An Heir Apparent in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 9 June 2025 a half hour podcast titled "As South Sudan Quakes, an Heir Apparent Rises" with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akech.

The podcast discusses the political decline of President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar and the rise of wealthy Dinka businessman, Benjamin Bol Mel, who is closely linked to Salva Kiir.  Although much younger than Salva Kiir, Benjamin Bol Mel is not seen as a person who would significantly change the corrupt system in South Sudan.  

Building South Sudan from Scratch

The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training just posted an oral history interview titled "Building a Country from Scratch--The South Sudanese Transition to Independence (2005-2011)." This is an interview with Gerald Hyman in 2016 based on his experience as a USAID officer in South Sudan until 2007. He signaled concerns that South Sudan was not ready for independence.

Splits in Sudan People's Liberation Movement

Good Governance Africa published on 1 February 2015 an analysis titled "Fresh Blood from Old Wounds" by Kevin Bloom.  It discusses the long-standing personal rivalry in the Sudan People's Liberation Movement that has led to the split between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar. 

Interview on Southern Sudan

Al Alam News Network, an Arabic language TV channel based in Beirut, asked me to join a spokesperson for the government of Sudan in a discussion on Jan. 27, 2011, concerning the recent referendum on the secession of Southern Sudan. The sound quality of the line from Beirut made it very difficult to understand the questions, but I made the following points.

The United States initially supported the unity of Sudan rather than its division into two countries. When it became apparent, however, that neither the government in Southern Sudan nor in Khartoum was working to make unity attractive, the United States insisted on holding the referendum on schedule and that its results be accepted. The death of former Sudan People’s Liberation Movement Leader John Garang in a helicopter accident ended any effort by Southern Sudan to seek unity while the government in Khartoum never made a serious attempt to make unity attractive.

The United States will almost certainly push for democratic systems in Southern Sudan just as it has been doing in the North.

I doubted that the United States has any intention to provide arms to Southern Sudan, although some American groups outside the government are arguing that the United States should, at a minimum, provide defensive military equipment. So far, Southern Sudan has had no problem buying arms on the international arms market.

It is in the interest of both the North and South and the entire Horn of African region to have an amicable divorce between the two parties where they resolve outstanding issues in the next six months before the interim government comes to an end. This should be followed by “soft borders” for the free movement of people between the North and South. This was a point made in Washington on Jan. 26 by visiting Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Karti.