Critical Minerals: Africa, US, and China

 Mining Focus Africa published on 23 February 2026 an article titled "Mining Indaba 2026: Event Highlights Africa's Mining Opportunity Amid Global Competition" by David Christianson.  

The United States showed up in force at the 2026 Africa Mining Indaba in Cape Town, South Africa.  The conference followed the announcement of Project Vault, a $12 billion US initiative to build a strategic stockpile of critical minerals.  An underlying theme of the conference was US-China competition for Africa's critical minerals.  

Trump Administration Ends Humanitarian Aid to Seven African Nations

 Press TV posted on 23 February 2026 an article titled "Trump Admin Terminates 'Lifesaving' Aid Programs to Seven African Countries: Report."

The Atlantic magazine reported that the Trump administration has decided to end humanitarian aid programs in seven African countries because there is no strong connection between the humanitarian response and US national interests.  The seven countries are Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, and Zimbabwe.  

What's Behind Risk of War Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

The Conversation published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on Edge Again: What's Behind the Growing Risk of War" by Yohannes Gedamu. 

The author argues that landlocked Ethiopia's desire for maritime access, Eritrea's support for armed dissident groups in Ethiopia, and Eritrea's omission from the peace process that ended the Tigray war are the primary drivers of current tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopia and Eritrea Play Cat and Mouse Along Border

 Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Diplomacy, Eritrea's Escalation, and the Future of the Horn of Africa" by Bemnet Alemayehu.  

Ethiopia's minister of foreign affairs sent a letter on 7 February to his counterpart in Eritrea expressing serious concern over Eritrea's military penetration deeper into Ethiopia's northeastern border areas.  Ethiopia charged the troops violate the country's territorial integrity and demanded their immediate withdrawal. At the same time, Ethiopia called for diplomatic engagement to avoid reciprocal military escalation.

Ethiopia Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Ambiguous Letter Said More Than It Stated" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda. 

The author raises interesting questions about the substance and form of the letter.   

A facsimile of the 7 February letter between the two foreign ministers has been posted online.  Read it and decide for yourself what kind of message Ethiopia is sending to Eritrea and the world.  Is the letter an example of what Professor Don Levine called Ethiopia's Amharic tradition of "Wax and Gold?"  

China's Digital Program in Africa

 Foreign Policy Watchdog posted on 20 February 2026 an article titled "The Shifting Sands of Influence: China's Strategic Investment in Africa's Digital Infrastructure."

Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE currently control about 40 percent of Africa's internet bandwidth and hold over 65 percent of smartphone market share in key African countries.  It is questionable if the West can respond effectively.  China may shape the continent's digital destiny.

Ukraine Competes with Russia and China in Africa

 Euromaidan Press, an on-line independent newspaper run by Ukrainian volunteers, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Ukraine Keeps Losing African Allies--And What Russia and China Built While No One Watched" by Peeter Helme.

Africa is the location of competition between Ukraine, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other.  Ukraine is losing.  Eight African countries now vote against Ukraine in the UN General Assembly (UNGA), up from one at the outbreak of Russia's attack against Ukraine in early 2022.  Support for Ukraine collapsed from 28 African countries in 2022 to 10 during a UNGA vote in February 2025.  Most are now non-committal.    

The article attributes this loss of African support for Ukraine to a Russian disinformation campaign in Africa, an expanded scholarship program, Russian Orthodox Church outreach, and mercenary support in several countries.  Russia's efforts in Africa are assisted by its ally, China, which has a massive economic engagement with the continent.  China also has 53 embassies in Africa, Russia 40, and Ukraine only 18.  The asymmetry in all categories of engagement is vast.

The article concludes that the ground shifted not because African countries support Russia's war, but because Moscow and Beijing built systems that reward distance from Kyiv.  

The Legacy of Russia's Wagner Group in Africa

 Nigeria's The Authority published on 20 February 2026 an article titled "As Russia Takes Over the Wagner Group: Implications for Africa" by Ipole Amajama.  

The government of the Russian Federation has taken over the Wagner Group under the guidance of the Foreign Intelligence Service.   As a result, it has become part of the state-led strategy of influence and power projection.   Much of its effort in Africa is focused on a media campaign of disinformation.  

China Reengages with Libya's Government of National Unity

 Africa Press posted on 20 February 2026 an article titled "China Returns to Libya with New Economic Partnership" by Tamara Pro.

