African Perceptions of China, US and Russia

 Afro Barometer posted on 27 February 2026 a survey titled "Popular Perceptions of Russia Lag Even as Its Influence grows Across Africa" by Aubrey Ghambi, Alfred Kwadzo, and Carolyn Logan.  

While most of the analysis is about the position of Russia in Africa, this survey of 38 African countries found that China received the best marks on positive influence (62 percent).  The United States has fallen behind at 52 percent positive rating, the European Union at 50 percent, India 39 percent, and Russia 36 percent.  The negative perceptions were more similar with China (17 percent), US (20 percent), EU (17 percent), India (20 percent), and Russia (23 percent).  

Africa's New Approach to Critical Minerals: Implications for China and the West

 Skillings Mining Review published on 3 March 2026 an article titled "The Indaba 2026 Legacy: Inside the New African Critical Minerals Framework" by Charles Pitts.

The most recent Cape Town conference on mining (Indaba 2026) demonstrated that three major African sources of critical minerals (DRC, Zambia, and South Africa) acted in a coordinated way to ensure that its raw mineral wealth is not just exported but more of it is refined in Africa for value added benefits.  For example, the DRC produces about 70 percent of the world's cobalt but now refines less than 10 percent of it.  The DRC intends to change that ratio.

The West's Lobito Corridor project for Angola, Zambia, and the DRC fits this new African narrative reasonably well, China's focus on importing raw material not so much.  

Eritrea and Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 3 March 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray and Eritrea Must Cooperate to Survive" by Negasi Awetehey, University of Aksum.  

The author argues that successive governments in Addis Ababa view relations between Eritrea and Tigray with suspicion and find it in their interest to keep old wounds active.  He calls for dialogue between Tigrayans and Eritreans, adding that Tigray and Eritrea must challenge war narratives by amplifying the public's desire for peace, rehabilitation, and economic cooperation.   

US Aid Cuts Undermine South Africa's Response to HIV/AIDS

 Devex Newswire posted on 4 March 2026 an article titled "US Aid Cuts Gut South Africa's HIV Fight" by Helen Murphy.

South Africa bears the world's largest HIV/AIDS burden.  US foreign aid cuts and the dismantlement of USAID have ripped through its response to the disease, forcing clinics to close and leaving thousands of vulnerable patients scrambling for care.  A State Department spokesperson responded that it is time for governments to take responsibility for the lives of people in their countries.  

South Sudan Edges Closer to Civil War

 The Guardian published on 3 March 2026 an article titled "South Sudan Risks Return to Full-blown Civil War as Violence Escalates" by Carlos Mureithi.  

Militia forces allied with suspended Vice President Riek Machar have increased their attacks on forces loyal to President Salva Kiir, threatening a return to full-blown civil war.

Russia Recruits Mercenaries Across Africa for Ukraine War

 Ghana Web posted on 1 March 2026 an article titled "Two Ugandans Reported Killed in Ukraine-Russia War."

The article indicates that Russia has recruited Africans to fight in Ukraine from Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Egypt, Cameroon, Ghana, and South Africa.

Comment:  This is not a complete list of African countries where Russia has recruited mercenaries.  

Ethiopia's Welkait: Amharan, Tigrayan, or Something Else?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 2 March 2026 a commentary titled "The Welkait Quagmire Neither Bullets nor Ballets Can Resolve" by Zola Moges, PhD in international law.

Welkait is a district that has been part of Western Tigray since the Tigray People's Liberation Front annexed it following the demise in 1991 of the Derg regime.  Prior to that, Welkait was part of Amhara Region.  

Welkait's strategic location at the intersection of Ethiopia's borders with Sudan and Eritrea complicates the ability to find a solution that manages to overcome long-standing ethnic, language, and cultural differences.  

The author suggests as a solution creation of a self-administered territory that might take the form of a special autonomous zone or even an additional regional state with bilingual Amharic and Tigrinya administration.  

Artificial Intelligence for Africa's Defense Forces

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published in February 2026 a major study titled "Artificial Intelligence for Africa's Defense Forces: A Toolkit for Defense Sector AI Strategy and Adoption."

This toolkit is a resource for African defense professionals to develop and adopt artificial intelligence policies, strategies, guidance, systems, and tools.  It defines and illustrates some of the most relevant use cases, discusses how to guide the development of AI systems, processes, and personnel, suggests how to adapt AI to Africa's security environment, and outlines good practices that can be used to inform the development of defense sector AI strategy.

AI is no longer a futuristic prospect for Africa's defense forces, but an increasingly embedded tactical reality shaping military operations from the Sahel to the Cape.  Like past inventions such as steam power, electricity, and the internet, AI is fast becoming an essential technology that will underpin the future of warfare.  

Is China's Media Campaign in Africa Working?

 Semafor published on 2 March 2026 an article titled "China's Media Push in Africa Has Largely Failed, Analysts Say" by Jeronimo Gonzalez.   

