Friday, September 25, 2026

US Rejects Both Belligerents in Sudan

 The US Department of State issued on 22 September 2026 a statement titled "Efforts to Achieve Peace in Sudan."

The statement said neither the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) nor the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have made any serious effort to achieve peace.  Consequently, the Trump administration will raise the cost of continued conflict on all belligerents.  Neither the SAF nor the RSF is eligible to govern Sudan.

Thursday, September 24, 2026

Houthi Alliance with Al-Shabaab in Somalia

 The American Security Project published on 23 September 2026 an article titled "Two Shores, One Chokepoint: The Houthi-al-Shabaab Nexus" by Joshua Perez.

The alliance between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and al-Shabaab in Somalia demonstrates that the Bab el Mandeb chokepoint at the south end of the Red Sea has two gatekeepers.

Another African Bank Joins China's Cross Border Payments Network

 Business Insider Africa published on 24 September 2026 an article titled "Rwanda's Most Important Bank Joins China's Payment Network as Africa's De-dollarisation  Push Grows" by Chinedu Okafor.

Rwanda's Bank of Kigali has joined China's cross border payment network known as CIPS.   This is one more indication that African banks are seeking to de-dollarize.  

Conflict Escalates in Ethiopia

 Aljazeera published on 24 September 2026 an article titled "Fighting Widens across Ethiopia as Tigray Clashes Escalate" by Faisal Ali.

Officials in Ethiopia's Tigray Region claim federal government troops have launched a "full-scale offensive" against it while the central government charges that the Tigray People's Liberation Front launched the attack.  Whatever the case, the security situation in Tigray Region and neighboring territory has deteriorated.

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

South Sudan's President Dissolves Government

 The BBC posted on 23 September 2026 an article titled "South Sudan's President Dissolves Government Ahead of Country's First Elections" by Nichola Mandil, Akisa Wandera, and Allan Olingo.

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional government three months before the country's first election since its independence in 2011. Kiir removed the country's five vice presidents and dissolved parliament, national, and state governments.  Kiir has no viable opposition in the December election.

Mozambique Wants China to Help Reduce Timber Smuggling

 The Club of Mozambique published on 22 September 2026 an article titled "Mozambique Wants to Revise Agreement with China to Strengthen Fight Against Timber Smuggling."

China imports 90 percent of Mozambique's exported timber.  Restrictions on the export of raw logs continue to be ignored by timber smugglers.  Mozambique wants to strengthen its agreement with China to reduce smuggling and encourage Chinese companies to process raw logs in Mozambique.

Sudan's Man-Made Famine

 Aljazeera published on 22 September 2026 an article titled "Sudan's Historical Famine Echoes Through Latest Hunger Crisis" by Al-Noor Ahmed Al-Noor.

The on-going civil war in Sudan has plunged the country into one of its worst modern food crises, with conditions deteriorating sharply since 2024.  Unlike historical famines in Sudan, the current one is man-made.  The warring parties are using control over food supplies as a tool of war, while international funding fails to respond to current needs.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

China-Africa Defense Ties

 Modern Diplomacy published on 20 September 2026 a commentary titled "China-Africa Defense Ties Deepen after Beijing Security Forum" by Nadia Helmy.

The 4th China-Africa Peace and Security Forum took place in Beijing in mid-September.  Military representatives and defense officials from the African Union and 41 African nations participated.  The event reflects growing interest in security cooperation with China and diversification away from Western countries.  

Sudan's Transitional Sovereignty Council Peace Plan

Foreign Policy published on 21 September 2026 an article titled "How to Bring Peace to Sudan" by Abdalfatah Alburhan, president of Sudan's Transitional Sovereignty Council. 

The author does not agree that the conflict in Sudan is a civil war.  Rather, he described it as "an assault on a United Nations member state by a paramilitary group."  He argues that peace in Sudan must be homemade--by Sudanese, for Sudanese, in Sudan.  Peace dictated from outside will not last, although credible outside monitors can add legitimacy.  He adds that his government offers a plan for peace, which has been submitted to the UN Security Council.

