What Is Restraining Iran-backed Houthis from Entering Conflict?

 Aljazeera published on 7 March 2026 an article titled "Why Yemen's Houthis Are Staying Out of Israel-US Fight with Iran--for Now."

Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have limited their support for Tehran to rhetoric and a mass protest denouncing the US-Israeli strikes.  The Houthis seem to fear Israel intelligence and the possibility of leadership decapitation.  At the same time, the Houthi leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, said his group's engagement in the war could occur at any moment depending on developments.  

Will Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen Resume Attacks on Israel and Red Sea Shipping?

 The Hause of Saud, a Saudi Royal Family news and information platform, posted on 6 March 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthi Trigger--Why Yemen's Decision Could Be More Dangerous Than the Iran War Itself" by Abdul Mohammed.

In an excellent and timely analysis, the author explains that the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen are debating whether to join the Iran war.  If they resume attacks on Red Sea international shipping alongside the Hormuz closure, 28 percent of global oil trade faces simultaneous disruption.  

The Houthis are engaged in the single most important strategic decision facing any non-state actor in the current conflict. Their choice to enter or abstain from the Iran war will determine whether the world faces an unprecedented dual-chokepoint crisis, whether Saudi Arabia's $500 billion NEOM megaproject becomes a frontline target, and whether the global economy tips from disruption into recession.  

The Houthis must decide whether to join Iran in opposing Operation Epic Fury or abandon Iran.  There are apparently sharp disagreements among Houthi factions over how to respond.  

The Case for Genocide in Ethiopia's War in Tigray

 

Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.  

The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.  

This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.  

China's Port Network Clusters Near Chokepoints

 The Conversation published on 4 March 2026 an analysis titled "Far from Random, China's Global Port Network Is Clustering Near the World's Riskiest Trade Routes" by Dylan Spencer, Georgia Southern University, Gohar Petrossian, John Jay School of Criminal Justice, and Stephen Pires, Florida International University.

Chinese companies now own or operate terminals at more than 90 ports worldwide.  This program is not random; the investments cluster near maritime chokepoints and piracy-prone shipping corridors such as the Suez Canal/Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, and Strait of Malacca.  Proximity to critical trade bottlenecks strongly predicts Chinese port investment.  

South Africa Convinces Russia to Return Its Nationals Duped into Fighting in Ukraine

 Aljazeera published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "'Our Children Were Sold Off': The South Africans Sent to Fight Russia's War" by Chris Makhaye.  

Russia recruited South Africans to become VIP bodyguards who were then given brief military training and conscripted by a paramilitary group to fight in Ukraine.  Most of the South Africans became cannon fodder on the Russian front lines. An appeal by South Africa's president to Vladimir Putin managed to get their return to their families.   

Can American Billionaire Secure DRC Critical Minerals for US in Competition with China?

 Billionaires Africa posted on 4 March 2026 an article titled "Oskar Lewnowski: The Man Betting $9 Billion on Congo's Cobalt to Break China's Grip on America's Mineral Future" by Mfonobong Nsehe.

Orion Critical Minerals Consortium (CMC), founded by American financier Oskar Lewnowski, and Glencore announced in February 2026 that they had entered a non-binding memorandum of understanding for Orion CMC to acquire a 40 percent stake in Glencore's DRC assets, Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company, at a combined enterprise value of about $9 billion.  

Lewnowski is pursuing a financial deal that is a direct counter to Beijing's decade-long strategy of locking up critical mineral supply chains before Western governments understood what was at stake.  This potential investment would help ensure a reliable source of critical minerals for the United States and its partners.  The deal remains subject to due diligence and regulatory approvals.  

Growing Tension between Ethiopia and Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 4 March 2026 a commentary titled "As Tensions Mount, Sudan Accuses Ethiopia of New Hostilities" by Alan Boswell.  

Sudan has charged that Ethiopia is permitting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to launch drones that strike locations inside Sudan and warned Addis Ababa of unspecified consequences.  Tension in the Horn of Africa was already high; this just raises the temperature.  

Sudan Says RSF Is Operating Attack Drones from Western Ethiopia

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Elliot Nazar.

Sudan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation claimed that Ethiopia is allowing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to launch attack drones from Asosa airport in western Ethiopia against Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)-controlled territory in Sudan.  Ethiopia has denied the charge.

