Sunday, September 20, 2026

What Does Africa Want from Russia?

 Pressenza published on 13 September 2026 an article titled "Geopolitics: Africa Deserves Its Own Position on Russia's Policy Agenda" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

Russia's policy towards Africa lacks coordination and adequate information.  This makes it even more important that Africa avoid the mistakes of its interaction with the former colonial powers and ensures that Russia treats African natural resources in a way that contributes to local manufacturing and processing of raw materials.

Saturday, September 19, 2026

Somaliland President Seeks US Recognition During US Visit

 New Lines Magazine published on 16 September 2026 an article titled "Somaliland's Uphill Struggle for Recognition in Washington" by Theophile Simon.

Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi is on a month-long visit to the United States in an effort to obtain diplomatic recognition by the Trump administration.  While his chances of succeeding are not high, he may well obtain some commitments from Washington that will strengthen Somaliland's relations with the United States.

China Converts Economic Influence in Africa to Strategic Influence

 Modern Diplomacy published on 14 September 2026 a commentary titled "Is China Turning Economic Influence in Africa into Strategic Power?" by Nadia Helmy.

The author argues that China is leveraging its membership in BRICS and its direct investment in Africa as tools to build economic influence that gradually translate into sustainable political, security, and strategic influence.  

Friday, September 18, 2026

PLA Upgrades Communications and Intel Capability at Djibouti Military Base

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 17 September 2026 an article titled "Extended Range: China Upgrades Its Military Base in Djibouti" by Matthew Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs, and Douglas Comstock.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has installed new equipment at its military base in Djibouti that will strengthen its internal communications capabilities and enable signals intelligence collection.

This new equipment allows the PLA to maintain redundant over-the-horizon communications with Chinese ships and aircraft operating in the region and provides secure communications channels with command headquarters in China.  It probably enables the PLA to monitor the activities of other military bases in Djibouti.

China-Africa Trade Developments

 The Rhodium Group published on 14 September 2026 an analysis titled "Monitoring China-Africa Trade Spillovers" by Jeremy Smith.

The analysis focuses on the impact of changes in China's economy on trade with South Africa, Angola, and the DRC.  China's slowing growth and worsening trade imbalances are rapidly reshaping its economic relationship with Africa.  China's export surge to Africa lowers the cost of goods for consumers but makes domestic industrialization harder.  Africa should no longer expect the rising tide of Chinese demand to lift all boats for commodity exporters.

US Gives UN Funding for Somalia Peacekeeping One Year Reprieve

 Reuters published on 18 September 2026 an article titled "US Gives UN More Time to End Support for Somalia Peacekeepers" by Faisal Ali and Ammu Kannampilly.

The United States has agreed to give the United Nations another year beginning in January 2027 to wind down its funding for the African Union peacekeeping operation in Somalia. The US had earlier said it would not support UN funding after the end of 2026.

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Yemen's Houthis Tighten Control Over Southern Entrance to Red Sea

AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 17 September 2026 an article titled "Houthis Threaten the Bab al Mandeb" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr. 

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have taken control of Bab el Mandeb, the southern entrance to the Red Sea.  The Houthis are threatening Saudi Arabia and advancing an effort to disrupt global energy markets, although they are only prohibiting Saudi shipping through the Bab el Mandeb Strait.  

Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the only Red Sea littoral countries with a navy that can counter the Houthis.  Egypt has been reluctant so far to pursue military action against the Houthis.

Permanent Conflict in the Horn of Africa

 African Arguments published on 16 September 2026 a commentary titled "The Horn of Africa's Age of Permanent Conflict" by Matthew de Waal.

Foreign patrons have progressively co-opted economic and military architecture in the Horn of Africa.  The Horn now faces a transformed conflict system in which the boundaries of war and peace, state and non-state, and domestic and external are breaking down.  Drones have exacerbated the situation.

This is not a passing phase of instability but a structural recalibration of politics, with wars becoming harder to contain, distinguish from peace, and end.

China's Duty-Free Policy Will Not End African Trade Deficits

 The Diplomat published on 16 September 2026 an article titled "China's Free-Trade Offer to Africa Won't Solve the Trade Imbalance" by Matthew J. Rochat.

