Great Power Competition for DRC Critical Minerals

 Bankable posted on 7 April 2026 a commentary titled "Zijin, CMOC Back Competing Alternative to Lobito Corridor" by Pierre Mukoko.

China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and four Chinese companies are financing a $1.4 billion project to rehabilitate the Tanzania-Zambia railway that will transport critical minerals from the DRC to the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam.

The Tanzania-Zambia railway will compete with the American and European Lobito Corridor project that will transport critical minerals from the DRC to an Atlantic Ocean port in Angola.  

The Communist Party of China Reaches Out to Africa

 E-International Relations posted on 1 April 2026 my short paper titled "The Communist Party of China Reaches Out to Africa."

This is a post-COVID-19 update of efforts by the International Department of the Communist Party of China (ID-CPC) to strengthen ties with political parties in Africa.  COVID-19 significantly interrupted the ID-CPC's interaction with African political parties. The ID-CPC has now returned to a high degree of engagement with them.     

Russia's Security Program in Africa after the Wagner Group

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in February 2026 a study titled "Back to the Shadows: Russia's African Security Engagements Since Prigozhin" by Ivan U. Klyszcz, Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, Estonia.  

Russia continues to deploy military personnel and conduct information operations to shape regional politics in Africa.  Since 2023, Moscow has taken tighter control, with Kremlin-linked figures, state agencies, and federal funding driving these efforts.  Russian activities reflect the Kremlin's top foreign policy priorities but are constrained by competing demands, especially the war in Ukraine.

China Increases Lithium Investments in DRC

 Discovery Alert posted on 25 March 2026 an article titled "DRC Lithium Project: $1.4B Investment Transforming Africa's Mining Sector" by Muflih Hidayat.

China's Zijin Mining Group will have a 55 percent controlling interest in a $1.4 billion joint investment with the DRC government in a lithium mining project that will potentially contribute almost 5 percent of global mined lithium output by 2028.

The DRC project represents a paradigm shift in how international mining companies approach African mineral extraction.  Rather than focus on raw material export, this approach integrates downstream processing capabilities directly into mining operations.  

Russia Lures/Recruits Africans to Fight against Ukraine

 The Washington Post published on 2 February 2026 an article titled "Kenyan Job Seekers Were Lured to Russia, Then Sent to Die in Ukraine" by Rael Ombuor and Katharine Houreld.  

The story is based on interviews with four Kenyans who fought for Russia in Ukraine and family members of nine other Kenyan recruits. Ukraine sources have identified 1,436 nationals from 36 African countries fighting for Russia.  Some of the Africans were recruited to fight on the side of Russia while others were lured to Russia for civilian employment and forced to fight for Russia.  

China Expands Military Footprint in Africa

 The African Center for Strategic Studies published on 30 January 2026 a paper titled "China's Military Footprint in Africa Deepens with People's Liberation Army-led BRICS Naval Drills" by Paul Nantulya.  

The January 2026 BRICS Plus naval exercise in South African waters led by China's People's Liberation Army underscored Beijing's use of military power in Africa to advance Chinese geostrategic objectives.  China views BRICS Plus as part of an alternative global security and geopolitical architecture intended to counterbalance Western and US-led initiatives.  

Beijing has invested heavily in securing African participation in Chinese-led global initiatives to enhance its legitimacy, build regional voting blocs, and strengthen China's leverage amid global rivalries.  It accomplishes this through military exercises, naval port calls, creating security architecture, arms sales, and military training.

China's Distant-Water Fishing in Indian Ocean Has Multiple Motives

 Mizzima, a non-profit foundation that supports social change and development in Myanmar, published on 28 January 2026 a commentary titled "Weaponising the Trawl: China's Maritime Militia, Distant-Water Fishing, and the Strategic Contest in the Indian Ocean."

Chinese fishing fleets maintain a massive presence in the Indian Ocean region.  What appears on the surface as fishing is, in practice, a grey-zone strategy, blending economic exploitation, intelligence gathering, and coercive presence to reshape the maritime realities without triggering open conflict.

In addition, see Sweekriti Pathak's "Fishing and Force: China's Dark Fleets and Maritime Militias" dated 29 January 2026 published by India's Observer Research Foundation.  

Analysis of China's Foreign Minister Visit to Africa

 The Development Watch Centre, an independent think tank in Uganda, published on 20 January 2026 an article titled "Making Sense of China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi's 2026 Tour of Africa" by Musanjufu Benjamin Kavubu.  

