Iran and the Horn of Africa

 The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 5 August 2026 an analysis titled "Iran and the Horn of Africa: Evolving Interests Since the Current Conflict" by Eric Lob.

This study suggested the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen would open a second maritime front by disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea and that Teheran will try to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa.  It will be constrained, however, by the geopolitical complications of its relations with the region and by its own economic challenges.

The Political Economy of Coffee in Ethiopia

 The Rift Valley Institute published in September 2026 a report titled "Beyond the Bean: The Political Economy of Coffee in Ethiopia" by Shiferaw Muleta Eyana.

This report covers three case studies conducted in three major coffee belts: Sidama-Gedeo-Guji, Kaffa-Bench-Sheko-Sheka, and Jimma-Buno-Bedele-Ilu Aba Bora.  It covers four Ethiopian regions: Sidama, South Ethiopia, Southwest, and Oromia.  

After 2018, a major change allowed coffee farmers with a hectare or more to obtain an export license.  In practice, however, many face challenges such as limited access to finance and markets.  Coffee supplier's role as intermediaries has shrunk since the 2017 reform, as exporters can now buy directly from farmers.

Coffee cooperatives and unions now face stiff competition from traders and exporters who offer farmers immediate cash payments.  Their role has declined since the 2027 reform. Patronage and clientelism heavily influence licensing, land grants, and coffee marketing.  Corruption is widespread in the coffee sector, involving cooperative leaders, local officials, and state institutions such as law enforcement and customs.

Status of Fighting in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo.  

Ethiopian federal forces have almost completely reversed Afar and Tigrayan rebel gains in Afar Region.  They have also continued advancing on main roads toward Mekele, capital of Tigray Region.  Rebel forces have launched drone strikes on federal facilities in the vicinity of Addis Ababa and elsewhere.

Iran and the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 2 October 2026 an analysis titled "Iran and the 'Straits Game' in Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb: Calculating the Impact and Consequences" by Mohammad Alzghool.  

The author concluded that Iran's strategy relies on the assumption that rising energy prices, market uncertainty and public pressure will increase the political costs borne by its adversaries.  In contrast, the United States and the Gulf countries are investing in alternative oil-export routes while preparing for countermeasures, including a potential counter blockade and military action aimed at neutralizing threats.

South Sudan's President Consolidates Power

 The International Crisis Group posted on 29 September 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan's President Jettisons Unity Government and Hardens Grip on Power" by Daniel Akech.

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional unity government in advance of long-delayed elections now scheduled for December.  Because of instability in South Sudan, the decision further concentrates power in the hands of Kiir and his family.  

Iranian Weapons and Chinese Dual-Use Components Enable Houthi Victories

Iran International posted on 1 October 2026 an article titled "Iranian Weapons, Chinese Supplies Fuel Houthi Advance in Yemen--WSJ" drawing on a 29 September Wall Street Journal article (behind a paywall) by Andrew Barnett, Daniel Kiss, and Benoit Faucon.  

Iranian weapons and growing supplies of Chinese dual-use components helped Yemen's Houthis expand their territory and increase their ability to threaten shipping through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.  The Houthis rely on Iranian-designed missiles, drones, sea mines, armed fast boats, and drone boats. They build weapons themselves.  Chinese companies supply dual-use goods that can serve civilian and military purposes.

Saudi-Trained Somali Troops Cross into Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 September 2026 an article titled "Somalia's Saudi-backed Troop Incursion Raises Regional Stakes" by Muktar Ismail.  

Undetermined numbers of Saudi-trained Somali soldiers recently crossed the porous border into Ethiopia's Somali Region for reasons that are equally unclear.  Somali Region's Liyu Police detained some of the soldiers.  

Neither Somalia nor Saudi Arabia has confirmed the military training program.  The reasons for the border crossing may be benign, but the event has led to several conspiracy theories.  

Ethiopian Conflict Contributes to Regional Chaos

 The American Security Project posted on 2 October 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Next War Is Set to Cause Regional Chaos" by Joshua Perez.

The author concludes that expanding conflict in Ethiopia could spark a regional war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan.  Access to arms, especially drones, is feeding the problem.  The window for peace, although not closed, is narrowing.

Break in Ethiopia-Eritrea Ties Could Lead to Wider Conflict

 Aljazeera published on 2 October 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea Break Ties: Does the Conflict Risk Becoming Regional War?" by Stephen Quillen.

