Will China Pursue a Military Base on Africa's Atlantic Coast?

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 10 March 2026 an article titled "Will China Pursue a Military Base in Africa's Atlantic Ocean?" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.  

The author argues that contrary to conventional wisdom in US military circles, China is not particularly interested in having a military base on Africa's Atlantic coast.  It would represent a massive logistical overextension at a time when China needs to concentrate naval power close to home.  Such a base would be highly exposed and vulnerable to attack, making it a strategic liability rather than an asset.  In any event, by investing extensively in West African commercial ports, China has access, at least in peace time, for PLA Navy port calls.  

Comment:  While the author makes some good points, it was generally thought that China, which professed publicly that it did not believe in military bases outside China, would not establish a military base in Djibouti--until it did.  

Interview with Tigray Press: Part 2

 This is part 2 of the Tigray Press interview with me on 9 March 2026 hosted by Bisrat Kebede.  Part 1 is posted below on 10 March.  

This 44-minute segment focuses on the current situation in the Horn of Africa and the engagement in Africa of the United States, China, and Russia.   

US, China, and Russia Are Largest Major Arms Suppliers for Africa

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in March 2026 its "Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2025" by Mathew George, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman.  

During the period 2021-2025, the largest supplier of major weapons to all of Africa was the United States (19 percent), followed by China (17 percent), and Russia (15 percent).  Nearly all of the American weapons went to Morocco and Egypt.  These percentages do not include small arms and light weapons, which would drive up percentages for China and Russia.

The largest supplier of major weapons to sub-Saharan Africa during this period was China (22 percent), Russia (12 percent), and Turkiye (11 percent).  The three countries receiving the most major weapons were Nigeria (16 percent), Senegal (9 percent), and Mali (8 percent). 

The Voice of America Lives On, Sort Of

 The Washington Post published on 13 March 2026 an article titled "Trump Picks Head for VOA Parent Amid Lake Legal Battle" by Scott Nover and Adam Taylor.

The Trump administration nominated defeated Arizona candidate for governor and US senator, Kari Lake, to oversee the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which runs the Voice of America (VOA) and several other organizations such as Radio Free Asia.  The idea was to put Lake in charge to shut down these semi-independent government media outlets.  

US District Judge Royce Lamberth recently ruled that Lake has been illegally running USAGM and nullified months of Lake's actions, including a mass layoff of hundreds of employees. The Trump administration has now responded by naming Sarah B. Rogers, undersecretary of state for public diplomacy, as the new chief executive of USAGM.  She will apparently keep her current position in the State Department while assuming her new role as CEO of USAGM.  

The White House only provided enough funding to shut down USAGM, but the US Congress rejected that approach and appropriated $653 million for the agency's operations this year. 

Comment:  This development keeps the VOA and its sister organizations alive but now under the direct supervision of the State Department.  USAGM and its media organizations will apparently lose much of their previous independence.  It is also not clear how many of the USAGM work force have remained during this demoralizing and unsettled past year.  

China Dominates Investment Proposals in Angola

 Business Insider Africa published on 10 March 2026 an article titled "Africa's Second-largest Oil Producer Says China Dominated $21.88 Investment Proposals Over Five Years" by Solomon Ekanem.

Angola has received 596 investment proposals worth an estimated $21.8 billion over the past five years. with Chinese investors accounting for 80 percent of the total.  

Chinese and Turkish Fishing Vessels Plunder Catch off Guinea-Bissau

 The Guardian published on 9 March 2026 an investigative report titled "How the 'Galapagos of West Africa' Is Plundered by Floating Fish Factories" by Davide Mancini.

Floating Chinese-owned factory ships longer than a football field illegally process sardinella for fishmeal in the waters off Guinea-Bissau.  The Chinese fishmeal factories are supported by Turkish purse seiners that illegally supply them with fish.  

The offshore fish processing operation has both negative food security implications for the people of Guinea-Bissau and for artisanal fisherman in the country.  Fish are the source of a third of animal protein consumed and the informal fishing industry employs 225,000 people from a population of 2.2 million.  

Zimbabwe's Lithium Runs Through China

 Semafor published on 13 March 2026 an article titled "Zimbabwe's Lithium Upgrade Still Runs Through China" by Ray Mwayera.

Zimbabwe produced almost 10 percent of global mined lithium last year and provided about 15 percent of processed lithium in China.  Harare banned exports of raw lithium ore in 2022 and plans to prohibit exports of lithium concentrates by 2027, forcing companies to invest in local processing.  The companies building the lithium infrastructure in Zimbabwe are overwhelmingly Chinese.  This raises the question whether Zimbabwe is building an independent refining sector or simply deepening its role inside China's battery ecosystem.  

Why the Iran-backed Houthis Have Stayed Out of the Conflict

 Foreign Policy published on 11 March 2026 an analysis titled "Why Haven't the Houthis Fired?" by Fatima Abo Alasrar.

