US, China, and AI Competition in Africa

 The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs published on 7 February 2026 an article titled "The United States, China, and AI Competition in Africa: Lessons for the Global South" by Alice Chen, Kobre & Kim LLP, and Neel U. Sukhatme, University of Michigan Law School.  

The article compares US and Chinese approaches to artificial intelligence (AI) exports in Africa and examines how these disparate approaches have produced both downstream benefits and challenges for the region.  Overall, the United States focus on domestic policy and corporate activity and China's focus on state strategy and infrastructure have presented unique opportunities and risks for African countries.  It concludes with policy recommendations for countries in the Global South to maximize benefits and mitigate risks associated with US-China AI competition.

The Flaws of "Trade Not Aid" in Africa and Beyond

 Semafor published on 19 January 2026 a commentary titled "The Flaws of 'Trade Not Aid'" by Daniele Nyirandutiye, Desmos Capital Partners.

The State Department unveiled early last year a "Commercial Diplomacy Strategy for Africa" that focused on trade and investment as the centerpiece of engagement.  The author of the commentary in Semafor argues that trade and aid were never meant to compete.  When strategically aligned, they unlock Africa's growth.  But commercial diplomacy without development capacity is not viable.  US private direct investment can play a more useful role, but only if there are adequate incentives in Washington and technical capacity at embassies to assist the private sector. 

Comment:  The author makes a particularly good point when it comes to trade.  US goods trade with sub-Saharan Africa peaked in 2008 and has generally declined since, due primarily to the sharp reduction by the United States in the importation of African oil.  But US goods exports to sub-Saharan Africa have never been impressive, peaking at $25 billion in 2014 and remaining at less than $20 billion in subsequent years.  While increased US-Africa trade is an important goal for both parties and should be encouraged, it is utter fantasy to conclude that trade will replace aid. 

Rethinking Aid in Sudan and South Sudan

 The Rift Valley Institute published in 2026 a paper titled "Rethinking Aid in Sudan and South Sudan."

More than 30 grassroots and international non-governmental organizations convened in Kampala, Uganda, in November 2025 to discuss the future of development and humanitarian aid to Sudan and South Sudan in view of the dramatic contraction of assistance, especially as a result of the dismantlement of USAID.  They proposed numerous recommendations to deal with the crisis.  

Saudi-UAE Power Struggle in the Horn of Africa

 The New Arab published on 9 February 2026 an article titled "The Growing Saudi-UAE Power Struggle in the Horn of Africa" by Jonathan Fenton-Harvey.

The author reviews the Horn of Africa from the standpoint of Saudi-UAE involvement in the numerous disputes in the region and increasing competition, especially in Sudan and Somalia/Somaliland.  

Can Chinese Peacekeepers Make a Difference along Sudan/South Sudan Border?

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 9 February 2026 a commentary titled "Can Chinese Peacekeepers Actually Change Anything in Abyei?" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.

Abyei is an oil rich region along the Sudan-South Sudan border where the China National Petroleum Corporation has been the major operator.  A UN peacekeeping force (UNISFA) with Chinese participation is stationed there.  The author questions whether the newest Chinese peacekeeping unit assigned to UNISFA will make any difference in the outcome.  

US Strategy for Access to Africa's Critical Minerals Different than China's

 Modern Diplomacy published on 9 February 2026 an article titled "U.S. Tests China's Grip on African Minerals Ahead of Cape Town Indaba" by Sana Khan.  

The US strategy for accessing African critical minerals relies on trading structures that steer African mineral output into US-aligned supply chains still dominated by Chinese refiners.  Washington is seeking to influence mineral flows without replicating China's capital intensive, asset-heavy model.  This approach reduces political and operational exposure but also limits control.

China-Africa Trade Is Increasingly Unbalanced

 The China Global South Project published on 9 February 2026 an article titled "China's Export Surge to Africa in 2025 Complicates Efforts to Rebalance Trade" by Christian Geraud Neema Byamungu.  

In 2025, China's exports to Africa rose 25.8 percent while imports from Africa grew only 5.4 percent.  The dollar value of Chinese exports to Africa was $225 billion versus $123 billion worth of imports from Africa, leaving Africa with a major trade deficit. 

 Africa's five largest recipients of Chinese goods were Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Liberia, and Algeria.  Africa's five largest exporters to China were South Africa, DRC, Angola, Guinea, and Zambia, all oil and/or mineral exporting countries.

