Monday, March 18, 2024

Angolan President's Visit to China Had Debt High on Agenda

 The Angola Press News Agency published on 17 March 2024 an article titled "Angolan President Ends Official Visit to China."

The official Angolan press agency emphasized that President Joao Lourenco's visit to China focused on the need to renegotiate Angola's debt to China, which totals about $17 billion.  Of this total, about $12 billion is with the China Development Bank and China Export Import Bank, where the loan agreements contain "oil collateral and repayment clauses that overload" Angola's debt service capability. 

China and Angola signed 12 agreements to strengthen cooperation in sectors such as trade, agriculture, sustainable development, and digital infrastructure.  Some 30 Angolan companies participated in the Angola-China Business Forum. President Lourenco also visited Shandong Province.  He said the visit to China opened a new era in "bilateral cooperation and strategic partnership."   

Ethiopia: Tigrayan Official Calls for Internal Reforms

 Ethiopia Insight published on 18 March 2024 a commentary titled "TPLF Needs to Chart a New Path Ahead for Tigray" by Fiseha Haftetsion, coordinator of the Policy Studies and Research Center of the TPLF.

The author, head of the Justice Bureau of Tigray until April 2023, calls on the Tigray People's Liberation Front to undertake a number of changes and reforms.  Ethiopia's federal and regional constitutions contain democratic principles that must be accepted.  Tigray's development program must be based on liberalism.  Regional authorities need to make their positions known at the federal level.  Tigray should be based on meritocracy.  It needs to make better use of its natural resources.  It must allow free expression but prohibit crimes like hate speech and racism.  Tigrayans must be honest about the flaws within the TPLF.  

The Unforgivable Silence on Sudan

 The New York Times published on 18 March 2024 a commentary titled "The Unforgivable Silence on Sudan" by Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US ambassador to the United Nations.

Thomas-Greenfield said that "civil war has turned Sudan into a living hell" as little help has gone to the Sudanese people.  The UN Security Council finally called for a cessation of hostilities, but it does not change the fact that the international community and media have been largely quiet.  The world's silence and inaction need to change.

Kenya's Ruling Party Seeks to Surpass CPC

 Kenya's Nation published on 16 March 2024 an article titled "Why President Ruto's UDA Has Reached Out to China's Communist Party" by Ndubi Moturi.  

Kenya's ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is seeking funding of 1 billion shillings ($7.4 million) from the Communist Party of China (CPC) to support its political activities and to build a new party headquarters.  The UDA made the request last week to a visiting senior CPC delegation.  The secretary general of the UDA said the party's goal is to surpass the 70 years that the CPC has ruled in China.

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Russia-Eritrea Strategic Alliance

 PIME Asia News published on 11 March 2024 an article titled "The Strategic Alliance between Russia and Eritrea" by Vladimir Rozanskij.

This article describes the increasingly important relationship between Russia and Eritrea in recent years.

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Prospect of Famine Increases in Sudan

 Aljazeera published on 16 March an article titled "UN Warns Five Million Could Suffer 'Catastrophic ' Hunger in Sudan Amid War."

Following the refusal of the Sudan Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to observe a Ramadan ceasefire, the UN Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator declared half of Sudan's 50 million people now require food aid and almost 18 million "are on the road to famine."

Somalia: Al-Shabaab Attacks Hotel in Capital

 The New York Times published on 15 March 2024 an article titled "Shabab Gunmen Penetrate Heavy Security to Besiege Hotel in Somalia" by Abdi Latif Dahir.

Five al-Shabaab terrorists stormed a hotel in a highly fortified section of Mogadishu on 14 March and engaged security forces for 12 hours. They killed 3 people and injured 27 before they were killed.  The attack is a reminder that al-Shabaab is still able to conduct high profile suicide attacks in the capital.

China Seeks To Secure Dual Use Ports and Supply Lines in Africa

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies published on 14 March 2024 an analysis titled "China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Sanction-Proof Supply Lines and Dual-Use Ports" by Benedict Hamlyn.

Beijing's strategy in Africa is to court foreign policy influence in order to sanction-proof supply chains and develop dual-use ports for both commercial and military purposes.  The author concludes that as the US-China relationship moves into stormier waters, China will continue to expand its naval reach and supply chain resilience, particularly as its declining economic surplus will see it concentrate financing on geostrategically important locations off the Atlantic coast and in the Indian Ocean.

Friday, March 15, 2024

Update and Background on Houthi Attacks on Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Shipping

 The BBC published on 15 March 2024 an article titled "Who Are the Houthis and Why Are They Attacking Red Sea Ships?"