China-Africa Remote Sensing Cooperation

 Tech Review Africa published on 21 September 2026 an article titled "China Expands Satellite Remote Sensing Cooperation with Mauritania and Madagascar" by Nana Appiah Acquaye.

China recently signed memoranda of conversation with Madagascar and Mauritania to deepen satellite remote-sensing applications.  This occurred during a conference with representatives from 23 African countries in Beijing hosted by China's National Land Satellite Remote Sensing Application Center.

Internet Fraud Prisoners in Madagascar Transferred to China

 Nouvelles Afrique published on 9 September 2026 an article titled "Madagascar: 50 Chinese Prisoners Transferred to China after Being Convicted of Online Fraud" by Djamila Kambou.

Fifty Chinese nationals convicted in Madagascar of online fraud were transferred to China for the remainder of their sentences.  Interpol and the Chinese embassy in Antananarivo assisted in the investigation.  

Turning the US Refugee Program on Its Head

The Washington Post published on 21 September 2026 an exclusive analysis titled "How Trump Turned a Refugee Bureau into a $410 Million Deportation Operation" by David Nakamura and Adam Taylor. 

The State Department's new Office of Remigration reverses a long-standing policy of resettling refugees in the United States to a focus on expelling them.  The State Department implements the policy by bribing governments in Africa and Latin America to accept the deportees.  

The United States has suspended accepting almost all refugees except for White South Africans.  So far, the Trump administration has deported under this program more than 25,000 people, most of them to Mexico and the others to Africa and Latin America.  This is a tiny percentage of the 985,000 deportations conducted by the Department of Homeland Security during Trump's second term.  

Monday, September 21, 2026

Ethiopian Eritrean Rivalry

 African Arguments published on 20 September 2026 a commentary titled "The Rivalry Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Is Reshaping Tigray" by Mebratu Kelecha.

Since the 2020-2022 war between Tigray region and the Ethiopian central government, political alignments have changed dramatically.  Eritrea, which was aligned with central government forces during the war, is now aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael and elements of the Amhara Fano militia in opposition to the central government. 

US Lifts Sanctions on Eritrea

 The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) published on 18 September 2026 a statement titled "Expiration of Emergency with Respect to the Situation in Ethiopia."

The Trump administration has lifted sanctions imposed in 2021 on Eritrea's People's Front for Democracy and Justice, Eritrean National Defense Forces, and several individuals.

Rebel Coalition Forms in Ethiopia

 The BBC posted on 21 September 2026 an article titled "Seven Ethiopia Rebel Groups Form New Alliance" by Michael Teferi and Basillioh Rukanga.

The Fano militia in Amhara region, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and four smaller organizations in Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions have created a coalition named Alliance for Survival to oppose the Abiy Ahmed government.

China and US Compete for South Africa's Platinum

 Semafor published on 21 September 2026 an article titled "South Africa Woos US and China with Platinum" by Alexis Akwagyiram, Tiisetso Motsoeneng, and Sam Mkokeli.

South Africa is the world's leading supplier of platinum and seeking to gain influence with both China and the United States.  The US needs it for catalytic converters and defense equipment while China needs it to develop green hydrogen as a form of sustainable energy.

At the political level, the Trump administration continues to alienate South Africa, while China is cultivating the South African government.  Washington's criticism of South Africa shows no signs of abating, which risks losing more ground to Beijing in the race to secure access to Pretoria's critical minerals.


Sunday, September 20, 2026

What Does Africa Want from Russia?

 Pressenza published on 13 September 2026 an article titled "Geopolitics: Africa Deserves Its Own Position on Russia's Policy Agenda" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

Russia's policy towards Africa lacks coordination and adequate information.  This makes it even more important that Africa avoid the mistakes of its interaction with the former colonial powers and ensures that Russia treats African natural resources in a way that contributes to local manufacturing and processing of raw materials.

