Guinea: China and the US Compete

 The Atlantic Council published on 24 February 2026 a commentary titled "In Guinea, the US Has a Rare Opportunity to Gain an Edge Over China" by Rose Keravouri and Maureen Farrell.

Recognizing the risks of overreliance on a single external partner and frustrated with Chinese firms' opacity and non-compliance with local requirements, its leadership has signaled a willingness to push back against China's mining domination.

The Trump administration invited President Mamady Doumbouya to Washington in early February and is encouraging the American private sector to invest in mining opportunities in Guinea.  The US is also exploring security cooperation with Guinea, which now offers a good opportunity for increased engagement with the United States.

Yemen, Red Sea, and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 20 February 2026 a brief titled "Yemen, Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.  

This is a summary of U.S. policy during the Trump administration in Yemen and security issues in the Red Sea.  

Is Ethiopia Preparing for War?

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 25 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Prepares for War: Africa File Special Edition" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The analysis concludes that the Ethiopian federal government will likely launch an offensive against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) within the next month to neutralize the TPLF and its role in an emerging, loose anti-Ethiopian federal government coalition consisting of Eritrea, the TPLF, and other Amhara and Oromo ethnic nationalist groups.  

Angola's State Oil Company Seeks $4.8 Billion Loan from China

 Angolan Mining Oil & Gas published on 26 February 2026 an article titled "Sonangol Seeks $4.8 Billion Loan from China to Fund Lobito Refinery Expansion" by Makungu Coco.  

Sonangol, Angola's state oil company, is pursuing a $4.8 billion loan from Chinese financial institutions to accelerate construction of its new refinery at the Atlantic port of Lobito.  This would be Sonangol's first major loan from China in seven years.

UN Security Council Sanctions 4 Commanders in Sudan's Rapid Support Forces

 The Associated Press published on 25 February 2026 an article titled "UN Sanctions 4 Commanders in Sudan's Paramilitary Force Accused of Atrocities in Sudan" by Edith M. Lederer."

The UN Security Council imposed sanctions on 4 commanders of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces suspected of atrocities against civilians.  They face UN travel bans and financial freezes.  

Chinese Oil Companies in Niger in Line of Fire

 US Africa Command's Africa Defense Forum magazine published on 10 February 2026 an article titled "Rebels Target Niger Junta's Oil Revenue."

The Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice is engaged in a campaign to topple the military junta in Niger and restore elected President Mohamed Bazoum.  A significant part of the junta's revenue is generated by the oil pipeline from Niger to Benin.  The China National Petroleum Corporation and its subsidiary West African Oil Pipeline Company constructed the pipeline and continue to be engaged in its operations.  Most of the exported crude goes to China.  

China's involvement in the project has put Chinese oil companies in harm's way.  Beijing now seeks to find a way to protect both its investment and personnel still involved in the project from attacks by the Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice.    

Ethiopian Crackdown on Independent Media

 The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 24 February 2026 a news release titled "Ethiopia Revokes Addis Standard's License Amid Escalating Crackdown on Independent Media."

The Ethiopian Media Authority (EMA) revoked the Addis Standard's online media registration certificate effective 24 February.  The EMA accused the Addis Standard of violating Ethiopian laws and endangering the national interests of the country.  The action is part of a crackdown on independent media in Ethiopia.

Head of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces Owns Property in UAE

 The Sentry published in February 2026 a report titled "Dubai Properties Linked to Hemedti."

Mohamed "Hemedti" Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is closely linked to a $1.7 million property portfolio in the United Arab Emirates.  

Fault Lines in the Horn of Africa

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats published in March 2026 a major report titled "Fault Lines in the Horn of Africa: The Gulf States, Turkey and Israel Battle for Red Sea Influence" by Liam Karr and Michael DeAngelo.  

This is an extensive study on the current situation in the Horn of Africa with special reference to the roles of Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.  It includes detailed recommendations for US policy.  

China in Al-Qaeda's Crosshairs

 War on the Rocks published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "China Now Finds Itself in Al-Qaeda's Crosshairs" by Colin Clarke and Lucas Webber, both with the Soufan Center.

Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations in the Arabian Gulf and Africa are now including China as part of its enemy hierarchy due in large part to Beijing's treatment of the Muslim Uyghur population in Xinjiang Province.  

