The International Crisis Group posted on 29 September 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan's President Jettisons Unity Government and Hardens Grip on Power" by Daniel Akech.
South Sudan's President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional unity government in advance of long-delayed elections now scheduled for December. Because of instability in South Sudan, the decision further concentrates power in the hands of Kiir and his family.
The BBC posted on 23 September 2026 an article titled "South Sudan's President Dissolves Government Ahead of Country's First Elections" by Nichola Mandil, Akisa Wandera, and Allan Olingo.
South Sudan's President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional government three months before the country's first election since its independence in 2011. Kiir removed the country's five vice presidents and dissolved parliament, national, and state governments. Kiir has no viable opposition in the December election.
African Arguments published on 16 September 2026 a commentary titled "The Horn of Africa's Age of Permanent Conflict" by Matthew de Waal.
Foreign patrons have progressively co-opted economic and military architecture in the Horn of Africa. The Horn now faces a transformed conflict system in which the boundaries of war and peace, state and non-state, and domestic and external are breaking down. Drones have exacerbated the situation.
This is not a passing phase of instability but a structural recalibration of politics, with wars becoming harder to contain, distinguish from peace, and end.
The UN Human Rights Council published on 1 September 2026 a report of the independent international fact-finding mission for Sudan titled "Fuelling Sudan's Conflict: Weapons, Fighters, and External Support Networks."
This is the most detailed UN report so far detailing external support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). It discusses Columbian mercenaries supporting the RSF, including the launching of drones, and the assistance of individuals and entities in the UAE. It also identifies support received by the RSF from individuals or entities in Libya, Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Puntland in Somalia. It identifies less external support for the SAF but notes the use of drones manufactured in Turkey.
It concludes that external support is sustaining military operations and expanding the capabilities of both the RSF and SAF, with grave consequences for civilians. Increasingly sophisticated drone capabilities enabled both sides to strike far beyond immediate front lines. The report called for the Security Council to extend the arms embargo now imposed on Darfur throughout Sudan.
New Lines Magazine published on 24 August 2026 an article titled "Living on the Edge of South Sudan's Toxic Floodplains" by Buster Emil Kirchner and Marco Simoncelli.
Defunct oil installations in South Sudan's Unity State are creating a toxic brew after recurring floods. Contaminated drinking water poses a health hazard for thousands of families and their livestock. Past oil extraction practices failed to take into account this environmental disaster.
The Pulitzer Center posted on 27 August 2026 an article titled "Israel's Ethiopian Asylum Seekers Fight Deportation Efforts" by Theia Chatelle.
Israel's asylum approval rate is 0.1 percent or about 5 people a year. Asylum applications for 1,334 Ethiopian citizens are currently pending, out of about 30,000 total asylum seekers. Most of the others are Eritrean or Sudanese.
Horn Review published on 12 August 2026 a commentary titled "South Sudan and China's Evolving Overseas Security Strategy" by Abraham Abebe.
In July, China committed to deepening military cooperation with South Sudan by continuing its support for the UN peacekeeping mission as the backbone of its contribution. Beyond this, China's support seems to be limited to expanding its military dialogue with South Sudan and increasing military exchanges.
The International Crisis Group posted on 18 August 2026 an hour-long podcast titled "Sudan's Separation Fifteen Years Ago and Today's Disaster" with Alan Boswell, Alex de Waal, and Abdul Mohammed.
Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed review the background of South Sudan's independence from Sudan and the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki. They explained why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today's fragmented regional geopolitics.
Efforts to resolve the crises in Sudan and South Sudan today are experiencing greater involvement from the Gulf States and involve a larger number of competing actors. Mediation today is extremely difficult. The global environment is highly transactional. The situation also has the possibility of becoming a regional war. It is time for the African Union to step forward and play a stronger role in ending the conflicts.
Deutsche Welle published on 4 August 2026 an article titled "South Sudan: How Climate Change Can Turn Toxic" by Buster Emil Kirchner and Marco Simoncelli.
Devastating flooding in South Sudan's Unity State in 2021 continues to have negative impacts on the environment and the wellbeing of people living in the affected area. More than 50 of South Sudan's 400 oil wells remain submerged, which has contaminated water and farmland. This has led to a variety of health problems.
Reuters published on 14 August 2026 an article titled "650,000 Refugees in South Sudan Could Lose Food Aid Within Weeks Due to Funding Squeeze, Say UN Agencies" by Olivia Le Poidevin.