In 2025, Israeli airstrikes killed Iranian-backed Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed el-Rahawi and other key officials.  US airstrikes significantly degraded their military capacity.  

Iran is now bombing Arab cities, resulting is less enthusiasm by the Houthis to support Tehran.  The Houthis also fear that Iranian attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia will drive them closer together, possibly recreating the original alliance against the Houthis.  While this changing political situation in the region does not guarantee the Houthis will stay out of the conflict, it has given the leadership reason to tread carefully.

African Leaders Are Speaking Out Against Russia

 The National Interest published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why African Leaders Are Beginning to Speak Out Against Russia" by Thomas Kent.

African leaders are increasingly speaking up about a pattern in which paid recruiters in Russia and Africa coax young men to come to Russia with promises of civilian jobs or training.  Once they arrive, they are urged or forced to join the Russian Arny and are then sent to the frontlines in Ukraine.

Ethiopian Support for Sudan's Rapid Support Forces May Jeopardize Ties with US

 The National Interest published on 11 March 2026 a commentary titled "How Ethiopia's Involvement in the Sudanese Civil War Threatens US Interests" by Liam Karr.

Ethiopian support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in neighboring Sudan threatens US private and public investment in Ethiopia.  Ethiopian Airlines support for the RSF could additionally cause reputational and legal liability for US interests.

Update on Rising Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 African Business published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Rising Again" by Harry Clynch.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have amassed troops on their shared border, leading some analysts to fear that war could be on its way.  Other analysts are less convinced that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely.  

A Different Point of View on Ethiopia's Welkait Region

 The Habesha published on 10 March 2026 a commentary titled "Legitimacy and the Limits of Political Experimentation in Welkait" by Sisay Mulu.  

The author disagrees at both the analytical and policy level with the conclusions of Zola Moges's "The Welkait Quagmire Neither Ballots nor Bullets Can Resolve" reposted below on 2 March.  

Sisay Mulu argues that Zola Moges downplayed the importance of historical administrative continuity, discussed legal and constitutional issues in abstract terms, and failed to fairly consider the practical challenges of governing a contested post-conflict area.  

China Takes Advantage of Declining US Ties with Africa

 South Africa's The Mail & Guardian published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "China Announces Major Push to Strengthen Its Partnership with Africa Amid US Trade Tension" by Brian Sokutu.

Amid strained ties between Africa and the Trump administration, China has announced a new economic package that includes full zero-tariff access for 100 percent of African imports, effective from 1 May.  It has also declared 2026 as "China-Africa Year of People-to-People Exchanges" with some 600 events planned.

Comment:  China is cleverly taking advantage of the downturn in US-Africa relations and especially the decision by the Trump administration to increase tariffs on goods imported from most African countries.  Beijing announced the zero-tariff policy at the beginning of 2026 and the people-to-people exchanges early last year.  These are not particularly new initiatives.  

It should also be noted that China has had a trade surplus with Africa for the past 15 years and the size of that surplus has been growing steadily.  A number of African countries have expressed concern over the size of their trade deficit with China.  China's tariffs have not been the primary obstacle to importing more from Africa.  Africa has to have what China wants and historically, with the exception of raw materials such as critical minerals, that has limited its exports to China.  

Nevertheless, China is able to make an invidious comparison with the current state of US-Africa relations, and at minimal cost.   

Chinese Company Expands Satellite Cooperation with Morocco and Algeria

 Europe Says posted on 10 March 2026 an article titled "China's Geely Expands Satellite Partnerships with Morocco, Algeria."

China's Geely Auto and its aerospace division, Time Space Daoyu Technology Company, signed separate partnership agreements with Morocco and Algeria to strengthen satellite-related technology and infrastructure.

In Algeria, the cooperation focuses on building domestic aerospace manufacturing capacity.  In Morocco, the emphasis is on satellite connectivity services rather than manufacturing.

Chinese Cobalt Mine in DRC Causes Health Problems

 The Environmental Investigation Agency and PremiCongo published in March 2026 a report titled "Toxic Transition: How the World's Largest Cobalt Producer Has Allegedly Poisoned Communities for Years."

A Chinese company, CMOC Group Ltd., controls two of the world's largest copper-cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo.  Thousands of people live within a few kilometers of the operations and its massive processing plant.  Local communities and civil society groups have sounded the alarm about severe health issues.  Since 2023, doctors and nurses near the mines have treated a growing list of patients.

Cash and Markets in Sudan's Conflict

 The Rift Vally Institute published in October 2025 a study titled "Political Economy of Cash and Markets in Sudan" by Omer Egemi and Calum McLean.  

Sudan is the world's largest displacement and humanitarian crisis.  The study covers Khartoum, the political and economic hub of the country, and the two regions of Kordofan and Darfur in western Sudan during the period from February to April 2025.

Sudan's economy is largely controlled by warring parties, especially the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  The study analyses the political economy dynamics shaping Sudan's crisis with particular focus on aspects affecting cash and markets.