The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Africa reinforces Beijing's goal to be seen as an attractive and more reliable geopolitical and geoeconomic partner than is the case for the United States.  

Former Indian Ambassador to Ethiopia Assesses China's Approach to Africa

 The Indian website Firstpost published on 16 January 2026 a commentary titled "China Recalibrates Its Africa Outreach: Insights from Wang Yi's Tour" by Gurgit Singh, former Indian ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN, and the Africa Union.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has just completed a visit to Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Lesotho and skipped Somalia at the last minute.  Wang Yi's visit demonstrated that China is adjusting its methods in Africa to reflect debt fatigue, security volatility, and intensifying great power competition.   

China's Long Game in Africa

 Kenya's The Star published on 13 January 2026 an article titled "(Understanding China) Wang Yi's Africa Visit and China's Long Game in a Fractured World" by Stephen Ndegwa.  

The author argues that Africa is not just China's partner for growth but a "co-architect of a new global narrative."  Increasingly, the relationship is rooted in "strategic coherence, institutional cooperation and global multilateral engagement."

Comment:  This highly favorable analysis of the China-Africa relationship conveniently ignores Africa's large and continuing trade deficit with China and the mercantilist policy whereby China sells mostly value-added goods to Africa while importing almost entirely raw materials from Africa.

China's Foreign Minister Postpones Visit to Somalia at Last Minute

 Agence France Presse published on 9 January 2026 an article titled "China FM Skips Historic Somalia Visit, Lands in Tanzania."

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in Ethiopia and scheduled to visit Somalia, the first visit to Somalia by a Chinese foreign minister since the 1980s, before continuing to Tanzania.  Instead, Wang Yi went directly to Dar es Salaam, not stopping in Mogadishu.  An official in the Somali presidential palace said the Chinese delegation did not come "due to technical issues."

Comment: Relations between Somalia and China are excellent and this visit was highly anticipated.  The most likely reason for postponing was security concerns in Mogadishu.  

Chinese Foreign Minister on Annual Visit to Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 9 January 2026 an article titled "China FM Wang Yi Opens Africa Tour with United Call for Rules-based Order" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China and the African Union called for an international law-based order with respect for sovereignty in a lightly veiled criticism of the US strike against Venezuela.  China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, is on a visit to Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and Lesotho.  During his tour, he will likely juxtapose China's support for Africa against recent US actions that set back relations with the continent.

US Travel Restrictions Take Aim at Africa Mostly for Visa Overstays

 The White House posted on 16 December 2025 a fact sheet titled "President Donald J. Trump Further Restricts and Limits the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States."

The United States added 15 countries to the list impacted by partial or full travel restrictions.  There are now 34 countries subject to some kind of restriction; 26 are in Africa.  The stated purpose of this policy is "to protect the Nation from national security and public safety threats."  

The proclamation continues full restrictions and entry limitations of nationals from 12 "high-risk" countries.  This includes the following African countries: Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.  

It adds full restrictions and entry limitations on 5 additional countries, including Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and South Sudan.

It imposes full restrictions on 2 countries that were previously subject to partial restrictions, including Sierra Leone.

It continues partial restrictions on nationals of 4 original "high risk" countries, including Burundi and Togo.

It adds partial restrictions and entry limitations on 15 new countries.  They include Angola, Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Gabon, The Gambia, Malawi, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

The Associated Press published on 16 December 2025 an article titled "Trump Expands Travel Ban and Restrictions to Include an Additional 20 Countries" by Rebecca Santana.

This article includes a map that clearly demonstrates the impact of this policy on African countries.

The New York Times published on 16 December 2025 an article titled "Trump Expands Travel Ban and Restrictions to 20 More Countries" by Tyler Pager and Hamed Aleaziz. 

The article reports that homeland security secretary Kristi Noem recommended to President Trump that he institute "a full travel ban on every damn country that's been flooding our nation with killers, leeches, and entitlement junkies."

Comment: Most of the African countries on the list are there because of "high visa-overstay rates and refusal to repatriate removable nationals" from the United States.  Visa overstay means that an individual received a visa at a US embassy overseas to be in the United States for a limited period of time, for example 3 months to visit relatives or one year to study.  They stayed longer than the allotted period, which is a violation of US law.  But it has little or nothing to do with US national security. 