Closed since 2014 for security reasons, China reopened its embassy in Tripoli late last year and recently appointed an ambassador.  Subsequently, China signed a number of economic agreements with the Government of National Unity (GNU). China will likely begin to increase its purchase of Libyan oil and may expand the port of Tobruk in eastern Libya.

China will continue to maintain balanced relations between the GNU in western Libya and the Government of National Stability that controls eastern Libya.

Ethiopia: Tigray Is Under Siege Again

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray Is Under Siege Again" by Kiros Nigus Thegay, a human rights advocate.

Siege-like conditions prevent Tigray Region from returning to normal. The author argues that the federal government is engaged in "weaponized starvation" and "economic sabotage."  

Russia Recruits 1,000 Kenyans for War Against Ukraine

 The BBC posted on 19 February 2026 an article titled "Over 1,000 Kenyans Enlisted to Fight in Russia-Ukraine War, Report Says" by Wycliffe Muia.  

Kenya's National Intelligence Service reported that 89 Kenyans were on the frontlines of Russia's war with Ukraine in February, but 1,000 Kenyans have been recruited to fight for Russia.  Kenya asked Russia to stop the conscription of its nationals.  

Sudan: Quad Peace Plan Flounders

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 19 February 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo and Elliot Nazar.  

The Quad (United States, UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia) peace proposal is stalled due in large part to the fact that the UAE supports the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Egypt and Saudi Arabia support the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  Neither the RSF nor the SAF has fully committed to the Quad ceasefire proposal.  Ethiopia's support for a new RSF military campaign in Sudan's neighboring Blue Nile state is further complicating any peace settlement.  

Israel, Somaliland, and the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 19 February 2026 a 27-minute podcast titled "Israel, Somaliland and the Horn" with Alan Boswell and Asher Lubotzky, Israel-Africa Relations Institute.

Lubotzky commented that Israel is trying to improve relations across Africa.  In eastern Africa, its closest ties are with Ethiopia.  It also has good relations with South Sudan and Kenya.  They are up and down with Uganda and not so good with Eritrea.  Israel is making every effort to remain out of the Sudan conflict.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland was based primarily on its goal to develop a strategic link with a territory that is close to the Houthis in Yemen.  The Houthi issue drove Israel to recognize Somaliland where it can improve its intelligence operations at the southern end of the Red Sea and into Yemen.  The decision had little or nothing to do, as is often alleged, with moving Gazans to Somaliland or the Ethiopia-Egyptian dispute.  

Israel recognizes that Somaliland took a chance by recognizing Israel, which could result in Houthi attacks aimed at Somaliland.  

Can Ethiopia's Strong Growth Rate Continue?

 Foreign Policy published on 18 February 2026 an article titled "What's Behind Ethiopia's Double Digit Growth: And Can Addis Ababa's Boon Last?" by Nosmot Gdabamosi. 

Ethiopia's impressive growth rate is being driven by floating the exchange rate for its currency, the birr, and strong exports of coffee and gold.  But high debt and involvement in Sudan's civil war could reverse the current positive numbers.   

UN Report Suggests Rapid Support Forces Genocide in Sudan

 UN News published on 19 February 2026 an article titled "Sudan: 'Hallmarks of Genocide' Found in El Fasher, UN Investigators Detail Mass Killings and Ethnic Targeting" by Vibhu Mishra.

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) carried out ethnically targeted killings, widespread sexual violence, and enforced disappearance during their late-October takeover of El Fasher in Sudan's Darfur Region.  They committed three underlying acts of genocide, which is the only reasonable inference you can take from the RSF killings.  

Ghanaian Professor Calls for Reassessment of Africa's Relations with China

 The Ghana News Agency posted on 18 February 2026 an article titled "Africa-China Relations Need Critical Review--Prof. Amoah" by Edward Acquah.

Prominent associate professor of political science at the University of Ghana, Lloyd George Adu Amoah, recently gave a key public lecture on China-Africa relations.  Amoah, who has a doctorate from Wuhan University in China, called for a critical reassessment of the relationship. He described current China-Africa relations as "heavy on form and very light on substance."

Amoah identified three phases of China-Africa relations with the last one beginning about 2011 when China became the world's second largest economy.  This phase has been marked by China's "obsession with the maintenance of its new superpower status."  He warned that trade with China may lock Africa into a source for commodities and result in diminished manufacturing opportunities.  

