Monday, October 26, 2026

Sierra Leone Launches Chinese-backed Shipping Company

 The Maritime Telegraph published on 26 October 2026 an article titled "Sierra Leone Launches Chinese-backed Shipping Company with 50-Vessel Target."

Sierra Leone has launched the new Sierra Leone Ocean Shipping Company in partnership with China's Zhejiang Xiehai Group, which holds a 70 percent stake in the joint venture.  The state-owned Sierra Leone National Shipping Agency owns the remaining 30 percent.  The company plans to build a fleet of 50 vessels.

Sunday, October 25, 2026

The Limitations of African Military Drone Warfare

 Unmanned Africa, a digital platform and defense intelligence blog, published on 14 September 2026 an analysis titled "Are Unmanned Systems a New Frontier of CT and COIN Operations in Africa?"

This is an insightful analysis of the use of military drones in Africa so far and their limitations unless African militaries improve the strategies for their employment and counter use.  

While unmanned aerial systems have given African militaries greater lethality and stronger intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support, their employment has not meaningfully changed the trajectory of the continent's conflict zones.  

For African militaries, the problem is not simply the acquisition of new technologies, but the failure to translate them into effective military capabilities and tactical success at the theatre level.  African militaries must rethink how unmanned systems are integrated into broader force structures and operations.

African militaries have given insufficient attention to counter-drone capabilities.  Their procurement record suggests that unmanned system acquisition remains weighted towards offensive platforms, with less emphasis on capabilities for detecting, tracking, jamming, and intercepting small, low-flying armed commercial-off-the-shelf systems.

The analysis concludes that the drone revolution will not transform counterterrorism and counter-insurgency operations in Africa.  Drones and other unmanned systems can provide important operational advantages, but their contribution to decisive outcomes depends on how effectively they are integrated into the wider force.

China Leads Drone Transfers to Africa

 Military Africa posted in 2026 a major report titled "Drone Procurement in Africa."

The report covers drone (both armed and unarmed) procurement in Africa from 2010 until 2026.  The African countries procuring the most drones of all types and uses during this period were Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Algeria, and Libya LNA.  Those procuring the most armed drones were Morocco (102), Egypt (92), Algeria (86), Nigeria (71), Libya LNA (40), and Ethiopia (36).  

China was the largest supplier with 587 drones shipped to 20 African countries, most of them sent after 2020 to Egypt, Libya LNA, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Algeria.

Israel was the second largest source with 325 drones to 12 African countries, most of them to Morocco, Ethiopia, Uganda, Zambia, and Libya GNA.

Turkey was third largest supplier with 291 drones to 11 African countries, including both sides of conflict in Libya and Ethiopia.

The United States supplied 247 drones to Africa during this period but significantly reduced deliveries after 2020.  

Iran provided 37 drones almost exclusively to conflict zones in Sudan, Libya LNA, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.  Russia supplied 27 drones to Mali, Libya LNA, and Ethiopia.

Sudan Shifts to Drone Warfare

 Aljazeera published on 22 October 2026 an article titled "How Sudan's Shift to Drone Warfare Is Fuelling a Civilian Crisis."

Drone attacks by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the Sudan Armed Forces have killed more than 160 people in recent days.  Both sides use drones in a deliberate shift towards long-range preemptive operations.  Both sides also accuse the other of deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure.  The supply chain for the drones originates in Belarus, Iran, China, Russia, Sudan, and Türkiye.

Saturday, October 24, 2026

Fixing Sanctions on Sudan

 African Arguments published on 20 October 2026 an article titled "Why Sanctions Are Not Stifling Sudan's War Economy and What We Can Do About It" by Suliman Baldo.

While sanctions on Sudan have had some impact, more often the belligerent parties in the country have found ways to maneuver around them.

The author identifies five measures to fix sanctions.  Pay more attention to subsidiaries and joint ventures established to work around sanctions. Target the entire support ecosystems around the primary bad actors.  Expand the embargo on Darfur to all of Sudan.  Engage countries such as Kenya, Egypt, and the UAE to ensure the logistic hubs facilitating evasion are eliminated.  Unwind overcompliance by banks in areas that are not targeted by sanctions to facilitate access by those in need of assistance.

Ethiopia: Developments in Tigray Region

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 23 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review."  

This update covers the period 20-23 October and discusses the fighting in Tigray and Benishangul-Gumuz Regions and recent regional and international engagement.

Africa-China Climate Cooperation

 The Diplomat published on 23 October 2026 an article titled "The Next Chapter of Africa-China Climate Cooperation" by Yike Fu.

The author says China is shifting from contractor-led cooperation in Africa toward longer-term investment partnerships.  Africa-China climate cooperation is increasingly extending beyond individual renewable energy projects toward the development of integrated green industrial value chains.  Climate cooperation is also increasingly being built through and reinforcing African initiatives and institutions.