The severance of diplomatic ties by Ethiopia and Eritrea follows months of worsening relations, driven by landlocked Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea and allegations that Eritrea is backing the rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia and Egypt have also engaged recently in tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats and continue to disagree on Nile water issues.  The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) are accusing Ethiopia of supporting the rival Rapid Support Forces in Sudan while Ethiopia accuses the SAF of supporting rebel groups in Ethiopia.

As the situation in the Horn of Africa moves increasingly out of control, the prospect for a wider regional conflict grows.  

Ethiopian Maps and Disinformation

 The Conversation published on 24 September 2026 a commentary titled "Maps Can Be Misleading--On Purpose--and Their Story Becomes History.  The Case of Ethiopia" by Daniel Waktola.

The author explains how maps on Ethiopian social media and in school textbooks inflated boundaries and engaged in outright disinformation, a practice known as maptivism.  These inaccurate maps then become evidence about who belongs where, who governs where, and who owns what.  

Ethiopian Conflict Threatens to Engulf the Region

 Foreign Policy published on 30 September 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Return to War Threatens to Engulf the Horn of Africa" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.  

Ethiopia is facing a new civil war as a powerful El Nino threatens crop production in the country.  The author argues that Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan could be drawn in to the conflict.  

Status of Conflict in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 1 October 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Counteroffensive into Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Ethiopian National Defense Force repelled the rebel offensive in northern Ethiopia and launched a counteroffensive aimed at Mekele, capital of Tigray Region.  Rebel forces continue to control parts of Afar Region's northernmost zone.

Russian and Chinese Manipulative Information Operations in Nigeria

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 29 September 2026 an analysis titled "The Raging Information Battle in Nigeria" by Mark Duerksen.

Russia and China are targeting Nigeria with manipulative information operations to erode trust, deepen polarization, and shape security narratives to gain greater leverage over Nigeria's political and economic trajectory.   The barrage of inauthentic content targeting Nigeria frequently portrays the country as chaotic, overrun by violence, and beyond repair through democratic means.

Russia is the most active foreign actor distorting Nigeria's information space.  Ghost reporters launder Russian narratives through Nigerian media.  Generative AI creates local content and fake experts.  Nigerian social media mobilizes influence-for-hire networks to advance Russia's geostrategic agenda. Russia's campaign aims to establish an anti-Western bloc across West Africa.

China has become more aggressive in utilizing inauthentic networks.  Chinese-linked systems operate as part of a larger information ecosystem through state media, paid content, and elite relationships, including China's United Front.  China uses these networks to insert geopolitical objectives into Nigerian domestic protests and election-related conversations.    

Impacts of Houthi Red Sea Attacks on African Countries

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 22 September 2026 an analysis titled "Houthi Leverage over the Red Sea Escalates Threats for Africa."

Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks on shipping in the red Sea and Gulf of Aden are intensifying pressure on global supply chains.  The attacks also have direct security and economic implications for many African countries, especially in the Horn of Africa.

There has been a resurgence in Somali piracy, growing cooperation between the Houthis and al-Shabaab in Somalia, and rising prices for refined oil products, fertilizer, and imported manufactured goods that previously transited the Suez Canal.  

China and Ghana Agree to Crack Down on Illegal Gold Mining

 Intellinews published on 14 September 2026 an article titled "Ghana, China Expand Mining Cooperation as Accra Targets Illegal Gold Mining."

Ghana and China have agreed to strengthen oversight of Chinese mining companies operating in Ghana and deepen geological cooperation as Accra intensifies its campaign against illegal gold mining. Chinese groups have a significant presence in Ghana's gold industry.  The new arrangement is intended to strengthen enforcement against illegal mining, locally known as galamsey, and even permit Chinese authorities to take action against Chinese nationals found to have breached Ghanaian mining laws. 

Update on Fighting in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 29 September 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo.

Rebel Tigray and Afar forces advanced in northern Afar region while the Ethiopian National Defense Forces reversed rebel Tigray and Amhara force advances around southern Tigray Region.  Ethiopia accused Egypt, Eritrea, and the Sudan Armed Forces of supporting the rebel coalition.

