Rapid Support Forces Commanders Defect to Sudan Armed Forces

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 21 May 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.  

Infighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leadership and three RSF field commanders resulted in their defection together with their troops to the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  

The SAF is using defections to fracture the RSF and rapidly integrate their troops into SAF combat operations.  The SAF is pursuing a military victory and showing no interest in peace talks.  Bringing defectors into its senior ranks may, however, complicate its command-and-control challenges.    

Dismantlement of USAID Prevents US from Responding to Africa's Ebola Outbreak

 The Guardian published on 21 May 2026 an article titled "US Is 'Simply Choosing Not to Stop' Ebola Outbreak after Massive Public Health Cuts, Experts Say" by Melody Schreiber.  

Following the dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development and massive cuts in global and domestic public health efforts, the United States appears to be doing little to stem the outbreak of Ebola in central Africa.  

China and Russia Agree to Seek New World Order

 The Raisina Hills, an independent digital news platform based in India, published on 20 May 2026 an article titled "Russia-China Challenge Western-led System in Joint Declaration."

The article assesses the joint declaration agreed to by China and Russia released on 20 May during Vladimir Putin's visit with Xi Jinping in Beijing.  The article concludes that "the declaration suggests the Russia-China partnership is evolving beyond tactical cooperation into a broader attempt to shape the ideological architecture of a future world order."

Communist Party of China Deepens Ties with Six Ruling Parties in Southern Africa

 The Respondents posted on 20 May 2026 an article titled "CCM, China's CPC Deepen Ties with Southern African Liberation Parties."

Tanzania's ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi hosted a meeting with the head of the International Department of the Communist Party of China and senior leaders from the ruling political parties in Mozambique, Angola, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe.  The parties launched the Research Centre for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. 

US Africa Command Competes with Russia, China, and Terrorist Groups for Influence

 The Washington Examiner published on 20 May 2026 an article titled "US Competing with Russia, China, and Terror Groups for Influence across Africa" by Mike Brest.

Commander of US Africa Command General Dagvin Anderson told the House Armed Services Committee on 19 May that the United States is competing with Russia, China, and terror groups across Africa.  This is being done with a 75 percent reduction in the US regional posture over the past decade, a situation which is compounded by additional drawdowns by our allies.

Africa's Critical Minerals and Great Power Competition

 Rare Earth Exchanges published on 17 May 2026 an article titled "Africa Has Become the New Geopolitical Battleground for Critical Minerals."

The article summarizes a study that examines trade flows, foreign direct investment, military relationships, diplomatic agreements, mining policy, and strategic industrial initiatives shaping Africa's critical minerals economy.  It evaluates how China, Russia, the United States, and Europe are accessing and responding to Africa's critical mineral wealth.

The entire study "In the Crosshairs: Twenty-first-century Rivalry for Africa's Critical Minerals" by Ron Matthews and Vlado Vivoda was published online on 11 May 2026 by the European Journal of International Security.  

Ethiopia: Failure of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 May 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Turned Pretoria into Abiy's Shield" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.

This account provides one interpretation for the failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement in a manner that ends conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  

Khartoum is Showing Signs of Life

 Aljazeera published on 19 May 2026 an article titled "Khartoum's Slow Recovery amid Cautious Return" by Al-Nour Ahmed Al-Nour.  

The article describes a capital city under the control of the Sudan Armed Forces that is slowly returning to life following three years of civil war that still rages elsewhere in the country.  It describes which sections of the city are showing signs of revival.

Iran War Complicates Situation in Horn of Africa

 Foreign Policy posted on 18 May 2026 an article titled "The Gulf's African Aftershocks" by Liam Karr.

The war against Iran is deepening preexisting regional proxy conflicts in the Horn of Africa and making mediation in Sudan of ongoing conflict more difficult.  It has also resulted in a reduction of Gulf State investment in the region and beyond.

Likely Impact of China's Zero Tariff Policy on African Imports (in French)

 GeopoWeb posted on 18 May 2026 an analysis titled "Africa, China, and Zero Tariffs: A Diplomatic Gesture Put to the Test by the Data" by Thierry Pairault.  

Effective on May 1, China began a policy of zero tariffs on imports from all African countries except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan.  Six African countries (South Africa, DRC, Angola, Guinea, Zambia, and Congo Brazzaville) now supply three quarters of China's imports from Africa.  Most of these imports consist of minerals, metals, and crude oil, which already enter China duty free.

A modest quantity of African agricultural products will benefit from the zero-tariff policy.  Landlocked African countries, which tend to be among the poorest, will receive little or no benefit from the zero-tariff policy because of transportation constraints.  In addition, non-tariff barriers such as sanitary standards remain in effect.  Thierry identifies several other barriers to increased African exports to China that will limit the impact of the zero-tariff policy.  He also compares the impact of EU and Chinese imports from Africa.