Apparent Ethiopian Support for Rapid Support Forces in Sudan

 Reuters published on 10 February 2026 a major report titled "Ethiopia Builds Secret Camp to Train RSF Fighters, Sources Say" by Giulia Paravicini and Reade Levinson.  

The journalists report that Ethiopia is hosting a secret camp to train thousands of fighters for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group in neighboring Sudan.  Located inside Ethiopia about 32 kilometers from the Sudan/South Sudan border, the camp had 4,300 RSF fighters undergoing military training as of early January.  The recruits are mainly Ethiopian but also include nationals from Sudan and South Sudan, including from the SPLM-N militia that controls territory in Sudan's neighboring Blue Nile State.

Eight sources, including a senior Ethiopian government official, said the United Arab Emirates financed the camp's construction and provided military trainers and logistical support to the camp.  Satellite imagery confirms existence of the camp and has also detected new drone operations in the vicinity.  The camp constitutes the first direct evidence of Ethiopia's involvement in Sudan's civil war.

Chinese Construction Company Under Fire in Nigeria

 Nigeria's Newstimes published on 8 February 2026 an article titled "FG Issues Deadlines to Chinese Road Contractors."

The government of Nigeria warned China Harbour Engineering Company and its sister firm, China Harbour Engineering and Maintenance Company, that it has received complaints of substandard work, slow mobilization, and environmental hazards on key road projects across the country.  The government called on the Chinese companies to take remedial measures, adding it would no longer tolerate poor execution, undue delays, or disregard for contractual standards.

Somaliland Seeks US Recognition

 Semafor published on 9 February 2026 an article titled "Somaliland Pitches Minterals, Strategic Location to Trump" by Mohammed Sergie.  

The President of Somaliland, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, is encouraging the Trump administration to recognize Somaliland because of its strategic location at the south end of the Red Sea and oil and gas reserves.

What We Lost When We Lost USAID

 The New York Times published on 8 February 2026 a commentary titled "What We Lost When We Lost USAID" by Jeremy Konyndyk, Refugees International.

Aside from the tangible damage done to dismantled programs that aided the world's needy, American foreign assistance policy is a reflection of who our country wants to be and of the kind of world we seek to build.  The demise of the US Agency for International Development is resulting in an America that increasingly stands isolated and friendless.  

Possible Chinese Supported Military Equipment Manufacturing in Egypt

 Modern Diplomacy published on 7 February 2026 a commentary titled "Egypt Seeks Chinese Defense Tech, Manufacturing Base in Cairo" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University Egypt.

The author suggests that Egypt is seeking Chinese technology and assistance to manufacture locally advanced radar and missile systems and unmanned aerial vehicles.  Egypt sees itself as becoming a regional manufacturing hub for advanced military weapons.     

Members of BRICS Work Around Trump Tariffs

 The African Mirror published on 7 February 2026 an article titled "China-South Africa Trade Pact Signals Deepening BRICS Economic Integration."

BRICS membership allows member states to negotiate advantageous bilateral arrangements as China and South Africa are doing in the face of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and Western trade barriers.

Facing High Trump Tariffs, South Africa Negotiates Deal with China

 The Associated Press published on 6 February 2026 an article titled "Facing High Trump Tariffs, Africa's Leading Economy Says It's Close to a Trade Deal with China" by Gerald Imray.  

The Trump administration put 30 percent duties on some South African goods.  Pretoria responded by signing a framework agreement with China for a new trade deal that would give some South African products duty-free access to the Chinese market.  China would receive enhanced investment opportunities in South Africa.  US-South Africa ties have plunged to their lowest point in decades.  

Conflict in Ethiopia

The International Crisis Group posted on 3 February 2026 a commentary titled "Flare-up in Tigray Highlights Risk of More War in Northern Ethiopia" by Magnus Taylor. 

A new outbreak of conflict between Tigray Defense Forces, on one side, and Amhara militias and federal troops, on the other, underscores an escalating standoff between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).  The federal government accuses the TPLF of forming a secret pact with Eritrea amid growing tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara.    

Conflict in Ethiopia

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 5 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.  

The article describes Tigray Defense Force efforts to take territory held by the Ethiopian National Defense Force and Amhara militias.  The heightened tensions could spark a broader conflict with Eritrea.  Should war break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Egypt and the UAE would likely get pulled into it.  