The fact sheet contains some African countries that do have unusually high visa overstay rates.  But others are not especially high.  Mauritania's B-1/B-2 visa overstay rate is 9 percent.  Nigeria has a B-1/B-2 overstay rate of 6 percent and F, M, and J visa overstay rate of 12 percent.  Senegal's B-1/B-2 overstay rate is 4 percent and F, M, and J overstay rate of 13 percent.  

The US policy seems more focused on cracking down on immigration and keeping certain foreigners out of the country than US national security.  As for Kristi Noem's comment on countries in the travel ban, has America fallen to this low level?   

Tanzania's Election Violence: US and EU Reassess While China and Russia Expand Ties

Chatham House published on 4 December 2025 an analysis titled "Tanzania's Election Violence: Deflecting Blame Will Only Do More Harm" by Fergus Kell. 

Tanzania held elections last October that resulted in extensive violence and hundreds of civilian deaths.  Key opponents to President Samia Suluhu Hassan were prevented from competing.  Polling stations were nearly empty on election day.  The government declared Samia the winner with 98 percent of the vote and a turnout of nearly 33 million in a country where the entire voting age population is 35 million.  Violence quickly broke out.

The United States and European Union have been critical of the election and are reassessing their relationship with Tanzania.  China and Russia have remained uncritical.  China is moving forward with a $1.4 billion project to refurbish the Tanzania-Zambia Railway while Russia continues to pursue its $1.2 billion uranium project.  

China Emphasizes Health Care Aid to Africa

 The Economist published on 27 November 2025 an article titled "The Changing Shape of Chinese Aid to Africa."

Since COVID-19, China has stepped up its aid to health care in Africa as the United States withdraws its support.  The US says it remains committed to being "the world's health leader" by routing assistance mainly through recipient country governments.

Comment:  It is still too early in the Trump administration to judge if the new US approach will work as predicted.  With the dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development, there are no longer field personnel to monitor aid programs, and it is questionable if State Department personnel at embassies abroad have the bandwidth to do this.

Xi Jinping Congratulates Tanzanian President after Flawed Election

 China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted on 6 November 2025 a statement titled "Xi Jinping Sends Congratulatory Message to Samia Suluhu Hassan on Her Assuming Office as President of Tanzania."

President Hassan received 97 percent of the vote in a highly flawed election that even an African Union monitoring team concluded "did not comply with AU principles."  There were also numerous deaths following the voting.  While Xi Jinping did not comment on the election, he said China looks forward to advancing "the China-Tanzania comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership to new heights."

US Looks Beyond China and to Africa for Rare Earths

 Fox News posted on 26 October 2025 an article titled "Trump Administration Works to Break China's Rare Earth Stranglehold on Africa" by Paul Tilsley.

Tanzania, Angola, Malawi, and South Africa expect to open rare earth mines by 2029.  The United States now imports 70 percent of its rare earth elements from China but hopes to secure new sources in Africa.  

If you can't access the article in the above link, try doing so here.

USAID Shutdown Has Severe Impact on African Health Programs

 The Washington Post published on 10 October 2025 an article titled "Medical Supply Shortages Follow U.S. Aid Cuts in Africa" by Tobi Raji and Katharine Houreld.  

Africa has reportedly lost more than $8 Billion in funding since the Trump administration dismantled USAID earlier this year, The impact has been especially significant in the case of US-financed health care programs.  The article emphasizes the damage on programs in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, Sudan, and Zimbabwe.

Tanzania-China Love Fest

 Tanzania's Daily News published on 3 October 2025 an article titled "China and Tanzania: Six Decades of Strategic Partnership Fuelling Growth" by Esther Takwa.  

Marking the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, Beijing's ambassador to Tanzania and Tanzania's minister of foreign affairs and East African cooperation worked hard to exceed the other in heaping praise on the China-Tanzania relationship.  The journalist reporting the story concluded that the speeches by the ambassador and the minister "collectively reveal a dynamic, multi-dimensional partnership transcending traditional diplomacy."

Chinese Company to Rehab Tanzania-Zambia Railway

Business Insider Africa published on 29 September 2025 an article titled "China Strikes $1.4 Billion Deal with Zambia, Tanzania for Railway Upgrade" by Adekunle Agbetiloye.   

The China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation has signed an agreement to modernize the Tanzania-Zambia Railway and then manage it for 30 years.  The $1.4 billion deal includes new locomotives, freight cars, and passenger vehicles.