Scenarios for China-Africa Trade During Tariff War

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 5 September 2025 an analysis titled "China-Africa Trade Scenarios Amid Global Tariff War" by Rafiq Raji.

The author identifies 4 China-Africa trade scenarios emerging from the global tariff war.  (1) China continues to sell Africa manufactured goods and buy raw materials, resulting in growing African trade deficits.  (2)  China has excess manufacturing capacity and uses Africa as a dumping ground for Chinese goods. (3)  African countries exchange higher Chinese investment in mineral extraction for more value-added manufacturing capacity. (4)  Chinese firms invest in the production of manufactured goods from extracted raw materials both in Africa as well as upstream processing that plugs into global value chains.

China's Exports to Africa Surge While They Decline to US

 The New York Times published on 8 September 2025 an article titled "China's Exports to Africa Are Soaring as Trade to U.S. Plunges" by Daisuke Wakabayashi and Musinguzi Blanshe.  

China has gained a $60 billion trade surplus with Africa through August of this year.  It has exported $141 billion of goods and services to Africa as of the end of August and imported $81 billion from Africa.  China's exports to the United States have plunged 33 percent while those to Africa increased 26 percent.  As the US dismantles its foreign aid program and pulls back from Africa, China is presenting itself as an economic counterbalance.  

Comment:  The downside for Africa, however, is a long standing and increasing trade deficit with China, which even the elimination of Chinese tariffs cannot seem to reverse.  

China: Falling Crude Oil Imports from Africa

 Visual Capitalist published on 2 September 2025 a chart titled "Visualizing China's Crude Oil Imports by Country" by Dorothy Neufeld and Joyce Ma.

The chart shows China's crude oil imports by major source in 2024.  African countries accounted for less than 9 percent of China's total imports.  This percentage has been steadily declining over the last 15 years but has stabilized in the last couple of years at this low level.

By comparison, in 2024 China received 57 percent of its crude from the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran.  Another 20 percent came from Russia.    

China-US Competition in Djibouti

 The Atlantic Council published on 31 July 2025 an analysis titled "Djibouti Is the Next Arena for US-China Competition in the Red Sea" by Emily Milliken.

The author asks how the US can maintain or strengthen its influence in Djibouti when China is providing billions for infrastructure development.  Greater US support for American investment, partnering with the UAE, encouraging the use of Israeli technology, and engaging the country with strategic clarity would improve Washington's position in Djibouti.

Sharp Increase in Chinese Exports to Africa

Business Insider Africa published on 27 August 2025 an article titled "Africa Is Becoming One of China's Favorite Markets, And Trump May Have Helped" by Chinedu Okafor.  

Chinese exports to Africa have increased by 25 percent year on year to $122 billion during the first half of 2025.  At the same time, orders from the United States have declined.  Increased US tariffs and a weaker Chinese currency have made it more attractive to purchase goods from China.  The downside of this situation for Africa is a growing trade deficit with China

Large Increase in African Solar Imports from China

 Ember, a global energy think tank, published on 26 August 2025 a report titled "The First Evidence of a Take-off in Solar in Africa" by Dave Jones.

The report presents Ember's analysis of Africa's imports of solar panels from China.  African imports from China rose 60 percent in the last 12 months to 15,032 MW.  Over the last two years, the imports of solar panels outside of South Africa have nearly tripled from 3,734 MW to 11,248 MW.  Twenty African countries set a new record for the import of solar panels in the 12 months to June 2025.

US-European Lobito Corridor Project Not Aimed at China

 The South China Morning Post published on 23 August 2025 an article titled "'No Geopolitics Involved': Angola Rail Project Not Aimed at Countering China, CEO Says" by Jevans Nyabiage.

The newly appointed chief executive of the Lobito Atlantic Railway that connects the mineral regions of Zambia, the DRC, and Angola says the company has "zero geopolitical considerations."  The railway is a joint venture project backed by European companies.  The United States has pledged $4 billion to the project.  While often portrayed as the US response to China in the region, Chinese companies are expected to use the railway.

China-India Competition in the Western Indian Ocean

 Stimson published on 20 August 2025 a commentary titled "India Must Level Up to Compete with China in the Western Indian Ocean" by Radhey Tambi.

The author argues that India is falling behind China's influence in the Western Indian Ocean and needs to step up its diplomatic, political, institutional, military, economic, and soft power engagement with the island countries if it intends to compete with Beijing.  

Chinese Diplomacy in Africa

 The LSE Blog posted on 6 August 2025 a commentary titled "China is Reshaping Global Power Dynamics through Diplomatic Ritual" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah, Lingnan University, and Christian Kaunert, Dublin City University.

In January 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made his first overseas trip of the year to Africa--Chad, Republic of Congo, Namibia, and Nigeria--a practice the Chinese foreign minister has done every year since 1991.  The author argues that Wang Yi's trip represents a systematic erosion of Western influence in Africa.