If true, this situation could quickly get out of control and result in SAF retaliatory attacks against Ethiopia and encourage closer SAF relations with the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  

China-US Competition for Artificial Intelligence in Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Africa Emerges as New Arena in US-China Competition over Artificial Intelligence" by Lucy Quaggin.

Africa is increasingly seen as a critical region for artificial intelligence development because of its population and economic growth.  By 2050, one quarter of the world's population will be in Africa.  American and Chinese companies are competing for the African market and support to set standards.  

Somaliland Journalist Held without Charges

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 6 March 2026 a press release titled "Somaliland Journalist Ahmed-Zaki Ibrahim Mohamud Held Without Charge Since February."

The founder of Warrame Media has been held without charges since 22 February by Somaliland authorities, who have cracked down on press freedom over the past year.  

Kenyan Families Protest Russian Recruitment for War against Ukraine

 The Associated Press published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Families of Kenya Recruits Duped into Fighting in Russia's War on Ukraine Demand Their Sons Return" by Evelyne Musambi and Vivianne Wandera.  

Russia has recruited mare than 1,000 Kenyans to fight in its war against Ukraine, many of them lured under false pretenses.  Their family members and the government of Kenya want the Kenyans returned and the practice to stop.

Implications of Iran War for Red Sea and Horn of Africa

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 4 March 2026 an analysis titled "Iran War's Impact on the Red Sea and Horn of Africa" by Liam Karr.

The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen could resume missile strikes on Israel or initiate strikes on the UAE but have not yet done so.  The US military base in Djibouti is another possible target.  For its part, Iran may engage in terrorist attacks on US interests in Africa.

African Perceptions of China, US and Russia

 Afro Barometer posted on 27 February 2026 a survey titled "Popular Perceptions of Russia Lag Even as Its Influence grows Across Africa" by Aubrey Ghambi, Alfred Kwadzo, and Carolyn Logan.  

While most of the analysis is about the position of Russia in Africa, this survey of 38 African countries found that China received the best marks on positive influence (62 percent).  The United States has fallen behind at 52 percent positive rating, the European Union at 50 percent, India 39 percent, and Russia 36 percent.  The negative perceptions were more similar with China (17 percent), US (20 percent), EU (17 percent), India (20 percent), and Russia (23 percent).  

Africa's New Approach to Critical Minerals: Implications for China and the West

 Skillings Mining Review published on 3 March 2026 an article titled "The Indaba 2026 Legacy: Inside the New African Critical Minerals Framework" by Charles Pitts.

The most recent Cape Town conference on mining (Indaba 2026) demonstrated that three major African sources of critical minerals (DRC, Zambia, and South Africa) acted in a coordinated way to ensure that its raw mineral wealth is not just exported but more of it is refined in Africa for value added benefits.  For example, the DRC produces about 70 percent of the world's cobalt but now refines less than 10 percent of it.  The DRC intends to change that ratio.

The West's Lobito Corridor project for Angola, Zambia, and the DRC fits this new African narrative reasonably well, China's focus on importing raw material not so much.  

Eritrea and Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 3 March 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray and Eritrea Must Cooperate to Survive" by Negasi Awetehey, University of Aksum.  

The author argues that successive governments in Addis Ababa view relations between Eritrea and Tigray with suspicion and find it in their interest to keep old wounds active.  He calls for dialogue between Tigrayans and Eritreans, adding that Tigray and Eritrea must challenge war narratives by amplifying the public's desire for peace, rehabilitation, and economic cooperation.   

US Aid Cuts Undermine South Africa's Response to HIV/AIDS

 Devex Newswire posted on 4 March 2026 an article titled "US Aid Cuts Gut South Africa's HIV Fight" by Helen Murphy.

South Africa bears the world's largest HIV/AIDS burden.  US foreign aid cuts and the dismantlement of USAID have ripped through its response to the disease, forcing clinics to close and leaving thousands of vulnerable patients scrambling for care.  A State Department spokesperson responded that it is time for governments to take responsibility for the lives of people in their countries.  

South Sudan Edges Closer to Civil War

 The Guardian published on 3 March 2026 an article titled "South Sudan Risks Return to Full-blown Civil War as Violence Escalates" by Carlos Mureithi.  

Militia forces allied with suspended Vice President Riek Machar have increased their attacks on forces loyal to President Salva Kiir, threatening a return to full-blown civil war.

Russia Recruits Mercenaries Across Africa for Ukraine War

 Ghana Web posted on 1 March 2026 an article titled "Two Ugandans Reported Killed in Ukraine-Russia War."