Chinese Fintech Companies Expand in Africa

 The Nanyang Technological University published on 28 August 2026 an article titled "Growing Chinese Influence in African Fintech" by Rafia Raji.

Two Chinese fintech companies, Opay and PalmPay, focus primarily on Nigeria where they have made significant inroads into the digital financial sector.  They are becoming competitive digital banks in Nigeria.  African partnerships with Chinese fintechs are adding to China's engagement in digital banking across the continent.  

Fighting in Ethiopia Could Lead to Wider Conflict

 African Arguments posted on 26 September 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Foretold War Arrives" by Matthew de Waal.

Although the strength of Ethiopia's new anti-government alliance is questionable and the Tigray People's Liberation Front is divided, the current conflict in Ethiopia is occurring during a war in neighboring Sudan, Houthi attacks disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, and ongoing terrorist activity in Somalia.  The conflict in Ethiopia could metastasize into a regional conflagration.

Kenyan Contractors Challenge Alleged Chinese Tax Breaks

 Business Insider Africa published on 28 September 2026 an article titled "Kenyan Firms Challenge Alleged Chinese Tax Breaks They Say Give Rivals a 35% Cost Advantage" by Ayodeji Adegboyega.

Kenyan contractors want the government to disclose tax and customs concessions linked to Chinese-financed infrastructure projects.  The contractors allege that Chinese companies receive a cost advantage of 25 percent to 35 percent.  A court has not yet established that Chinese contractors receive an unlawful advantage.  

Ethiopia Receives Chinese Anti-Aircraft Missile Gun Systems

 Ukraine's Defense Express posted on 27 September 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Gets Chinese Pantsir Clone FK-2000 Despite Having Six Real Ones, UAE May Be Middleman" by Ivan Kyrychevskiy.

Ethiopia received at least two Chinese FK-2000 anti-aircraft missile gun systems, which are essentially clones of Russia's Pantsir system.  The systems may have been provided by the UAE.  Ethiopia probably intends to use them for drone protection.

Ethiopia's Army Chief Accuses Egypt and Sudan of Trying to Topple Ethiopian Leader

Euro News published on 27 September 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Army Chief Accuses Egypt and Sudan of Backing Armed Alliance Seeking to Oust Abiy Ahmed" by Mohamed Elashi.

Birhanu Jula, head of Ethiopia's army, accused Egypt and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) of supporting a new alliance of armed domestic organizations to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power.  He also accused Eritrea of acting as a link between foreign backers and armed dissidents inside Ethiopia.

Comment:  For its part, the Abiy Ahmed government appears to be supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces that is fighting against the SAF in Sudan.  

China and Australia Collaborate in Namibian Uranium Project

 Ecofin Agency published on 28 September 2026 an article titled "Australia's Bannerman Funds Etango in Namibia Without Bank Debt, Gives China Rights to 60% of Uranium Output" by Idriss Linge.

Australian uranium developer Bannerman Energy has secured a $320 million investment package from the state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation Overseas for Namibia's Etango uranium project.  The Chinese nuclear group gets a 42.75 percent interest in Etango but rights to buy 60 percent of the mine's uranium production over its operating life.

Current Situation in Ethiopia

 Journalist Martin Plaut posted on 28 September 2026 a summary titled "A Brief Update on Ethiopia's 2026 War."

Fighting is escalating in Ethiopia.  On the Afar front, Tigray Defense Forces and allied Afar militants have gained the upper hand.  The military situation remains fluid along the Amhara-Tigray front.  Eritrean forces have established an alliance with the ruling party in Tigray.  Regional alliances are in flux.

Senate Democrats Press Trump Administration on Conflict in Ethiopia

 Semafor published on 28 September 2026 an article titled "Democrats Press Trump Administration to Intervene in Ethiopia" by Adrian Elimian.

All Democratic members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Africa panel criticized both sides of the conflict in Ethiopia and faulted the Trump administration for letting sanctions on regional actors lapse days before hostilities resumed.

Western Mining Companies Can Compete with Chinese Companies in Africa

Reuters published on 25 September 2026 an article titled "Western Miners Can Match China's Speed If African Governments Cut Red Tape, KoBold  President Says" by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila and Oliva Kumwenda Mtambo.

California-based KoBold Metals says Western miners can match China's pace in developing critical minerals in Africa as long as governments streamline approvals and improve coordination among regulators.