Thierry concludes the zero-tariff policy has less to do with rebalancing trade between China and Africa than it is an effective diplomatic tool at little cost to China but also limited in its economic impact.  

Russia's Process for Recruiting Zimbabweans to Fight in Ukraine

 Aljazeera published on 14 May 2026 an article titled "Zimbabweans Lured into Russia's War as Families Plead for Their Return" by Enos Denhere.

This is a detailed account of the process Russia uses to recruit Zimbabweans, especially those who went to South Africa and failed to find employment, to fight on Moscow's side in the war against Ukraine.  In many cases, recruiters used deception and false promises to lure the Zimbabweans.  

The Hollowing Out of the US State Department

 CNN published on 16 May 2026 an article titled "As Global Crises Multiply, Scores of US Diplomats Say They Have Been Forced Out" by Jennifer Hansler.

An estimated 2,000 Foreign Service officers have been forced out or left by their own choice the U.S. Department of State in the past year.  Of 195 ambassadorial positions overseas, 115 are currently vacant, an unprecedented situation this late in an administration.  

This hollowing out of the State Department will have far reaching implications for the ability of the United States to project power and deliver on its foreign policy priorities.

Do China's Digitally Connected Products Pose Security Issues in Africa?

The China-Africa Security Radar published on 17 May 2026 a commentary titled "Chinese Clean Tech Is Raising Alarm Bells in the West--Should Africa Be Worried Too?" 

Western governments are raising concerns about the impact of Chinese-supplied digitally connected electric vehicles and solar power inverters connected to the internet.  They have the potential to harvest large amounts of geospatial and personal data.

The United States and certain European countries are banning some of this Chinese equipment.  China counters that these are excuses to protect less competitive Western products.  These Chinese products are being woven even more deeply into African markets and raise questions about data protection.  

Ethiopia: A Song Upends a Country

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 May 2026 a commentary titled "Teddy Afro's Mourning Tent and Ethiopia's Fractured National Imagination" by Belete Addis Yemata, University of Melbourne.

Teddy Afro's new album Etorika and especially the opening song, Das Tal (loosely meaning "pitch the tent"), has drawn more than 140 million views on You Tube and ignited political arguments throughout the Ethiopian community.  Reactions to Das Tal exposed political loyalty, politico-religious alignment, competing ideas of Ethiopia, and different opinions about Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.  

Blue Nile State Location of Recent Fighting in Sudan

 The Middle East Monitor published on 12 May 2026 an article titled "Nearly 50,000 Displaced in Sudan's Blue Nile State Since Start of 2026."

The International Organization for Migration reported that almost 50,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of 2026 in Sudan's Blue Nile State as a result of fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  Blue Nile State borders both Ethiopia and South Sudan.

Looking Back and Forward at Sudan over the Long Term

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 May 2026 a 35-minute podcast titled "Sudan, and a Region and World in Upheaval" with Alan Boswell and Nasrine Malik, journalist and author.

The long-standing problem in Sudan is the control over resources by a certain group and the marginalization of the rest.  The old Sudan is gone and cannot be reconstructed.  The country requires a whole new approach, which may take years or more to achieve.

The United States and United Kingdom lack either the interest or ability to bring the civil war to an end.  As the United States withdraws from Africa, the European Union is drifting and not ready to replace the void being left by the United States.

Nasrine Malik discussed the impact of the war in Iran on Africa generally.  It has the potential to destabilize African economies.  The Western conception of human rights is on the wane and being replaced by an individualistic approach to certain human rights challenges. 

Sudan's Civil War: Two Sides Trade Territory and Drone Attacks

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 14 May 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.

Following drone attacks on the Khartoum airport by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) reciprocated by launching drone strikes on the RSF airport at Nyala.  The two sides have also exchanged control over some territory with neither the RSF nor the SAF demonstrating the ability to make decisive gains.  

Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray Region Has Wide Implications

 The International Crisis Group published on 15 May 2026 an analysis titled "Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray: Averting a Return to War" by Magnus Taylor.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of Debretsion Gebremichael has seized control of the federal government supported Tigrayan administration in Mekele in a power grab.  This is a direct challenge to the federal government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.  

The situation is further complicated because the TPLF has the support of neighboring Eritrea and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) government in Khartoum.  For its part, the Abiy Ahmed government has been supportive of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, which is engaged in a civil war with the SAF.  Egypt may also join the fray on the side of the TPLF in order to complicate life for Addis Ababa as it builds dams on the Blue Nile, raising concerns in Cairo.  

Taiwan President's Secret Flight to Eswatini

 The New York Times published on 14 May 2026 an article titled "Inside the Secret Mission to Fly Taiwan's President to Africa" by Chris Buckley and Amy Chang Chien.  

