South Sudan's President Dissolves Government

 The BBC posted on 23 September 2026 an article titled "South Sudan's President Dissolves Government Ahead of Country's First Elections" by Nichola Mandil, Akisa Wandera, and Allan Olingo.

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional government three months before the country's first election since its independence in 2011. Kiir removed the country's five vice presidents and dissolved parliament, national, and state governments.  Kiir has no viable opposition in the December election.

Status of the UN Mission in South Sudan

 The Stimson Center published on 24 June 2026 a report titled "The UN Mission in South Sudan in the Context of Changing Security and Regional Dynamics."

The report concludes that the combined effects of a fragile peace process, heightened political tensions, economic deterioration, the spillover of conflict from Sudan, the emerging Ebola crisis in the neighboring DRC, and growing humanitarian pressures have created a volatile environment in South Sudan.

South Sudan continues to grapple with unresolved questions surrounding the political transition and the lack of implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), which remains the primary political framework for addressing the conflict and advancing sustainable peace.  

Trial of South Sudan's Vice President Threatens Stability

 The International Crisis Group published on 27 November 2025 an analysis titled "A Trial for South Sudan's Frail Peace" by Daniel Akech.

The trial of South Sudan's First Vice President Riek Machar poses a serious threat to the country's stability.  Machar is charged with criminal offenses including treason, murder, and crimes against humanity.  

Succession Concerns in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 1 September 2025 an analysis titled "Succession Fever Deepens South Sudan's Malaise."

As the health of South Sudan's President Salva Kiir declines, there is growing disquiet in the country over Kiir's effort to have inexperienced Benjamin Bol Mel succeed him.  The ICG argues there needs to be a forum where key South Sudanese elites can discuss the political future, including the question of who will replace Kiir.

Situation in South Sudan Deteriorates

 The International Crisis Group posted on 18 August 2025 remarks titled "Briefing to UN Security Council on the Situation in South Sudan" by Murithi Mutiga.  

The 2018 peace accord, which ended a civil war in South Sudan, appears to be collapsing and the ongoing civil war in neighboring Sudan is extending instability by driving over 1.2 million people into South Sudan.  

Alhurra Interview on the Horn of Africa

 Alhurra has just posted a 30-minute interview with me in English and with Arabic subtitles on "The Diplomat" dealing with the Horn of Africa.

Much of the interview focuses on US diplomacy during the Ethiopia-Eritrea war that broke out in 1998.  There is also a discussion of US policy towards Sudan and the genocide in Rwanda.

An Heir Apparent in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 9 June 2025 a half hour podcast titled "As South Sudan Quakes, an Heir Apparent Rises" with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akech.

The podcast discusses the political decline of President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar and the rise of wealthy Dinka businessman, Benjamin Bol Mel, who is closely linked to Salva Kiir.  Although much younger than Salva Kiir, Benjamin Bol Mel is not seen as a person who would significantly change the corrupt system in South Sudan.  

Is South Sudan Approaching Point of No Return?

 The International Crisis Group published on 11 September 2024 an analysis titled "High Stakes for the South Sudan Talks in Kenya" by Daniel Akech.  

Kenya is mediating talks in Nairobi between Salwa Kiir's South Sudan government and exiled opposition leaders.  National elections scheduled for December are in doubt, South Sudan is facing a humanitarian crisis as oil revenue falls, divisions have developed in the Kiir government, and Riek Machar's party has withdrawn from the talks. The negotiations in Nairobi are imperiled.

UN Human Rights Report on South Sudan

 The UN Human Rights Council published on 29 February 2024 an unedited version of its "Report of the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan." 

The report details a range of human rights violations, abuses, and related crimes, including systematic political repression and economic predation by political elites.  Women continue to endure pervasive discrimination, inequality, sexual violence, and sexual slavery.  Children suffer egregious violations, arising from the ongoing insurgency and resurgent subnational violence, fueled by local and national elites.

Can South Sudan Mediate Sudan's Crisis?

 African Arguments published on 5 June 2023 a commentary titled "The Sudan Crisis Viewed from Juba: A Path Towards Resolution" by Mayiik Ayii Deng.  

The author makes the argument that South Sudan's President Salva Kiir is well positioned to mediate an end to the crisis in its northern neighbor.  

South Sudan's Top Leaders have Falling Out

 Agence France Presse published on 25 October 2022 an article titled "South Sudan VP Rejects Ouster from Ruling Party" by John Macdougall.

South Sudan's Vice President, Riek Machar, refused to be removed from the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement by President Salva Kiir.  It is not clear if this incident will result in renewed conflict between the two faction leaders.

South Sudan: The Secret of Salva Kiir's Survival in Power

 African Arguments published on 16 February 2022 a commentary titled "The Pawn Who Became King: How Has Salva Kiir Stayed at the Top So Long?" by Daniel Akech Thiong, independent consultant.

The author concludes that Salva Kiir has survived by employing a combination of carrots and sticks in his interaction with friends and enemies.  

South Sudan's Deteriorating Finances

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 6 October 2021 a paper titled "Oil or Nothing: Dealing with South Sudan's Bleeding Finances."  

South Sudan's state finances are derailing it from the already fraught path to peace and stability after a brutal civil war.  The regimes slush-fund approach to governance and winner-take-all politics helps explain why so much went wrong so quickly after independence in 2011.  Much of the problem has been caused by the government's mishandling of its oil wealth.  

South Sudan's Lost Decade

 Foreign Policy published on 14 July 2021 a commentary titled "South Sudan's Lost Decade" by Lynsey Chutel.

The author noted that two-thirds of South Sudan's population is in dire need of humanitarian assistance.  As a result of disappointing leadership, South Sudan's first decade of independence has been tragic.

South Sudan's Tenth Birthday

 Foreign Affairs published on 9 July 2021 an analysis titled "South Sudan's Dismal Tenth Birthday" by Comfort Ero and Alan Boswell.

The authors conclude that South Sudan is failing but all is not lost.  It can survive if it pursues a more consensual form of government.  

South Sudan's Other War

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 25 February 2021 a report titled "South Sudan's Other War: The Insurgency in Equatoria."

This is an account of a little known insurgency in South Sudan's Equatoria region led by General Thomas Cirillo.  

South Sudan: Looking Ahead

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 10 February 2021 a lengthy report titled "Toward a Viable Future for South Sudan."

The ICG reports that the peace agreement in South Sudan is fragile and the threat of a return to full blown war remains.  South Sudan's political system must distribute power more broadly before elections can be held.  

South Sudan's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

 African Arguments posted on 2 December 2020 a commentary titled "South Sudan's Two Big Foreign Policy Questions" by Daniel Akech Thiong.

South Sudan faces two foreign policy balancing acts: its relations with Sudan and Uganda, on the one hand, and Egypt and Ethiopia, on the other.  

Whither South Sudan?

The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) posted on 7 October 2019 a commentary titled "South Sudan: Hope for the Best, Plan for the Worst" by David Deng, South Sudanese-American human rights lawyer, and Aly Verjee, USIP.

The authors do not predict that failure of the peace process in South Sudan is inevitable nor necessarily imminent. But there are signs the hopeful outcome they desire may not come to pass. They suggest two possible negative scenarios and what mignt be done to ameliorate them.

South Sudan: New Generation of Leaders Needed

Foreign Policy published on 14 June 2019 a commentary titled "The Old Guard Are Killing the World's Youngest Country" by Zach Vertin.

The author argues that it will take a new generation of young leaders to prevail in South Sudan before it can become a successful state.