The article indicates that Russia has recruited Africans to fight in Ukraine from Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Egypt, Cameroon, Ghana, and South Africa.

Comment:  This is not a complete list of African countries where Russia has recruited mercenaries.  

Ethiopia's Welkait: Amharan, Tigrayan, or Something Else?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 2 March 2026 a commentary titled "The Welkait Quagmire Neither Bullets nor Ballets Can Resolve" by Zola Moges, PhD in international law.

Welkait is a district that has been part of Western Tigray since the Tigray People's Liberation Front annexed it following the demise in 1991 of the Derg regime.  Prior to that, Welkait was part of Amhara Region.  

Welkait's strategic location at the intersection of Ethiopia's borders with Sudan and Eritrea complicates the ability to find a solution that manages to overcome long-standing ethnic, language, and cultural differences.  

The author suggests as a solution creation of a self-administered territory that might take the form of a special autonomous zone or even an additional regional state with bilingual Amharic and Tigrinya administration.  

Artificial Intelligence for Africa's Defense Forces

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published in February 2026 a major study titled "Artificial Intelligence for Africa's Defense Forces: A Toolkit for Defense Sector AI Strategy and Adoption."

This toolkit is a resource for African defense professionals to develop and adopt artificial intelligence policies, strategies, guidance, systems, and tools.  It defines and illustrates some of the most relevant use cases, discusses how to guide the development of AI systems, processes, and personnel, suggests how to adapt AI to Africa's security environment, and outlines good practices that can be used to inform the development of defense sector AI strategy.

AI is no longer a futuristic prospect for Africa's defense forces, but an increasingly embedded tactical reality shaping military operations from the Sahel to the Cape.  Like past inventions such as steam power, electricity, and the internet, AI is fast becoming an essential technology that will underpin the future of warfare.  

Is China's Media Campaign in Africa Working?

 Semafor published on 2 March 2026 an article titled "China's Media Push in Africa Has Largely Failed, Analysts Say" by Jeronimo Gonzalez.   

Although Africans perceived China's influence positively in a recent Afro Barometer poll, a Nigerian analyst believes Beijing's multi-billion media campaign to attract an audience has largely failed.  African audiences still prefer news from the West.

Comment:  The fact remains that the Afro Barometer poll of 29 countries indicates Africans have a more positive perception of China's influence in Africa than of US or EU influence.  The negative perception of all three is about the same.  

Somalia and Turkey Move Forward with New Port of Hobyo

 The Africa Report published on 26 February 2026 an article titled "Somalia: Hobyo Port Advances Amid Security Risks and Ethiopia Trade Scramble" by Mohamad Sheikh Nor.  

Hobyo Investment Company has a 70 percent stake and a Turkish-owned construction company a 30 percent share in a new port at Hobyo, which is intended to support central Somalia and possible trade to and from Ethiopia.  The new port faces challenges because it will strengthen certain local and foreign actors while sidelining those with interests in competing ports.

Ghana Tries to Shut Down Russia's Recruitment of Mercenaries

 The Associated Press published on 27 February 2026 an article titled "At Least 55 Ghanaians Killed Fighting for Russia in Ukraine War, Minister Says." 

Ghana's foreign minister commented on 27 February that at least 44 Ghanaians have died fighting for Russia in Ukraine.  He added that Russia has lured 272 Ghanaians into the battle since 2022.  The foreign minister said Ghana would dismantle all the dark web illegal recruitment schemes.  

Russia Lags Behind in Africa

 Modern Diplomacy published on 27 February 2026 a commentary titled "Africa's Rise: The 21st Century Story that Leaves Russia Behind" by Kester Kenn Klomegah, an independent researcher.  

Russia has focused on a limited part of Africa.  About 80 percent of its trade is with North African countries and South Africa.  It has sent the Africa Corps to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.  But it has largely ignored the rest of the continent.

China Replaces South Africa as Primary Chrome Processor

 Discovery Alert posted on 1 March 2026 an analysis titled "China Becomes World's Leading Chrome Processor Overtaking South Africa" by Muflih Hidayat.  

Ferrochrome production, which is essential for stainless steel, requires consistent, energy-intensive processing.  Although South Africa is the source of much of the world's chrome ore, China's coal-based power generation is more reliable and cheaper than South Africa's electricity.  Consequently, processing of the ore has shifted from South Africa to China.