Allegations Russian Orthodox Church Recruits Kenyans for War Against Ukraine

 Religion News Service posted on 17 February 2026 an article titled "Watchdogs Say Russian Church Helped Recruit Young Kenyans Who Have Fought in Ukraine" by Frederick Nzwili.

There are reports that the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) branch in Kenya played a role in a few cases recruiting Kenyans to go to Russia and who eventually ended up on the front line of the war against Ukraine.  The ROC denies that it sent any Kenyans to Russia to fight in Ukraine.

Critical Minerals: Africa, US, and China

 Mining Focus Africa published on 23 February 2026 an article titled "Mining Indaba 2026: Event Highlights Africa's Mining Opportunity Amid Global Competition" by David Christianson.  

The United States showed up in force at the 2026 Africa Mining Indaba in Cape Town, South Africa.  The conference followed the announcement of Project Vault, a $12 billion US initiative to build a strategic stockpile of critical minerals.  An underlying theme of the conference was US-China competition for Africa's critical minerals.  

Trump Administration Ends Humanitarian Aid to Seven African Nations

 Press TV posted on 23 February 2026 an article titled "Trump Admin Terminates 'Lifesaving' Aid Programs to Seven African Countries: Report."

The Atlantic magazine reported that the Trump administration has decided to end humanitarian aid programs in seven African countries because there is no strong connection between the humanitarian response and US national interests.  The seven countries are Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, and Zimbabwe.  

What's Behind Risk of War Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

The Conversation published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on Edge Again: What's Behind the Growing Risk of War" by Yohannes Gedamu. 

The author argues that landlocked Ethiopia's desire for maritime access, Eritrea's support for armed dissident groups in Ethiopia, and Eritrea's omission from the peace process that ended the Tigray war are the primary drivers of current tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopia and Eritrea Play Cat and Mouse Along Border

 Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Diplomacy, Eritrea's Escalation, and the Future of the Horn of Africa" by Bemnet Alemayehu.  

Ethiopia's minister of foreign affairs sent a letter on 7 February to his counterpart in Eritrea expressing serious concern over Eritrea's military penetration deeper into Ethiopia's northeastern border areas.  Ethiopia charged the troops violate the country's territorial integrity and demanded their immediate withdrawal. At the same time, Ethiopia called for diplomatic engagement to avoid reciprocal military escalation.

Ethiopia Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Ambiguous Letter Said More Than It Stated" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda. 

The author raises interesting questions about the substance and form of the letter.   

A facsimile of the 7 February letter between the two foreign ministers has been posted online.  Read it and decide for yourself what kind of message Ethiopia is sending to Eritrea and the world.  Is the letter an example of what Professor Don Levine called Ethiopia's Amharic tradition of "Wax and Gold?"  

China's Digital Program in Africa

 Foreign Policy Watchdog posted on 20 February 2026 an article titled "The Shifting Sands of Influence: China's Strategic Investment in Africa's Digital Infrastructure."

Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE currently control about 40 percent of Africa's internet bandwidth and hold over 65 percent of smartphone market share in key African countries.  It is questionable if the West can respond effectively.  China may shape the continent's digital destiny.

Ukraine Competes with Russia and China in Africa

 Euromaidan Press, an on-line independent newspaper run by Ukrainian volunteers, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Ukraine Keeps Losing African Allies--And What Russia and China Built While No One Watched" by Peeter Helme.

Africa is the location of competition between Ukraine, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other.  Ukraine is losing.  Eight African countries now vote against Ukraine in the UN General Assembly (UNGA), up from one at the outbreak of Russia's attack against Ukraine in early 2022.  Support for Ukraine collapsed from 28 African countries in 2022 to 10 during a UNGA vote in February 2025.  Most are now non-committal.    

The article attributes this loss of African support for Ukraine to a Russian disinformation campaign in Africa, an expanded scholarship program, Russian Orthodox Church outreach, and mercenary support in several countries.  Russia's efforts in Africa are assisted by its ally, China, which has a massive economic engagement with the continent.  China also has 53 embassies in Africa, Russia 40, and Ukraine only 18.  The asymmetry in all categories of engagement is vast.

The article concludes that the ground shifted not because African countries support Russia's war, but because Moscow and Beijing built systems that reward distance from Kyiv.  