Since last November, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have on numerous occasions attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden with drones and missiles.  These attacks have resulted in damage to 34 ships and one that later sank in the Red Sea.  The Houthis claim they are only attacking ships with links to Israel, but many of these vessels had no connection with Israel.  

Can Sudan's Army Extend Victory Beyond Radio and TV Station?

 Aljazeera published on 15 March 2024 an article titled "Can the Sudanese Army Sustain Its Recent Battlefield Success?" by Mat Nashed.

The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) recaptured on 12 March the national radio and television building in Omdurman from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).  The SAF's recent victory casts doubt on the RSF's ability to control Sudan but leaves open whether this is a turning point in the war. 

Chinese Companies Are Now Number One and Two Smartphone Vendors in Nigeria

 Benjamindada.com posted on 14 March 2024 an article titled "How Xiaomi Overthrew Samsung in Nigeria's Smartphone Wars" by Andrew Christian.  

Chinese-owned Xiaomi has passed South Korean-owned Samsung as the second most preferred smartphone brand in Nigeria, Africa's largest IT market.  Chinese-owned Transsion remains in first place in Nigeria with 66 percent of the smartphone market.  Transsion is the leading smartphone product in Africa.  Samsung remains the second largest vendor in Africa.  

Thursday, March 14, 2024

China's Red Sea Hypocrisy

 Nikkei Asia published on 13 March 2024 an article titled "Red Sea Inaction Proves China Is Not a 'Responsible Stakeholder'."

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (Republican, Florida) argued that based on what is happening in the Red Sea, "Beijing has no interest in sharing governance responsibilities or addressing global issues."  Rather than confront the Iranian-backed Houthis, China allies with Iran and buys its oil.  

Russia and China Lead Disinformation Campaigns in Africa

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 13 March 2024 a report titled "Mapping a Surge of Disinformation in Africa."

The Washington-based Africa Center documented 189 disinformation campaigns in Africa during 2023.  Russia was the primary sponsor, running 80 documented campaigns targeting more than 22 countries.  This represented nearly 40 percent of all disinformation campaigns in Africa.  The Communist Party of China was the second most prolific Africa-wide sponsor of disinformation with five known regional campaigns.  The Russian and Chinese campaigns were designed to advance their geostrategic interests and shape narratives that undermine democratic processes, promote coups, stoke anti-Western and anti-United Nations sentiment, and spread confusion about climate change. Other important sponsors of disinformation campaigns were the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.  

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Chinese Workers in Africa Reach New Low at Least Since 2009

 The China Africa Research Initiative at John Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies posted in March 2024 numbers on Chinese workers in Africa from 2009 through 2022.  

By the end of 2022, the number of Chinese workers in Africa hit a low since 2009 of 88,371.  This is down from a peak in 2015 of 263,696.  At the end of 2022, the top five countries with Chinese workers were the DRC, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, and Angola.  These five countries accounted for 42 percent of Chinese workers in Africa.

These figures include Chinese workers sent to work on Chinese companies' construction contracts in Africa and Chinese workers hired for other labor services who are reported by Chinese contractors.  The numbers do NOT include informal migrants such as traders and shopkeepers.

Comment:  There are no reliable figures for the number of Chinese traders, shopkeepers, and temporary residents such as professional personnel and students in Africa.  But the figure for the number of workers in Africa significantly understates the total amount of Chinese residing in or visiting Africa at any given time.  The COVID-19 pandemic probably contributed to a large reduction in the number of Chinese residing in Africa and it is doubtful that they have subsequently returned.  

Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Russian Orthodox Church Is Extending Influence in Africa

 Foreign Policy published on 12 March 2024 an article titled "Russia Is Waging Spiritual War in Africa" by Elisabeth Braw.

The Moscow Patriarchate of the Russian Orthodox Church is wooing priests away from the Patriarchate of Alexandria in Egypt and elsewhere in Africa.  The defections are designed to bolster Russian influence in Africa.  

China-Africa Economic Engagement

 The International Monetary Fund published in February 2024 a working paper titled "Navigating the Evolving Landscape of China and Africa's Economic Engagements" by Wenjie Chen, Michele Fornino, and Henry Rawlings.  

The paper examines the evolution of trade, loans, and investment since the early 2000s, and the subsequent shift in the relationship triggered by the commodity price collapse in 2015 and by the COVID-19 pandemic.  The potential effects on the African continent of a further slowdown in Chinese growth are analyzed, highlighting the varying effects on different countries in Africa.

China-Africa trade continues to increase, although China's exports to Africa are growing much more rapidly than Africa's exports to China.  Chinese loans to Africa were once highly important but have declined sharply since reaching a peak in 2016.  China's foreign direct investment in Africa remains modest, reaching only about 4 percent of total investment stock on the continent.

