Why the Iran-backed Houthis Have Stayed Out of the Conflict

 Foreign Policy published on 11 March 2026 an analysis titled "Why Haven't the Houthis Fired?" by Fatima Abo Alasrar.

In 2025, Israeli airstrikes killed Iranian-backed Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed el-Rahawi and other key officials.  US airstrikes significantly degraded their military capacity.  

Iran is now bombing Arab cities, resulting is less enthusiasm by the Houthis to support Tehran.  The Houthis also fear that Iranian attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia will drive them closer together, possibly recreating the original alliance against the Houthis.  While this changing political situation in the region does not guarantee the Houthis will stay out of the conflict, it has given the leadership reason to tread carefully.

African Leaders Are Speaking Out Against Russia

 The National Interest published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why African Leaders Are Beginning to Speak Out Against Russia" by Thomas Kent.

African leaders are increasingly speaking up about a pattern in which paid recruiters in Russia and Africa coax young men to come to Russia with promises of civilian jobs or training.  Once they arrive, they are urged or forced to join the Russian Arny and are then sent to the frontlines in Ukraine.

Ethiopian Support for Sudan's Rapid Support Forces May Jeopardize Ties with US

 The National Interest published on 11 March 2026 a commentary titled "How Ethiopia's Involvement in the Sudanese Civil War Threatens US Interests" by Liam Karr.

Ethiopian support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in neighboring Sudan threatens US private and public investment in Ethiopia.  Ethiopian Airlines support for the RSF could additionally cause reputational and legal liability for US interests.

Update on Rising Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 African Business published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Rising Again" by Harry Clynch.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have amassed troops on their shared border, leading some analysts to fear that war could be on its way.  Other analysts are less convinced that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely.  

A Different Point of View on Ethiopia's Welkait Region

 The Habesha published on 10 March 2026 a commentary titled "Legitimacy and the Limits of Political Experimentation in Welkait" by Sisay Mulu.  

The author disagrees at both the analytical and policy level with the conclusions of Zola Moges's "The Welkait Quagmire Neither Ballots nor Bullets Can Resolve" reposted below on 2 March.  

Sisay Mulu argues that Zola Moges downplayed the importance of historical administrative continuity, discussed legal and constitutional issues in abstract terms, and failed to fairly consider the practical challenges of governing a contested post-conflict area.  

China Takes Advantage of Declining US Ties with Africa

 South Africa's The Mail & Guardian published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "China Announces Major Push to Strengthen Its Partnership with Africa Amid US Trade Tension" by Brian Sokutu.

Amid strained ties between Africa and the Trump administration, China has announced a new economic package that includes full zero-tariff access for 100 percent of African imports, effective from 1 May.  It has also declared 2026 as "China-Africa Year of People-to-People Exchanges" with some 600 events planned.

Comment:  China is cleverly taking advantage of the downturn in US-Africa relations and especially the decision by the Trump administration to increase tariffs on goods imported from most African countries.  Beijing announced the zero-tariff policy at the beginning of 2026 and the people-to-people exchanges early last year.  These are not particularly new initiatives.  

It should also be noted that China has had a trade surplus with Africa for the past 15 years and the size of that surplus has been growing steadily.  A number of African countries have expressed concern over the size of their trade deficit with China.  China's tariffs have not been the primary obstacle to importing more from Africa.  Africa has to have what China wants and historically, with the exception of raw materials such as critical minerals, that has limited its exports to China.  

Nevertheless, China is able to make an invidious comparison with the current state of US-Africa relations, and at minimal cost.   

Chinese Company Expands Satellite Cooperation with Morocco and Algeria

 Europe Says posted on 10 March 2026 an article titled "China's Geely Expands Satellite Partnerships with Morocco, Algeria."

China's Geely Auto and its aerospace division, Time Space Daoyu Technology Company, signed separate partnership agreements with Morocco and Algeria to strengthen satellite-related technology and infrastructure.

In Algeria, the cooperation focuses on building domestic aerospace manufacturing capacity.  In Morocco, the emphasis is on satellite connectivity services rather than manufacturing.

Chinese Cobalt Mine in DRC Causes Health Problems

 The Environmental Investigation Agency and PremiCongo published in March 2026 a report titled "Toxic Transition: How the World's Largest Cobalt Producer Has Allegedly Poisoned Communities for Years."