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's first attempt to visit Eswatini, the only African country that recognizes Taipei, was aborted when Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar at the last-minute revoked permission to overfly their airspace.  This account details how Lai Ching-te managed subsequently to circumvent these denials by flying secretly on the royal jet that brought Eswatini's deputy prime minister to Taiwan for a visit.  

What's Preventing Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping?

 The American Security Project published on 7 May 2026 a commentary titled "What's Holding the Houthis Back in Bab al-Mandeb?" by Laura Bucci.

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have so far refrained from attacking international shipping in the Red Sea following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.  The author suggests this is due to ongoing reconstruction in Yemen following earlier attacks on the Houthis by the United States and Israel, an interrupted weapons supply chain from Iran, and concern that the U.S. and Israel would resume airstrikes.  The author does not, however, rule out a resumption of Houthi attacks.

South Africa and China Expand Cooperation in Artificial Intelligence Education

 Devdiscourse, a media platform for development stakeholders, posted on 13 May 2026 an article titled "SA and China Deepen Partnership in AI Education, Technical Skills and Student Mobility."

South Africa and China have agreed to expand significantly cooperation in digital education, artificial intelligence (AI), vocational training, and student mobility following discussions in Hangzhou.  This is part of a broader effort to align education systems with industrial transformation, technological innovation, and future workforce demands.

The Limits of Russia's Africa Corps

 The Soufan Center, a New York-based nonprofit organization, published on 12 May 2026 a commentary titled "The Limits of Russia's Africa Corps: Mali and the JNIM-FLA Offensive."

Coordinated attacks by al-Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Musliman (JNIM), and the Tuareg-dominated separatists, the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), have highlighted the limited capabilities of the Malian junta and its Russian mercenaries, the Africa Corps, to fend off the insurgency.

Russia's engagement in Mali also raises the question whether it has the resources to counter a genuine insurgency or if it is only in the country to ensure the survival of the military junta.  

Is Foreign Investment the Answer for American and Chinese Soft Power Influence in Africa?

Brookings published on 6 May 2026 a study titled "Foreign Investment Is Not Making Friends for China--or the US" by John F. McCauley, University of Maryland, Margaret M. Pearson, John L. Thornton China Center, and Xiaonan Wang, City University of New York - Baruch College. 

Drawing on over 750 Chinese and American foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in 23 African countries, the research challenges the assumption that it generates not only economic returns but also goodwill in the local community.  While proximity to a major power's investment increases its perceived influence in local communities and undermines that of its adversary, it also decreases affinity for the investing power.  

This reputational cost is not unique to China; U.S. investment triggers a strikingly similar backlash.  Unmet expectations around jobs and local economic benefits, heightened perceptions of corruption among local officials, and concerns about external influence erode the soft power dividends that both powers anticipate.  China and the United States must recognize that investing abroad can sabotage goodwill if projects are not constructed with local economic development in mind.   

 Comment: While the study offers a useful cautionary note about the impact of FDI, it is based on a narrow definition of the value of investment.  FDI can have positive effects on the economy that go well beyond the impact on the community in close proximity to the investment project.  FDI can add to a country's GDP, increase tax revenue, and have downstream economic benefits not captured in the nearby community.  While the negative results on reverse model preference identified in the study are revelatory, they are modest and probably skewed by a small number of egregiously flawed investment projects.   

China Supports Egyptian Military Modernization and Seeks Influence

 Modern Diplomacy published on 6 May 2026 a commentary titled "Egyptian Military Bases: A Strategic Linchpin for China's Interests in the Eastern Med and Red Sea" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University.

China seeks to leverage the development of Egyptian military bases as centers for Chinese military technology, especially UAVs and advanced air defense systems.  By supporting Egyptian military modernization, China also weakens Cairo's military dependence on the United States.  

Assessment of Chinese Financed and Built Light Rail Project in Addis Ababa

 The Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives journal published in March 2026 an in-depth assessment titled "The Road Divides: When Funding Shapes Form - Assessing the Connectivity Impacts of China-financed Light Rail in Addis Ababa" by Guibo Sun, The University of Manchester, and Kristen Zhao, Manchester Metropolitan University.  

Chinese loans provided $475 million for financing most of the Addis Ababa Light Rail Transit (AALRT), a system that rings the capital city.  Completed by Chinese companies almost ten years ago, the system was designed to move up to 60,000 passengers per hour.  AALRT was promoted as a showcase project for the Belt and Road Initiative.

The assessment concludes that AALRT fell far short of its promises.  Chronic service disruptions and limited maintenance funding mean only about a third of its 41 trains are operational, transporting just 55,000 passengers a day, a fraction of its projected capacity.  Instead of alleviating congestion in Addis Ababa, the system has contributed to the creation of new traffic bottlenecks, with daily life in Addis Ababa being impacted by both reduced connectivity and inadequate transfer capacity.