Somalia: Puntland Election Has Plusses and Minuses

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 12 March 2024 a commentary titled "Lessons from the Missed Opportunity in Puntland's Polls."

A recent election in Somalia's state of Puntland was peaceful but the ICG concluded it missed an opportunity by pursuing a clan-based indirect voting model rather than universal suffrage.

Monday, March 11, 2024

Senate Testimony of US Africom Commander

 General Michael E. Langley, Commander of the U.S. Africa Command, testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services on 7 March 2024.  

General Langley covered the continent but singled out the situation in Somalia, the Red Sea crisis, and Libya.  He was critical of Russian disinformation, the "predatory tactics" of Chinese and Russian companies and acknowledged that the United States seeks "to out-compete the PRC in the security cooperation arena."  

Kidnapping of Chinese in Nigeria Continues to Be a Problem

 The Nigerian Tribune published on 7 March 2024 an article titled "Chinese Engineer Kidnapped, Civil Defense Officer Killed in Kogi" by Yekini Jimoh.

A Chinese road engineer was kidnapped, and a Nigerian Security and Civil Defense Corps officer assigned to protect the engineer was killed recently in south central Nigeria.

Comment:  Kidnapping has been an ongoing problem for Chinese nationals and other expatriates for many years in different parts of Nigeria.  The usual objective of the kidnappers is a ransom payment.  

Friday, March 8, 2024

China-Sierra Leone Relations

 The South China Morning Post published on 2 March 2024 an article titled "Sierra Leone Leader's Visit to China Shines a Light on Xi Jinping's Challenge to the West" by Jevans Nyabiage.

The President of Sierra Leone was Africa's first leader to visit China this year.  While the leaders of both countries said all the right things during the 5-day stay, the president of Sierra Leone did not appear to obtain much by way of new financial commitments.  

China Acknowledges Harm from Houthi Red Sea Attacks

 The South China Morning Post published on 8 March 2024 an article titled "China's 'Two Sessions' 2024: Red Sea Crisis 'a Big Challenge' for Beijing, Says Ambassador" by Zhao Ziwen.

China's ambassador to Egypt acknowledged on the sidelines of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in Beijing that Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea pose a huge challenge for China.  Beijing's trade with Europe is being impacted negatively and its extensive investments in Egypt and the Suez Canal Zone are threatened.  

New Normal in the Khartoum Capital Region

 Aljazeera posted on 8 March 2024 a 20-minute podcast titled "The Take: Sudan's New Normal" with Hiba Morgan, Aljazeera's correspondent resident in Omdurman.

Hiba Morgan is one of the very few journalists to remain in the Khartoum capital region and to continue reporting on the situation in Sudan.  In this podcast, she describes her personal challenges and for many residents almost impossible conditions of living in an urban area frequently subject to artillery fire between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. 

Another Analysis of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 March 2024 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Somaliland Gambit Rattles a Shaky Horn" by Jussi Grut, a researcher focusing on the history and politics of East Africa.

The author concludes that while conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia is unlikely, this diplomatic row is further destabilizing a fragile region.  It may also revive the possibility of closer ties between the Ogaden National Liberation Front in Ethiopia and an increasingly upset Somalia.  Without significant investments in infrastructure, the Memorandum of Understanding is not likely to affect Ethiopia's import or export of goods. 

China Is Critical to Africa's Digital Development, But At What Cost?

 The Conversation published on 27 February 2024 a commentary titled "Africa Needs China for Its Digital Development--But at What Cost?" by Stephanie Arnold, University of Bologna.

China's involvement by companies such as Huawei and ZTE has been critical in African digital development. While it is often argued that China has been successful because it offers the cheapest technology, the author suggests it is due more to the fact that Chinese contractors are attractive partners because they offer full package solutions that include financing. 

The downside is that China seeks to promote Chinese digital standards and norms, including its technological and ideological principles.  That includes China's interpretation of human rights, data privacy, and freedom of speech.  China's Digital Silk Road seeks to establish a Sino-centric global digital order.  Over-reliance on a single infrastructure supplier makes the client more vulnerable and can result in digital authoritarianism.  The remedy is to diversify infrastructure supply.  

 

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Prediction of Possible Famine in Sudan

 Reuters published on 6 March 2024 an article titled "Millions of Sudanese Go Hungary as War Disrupts Food Supply" by Nafisa Eltahir.

Aid agencies are now unable to deliver food to many areas of war-torn Sudan.  At least one aid agency is suggesting the possibility of a biblical style famine in Sudan.