Bisrat Kebede of Tigray News interviewed me on 9 March 2026; the title of the 50-minute video is "Iran Conflict: Sparking a Global Conflict."
The first forty minutes dealt with the on-going war in Iran while the final ten minutes focused on the situation in the Horn of Africa. I began my remarks on Iran with the caveat that this is not my area of specialization although I try to follow developments in the Middle East as well as the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.
The Associated Press published on 10 March 2026 an article titled "UN Peacekeepers Defy South Sudan Military's Order to Leave Opposition-held Town" by Florence Miettaux and Deng Machol.
The UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan refused to comply with an order from the South Sudan government to shut down its base in Akobo, an opposition stronghold near the Ethiopian border where thousands of refugees have fled. South Sudan government forces intend to attack the town.
World Politics Review published on 10 March 2026 an analysis titled "War and Disorder Are Mobilizing the Middle East's Middle Powers" by Dalia Ghanem and Ahmed Morsy, both with the Middle East Council on Global Affairs in Doha.
A new loosely aligned "statist Quad" of traditional middle powers--Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey--is trying to reassert itself and actively coordinate on the region's most volatile crises. The four countries are fundamentally statist powers that view governing systems in which centralized authority, often with the military as its backbone, as the sole guarantor of social order.
Acting sometimes in concert, sometimes on their own, they are seeking to intervene in a regional order whose current chaos poses an existential threat to their national interests. They have focused so far on the crises in Iran, Yemen, Sudan, Somaliland, Libya, and the Sahel region of Africa.
Ethiopia Insight published on 9 March 2026 a commentary titled "When Genocide Becomes a Shield Against Accountability" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare, a lawyer focused on human rights.
This is a counterpoint to the commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit and Ella Atsbeha reposted below on 16 February. The author concludes that genocide intensifies the obligation to examine how power was exercised across time. Leadership that fails at every stage of a crisis loses its mandate.
Aljazeera published on 7 March 2026 an article titled "Why Yemen's Houthis Are Staying Out of Israel-US Fight with Iran--for Now."
Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have limited their support for Tehran to rhetoric and a mass protest denouncing the US-Israeli strikes. The Houthis seem to fear Israel intelligence and the possibility of leadership decapitation. At the same time, the Houthi leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, said his group's engagement in the war could occur at any moment depending on developments.
The Hause of Saud, a Saudi Royal Family news and information platform, posted on 6 March 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthi Trigger--Why Yemen's Decision Could Be More Dangerous Than the Iran War Itself" by Abdul Mohammed.
In an excellent and timely analysis, the author explains that the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen are debating whether to join the Iran war. If they resume attacks on Red Sea international shipping alongside the Hormuz closure, 28 percent of global oil trade faces simultaneous disruption.
The Houthis are engaged in the single most important strategic decision facing any non-state actor in the current conflict. Their choice to enter or abstain from the Iran war will determine whether the world faces an unprecedented dual-chokepoint crisis, whether Saudi Arabia's $500 billion NEOM megaproject becomes a frontline target, and whether the global economy tips from disruption into recession.
The Houthis must decide whether to join Iran in opposing Operation Epic Fury or abandon Iran. There are apparently sharp disagreements among Houthi factions over how to respond.
Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.
The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.
This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.
The Conversation published on 4 March 2026 an analysis titled "Far from Random, China's Global Port Network Is Clustering Near the World's Riskiest Trade Routes" by Dylan Spencer, Georgia Southern University, Gohar Petrossian, John Jay School of Criminal Justice, and Stephen Pires, Florida International University.
Chinese companies now own or operate terminals at more than 90 ports worldwide. This program is not random; the investments cluster near maritime chokepoints and piracy-prone shipping corridors such as the Suez Canal/Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, and Strait of Malacca. Proximity to critical trade bottlenecks strongly predicts Chinese port investment.
Aljazeera published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "'Our Children Were Sold Off': The South Africans Sent to Fight Russia's War" by Chris Makhaye.