Amoah added Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows constitute less than 5 percent of its global FDI stock and they are concentrated in resource rich countries and sectors such as mining and construction.

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray Poised to Fight

 The International Crisis Group published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa."

A new war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Region of Ethiopia is palpable.  It is gripped by rising tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa, on one side, and the Tigray Region and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, on the other.  Recent developments suggest they are getting ready for conflict.  

Somalia, Climate Change, and IDPs

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in 2025 a study titled "From Risk to Response: Addressing the Climate-Conflict-Displacement Nexus."

Somalia consistently ranks among the world's most climate-vulnerable countries.  Climate change is the primary driver of internally displaced people (IDPs) in the country.  One in every 25 displaced individuals globally resides in Somalia.  Climate-vulnerable states are also more likely to experience civil unrest and political instability.   

Russia Expands Influence in Africa Ahead of 2026 Summit

 Ukraine's Mezha published on 10 February 2026 an article titled "Russia Expands Influence in Africa Ahead of 2026 Summit." 

Russia is sending more diplomatic staff to its embassies in Africa.  In 2025, some 35,000 African students studied in Russian universities.  Russia is ramping up its soft power across the continent.  

Trump Names Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs

 South Africa's Daily Maverick published on 8 February 2026 an article titled "New Assistant Secretary of State for Africa: Manager of Trump Policies for the Continent He Hates?" by J. Brooks Spector.

Frank W. Garcia is the Trump administration nominee to be the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs.  A Congressional staffer focusing on intelligence issues, he has limited exposure to Africa.  He is now a senior adviser to the House of Representatives Select Committee on Intelligence.  He replaces Nick Checker, a former CIA analyst who had the title of senior bureau officer for African affairs but not assistant secretary.  

Russia Shifts Diplomats from Europe to Africa

 Africa Business Insider published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Following Massive Diplomatic Expulsions from Europe, Russia Redirects Its Envoys to Africa" by Chinedu Okafor.

Russia's TASS news service estimates that more than 500 Russian diplomats have been asked to leave European countries since the beginning of the war with Ukraine.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia has shifted 120 to 150 diplomats from Europe and reassigned most of them to embassies in Africa, especially in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali.  

Nigeria Warns Nationals Not to Join Foreign Wars

 Africa News published on 17 February 2026 an article titled "Nigeria Issues Warning over Illegal Recruitment of Its Citizens for Russia's War in Ukraine."

The Nigerian foreign ministry issued a statement on 15 February expressing "grave concern over the rising and alarming cases of Nigerian citizens being illegally recruited to participate in foreign armed conflict."  The statement did not mention Russia or any state, but at least 36 Nigerians reportedly have been recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine, and it is widely believed that is the reason for the warning.

Egypt-China Cooperation to Curb Israel's Mossad in Africa

 Modern Diplomacy published on 14 February 2026 a commentary titled "Egypt's Shadow War: Partnering with China to Curb Mossad's Influence Across Africa" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University Egypt.

The author states that Egypt and China are working together to counter Israeli intelligence activities, specifically those of Mossad, in Africa. Egypt is particularly concerned with Mossad activities in Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, and Eritrea.  China has reportedly provided Egypt with advanced radar and electronic warfare systems.  

Argument for Eritrea's Role in Tigray Genocide

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 February 2026 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Role in the Tigray Genocide" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University and manager of the Tigray Genocide website.  

The author argues that Eritrean troops joined those from the Ethiopian federal government to engage in a genocide against Tigrayans during the war in Tigray.  

African Union Rejects Sudan's Separatist Government

 The African Union Peace and Security Council adopted on 12 February 2026 a Communique on the Situation in Sudan.

The Communique called on member states to respect the territorial integrity and unity of Sudan and the total rejection of a parallel government led by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  It welcomed the return to Khartoum of the Transitional Government of Sudan.  It condemned unnamed external actors for fueling the conflict in Sudan.  

Ethiopia's Conflict in Amhara Region

 World Politics Review published on 16 February 2026 an article titled "In Ethiopia, a Slow-Burning Insurgency Takes a Dire Humanitarian Toll" by Jane Cybulski, a pseudonym for a journalist who specializes in the Horn of Africa.

The article discusses the humanitarian crisis caused by the ongoing conflict in Amhara Region between the Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force.