Ethiopia Bans Sinotruk Brand for Safety Reasons

 Ethio Negari posted on 16 August 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Bans Entry of China-Made Sinotruk Vehicles."

Ethiopia's Ministry of Transport and Logistics has banned the importation of Sinotruk vehicles citing serious quality and technical defects that pose risks to public safety.

A RAND Primer on China-Africa Relations

RAND published on 15 July 2025 a study titled "Chinese Engagement with Africa: A RAND Research Primer" by Oluwetimilehin Sotubo and Cortez A. Cooper III.

The study presents an historical overview of the China-Africa relationship since the middle of the 20th century that includes the economic, humanitarian, and political aspects.  It highlights trade and investment flows and summarizes Chinese medical and military cooperation with Africa.

Eswatini Recognizes Taipei but Beijing Constructs Dam

 The South China Morning Post published on 8 August 2025 an article titled "Beijing Strengthens Ties with eSwatini Despite Diplomatic Dispute over Taiwan" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Eswatini is the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan.  Yet, China's state-owned PowerChina is constructing a $146 million dam in the country.  China has a long history of economic ties with eSwatini and is playing the long political game, assuming that economic engagement will strengthen the political relationship.

Will US Tariffs Push African Countries Further into Arms of China?

 CNN posted on 5 August 2025 an article titled "Trump's Tariffs Are Sending African Countries into China's Hands" by Nimi Princewill.  

As the United States imposes tariffs on African countries, representatives of Nigeria and South Africa, the two largest economies in Africa, say this will only push African countries closer to China.  

New US Tariffs on African Countries

 The White House issued an executive order dated 31 July 2025 titled "Further Modifying the Reciprocal Tariff Rates," which updates global tariff rates. 

Algeria, Libya, and South Africa now have 30 percent tariffs.  Tunisia has a 25 percent tariff.  The following countries have 15 percent tariffs: Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, DRC, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.  

Other countries in Africa face a 10 percent tariff.  

Chinese Investment in Zambia

 News Diggers recently aired a 54-minute video documentary titled "Chinese Investment in Zambia -- the Good, the Bad, and the Dangerous" by Joseph Mwenda.

The documentary focuses on environmental damage caused by the collapse of a copper mine tailing dam controlled by Sino-Metals Ltd., sulfur dioxide released into the air by Avocado Mining Ltd., and dangerous working conditions in artisanal copper mines where Rong Xing Investment buys much of the production.  

China's embassy in Lusaka tried to prevent the airing of this controversial documentary.   

China Sees Economic Development as Solution to Horn of Africa Conflicts

 The South China Morning Post published on 4 August 2025 an article titled "China Pledges Support for Peaceful Development in Horn of Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China's Horn of Africa special envoy Xue Bing told participants at the 3rd Horn of Africa Conference on Peace and Development held in Uganda that Beijing promotes economic development as a solution to resolving conflict in the region.  

Can African Countries Capitalize on "Strategic Partnerships" with China?

 The Diplomat published on 14 July 2025 an article titled "Africa and China: Turning FOCAC's Strategic Upgrades into Real Outcomes" by Huiyi Chen, Development Reimagined.  

Every African country except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan, now has at least a "strategic partnership" with China and many have a more elevated status such as "comprehensive strategic partnership," "comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership," and a special status for Ethiopia and South Africa.  

The author argues that African countries must now sharpen their strategies to maximize the new framework with China.  The year 2025 will test whether these upgraded ties can deliver real outcomes.  

Chinese Premier Visits Egypt to Deepen Ties

 UAE-based The National published on 9 July 2025 an article titled "Chinese Premier Li Qiang Visits Egypt to Deepen Ties as US Relations Sour" by Kamal Tabikha.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang is visiting Egypt on a visit to strengthen relations.  The article concludes that Egypt's growing frustration with Israel's polices in Gaza and its perception of US inaction have driven Cairo to recalibrate its foreign policy, resulting in Egypt prioritizing partnerships with China and BRICS nations to reduce reliance on Washington.

China Increases Influence in Egypt

 The Organization for World Peace published on 25 June 2025 an analysis titled "China and Egypt: A Strategic Embrace at the Crossroads of Power and Infrastructure" by Anson Zhang.

This is an updated account of the China-Egypt relationship with an emphasis on the increasing influence of China in Egypt.  At the same time, Egypt has concerns over its large, persistent trade deficit with China and its ability to repay $8 billion in loans to Chinese banks.  

China Expands Use of Yuan in Africa

 The Nanyang Technological University posted on 26 June 2025 an article titled "Yuan Payments System Makes Inroads in Africa."

China has added two African financial institutions--African Export-Import Bank and the Johannesburg-based Standard Bank--to its Cross-border Interbank Payments System (CIPS), which is an alternative to the Swift international payments network.

CIPS enables Chinese and foreign banks to clear and settle cross-border payments in Chinese Yuan.  The system is a key part of China's strategy to promote the use of the Yuan in global trade and insulate it from potential adverse Western actions.