Although Africans perceived China's influence positively in a recent Afro Barometer poll, a Nigerian analyst believes Beijing's multi-billion media campaign to attract an audience has largely failed.  African audiences still prefer news from the West.

Comment:  The fact remains that the Afro Barometer poll of 29 countries indicates Africans have a more positive perception of China's influence in Africa than of US or EU influence.  The negative perception of all three is about the same.  

Somalia and Turkey Move Forward with New Port of Hobyo

 The Africa Report published on 26 February 2026 an article titled "Somalia: Hobyo Port Advances Amid Security Risks and Ethiopia Trade Scramble" by Mohamad Sheikh Nor.  

Hobyo Investment Company has a 70 percent stake and a Turkish-owned construction company a 30 percent share in a new port at Hobyo, which is intended to support central Somalia and possible trade to and from Ethiopia.  The new port faces challenges because it will strengthen certain local and foreign actors while sidelining those with interests in competing ports.

Ghana Tries to Shut Down Russia's Recruitment of Mercenaries

 The Associated Press published on 27 February 2026 an article titled "At Least 55 Ghanaians Killed Fighting for Russia in Ukraine War, Minister Says." 

Ghana's foreign minister commented on 27 February that at least 44 Ghanaians have died fighting for Russia in Ukraine.  He added that Russia has lured 272 Ghanaians into the battle since 2022.  The foreign minister said Ghana would dismantle all the dark web illegal recruitment schemes.  

Russia Lags Behind in Africa

 Modern Diplomacy published on 27 February 2026 a commentary titled "Africa's Rise: The 21st Century Story that Leaves Russia Behind" by Kester Kenn Klomegah, an independent researcher.  

Russia has focused on a limited part of Africa.  About 80 percent of its trade is with North African countries and South Africa.  It has sent the Africa Corps to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.  But it has largely ignored the rest of the continent.

China Replaces South Africa as Primary Chrome Processor

 Discovery Alert posted on 1 March 2026 an analysis titled "China Becomes World's Leading Chrome Processor Overtaking South Africa" by Muflih Hidayat.  

Ferrochrome production, which is essential for stainless steel, requires consistent, energy-intensive processing.  Although South Africa is the source of much of the world's chrome ore, China's coal-based power generation is more reliable and cheaper than South Africa's electricity.  Consequently, processing of the ore has shifted from South Africa to China.

Choosing Peace in the Horn of Africa

 An Africanist Perspective posted on 27 February 2026 a commentary titled "Conflict in the Horn of Africa Isn't Inevitable.  People Can Choose Peace" by Ken Opalo.  

The fundamental drivers of conflict in the Horn of Africa are domestic.  Once rebellions start, they tend to acquire lives of their own.  A neighborhood of weak states with porous borders contributes to the problem, making it easy for regional rivals and foreign governments to interfere.  

Too many people in the Horn are convinced that organized violence is a legitimate response to losing in the political arena.  That has to change before there will be peace.  

Artificial Intelligence in Africa and Cooperation with China and US

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 24 February 2026 an article titled "The State of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Africa" by Amit Jain.

This is a nice summary of the current state of artificial intelligence in Africa, the sectors that are most likely to benefit in the coming years, and the countries that are best positioned to take advantage of it. 

The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs published on 7 February 2026 an article titled "The United States, China, and AI Competition in Africa: Lessons for the Global South" by Alice Chen and Neel U. Sukhalme.  

This article (also posted below on 11 February) is a useful addition to this topic, which is fast becoming important to Africa's development.  

US Call about Sudan Ignites Feud between Saudi Arabia and UAE

 The New York Times published on 27 February 2026 an article titled "How a Call from Trump Ignited a Bitter Feud Between Two U.S. Allies" by Vivian Nereim. 

Saudi Arabia reportedly asked the United States to impose sanctions on the UAE for its support of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.  A Saudi official said the request was to put additional sanctions on the RSF to prevent them from getting external support, not to impose sanctions directly on the UAE.

While the details of the phone call are in dispute, the episode resulted in a public feud between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  Relations rapidly deteriorated in December when Saudi Arabia bombed an Emirati shipment to Yemen.  Now, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are supporting opposing sides of conflicting groups in Yemen and Sudan.  

Chinese-built Niger-Benin Oil Pipeline Under Attack

 The South China Morning Post published on 27 February 2026 an article titled "Why Beijing's US$4.5 Billion Niger-Benin Oil Pipeline Is Being Attacked by Rebels" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

A rebel group has been attacking the oil pipeline from Niger's oilfields to an Atlantic port in Benin in an effort to restore a former elected president to power in Niger.  China financed, built, and continues to have a management role in the pipeline, which provides a significant amount of revenue for Niger's military junta.  Although the attacks are not aimed at China, the situation poses a dilemma for Beijing and its non-interference policy. 

