Unpacking Instability in the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 19 March 2026 a 36-minute podcast titled "What Is Really Going on in the Horn?" with Alan Boswell and Moses Chrispus Okello, Institute of Security Studies.

The drivers of conflict and instability in the Horn of Africa are no longer confined to the Horn, which is being absorbed into the geopolitical arena of the Red Sea and Gulf States.  External actors are contributing to fragmentation in the Horn that is rooted in domestic politics.  

Landlocked Ethiopia is key to stability in the region because it borders all other countries in the Horn, is the most populous, and is now trying to obtain access to the Red Sea.

China's Oil Tankers Take on Saudi Crude in Red Sea to Avoid Hormuz

 Caixin Global published on 17 March 2026 an article titled "Chinese Supertanker Changes Route and Takes Oil Without Passing through Hormuz."

A Chinese supertanker originally scheduled to load crude oil in the UAE rerouted to the Saudi Arabian Red Sea port of Yanbu.  Other vessels are taking a similar action, causing a bottleneck at the port, which is served by an oil pipeline with limited capacity.  

Regionalizing Sudan's Civil War

 The International Crisis Group posted on 11 March 2026 a commentary titled "Sudan's Devastating War Rages on as Regional Rivalries Deepen" by Shewit Woldemichael.  

As Sudan's civil war nears its fourth year, the conflict is steadily regionalizing into the Horn of Africa and Gulf States, making any settlement harder to achieve.  Supporting the Sudan Armed Forces are Egypt, Eritrea, Turkiye, Qatar, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.  The principal backer of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is the UAE.  The feud between the UAE and Saudi Arabia now risks deepening the intractable nature of the war.  

Interview with Tigray Press: Part 2

 This is part 2 of the Tigray Press interview with me on 9 March 2026 hosted by Bisrat Kebede.  Part 1 is posted below on 10 March.  

This 44-minute segment focuses on the current situation in the Horn of Africa and the engagement in Africa of the United States, China, and Russia.   

Why the Iran-backed Houthis Have Stayed Out of the Conflict

 Foreign Policy published on 11 March 2026 an analysis titled "Why Haven't the Houthis Fired?" by Fatima Abo Alasrar.

In 2025, Israeli airstrikes killed Iranian-backed Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed el-Rahawi and other key officials.  US airstrikes significantly degraded their military capacity.  

Iran is now bombing Arab cities, resulting is less enthusiasm by the Houthis to support Tehran.  The Houthis also fear that Iranian attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia will drive them closer together, possibly recreating the original alliance against the Houthis.  While this changing political situation in the region does not guarantee the Houthis will stay out of the conflict, it has given the leadership reason to tread carefully.

Update on Rising Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 African Business published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Rising Again" by Harry Clynch.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have amassed troops on their shared border, leading some analysts to fear that war could be on its way.  Other analysts are less convinced that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely.  

Tigray News Interview on Iran War and Horn of Africa

 Bisrat Kebede of Tigray News interviewed me on 9 March 2026; the title of the 50-minute video is "Iran Conflict: Sparking a Global Conflict." 

The first forty minutes dealt with the on-going war in Iran while the final ten minutes focused on the situation in the Horn of Africa.  I began my remarks on Iran with the caveat that this is not my area of specialization although I try to follow developments in the Middle East as well as the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.  

What Is Restraining Iran-backed Houthis from Entering Conflict?

 Aljazeera published on 7 March 2026 an article titled "Why Yemen's Houthis Are Staying Out of Israel-US Fight with Iran--for Now."

Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have limited their support for Tehran to rhetoric and a mass protest denouncing the US-Israeli strikes.  The Houthis seem to fear Israel intelligence and the possibility of leadership decapitation.  At the same time, the Houthi leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, said his group's engagement in the war could occur at any moment depending on developments.  

Will Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen Resume Attacks on Israel and Red Sea Shipping?

 The Hause of Saud, a Saudi Royal Family news and information platform, posted on 6 March 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthi Trigger--Why Yemen's Decision Could Be More Dangerous Than the Iran War Itself" by Abdul Mohammed.

In an excellent and timely analysis, the author explains that the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen are debating whether to join the Iran war.  If they resume attacks on Red Sea international shipping alongside the Hormuz closure, 28 percent of global oil trade faces simultaneous disruption.  

The Houthis are engaged in the single most important strategic decision facing any non-state actor in the current conflict. Their choice to enter or abstain from the Iran war will determine whether the world faces an unprecedented dual-chokepoint crisis, whether Saudi Arabia's $500 billion NEOM megaproject becomes a frontline target, and whether the global economy tips from disruption into recession.  

The Houthis must decide whether to join Iran in opposing Operation Epic Fury or abandon Iran.  There are apparently sharp disagreements among Houthi factions over how to respond.  

China's Port Network Clusters Near Chokepoints

 The Conversation published on 4 March 2026 an analysis titled "Far from Random, China's Global Port Network Is Clustering Near the World's Riskiest Trade Routes" by Dylan Spencer, Georgia Southern University, Gohar Petrossian, John Jay School of Criminal Justice, and Stephen Pires, Florida International University.

Chinese companies now own or operate terminals at more than 90 ports worldwide.  This program is not random; the investments cluster near maritime chokepoints and piracy-prone shipping corridors such as the Suez Canal/Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, and Strait of Malacca.  Proximity to critical trade bottlenecks strongly predicts Chinese port investment.  