China's new zero tariff policy across 100 percent of tariff lines for 53 African countries will not resolve the large trade deficits that most African countries have with China.  Extractive products, especially minerals and oil, account for 89 percent of African exports to China, while 94 percent of African imports from China are manufactured goods.  Duty free tariffs have done little to alter this pattern.

The Decimation of the US Foreign Service

 Diplomacy Notebook posted on 16 September 2026 a commentary titled "Rebuilt After 9/11, U.S. Diplomacy Now Lies in Ruins" by Nicholas Kralev.

This is an account of the destruction since 9/11 of the U.S. Foreign Service, especially since the advent of the second Trump administration.  

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Ethiopia: The Failure of Tigrayan Nationalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 September 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray's Liberation Must End in Freedom" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare.

The author concludes that Tigrayan nationalism has failed not because it lacks the capacity to mobilize a people in defense of its survival but because it has never converted mobilization into a political order that citizens, rather than a party or battlefield command, actually govern.

Somaliland's President Presses for Diplomatic Recognition in Washington

 Semafor published on 16 September 2026 an article titled "Somaliland's President Puts Everything on the Table for Trump" by Yinka Adegoke.  

Somaliland's President Abdirahmin Mohamed Abdullahi "Irro" is in Washington pressing his case for diplomatic recognition.  Irro is signaling that Somaliland is open to an American military base in the port of Berbera.

Irro said that Somaliland intends to maintain a relationship with Taiwan, but it welcomes investment from China.  

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Peacekeeping in Somalia Faces Hard Times

 Foreign Policy published on 15 September 2026 an article titled "How Al-Shabaab Beat the Peacekeepers" by Mohamed Gabode.

The author argues that after two decades of military intervention, largely financed by the United States, the al-Qaeda-affiliated organization al-Shabaab is arguably stronger than ever.  As a result, the United States has announced it is ending financial support for the African Union peacekeeping mission.  

US Deal for Rwandan Tungsten to Decrease Dependence on China

Business Elites Africa published on 15 September 2026 an article titled "Rwanda Secures 25% Stake in Almonty Tungsten Venture Amid US Defense Shift" by Ikeh Ifeanyichukwu James.

China accounts for over 80 percent of world tungsten production.  The United States is trying to diversify its tungsten supply chain by financing a deal with a Canadian tungsten company and a new mining venture in Rwanda, which will hold a 25 percent stake in the operation.

Open Access Special Journal Issue on Eastern Africa-China Connections

 Kairos: A Journal of Critical Symposium devoted its volume 11 (2) 2026 issue to Eastern Africa-China relations.  The open access articles are:

--The Dynamics of Eastern Africa-China Transoceanic and Digital Connections Across Centuries by Oduor Obura and James Odhiambo Ogone.

--Enduring Entanglements between Eastern Africa and China: Conversation with Yvonne Adhiambo Owuor by James Odhiambo Ogone and Oduor Ogone.

--Digital Culture and Popular Diplomacy: Bridging the Eastern African China Divide through Cultural Exchanges on Social Media by James Odhiambo Ogone.

--Eating Frogs with Your Online Friends: Cultural Mobility and Soft Cosmopolitanism between Eastern Africa and China by Oduor Obura.

--'Welcome to Milele'--Chinese TV Goes to Tanzania by Anke Bartels.

--Ecocide and Sino-East African Relations in Yvonne Owuor's The Dragonfly Sea by Edgar Fred Nabutanyi.  

--Framing the Dragon: Popular Local Tales about Chinese at Ahero Highway Interchange Site in Kenya by George Otieno Odhaimbo.

--Intercultural Communication Strategies: Between Kenyan Kiswahili-Speaking Workers and Chinese Construction Workers by John Obiero Ogone.

Digital Diplomacy in Africa: China Moves Forward While US Stumbles

 The Atlantic Council published on 11 September 2026 a commentary titled "The US Must Become Africa's Partner on Technology and AI.  It Can Do So with Soft Power" by Troy Fitrell and Kathryn Fitrell.

China has a digital strategy for Africa, but the United States does not. It recently cancelled a useful component for such a strategy, but it is not too late to revive it. 

Egyptian Experts Comment on Xi Jinping's Visit to Egypt

 The ChinaMed Project published on 14 September 2026 an article titled "Egyptian Experts React to Xi Jinping's Egypt Visit" by Francesco Scala.

The author concluded that Xi Jinping's visit underscores Egypt's evolving role as an adept practitioner of strategic hedging rather than a pawn in a rigid bipolar rivalry.  