Staff with the World Food Program and UN High Commission for Refugees report that 650,000 refugees in South Sudan, most of them from conflict in neighboring Sudan, may no longer receive food assistance due to a shortage of international funding.
The Conversation published on 16 July 2026 a discussion summary titled "Africa's Greater Horn Region Is Facing a Looming Polycrisis Fueled by Conflict, Prices, Climate and Disease" by Daniel Maxwell, Alex de Waal, Luka Kuol, Merry Fitzpatrick, and Peter Hailey.
The impacts of a strengthening El Nino and effects of the war in Iran combined with existing prolonged crisis and conflict in the Horn of Africa are leading potentially to a major, multicountry polycrisis.
Thierry Pairault just posted a paper titled "The Tariff Exemption Saga and the Results for the First Half of 2026."
China's zero tariff policy for all countries in Africa except Eswatini took effect on 1 May. During the first half of 2026 Africa's trade deficit with China widened from $44.7 billion to $57.9 billion as of the end of the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025. Chinese exports to Africa rose by 21.8 percent and imports from Africa by 16.3 percent compared with the same period in 2025.
Eight African countries (South Africa, DRC, Zambia, South Sudan, Nigeria, Chad, Algeria, and Zimbabwe) accounted for about 94 percent of the increase in Chinese imports from Africa during this period. Almost the entire increase in the value of African exports to China was due to the shock in world commodity prices, largely independent of the zero-tariff policy.
The International Crisis Group published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "As the Horn of Africa Nears Boiling Point, Time for Urgent Diplomacy" by Alan Boswell.
Given the uncertainty about Washington's level of commitment to bring peace to the Horn of Africa, additional Gulf States, the European Union, the United Nations, Norway, and the United Kingdom should step up their engagement.
The Rift Valley Institute recently published a report titled "The New Geopolitics of Eastern Africa."
The British Institute of Eastern Africa, Chatham House, and the Rift Valley Institute convened a group of experts to discuss the ongoing transformation of geopolitics in the Horn of Africa. This paper summarizes their conclusions, noting that the region is experiencing profound multi-decade shifts in its relationship with the wider world.
The New York Times published on 1 July 2026 a commentary titled "U.S.A.I.D. Cuts Killed People. That's the Truth" by Nicholas Kristof.
Elon Musk, who at the beginning of the Trump administration ran DOGE, the organization that dismantled the US Agency for International Development, insists "there is not even a single dead child" as a result of the actions by DOGE.
Nicholas Kristof, who has met with family members in Africa of dead children, begs to differ. In addition, studies by university researchers and by Lancet, a British medical journal, estimate that deaths due to USAID financial cuts are in the hundreds of thousands.
The Stimson Center published on 24 June 2026 a report titled "The UN Mission in South Sudan in the Context of Changing Security and Regional Dynamics."
The report concludes that the combined effects of a fragile peace process, heightened political tensions, economic deterioration, the spillover of conflict from Sudan, the emerging Ebola crisis in the neighboring DRC, and growing humanitarian pressures have created a volatile environment in South Sudan.
South Sudan continues to grapple with unresolved questions surrounding the political transition and the lack of implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), which remains the primary political framework for addressing the conflict and advancing sustainable peace.
The Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker posted on 12 June 2026 an updated background piece titled "Instability in South Sudan."
Ten million South Sudanese--nearly 84 percent of the population--need humanitarian assistance, as reports of airstrikes on civilian areas, sexual violence, and forced recruitment have escalated since March 2025.
The International Crisis Group posted on 1 June 2026 a five and one-half minute video titled "Divided Sudan, Elusive Peace."
The video provides a good, summary update of the current situation in the Sudan conflict.
The Guardian published on 21 May 2026 an article titled "US Is 'Simply Choosing Not to Stop' Ebola Outbreak after Massive Public Health Cuts, Experts Say" by Melody Schreiber.
Following the dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development and massive cuts in global and domestic public health efforts, the United States appears to be doing little to stem the outbreak of Ebola in central Africa.
The Middle East Monitor published on 12 May 2026 an article titled "Nearly 50,000 Displaced in Sudan's Blue Nile State Since Start of 2026."
The International Organization for Migration reported that almost 50,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of 2026 in Sudan's Blue Nile State as a result of fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Blue Nile State borders both Ethiopia and South Sudan.