Implications of Iran War for Red Sea and Horn of Africa

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 4 March 2026 an analysis titled "Iran War's Impact on the Red Sea and Horn of Africa" by Liam Karr.

The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen could resume missile strikes on Israel or initiate strikes on the UAE but have not yet done so.  The US military base in Djibouti is another possible target.  For its part, Iran may engage in terrorist attacks on US interests in Africa.

Choosing Peace in the Horn of Africa

 An Africanist Perspective posted on 27 February 2026 a commentary titled "Conflict in the Horn of Africa Isn't Inevitable.  People Can Choose Peace" by Ken Opalo.  

The fundamental drivers of conflict in the Horn of Africa are domestic.  Once rebellions start, they tend to acquire lives of their own.  A neighborhood of weak states with porous borders contributes to the problem, making it easy for regional rivals and foreign governments to interfere.  

Too many people in the Horn are convinced that organized violence is a legitimate response to losing in the political arena.  That has to change before there will be peace.  

Somaliland/Israel/Taiwan vs China

 The University of Nottingham Taiwan Research Hub's Taiwan Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Taiwan's Diplomatic Bridge: Taiwan-Somaliland-Israel vs China in the Horn of Africa" by Faisal Abdirashid Adam. 

Taiwan, which established a liaison office in Somaliland in 2020, has embraced Israel's diplomatic recognition of Somaliland, framing it as a major step forward for the emerging "democratic triangle" of Taiwan, Israel, and Somaliland, which now positions itself as a powerful new alliance for trilateral cooperation in technology, agriculture, and Red Sea security.  

Fault Lines in the Horn of Africa

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats published in March 2026 a major report titled "Fault Lines in the Horn of Africa: The Gulf States, Turkey and Israel Battle for Red Sea Influence" by Liam Karr and Michael DeAngelo.  

This is an extensive study on the current situation in the Horn of Africa with special reference to the roles of Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.  It includes detailed recommendations for US policy.  

What's Behind Risk of War Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

The Conversation published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on Edge Again: What's Behind the Growing Risk of War" by Yohannes Gedamu. 

The author argues that landlocked Ethiopia's desire for maritime access, Eritrea's support for armed dissident groups in Ethiopia, and Eritrea's omission from the peace process that ended the Tigray war are the primary drivers of current tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopia and Eritrea Play Cat and Mouse Along Border

 Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Diplomacy, Eritrea's Escalation, and the Future of the Horn of Africa" by Bemnet Alemayehu.  

Ethiopia's minister of foreign affairs sent a letter on 7 February to his counterpart in Eritrea expressing serious concern over Eritrea's military penetration deeper into Ethiopia's northeastern border areas.  Ethiopia charged the troops violate the country's territorial integrity and demanded their immediate withdrawal. At the same time, Ethiopia called for diplomatic engagement to avoid reciprocal military escalation.

Ethiopia Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Ambiguous Letter Said More Than It Stated" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda. 

The author raises interesting questions about the substance and form of the letter.   

A facsimile of the 7 February letter between the two foreign ministers has been posted online.  Read it and decide for yourself what kind of message Ethiopia is sending to Eritrea and the world.  Is the letter an example of what Professor Don Levine called Ethiopia's Amharic tradition of "Wax and Gold?"  

Israel, Somaliland, and the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 19 February 2026 a 27-minute podcast titled "Israel, Somaliland and the Horn" with Alan Boswell and Asher Lubotzky, Israel-Africa Relations Institute.

Lubotzky commented that Israel is trying to improve relations across Africa.  In eastern Africa, its closest ties are with Ethiopia.  It also has good relations with South Sudan and Kenya.  They are up and down with Uganda and not so good with Eritrea.  Israel is making every effort to remain out of the Sudan conflict.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland was based primarily on its goal to develop a strategic link with a territory that is close to the Houthis in Yemen.  The Houthi issue drove Israel to recognize Somaliland where it can improve its intelligence operations at the southern end of the Red Sea and into Yemen.  The decision had little or nothing to do, as is often alleged, with moving Gazans to Somaliland or the Ethiopia-Egyptian dispute.  

Israel recognizes that Somaliland took a chance by recognizing Israel, which could result in Houthi attacks aimed at Somaliland.  

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray Poised to Fight

 The International Crisis Group published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa."

A new war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Region of Ethiopia is palpable.  It is gripped by rising tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa, on one side, and the Tigray Region and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, on the other.  Recent developments suggest they are getting ready for conflict.  

Ethiopia Moves Troops Closer to Tigray Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 12 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa is increasing its troop strength near Tigray Region indicating this may be a prelude to a military campaign.  Eritrea is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front and has troops inside Tigray Region.  In the event of a government attack, Eritrea is expected to side with the Tigray Defense Forces, 

Saudi-UAE Power Struggle in the Horn of Africa

 The New Arab published on 9 February 2026 an article titled "The Growing Saudi-UAE Power Struggle in the Horn of Africa" by Jonathan Fenton-Harvey.

The author reviews the Horn of Africa from the standpoint of Saudi-UAE involvement in the numerous disputes in the region and increasing competition, especially in Sudan and Somalia/Somaliland.