Moving forward, Egypt's primary challenge will be to ensure that its technological pluralism does not trigger retaliatory diplomatic friction, transforming its digital sovereignty from a strategic asset into a vulnerability.

Monday, September 14, 2026

Why Egypt Has Turned Toward China

 Forbes published on 14 September 2026 a commentary titled "Why Egypt Has Taken an Eastward Turn" by Ilan Berman.

President Xi Jinping's recent state visit to Egypt signals the extent to which Egypt has drifted decisively into the Chinese orbit in recent years.  Cairo's geopolitical orientation toward Washington is no longer a given.

Saturday, September 12, 2026

The Positive Side of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 Time published on 11 September 2026 an article titled "The Power to Unite Africa" by Josh Wilson.

This is a highly positive article on the recently completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the largest hydropower project in Africa.  Constructed on the Blue Nile, which provides more than half of the fresh water reaching the Aswan Dam, Egypt has been highly critical of the project.

The author emphasizes that the GERD should be looked at in terms of the additional electricity the project brings to the wider region.  

Recriminations Over Who Lost Red Sea Choke Point

 CNN published on 12 September 2026 an article titled "'A F***-up of Epic Proportions': Blame Game Begins after Iran-backed Houthis' Lightning Advance Down Red Sea Coast" by Nic Robertson and Lauren Kent.  

The quick seizure of strategic Red Sea coastline by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen has led to recriminations as to how it happened.  There were no airstrikes by Saudi Arabia or the United States in support of Yemeni government forces to halt the Houthi advance.  Yemen and the Red Sea now have the potential to become the second front in the Iran war.  

Houthis Further Expand Control Over Red Sea Choke Point

 The New York Times published on 11 September 2026 an article titled "Why the Houthis' Lightning Advance Threatens Global Shipping" by Sergio Pecanha, Lazaro Gamio, and Weiyi Cai. 

The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen now have firm control of the Bab el Mandeb choke point at the south end of the Red Sea, having captured Perim Island.  A distance of only 12.5 miles now separates Perim Island from Djibouti across the Red Sea in Africa.  Shipping lanes through the Bab el Mandeb Strait run less than 3 miles from Perim Island, within easy range of Houthi drones.  

Friday, September 11, 2026

Why Is China Less Active in Africa's 2026 Ebola Epidemic?

 The Diplomat published on 10 September 2026 a commentary titled "Why Is China Less Active in the 2026 Ebola Epidemic?" by Zhida Shang and Joanne Liu.

The 2026 Ebola outbreak in the DRC may result in more cases and deaths than the 2014-2016 West African outbreak, which China responded to quickly and in a major way.  Although China is better positioned to respond today, its assistance so far has been modest.

One explanation is that China faces less pressure to prove itself.  Second, scientific incentives for China's research have decreased.  Third, the Chinese public may want to see resources devoted to China and not foreign countries.  

Russia Expands Cultural Outreach in Africa

 Radar Africa published on 10 September 2026 an article titled "Russia to Open Eight New Cultural Centres across Africa."

Russia plans to open new cultural centers in the DRC, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.  This will add to the 16 it already has in Africa.

American versus Chinese FDI Flows to Africa

 Semafor recently published a chart titled "Chinese versus US Foreign Direct Investment Flows into Africa."

The chart covers eleven years from 2014 through 2024.  China had larger investment flows to Africa every year except for 2022 and 2023.  The US actually had negative investment flows for four of the eleven years.

Comment:  This is one more indication that the Trump administration's "trade not aid" (and FDI) approach to Africa has severe limitations.  Not only has US trade with Africa dropped sharply this century, but FDI flows have also been on a downward trend.  Both are determined primarily by private sector engagement. It will take a herculean effort to increase significantly both US trade and FDI.  

Houthis Strengthen Control Over Red Sea Choke Point

 Time published on 11 September 2026 an article titled "Yemen's Houthis Capture Red Sea Port City, Threatening New Front in War" by Miranda Jeyaretnam.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized the port of Mokha on the Red Sea, giving the Houthis greater ability to control the Bab el Mandeb choke point.  The Houthis reportedly received weapons and instructions from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to escalate their attacks on Saudi Arabia.  The Houthis say they will continue to confine their attacks on international shipping to Saudi vessels.