A Chinese company, CMOC Group Ltd., controls two of the world's largest copper-cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo.  Thousands of people live within a few kilometers of the operations and its massive processing plant.  Local communities and civil society groups have sounded the alarm about severe health issues.  Since 2023, doctors and nurses near the mines have treated a growing list of patients.

Cash and Markets in Sudan's Conflict

 The Rift Vally Institute published in October 2025 a study titled "Political Economy of Cash and Markets in Sudan" by Omer Egemi and Calum McLean.  

Sudan is the world's largest displacement and humanitarian crisis.  The study covers Khartoum, the political and economic hub of the country, and the two regions of Kordofan and Darfur in western Sudan during the period from February to April 2025.

Sudan's economy is largely controlled by warring parties, especially the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  The study analyses the political economy dynamics shaping Sudan's crisis with particular focus on aspects affecting cash and markets.

Tigray News Interview on Iran War and Horn of Africa

 Bisrat Kebede of Tigray News interviewed me on 9 March 2026; the title of the 50-minute video is "Iran Conflict: Sparking a Global Conflict." 

The first forty minutes dealt with the on-going war in Iran while the final ten minutes focused on the situation in the Horn of Africa.  I began my remarks on Iran with the caveat that this is not my area of specialization although I try to follow developments in the Middle East as well as the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.  

UN Peacekeepers Defy South Sudan Government Order to Abandon Town

 The Associated Press published on 10 March 2026 an article titled "UN Peacekeepers Defy South Sudan Military's Order to Leave Opposition-held Town" by Florence Miettaux and Deng Machol.  

The UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan refused to comply with an order from the South Sudan government to shut down its base in Akobo, an opposition stronghold near the Ethiopian border where thousands of refugees have fled.  South Sudan government forces intend to attack the town.

Emerging Quad of North African and Middle East Middle Powers

 World Politics Review published on 10 March 2026 an analysis titled "War and Disorder Are Mobilizing the Middle East's Middle Powers" by Dalia Ghanem and Ahmed Morsy, both with the Middle East Council on Global Affairs in Doha.  

A new loosely aligned "statist Quad" of traditional middle powers--Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey--is trying to reassert itself and actively coordinate on the region's most volatile crises.  The four countries are fundamentally statist powers that view governing systems in which centralized authority, often with the military as its backbone, as the sole guarantor of social order.

Acting sometimes in concert, sometimes on their own, they are seeking to intervene in a regional order whose current chaos poses an existential threat to their national interests.  They have focused so far on the crises in Iran, Yemen, Sudan, Somaliland, Libya, and the Sahel region of Africa.  

Ethiopia: More on Genocide in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 9 March 2026 a commentary titled "When Genocide Becomes a Shield Against Accountability" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare, a lawyer focused on human rights.

This is a counterpoint to the commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit and Ella Atsbeha reposted below on 16 February.  The author concludes that genocide intensifies the obligation to examine how power was exercised across time.  Leadership that fails at every stage of a crisis loses its mandate.  

What Is Restraining Iran-backed Houthis from Entering Conflict?

 Aljazeera published on 7 March 2026 an article titled "Why Yemen's Houthis Are Staying Out of Israel-US Fight with Iran--for Now."

Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have limited their support for Tehran to rhetoric and a mass protest denouncing the US-Israeli strikes.  The Houthis seem to fear Israel intelligence and the possibility of leadership decapitation.  At the same time, the Houthi leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, said his group's engagement in the war could occur at any moment depending on developments.  

Will Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen Resume Attacks on Israel and Red Sea Shipping?

 The Hause of Saud, a Saudi Royal Family news and information platform, posted on 6 March 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthi Trigger--Why Yemen's Decision Could Be More Dangerous Than the Iran War Itself" by Abdul Mohammed.

In an excellent and timely analysis, the author explains that the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen are debating whether to join the Iran war.  If they resume attacks on Red Sea international shipping alongside the Hormuz closure, 28 percent of global oil trade faces simultaneous disruption.  

The Houthis are engaged in the single most important strategic decision facing any non-state actor in the current conflict. Their choice to enter or abstain from the Iran war will determine whether the world faces an unprecedented dual-chokepoint crisis, whether Saudi Arabia's $500 billion NEOM megaproject becomes a frontline target, and whether the global economy tips from disruption into recession.  

The Houthis must decide whether to join Iran in opposing Operation Epic Fury or abandon Iran.  There are apparently sharp disagreements among Houthi factions over how to respond.  