China and Djibouti Concerned about Red Sea Shipping but Leave Action to Others

 The Diplomat published on 23 October 2026 an article titled "China, Djibouti Express 'Serious Concern' Over Threats to Red Sea Shipping" by Shannon Tiezzi.

During a visit to Beijing, the Djiboutian foreign minister met with his Chinese counterpart.  They issued a joint communique on the threat to shipping in the Red Sea.  It made clear that the onus is on other countries to solve the problem.  Neither China nor Djibouti plans to take any action.  

Somalia: Conflict in South West State

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 22 October 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo, Ziv Zellars, and Liam Karr.

South West State opposition forces seized several key towns in the state in a dispute over control of the state government.  The Somali federal government and the state government claim the opposition group is collaborating with al-Shabaab.  The conflict has taken on wider regional implications.

Friday, October 23, 2026

Ethiopia: Update on Fighting in Tigray Region

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 22 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Alexander Brown.  

This is an update on the fighting in Tigray Region, documenting small successes by both the Ethiopian National Defense Forces and the rebel Tigrayan forces.  Neither side has landed a knockout punch.  

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Africa Advances Its Interests in a Competitive World

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 22 October 2026 an analysis titled "Africa in Demand: How the Continent Is Advancing Its Interests in a Competitive World" by Fonteh Akum.

Africa is in high demand as interest-driven external powers seek partnerships that enhance their diplomatic, economic, and technological edge.  At the same time, African actors are increasingly hedging and diversifying partnerships according to their own security, infrastructure, and energy agendas.  These dynamics demonstrate that external actors and African stakeholders can form partnerships that advance both their interests--diplomacy is not mutually exclusive or zero sum.

Geopolitical dynamics--marked by both rising middle powers and ongoing great power competition between the United States and China--are shaping both external counterparts' approaches toward Africa and African states' engagement with the world.  The continent's mineral endowments are an object of increasing great and middle power attraction, and so are its security markets for defense cooperation.

Ethiopia: Growing Factions in Tigrayan Leadership

 Ethiopia Insight published on 22 October 2026 a commentary titled "Tsadkan's 'Reforms' Have Fragmented Tigray's Unity" by Negasi Awetehey, Axum University and University of Geneva.

The focus of this commentary is on the schisms in Tigrayan leadership and especially the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  It looks particularly at the role of General Tsadhan Gebre Tensae, chief of staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Force during the first half of Meles Zenawi's position as prime minister.  

Chinese and Djiboutian Foreign Ministers Pledge to Expand Cooperation

 The Ground Narrative, an independent digital media platform, posted on 22 October 2026 an article titled "When Ports Meet Power: What China's Deal Means for Djiboutian People."

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Djibouti's Foreign Minister Abdoulkader Houssein Omar in Beijing where they pledged to expand cooperation on trade, infrastructure, and security.  China established a military base in Djibouti in 2017.  The article underscores Djibouti's significant debt owed to China.

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

What is Impact of China's Global Security Initiative?

 The British Academy and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in September 2026 an analysis titled "China's Global Security Initiative and the Future of the International Security Order" by Jamie Gruffydd-Jones.  

Four years after introduction of China's Global Security Initiative it is not clear how this opaque proposal will challenge the current security order.  This paper shows that the initiative's features that have demonstrated the most promise--China becoming a more involved actor, with an approach to global security focused on domestic and non-traditional challenges--do not necessarily challenge the current order.

While there is an undeniable risk that China's state-centered approach will further promote tools of authoritarianism, there is limited evidence so far that China is seeking to create an alternative authoritarian-led international security order.

Russia's Military Engagement in Africa

 The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), a government agency, published in September 2026 a report titled "Beyond Wagner: Russia's Military Engagement in Africa in the 2020s" by Anna Ida Rock.

This is a major study prepared for the Swedish Ministry of Defense on Russia's military engagement in Africa.  It includes detailed accounts of Russian naval port calls in Africa, the value of recent arms sales, lists of military cooperation agreements, efforts to establish military bases, and the activities of the Wagner Group and Africa Corps.  It contains a wealth of recent information on Russia's military activities in Africa.

China's Security Strategy and Ethiopia

 The International Political Science Review published on 10 October 2026 an article titled "Shaping Power and Strategic Security Framing: China's Global Security Initiative in Africa, the Development-Security Nexus, and the Case of Ethiopia" by Nele Noesselt.  

This academic study concludes that Ethiopia illustrates the reach and the limits of China's discursive strategy.  Ethiopia demonstrates that even substantial economic dependence on Chinese loans and investments does not necessarily translate into sustained political alignment with Beijing's security priorities.

China's expanding global role has generated new constraints and vulnerabilities.  Persistent security risks affecting Chinese companies abroad combined with ongoing domestic economic restructuring have prompted Beijing to quietly recalibrate its overseas investment strategy.

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Update on Conflict in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File published on 20 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review."