Russia recruited South Africans to become VIP bodyguards who were then given brief military training and conscripted by a paramilitary group to fight in Ukraine. Most of the South Africans became cannon fodder on the Russian front lines. An appeal by South Africa's president to Vladimir Putin managed to get their return to their families.
Billionaires Africa posted on 4 March 2026 an article titled "Oskar Lewnowski: The Man Betting $9 Billion on Congo's Cobalt to Break China's Grip on America's Mineral Future" by Mfonobong Nsehe.
Orion Critical Minerals Consortium (CMC), founded by American financier Oskar Lewnowski, and Glencore announced in February 2026 that they had entered a non-binding memorandum of understanding for Orion CMC to acquire a 40 percent stake in Glencore's DRC assets, Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company, at a combined enterprise value of about $9 billion.
Lewnowski is pursuing a financial deal that is a direct counter to Beijing's decade-long strategy of locking up critical mineral supply chains before Western governments understood what was at stake. This potential investment would help ensure a reliable source of critical minerals for the United States and its partners. The deal remains subject to due diligence and regulatory approvals.
The International Crisis Group posted on 4 March 2026 a commentary titled "As Tensions Mount, Sudan Accuses Ethiopia of New Hostilities" by Alan Boswell.
Sudan has charged that Ethiopia is permitting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to launch drones that strike locations inside Sudan and warned Addis Ababa of unspecified consequences. Tension in the Horn of Africa was already high; this just raises the temperature.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Elliot Nazar.
Sudan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation claimed that Ethiopia is allowing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to launch attack drones from Asosa airport in western Ethiopia against Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)-controlled territory in Sudan. Ethiopia has denied the charge.
If true, this situation could quickly get out of control and result in SAF retaliatory attacks against Ethiopia and encourage closer SAF relations with the Tigray People's Liberation Front.
The South China Morning Post published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Africa Emerges as New Arena in US-China Competition over Artificial Intelligence" by Lucy Quaggin.
Africa is increasingly seen as a critical region for artificial intelligence development because of its population and economic growth. By 2050, one quarter of the world's population will be in Africa. American and Chinese companies are competing for the African market and support to set standards.
The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 6 March 2026 a press release titled "Somaliland Journalist Ahmed-Zaki Ibrahim Mohamud Held Without Charge Since February."
The founder of Warrame Media has been held without charges since 22 February by Somaliland authorities, who have cracked down on press freedom over the past year.
The Associated Press published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Families of Kenya Recruits Duped into Fighting in Russia's War on Ukraine Demand Their Sons Return" by Evelyne Musambi and Vivianne Wandera.
Russia has recruited mare than 1,000 Kenyans to fight in its war against Ukraine, many of them lured under false pretenses. Their family members and the government of Kenya want the Kenyans returned and the practice to stop.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 4 March 2026 an analysis titled "Iran War's Impact on the Red Sea and Horn of Africa" by Liam Karr.
The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen could resume missile strikes on Israel or initiate strikes on the UAE but have not yet done so. The US military base in Djibouti is another possible target. For its part, Iran may engage in terrorist attacks on US interests in Africa.
Afro Barometer posted on 27 February 2026 a survey titled "Popular Perceptions of Russia Lag Even as Its Influence grows Across Africa" by Aubrey Ghambi, Alfred Kwadzo, and Carolyn Logan.
While most of the analysis is about the position of Russia in Africa, this survey of 38 African countries found that China received the best marks on positive influence (62 percent). The United States has fallen behind at 52 percent positive rating, the European Union at 50 percent, India 39 percent, and Russia 36 percent. The negative perceptions were more similar with China (17 percent), US (20 percent), EU (17 percent), India (20 percent), and Russia (23 percent).
Skillings Mining Review published on 3 March 2026 an article titled "The Indaba 2026 Legacy: Inside the New African Critical Minerals Framework" by Charles Pitts.