The Case for Genocide in Ethiopia's War in Tigray

 

Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.  

The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.  

This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.  

China's Port Network Clusters Near Chokepoints

 The Conversation published on 4 March 2026 an analysis titled "Far from Random, China's Global Port Network Is Clustering Near the World's Riskiest Trade Routes" by Dylan Spencer, Georgia Southern University, Gohar Petrossian, John Jay School of Criminal Justice, and Stephen Pires, Florida International University.

Chinese companies now own or operate terminals at more than 90 ports worldwide.  This program is not random; the investments cluster near maritime chokepoints and piracy-prone shipping corridors such as the Suez Canal/Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, and Strait of Malacca.  Proximity to critical trade bottlenecks strongly predicts Chinese port investment.  

South Africa Convinces Russia to Return Its Nationals Duped into Fighting in Ukraine

 Aljazeera published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "'Our Children Were Sold Off': The South Africans Sent to Fight Russia's War" by Chris Makhaye.  

Russia recruited South Africans to become VIP bodyguards who were then given brief military training and conscripted by a paramilitary group to fight in Ukraine.  Most of the South Africans became cannon fodder on the Russian front lines. An appeal by South Africa's president to Vladimir Putin managed to get their return to their families.   

Can American Billionaire Secure DRC Critical Minerals for US in Competition with China?

 Billionaires Africa posted on 4 March 2026 an article titled "Oskar Lewnowski: The Man Betting $9 Billion on Congo's Cobalt to Break China's Grip on America's Mineral Future" by Mfonobong Nsehe.

Orion Critical Minerals Consortium (CMC), founded by American financier Oskar Lewnowski, and Glencore announced in February 2026 that they had entered a non-binding memorandum of understanding for Orion CMC to acquire a 40 percent stake in Glencore's DRC assets, Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company, at a combined enterprise value of about $9 billion.  

Lewnowski is pursuing a financial deal that is a direct counter to Beijing's decade-long strategy of locking up critical mineral supply chains before Western governments understood what was at stake.  This potential investment would help ensure a reliable source of critical minerals for the United States and its partners.  The deal remains subject to due diligence and regulatory approvals.  

Growing Tension between Ethiopia and Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 4 March 2026 a commentary titled "As Tensions Mount, Sudan Accuses Ethiopia of New Hostilities" by Alan Boswell.  

Sudan has charged that Ethiopia is permitting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to launch drones that strike locations inside Sudan and warned Addis Ababa of unspecified consequences.  Tension in the Horn of Africa was already high; this just raises the temperature.  

Sudan Says RSF Is Operating Attack Drones from Western Ethiopia

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Elliot Nazar.

Sudan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation claimed that Ethiopia is allowing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to launch attack drones from Asosa airport in western Ethiopia against Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)-controlled territory in Sudan.  Ethiopia has denied the charge.

If true, this situation could quickly get out of control and result in SAF retaliatory attacks against Ethiopia and encourage closer SAF relations with the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  

China-US Competition for Artificial Intelligence in Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Africa Emerges as New Arena in US-China Competition over Artificial Intelligence" by Lucy Quaggin.

Africa is increasingly seen as a critical region for artificial intelligence development because of its population and economic growth.  By 2050, one quarter of the world's population will be in Africa.  American and Chinese companies are competing for the African market and support to set standards.  

Somaliland Journalist Held without Charges

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 6 March 2026 a press release titled "Somaliland Journalist Ahmed-Zaki Ibrahim Mohamud Held Without Charge Since February."

The founder of Warrame Media has been held without charges since 22 February by Somaliland authorities, who have cracked down on press freedom over the past year.  

Kenyan Families Protest Russian Recruitment for War against Ukraine

 The Associated Press published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Families of Kenya Recruits Duped into Fighting in Russia's War on Ukraine Demand Their Sons Return" by Evelyne Musambi and Vivianne Wandera.  

Russia has recruited mare than 1,000 Kenyans to fight in its war against Ukraine, many of them lured under false pretenses.  Their family members and the government of Kenya want the Kenyans returned and the practice to stop.

Implications of Iran War for Red Sea and Horn of Africa

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 4 March 2026 an analysis titled "Iran War's Impact on the Red Sea and Horn of Africa" by Liam Karr.

The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen could resume missile strikes on Israel or initiate strikes on the UAE but have not yet done so.  The US military base in Djibouti is another possible target.  For its part, Iran may engage in terrorist attacks on US interests in Africa.