The Legacy of Russia's Wagner Group in Africa

 Nigeria's The Authority published on 20 February 2026 an article titled "As Russia Takes Over the Wagner Group: Implications for Africa" by Ipole Amajama.  

The government of the Russian Federation has taken over the Wagner Group under the guidance of the Foreign Intelligence Service.   As a result, it has become part of the state-led strategy of influence and power projection.   Much of its effort in Africa is focused on a media campaign of disinformation.  

China Reengages with Libya's Government of National Unity

 Africa Press posted on 20 February 2026 an article titled "China Returns to Libya with New Economic Partnership" by Tamara Pro.

Closed since 2014 for security reasons, China reopened its embassy in Tripoli late last year and recently appointed an ambassador.  Subsequently, China signed a number of economic agreements with the Government of National Unity (GNU). China will likely begin to increase its purchase of Libyan oil and may expand the port of Tobruk in eastern Libya.

China will continue to maintain balanced relations between the GNU in western Libya and the Government of National Stability that controls eastern Libya.

Ethiopia: Tigray Is Under Siege Again

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray Is Under Siege Again" by Kiros Nigus Thegay, a human rights advocate.

Siege-like conditions prevent Tigray Region from returning to normal. The author argues that the federal government is engaged in "weaponized starvation" and "economic sabotage."  

Russia Recruits 1,000 Kenyans for War Against Ukraine

 The BBC posted on 19 February 2026 an article titled "Over 1,000 Kenyans Enlisted to Fight in Russia-Ukraine War, Report Says" by Wycliffe Muia.  

Kenya's National Intelligence Service reported that 89 Kenyans were on the frontlines of Russia's war with Ukraine in February, but 1,000 Kenyans have been recruited to fight for Russia.  Kenya asked Russia to stop the conscription of its nationals.  

Sudan: Quad Peace Plan Flounders

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 19 February 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo and Elliot Nazar.  

The Quad (United States, UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia) peace proposal is stalled due in large part to the fact that the UAE supports the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Egypt and Saudi Arabia support the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  Neither the RSF nor the SAF has fully committed to the Quad ceasefire proposal.  Ethiopia's support for a new RSF military campaign in Sudan's neighboring Blue Nile state is further complicating any peace settlement.  

Israel, Somaliland, and the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 19 February 2026 a 27-minute podcast titled "Israel, Somaliland and the Horn" with Alan Boswell and Asher Lubotzky, Israel-Africa Relations Institute.

Lubotzky commented that Israel is trying to improve relations across Africa.  In eastern Africa, its closest ties are with Ethiopia.  It also has good relations with South Sudan and Kenya.  They are up and down with Uganda and not so good with Eritrea.  Israel is making every effort to remain out of the Sudan conflict.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland was based primarily on its goal to develop a strategic link with a territory that is close to the Houthis in Yemen.  The Houthi issue drove Israel to recognize Somaliland where it can improve its intelligence operations at the southern end of the Red Sea and into Yemen.  The decision had little or nothing to do, as is often alleged, with moving Gazans to Somaliland or the Ethiopia-Egyptian dispute.  

Israel recognizes that Somaliland took a chance by recognizing Israel, which could result in Houthi attacks aimed at Somaliland.  

Can Ethiopia's Strong Growth Rate Continue?

 Foreign Policy published on 18 February 2026 an article titled "What's Behind Ethiopia's Double Digit Growth: And Can Addis Ababa's Boon Last?" by Nosmot Gdabamosi. 

Ethiopia's impressive growth rate is being driven by floating the exchange rate for its currency, the birr, and strong exports of coffee and gold.  But high debt and involvement in Sudan's civil war could reverse the current positive numbers.   

UN Report Suggests Rapid Support Forces Genocide in Sudan

 UN News published on 19 February 2026 an article titled "Sudan: 'Hallmarks of Genocide' Found in El Fasher, UN Investigators Detail Mass Killings and Ethnic Targeting" by Vibhu Mishra.

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) carried out ethnically targeted killings, widespread sexual violence, and enforced disappearance during their late-October takeover of El Fasher in Sudan's Darfur Region.  They committed three underlying acts of genocide, which is the only reasonable inference you can take from the RSF killings.