Chad Closes Border with Sudan, Interrupting RSF Supply Lines

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 26 February 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo and Elliot Nazar.

Chad closed its border with Sudan following two attacks by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Chadian troops inside Chad.  The RSF relies on supply lines through Chad for its weapons and equipment.  

Indian Ocean: Economic and Strategic Corridors

 The Emirates Policy Center posted on 27 February 2026 an analysis titled "The Economics of Deterrence: How Corridors and Alliances Are Reshaping Geopolitics" by Ebtesam AlKetbi.  

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are frameworks for redistributing centers of gravity and influence, diversifying states' strategic options, and embedding long-term investment commitments.

The world is shifting from rigid alignments to flexible alliances that integrate economy and technology with digital and maritime security.  Power is no longer defined solely by territorial control but by the management of flows--trade, energy, data, and capital.  A state that positions itself as a central node within these networks gains strategic weight.

In the Indian Ocean region, both the Indian-led IMEC and the better known and more expansive Chinese BRI are efforts to achieve these objectives.

Russia in Africa: Influence and Its Limits

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 26 February 2026 a study titled "Russia in Africa: Examining Moscow's Influence and Its Limits" edited by Nate Reynolds, Frances Z. Brown, Frederic Wehrey, and Andrew S. Weiss.

The study explores Russia's role, its appeal, and its limitations across Africa since the 2010s, drawing on contributions from a range of scholars.  It also looks at the agency and interests of African governments and citizens.

Opportunism continues to define Russia's approach to Africa, as Moscow hones a set of tools designed to take advantage of instability and state fragility.  African actors can--and do--instrumentalize Russian engagement on the continent and advance their own agency in the relationship.  Geopolitical competition in Africa is widening and intensifying as middle powers emerge as important external partners, in addition to traditional powers.  The West must evolve its approach accordingly.

These essays point to a complicated and mixed record for Russia in Africa that defies simple characterizations.  Russia's influence in Africa has undoubtedly grown, but there are outstanding questions about whether it can translate its gains into stable, lasting relationships; whether its tools and symbolic gestures will gain further traction; and whether it can outcompete a crowded field of external powers that can deliver more than Russia, should they choose to.

China Remains Engaged in South Sudan in the Face of Adversity

 Channel News Asia published on 24 February 2026 an article titled "China Expands Economic Footprint in Turbulent South Sudan" by Patrick Oyet.

The article highlights China's continuing engagement in various sectors in South Sudan even as the country edges toward another civil war.

Comment:  The article did not mention that the China National Petroleum Corporation informed Sudan and South Sudan in December 2025 that it is dissolving its long-standing partnership with Sudan's oil sector.  See the Sudan Tribune's article dated 10 December 2025 titled "China's Exit from Sudan Oil Fields Deepens Crisis for War-ravaged Economy."

Chinese Mining-Energy Investments in Zimbabwe

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in January 2026 a paper titled "Examining Integrated Chinese Mining-Energy Investments in Zimbabwe" by Yaseen Tayob and Adrian Joseph.

The paper assesses Chinese investments in Zimbabwe's mining and energy sectors and shows that they provide identifiable economic value to the Zimbabwean economy, particularly in the country's lithium mining sector.

Russia to Send More Troops to Sahel Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 26 February 2026 an article titled "Sahel" by Liam Karr and Zoe Sommer.

Russia plans to send 1,000 more Africa Corps soldiers to Mali in the coming months, increasing Russian forces there to 3,500.  The Africa Corps may also send more troops to Niger.  Current Russian forces in the Sahel have failed to degrade the growing jihadi insurgencies in the region.

Somaliland/Israel/Taiwan vs China

 The University of Nottingham Taiwan Research Hub's Taiwan Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Taiwan's Diplomatic Bridge: Taiwan-Somaliland-Israel vs China in the Horn of Africa" by Faisal Abdirashid Adam. 

Taiwan, which established a liaison office in Somaliland in 2020, has embraced Israel's diplomatic recognition of Somaliland, framing it as a major step forward for the emerging "democratic triangle" of Taiwan, Israel, and Somaliland, which now positions itself as a powerful new alliance for trilateral cooperation in technology, agriculture, and Red Sea security.  

Guinea: China and the US Compete

 The Atlantic Council published on 24 February 2026 a commentary titled "In Guinea, the US Has a Rare Opportunity to Gain an Edge Over China" by Rose Keravouri and Maureen Farrell.

Recognizing the risks of overreliance on a single external partner and frustrated with Chinese firms' opacity and non-compliance with local requirements, its leadership has signaled a willingness to push back against China's mining domination.

The Trump administration invited President Mamady Doumbouya to Washington in early February and is encouraging the American private sector to invest in mining opportunities in Guinea.  The US is also exploring security cooperation with Guinea, which now offers a good opportunity for increased engagement with the United States.