Saturday, September 19, 2026

Somaliland President Seeks US Recognition During US Visit

 New Lines Magazine published on 16 September 2026 an article titled "Somaliland's Uphill Struggle for Recognition in Washington" by Theophile Simon.

Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi is on a month-long visit to the United States in an effort to obtain diplomatic recognition by the Trump administration.  While his chances of succeeding are not high, he may well obtain some commitments from Washington that will strengthen Somaliland's relations with the United States.

China Converts Economic Influence in Africa to Strategic Influence

 Modern Diplomacy published on 14 September 2026 a commentary titled "Is China Turning Economic Influence in Africa into Strategic Power?" by Nadia Helmy.

The author argues that China is leveraging its membership in BRICS and its direct investment in Africa as tools to build economic influence that gradually translate into sustainable political, security, and strategic influence.  

Friday, September 18, 2026

PLA Upgrades Communications and Intel Capability at Djibouti Military Base

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 17 September 2026 an article titled "Extended Range: China Upgrades Its Military Base in Djibouti" by Matthew Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs, and Douglas Comstock.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has installed new equipment at its military base in Djibouti that will strengthen its internal communications capabilities and enable signals intelligence collection.

This new equipment allows the PLA to maintain redundant over-the-horizon communications with Chinese ships and aircraft operating in the region and provides secure communications channels with command headquarters in China.  It probably enables the PLA to monitor the activities of other military bases in Djibouti.

China-Africa Trade Developments

 The Rhodium Group published on 14 September 2026 an analysis titled "Monitoring China-Africa Trade Spillovers" by Jeremy Smith.

The analysis focuses on the impact of changes in China's economy on trade with South Africa, Angola, and the DRC.  China's slowing growth and worsening trade imbalances are rapidly reshaping its economic relationship with Africa.  China's export surge to Africa lowers the cost of goods for consumers but makes domestic industrialization harder.  Africa should no longer expect the rising tide of Chinese demand to lift all boats for commodity exporters.

US Gives UN Funding for Somalia Peacekeeping One Year Reprieve

 Reuters published on 18 September 2026 an article titled "US Gives UN More Time to End Support for Somalia Peacekeepers" by Faisal Ali and Ammu Kannampilly.

The United States has agreed to give the United Nations another year beginning in January 2027 to wind down its funding for the African Union peacekeeping operation in Somalia. The US had earlier said it would not support UN funding after the end of 2026.

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Yemen's Houthis Tighten Control Over Southern Entrance to Red Sea

AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 17 September 2026 an article titled "Houthis Threaten the Bab al Mandeb" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr. 

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have taken control of Bab el Mandeb, the southern entrance to the Red Sea.  The Houthis are threatening Saudi Arabia and advancing an effort to disrupt global energy markets, although they are only prohibiting Saudi shipping through the Bab el Mandeb Strait.  

Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the only Red Sea littoral countries with a navy that can counter the Houthis.  Egypt has been reluctant so far to pursue military action against the Houthis.

Permanent Conflict in the Horn of Africa

 African Arguments published on 16 September 2026 a commentary titled "The Horn of Africa's Age of Permanent Conflict" by Matthew de Waal.

Foreign patrons have progressively co-opted economic and military architecture in the Horn of Africa.  The Horn now faces a transformed conflict system in which the boundaries of war and peace, state and non-state, and domestic and external are breaking down.  Drones have exacerbated the situation.

This is not a passing phase of instability but a structural recalibration of politics, with wars becoming harder to contain, distinguish from peace, and end.

China's Duty-Free Policy Will Not End African Trade Deficits

 The Diplomat published on 16 September 2026 an article titled "China's Free-Trade Offer to Africa Won't Solve the Trade Imbalance" by Matthew J. Rochat.

China's new zero tariff policy across 100 percent of tariff lines for 53 African countries will not resolve the large trade deficits that most African countries have with China.  Extractive products, especially minerals and oil, account for 89 percent of African exports to China, while 94 percent of African imports from China are manufactured goods.  Duty free tariffs have done little to alter this pattern.