The most recent Cape Town conference on mining (Indaba 2026) demonstrated that three major African sources of critical minerals (DRC, Zambia, and South Africa) acted in a coordinated way to ensure that its raw mineral wealth is not just exported but more of it is refined in Africa for value added benefits. For example, the DRC produces about 70 percent of the world's cobalt but now refines less than 10 percent of it. The DRC intends to change that ratio.
The West's Lobito Corridor project for Angola, Zambia, and the DRC fits this new African narrative reasonably well, China's focus on importing raw material not so much.
Ethiopia Insight published on 3 March 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray and Eritrea Must Cooperate to Survive" by Negasi Awetehey, University of Aksum.
The author argues that successive governments in Addis Ababa view relations between Eritrea and Tigray with suspicion and find it in their interest to keep old wounds active. He calls for dialogue between Tigrayans and Eritreans, adding that Tigray and Eritrea must challenge war narratives by amplifying the public's desire for peace, rehabilitation, and economic cooperation.
Devex Newswire posted on 4 March 2026 an article titled "US Aid Cuts Gut South Africa's HIV Fight" by Helen Murphy.
South Africa bears the world's largest HIV/AIDS burden. US foreign aid cuts and the dismantlement of USAID have ripped through its response to the disease, forcing clinics to close and leaving thousands of vulnerable patients scrambling for care. A State Department spokesperson responded that it is time for governments to take responsibility for the lives of people in their countries.
The Guardian published on 3 March 2026 an article titled "South Sudan Risks Return to Full-blown Civil War as Violence Escalates" by Carlos Mureithi.
Militia forces allied with suspended Vice President Riek Machar have increased their attacks on forces loyal to President Salva Kiir, threatening a return to full-blown civil war.
Ghana Web posted on 1 March 2026 an article titled "Two Ugandans Reported Killed in Ukraine-Russia War."
The article indicates that Russia has recruited Africans to fight in Ukraine from Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Egypt, Cameroon, Ghana, and South Africa.
Comment: This is not a complete list of African countries where Russia has recruited mercenaries.
Ethiopia Insight published on 2 March 2026 a commentary titled "The Welkait Quagmire Neither Bullets nor Ballets Can Resolve" by Zola Moges, PhD in international law.
Welkait is a district that has been part of Western Tigray since the Tigray People's Liberation Front annexed it following the demise in 1991 of the Derg regime. Prior to that, Welkait was part of Amhara Region.
Welkait's strategic location at the intersection of Ethiopia's borders with Sudan and Eritrea complicates the ability to find a solution that manages to overcome long-standing ethnic, language, and cultural differences.
The author suggests as a solution creation of a self-administered territory that might take the form of a special autonomous zone or even an additional regional state with bilingual Amharic and Tigrinya administration.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published in February 2026 a major study titled "Artificial Intelligence for Africa's Defense Forces: A Toolkit for Defense Sector AI Strategy and Adoption."
This toolkit is a resource for African defense professionals to develop and adopt artificial intelligence policies, strategies, guidance, systems, and tools. It defines and illustrates some of the most relevant use cases, discusses how to guide the development of AI systems, processes, and personnel, suggests how to adapt AI to Africa's security environment, and outlines good practices that can be used to inform the development of defense sector AI strategy.
AI is no longer a futuristic prospect for Africa's defense forces, but an increasingly embedded tactical reality shaping military operations from the Sahel to the Cape. Like past inventions such as steam power, electricity, and the internet, AI is fast becoming an essential technology that will underpin the future of warfare.
Semafor published on 2 March 2026 an article titled "China's Media Push in Africa Has Largely Failed, Analysts Say" by Jeronimo Gonzalez.
Although Africans perceived China's influence positively in a recent Afro Barometer poll, a Nigerian analyst believes Beijing's multi-billion media campaign to attract an audience has largely failed. African audiences still prefer news from the West.
Comment: The fact remains that the Afro Barometer poll of 29 countries indicates Africans have a more positive perception of China's influence in Africa than of US or EU influence. The negative perception of all three is about the same.