This update covers the fighting in Ethiopia from 16-20 October.  Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) continue their battle with Tigray rebels in Tigray Region.  Ethiopian rebel forces in Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz Regions carried out their first significant attacks since the recent outbreak of fighting in Tigray Region.  The United States and Russia have separately proposed mediation.  

Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow

 The Italian consulting agency, Special Eurasia, posted on 15 October 2026 an analysis titled "Russia-Africa Summit: Moscow's Next Step Towards the Global South" by Vlad Antonov.

The third Russia-Africa Summit is scheduled for 28-29 October in Moscow.  This report examines the strategic framework underpinning Russian-African relations, the practical opportunities emerging from regional initiatives, and the significance of the summit for Moscow's efforts to consolidate mutually beneficial partnerships with African countries.

The economy will be the central theme with an agenda covering trade, investment, logistics, energy, food security, advanced technologies, and humanitarian cooperation.  A shift is expected away from declaratory agreements towards practically oriented bilateral economic arrangements.  Russia's expansion into Africa will face growing opposition not only from Western countries, but also from China.

Comment:  Russia-Africa trade is a good indicator of Moscow's relations with the continent.  In 2025, it totaled only $28 billion compared to $400 billion for the European Union and $300 billion for China.  More importantly, Africa exported only $4 billion worth of goods to Russia and imported $24 billion from Russia.  

Limits of China's Model in Mali

 Pakistan's Friday Times published on 25 September 2026 an article titled "Mali's 2026 Collapse and the Limits of China's Peace-Through-Investment Model" by Ali Asfand Salyana.

China dominates Mali's gold and lithium sectors and even expanded operations in the face of increasing jihadi attacks on government forces.  Now the jihadis are targeting Chinese interests, raising doubts about its investment and trade model in the country.

Russia Escalates Information War in Africa

The Economist published on 19 October 2026 an article titled "Russia's Escalating Information War in Africa."

Russia's information war in Africa has increased following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.  Russia is trying to make the case that it is fighting neocolonialism.  Its campaign uses cultural diplomacy, the Russian Orthodox Church, higher education and scholarships, professional groups, media ventures, and disinformation.

Monday, October 19, 2026

Challenges of Reporting the Conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Aljazeera published on 19 October 2026 an article titled "'Weight of Responsibility': Promise and Perils of Covering Ethiopia's War" by Mohammed Taha Tawakel.

This is an account of the challenges covering the war in Tigray Region by an Aljazeera team, which was in Mekelle the day federal government troops seized the capital.  

South Africa: Competing with a Surge of Imported Chinese Manufactured Goods

 The Ubuntu Times published on 14 October 2026 an article titled "South African Manufacturers Face Growing Pressure as Chinese Imports Surge."

Imported Chinese manufactured goods have flooded the South African market since the beginning of the year, primarily as a result of lower prices than comparable South African goods.  While this is beneficial for South African consumers, it can be devastating for South African companies. The article explains what South African companies need to do to compete with Chinese imports.  

Sunday, October 18, 2026

PLA Navy Hospital Ship Visiting African Ports

 The South China Morning Post published on 18 October 2026 an article titled "How a Hospital Ship Helps Buoy China's Strategic Mission in Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

A PLA Navy hospital ship, Auspicious Ark, is visiting African ports on a goodwill mission. It has completed stops at ports in Mauritania and Guinea.  It provides medical services at each stop, which average about seven days each.  

Marine Insight published on 16 October 2026 an article titled "10,000-Ton Chinese Hospital Ship Docks at Cote d'Ivoire in First Visit to the Country" by Zahra Ahmed.

Commissioned in 2025, Auspicious Ark has 18 clinical departments and 8 operating theatres.  It has a medical team of more than 100 doctors from the PLA Northern Theater Command Navy and the Naval Medical University.  

Upcoming Russia-Africa Summit

 African Security Analysis, a Swedish company that provides risk analysis, published on 6 October 2026 an analysis titled "Russia-Africa Summit 2026: Strategic Signals, Partnerships and Emerging Risks."

This is an analysis of Russia's upcoming summit with African leaders in St. Petersburg 28-29 October.  Russia's war in Ukraine continues to shape relations with African countries.  Russia's commercial engagement in Africa will be an important issue, as well as technology transfer and security cooperation.

The analysis concludes that a key question is whether the summit results in continuing transactional relationships or deeper political, military, or institutional dependencies.  

Saturday, October 17, 2026

Red Sea Shipping and Regional Conflict

 For profit SeaVantage published a guide titled "Red Sea Ports: Full List, Trade Data & 2006 Disruption Guide."

The Red Sea is a strategic artery for global trade, but shipping is being interrupted by the Houthis in Yemen following the US-Israel attack on Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The commercially motivated guide identifies the key ports in the Red Sea, discusses the significance of the current conflict, and explains why supply chains are struggling.