As UK and US Retreat from Africa, China Steps Up Media Effort

 The Independent published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "How UK Aid Cuts Help China Win the Battle for Hearts and Minds in Africa" by Dani Madrid-Morales, University of Sheffield.

The British and American retreat from Africa is being cleverly exploited by China to win the hearts and minds of Africans.  Much of China's success is due to its all-out effort to dominate the media domain in Africa as Western outlets pull back.

Sudan Is World's Largest Humanitarian Crisis

 PBS News published on 5 February 2026 an article titled "Head of Humanitarian Group Urge's Nations to Step Up Sudan Aid to Prevent 'Biblical Famine'" in interview by Nick Schifrin with Jan Egeland, secretary-general, Norwegian Refugee Council.  

Due to the ongoing civil war in Sudan, the country has become the largest humanitarian crisis in the world today.  Too few organizations are on the ground, and they are overstretched and underfunded.  The donor community, including the United States, is not providing enough food to prevent a biblical famine.  Frontline Sudanese volunteers are largely keeping people alive.  

Fighting in Sudan Shifts to South Kordofan State

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 5 February 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo and Elliot Nazar.

The current focus of fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is taking place in South Kordofan State.  The SAF is also accusing Ethiopia of facilitating weapons shipments to and hosting RSF bases.  

Africa's Critical Minerals: Is China or the United States the Better Partner?

 The Diplomat published on 5 February 2026 an analysis titled "China and the US Want Africa's Critical Minerals, Will African Countries Actually Benefit?" by Juliet Onyino and Weilu Jiang, both at Development Reimagined.

The authors concluded that neither the American nor the Chinese critical mineral strategies fully advance Agenda 2063's vision of African-led structural transformation.  In both cases, Africa's development objectives remain secondary unless effectively enforced through negotiation and policy coordination. 

Washington Hosts Critical Minerals Summit to Counter China

 Foreign Policy published on 4 February 2026 an article titled "What Will the U.S. Critical Minerals Summit Mean for Africa?" by Nasmot Gbadamosi.  

Washington hosted this week officials from 50 nations, including Angola, DRC, Gabon, Guinea, and Nigeria, at a critical minerals summit.  The United States sees African engagement as essential in its efforts to remove Beijing's chokehold on critical minerals.  

Dismantling USAID: DOGE Must Explain Why

 Axios published on 5 February 2026 an article titled "Elon Musk, State Department Workers to Be Deposed over DOGE Dismantling USAID" by Julianna Bragg.

A federal judge ruled that Elon Musk and State Department officials must sit for depositions over their role in dismantling the US Agency for International Development.  

China's Security Engagement in Africa

 Australia's Lowy Institute published on 2 February 2026 a commentary titled "China's Security Offerings Gain Traction in Africa" by Piers Pigou.

The author argues that China adapts to Africa's emerging security priorities: countering violent extremism and organized crime and supporting maritime security and infrastructure.  It tailors its training programs, equipment transfers, and technical assistance.  The critical question is whether China's inputs align with African defined needs and priorities.  

Dismantlement of USAID Projected to Result in Many Deaths

 CNN published on 4 February 2026 an article titled "One Year on from Dismantlement of USAID, Study Projects that Global Aid Cuts Could Lead to 9.4 Million Deaths by 2030" by Lauren Kent.

The Trump administration dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID) early last year.  A new study by the Lancet medical journal projects that the human toll of these aid cuts could lead to at least 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030.

The Center for Global Development reports that the dismantlement of USAID may have led to between 500,000 to 1,000,000 lives lost in 2025 compared to previous years.  

Kenya's Ruling Party to Model Training After and Seeks Funding from Communist Party of China

 Kenyans.co.ke posted on 31 January 2026 an article titled "Ruto to Launch Political School for UDA Using Communist Party of China Framework" by Maxwell Amunga.

A senior delegation from Kenya's ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is in China studying the Communist Party of China's (CPC) organization, cadre training, and grassroots mobilization.  The delegation aims to incorporate best practices in political discipline, governance structures, and leadership development.

The Star published on 31 January 2026 an article titled "Top UDA Officials in China Ahead of Launch of UDA Party School" by Felix Kipkemoi.  

This article adds that the current visit to the Zhejiang Provincial Party School follows talks in 2024 between UDA and CPC officials on party-to-party cooperation.  The article also notes that the UDA is seeking up to $7.75 million from the CPC to serve as its headquarters, which will incorporate the new party leadership school.  The UDA is banking on the solid relations Kenya has with China to secure the funding.