Tigray News Interview on Iran War and Horn of Africa

 Bisrat Kebede of Tigray News interviewed me on 9 March 2026; the title of the 50-minute video is "Iran Conflict: Sparking a Global Conflict." 

The first forty minutes dealt with the on-going war in Iran while the final ten minutes focused on the situation in the Horn of Africa.  I began my remarks on Iran with the caveat that this is not my area of specialization although I try to follow developments in the Middle East as well as the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.  

UN Peacekeepers Defy South Sudan Government Order to Abandon Town

 The Associated Press published on 10 March 2026 an article titled "UN Peacekeepers Defy South Sudan Military's Order to Leave Opposition-held Town" by Florence Miettaux and Deng Machol.  

The UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan refused to comply with an order from the South Sudan government to shut down its base in Akobo, an opposition stronghold near the Ethiopian border where thousands of refugees have fled.  South Sudan government forces intend to attack the town.

Emerging Quad of North African and Middle East Middle Powers

 World Politics Review published on 10 March 2026 an analysis titled "War and Disorder Are Mobilizing the Middle East's Middle Powers" by Dalia Ghanem and Ahmed Morsy, both with the Middle East Council on Global Affairs in Doha.  

A new loosely aligned "statist Quad" of traditional middle powers--Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey--is trying to reassert itself and actively coordinate on the region's most volatile crises.  The four countries are fundamentally statist powers that view governing systems in which centralized authority, often with the military as its backbone, as the sole guarantor of social order.

Acting sometimes in concert, sometimes on their own, they are seeking to intervene in a regional order whose current chaos poses an existential threat to their national interests.  They have focused so far on the crises in Iran, Yemen, Sudan, Somaliland, Libya, and the Sahel region of Africa.  

Ethiopia: More on Genocide in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 9 March 2026 a commentary titled "When Genocide Becomes a Shield Against Accountability" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare, a lawyer focused on human rights.

This is a counterpoint to the commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit and Ella Atsbeha reposted below on 16 February.  The author concludes that genocide intensifies the obligation to examine how power was exercised across time.  Leadership that fails at every stage of a crisis loses its mandate.  

What Is Restraining Iran-backed Houthis from Entering Conflict?

 Aljazeera published on 7 March 2026 an article titled "Why Yemen's Houthis Are Staying Out of Israel-US Fight with Iran--for Now."

Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have limited their support for Tehran to rhetoric and a mass protest denouncing the US-Israeli strikes.  The Houthis seem to fear Israel intelligence and the possibility of leadership decapitation.  At the same time, the Houthi leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, said his group's engagement in the war could occur at any moment depending on developments.  

Will Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen Resume Attacks on Israel and Red Sea Shipping?

 The Hause of Saud, a Saudi Royal Family news and information platform, posted on 6 March 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthi Trigger--Why Yemen's Decision Could Be More Dangerous Than the Iran War Itself" by Abdul Mohammed.

In an excellent and timely analysis, the author explains that the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen are debating whether to join the Iran war.  If they resume attacks on Red Sea international shipping alongside the Hormuz closure, 28 percent of global oil trade faces simultaneous disruption.  

The Houthis are engaged in the single most important strategic decision facing any non-state actor in the current conflict. Their choice to enter or abstain from the Iran war will determine whether the world faces an unprecedented dual-chokepoint crisis, whether Saudi Arabia's $500 billion NEOM megaproject becomes a frontline target, and whether the global economy tips from disruption into recession.  

The Houthis must decide whether to join Iran in opposing Operation Epic Fury or abandon Iran.  There are apparently sharp disagreements among Houthi factions over how to respond.  

The Case for Genocide in Ethiopia's War in Tigray

 

Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.  

The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.  

This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.  

China's Port Network Clusters Near Chokepoints

 The Conversation published on 4 March 2026 an analysis titled "Far from Random, China's Global Port Network Is Clustering Near the World's Riskiest Trade Routes" by Dylan Spencer, Georgia Southern University, Gohar Petrossian, John Jay School of Criminal Justice, and Stephen Pires, Florida International University.

Chinese companies now own or operate terminals at more than 90 ports worldwide.  This program is not random; the investments cluster near maritime chokepoints and piracy-prone shipping corridors such as the Suez Canal/Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, and Strait of Malacca.  Proximity to critical trade bottlenecks strongly predicts Chinese port investment.  

South Africa Convinces Russia to Return Its Nationals Duped into Fighting in Ukraine

 Aljazeera published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "'Our Children Were Sold Off': The South Africans Sent to Fight Russia's War" by Chris Makhaye.  

Russia recruited South Africans to become VIP bodyguards who were then given brief military training and conscripted by a paramilitary group to fight in Ukraine.  Most of the South Africans became cannon fodder on the Russian front lines. An appeal by South Africa's president to Vladimir Putin managed to get their return to their families.