may contribute to conflict in the region, and the position of Ethiopia and Somaliland going forward.  From Somaliland's perspective the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is straightforward acceptance of a 50-year lease for a naval base on its coast in exchange for Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland. 

Details of the MOU have still not been made public.  At this point, it seems to be more of a declaration of intent.  For example, there is no agreement where Ethiopia's naval base will be located, although it apparently will not be at Somaliland's current port of Berbera.   

Saga of the UN Helicopter Downed in Al-Shabaab-controlled Part of Somalia

 The Washington Post published on 12 January 2024 an article titled "Crew of Crashed U.N. Helicopter Waited an Hour for Rescue before Kidnap" by Katharine Houreld. 

A U.N. helicopter affiliated with the African Union peacekeeping mission crash landed this week in a section of Somalia controlled by al-Shabaab.  Before a rescue team arrived, most of the nine persons on board were captured by al-Shabaab.  A Somali doctor and Ugandan security officer reportedly escaped, and one person died.  The crew consisted of four Ukrainians.    

Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal Alters Regional Geopolitics

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project published on 4 January 2024 an analysis titled "Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal Strains Horn of Africa Counterterrorism Cooperation and Alters Red Sea Geopolitics" by Liam Karr.  

The author concluded the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has severely strained Somali-Ethiopian relations and increased anti-Ethiopian sentiment in southern Somalia, which will likely weaken regional counterterrorism cooperation and energize al-Shabaab.  Djibouti, Egypt, and Eritrea will likely view an Ethiopian base in the Gulf of Aden as a threat, while the UAE's strong ties with the Ethiopian government will strengthen the Emiratis' position in its regional rivalry with other Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Somalia: Think Long Term, Not Quick Fixes

 World Politics Review published on 1 December 2023 a commentary titled "Somalia Needs Realistic Objectives, Not Quick Fixes" by Omar Mahmood and Nicolas Delaunay, both with the International Crisis Group. 

Al-Shabaab retains clan support in parts of central Somalia and has demonstrated resilience over the years.  President Hassan Sheikh needs to focus on long-term policies and show that the Somali government can provide better services for the Somali people and roll out genuine national reconciliation programs that bring peace dividends.  

Podcast on Somalia and US Role

 The International Crisis Group posted on 6 November 2023 a 38-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Stalling Fight against Al-Shabaab and America's Wobbly Strategy" with Omar Mahmood and Sarah Harrison.

Somali government advances against al-Shabab stalled during the summer and even experienced some reverses.  A military victory looks more distant.  The podcast discusses US policy towards Somalia and frustration over the apparent absence of US attention to an end game.