The International Crisis Group published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa."
A new war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Region of Ethiopia is palpable. It is gripped by rising tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa, on one side, and the Tigray Region and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, on the other. Recent developments suggest they are getting ready for conflict.
The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in 2025 a study titled "From Risk to Response: Addressing the Climate-Conflict-Displacement Nexus."
Somalia consistently ranks among the world's most climate-vulnerable countries. Climate change is the primary driver of internally displaced people (IDPs) in the country. One in every 25 displaced individuals globally resides in Somalia. Climate-vulnerable states are also more likely to experience civil unrest and political instability.
Ukraine's Mezha published on 10 February 2026 an article titled "Russia Expands Influence in Africa Ahead of 2026 Summit."
Russia is sending more diplomatic staff to its embassies in Africa. In 2025, some 35,000 African students studied in Russian universities. Russia is ramping up its soft power across the continent.
South Africa's Daily Maverick published on 8 February 2026 an article titled "New Assistant Secretary of State for Africa: Manager of Trump Policies for the Continent He Hates?" by J. Brooks Spector.
Frank W. Garcia is the Trump administration nominee to be the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs. A Congressional staffer focusing on intelligence issues, he has limited exposure to Africa. He is now a senior adviser to the House of Representatives Select Committee on Intelligence. He replaces Nick Checker, a former CIA analyst who had the title of senior bureau officer for African affairs but not assistant secretary.
Africa Business Insider published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Following Massive Diplomatic Expulsions from Europe, Russia Redirects Its Envoys to Africa" by Chinedu Okafor.
Russia's TASS news service estimates that more than 500 Russian diplomats have been asked to leave European countries since the beginning of the war with Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia has shifted 120 to 150 diplomats from Europe and reassigned most of them to embassies in Africa, especially in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali.
Africa News published on 17 February 2026 an article titled "Nigeria Issues Warning over Illegal Recruitment of Its Citizens for Russia's War in Ukraine."
The Nigerian foreign ministry issued a statement on 15 February expressing "grave concern over the rising and alarming cases of Nigerian citizens being illegally recruited to participate in foreign armed conflict." The statement did not mention Russia or any state, but at least 36 Nigerians reportedly have been recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine, and it is widely believed that is the reason for the warning.
Modern Diplomacy published on 14 February 2026 a commentary titled "Egypt's Shadow War: Partnering with China to Curb Mossad's Influence Across Africa" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University Egypt.
The author states that Egypt and China are working together to counter Israeli intelligence activities, specifically those of Mossad, in Africa. Egypt is particularly concerned with Mossad activities in Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, and Eritrea. China has reportedly provided Egypt with advanced radar and electronic warfare systems.
Ethiopia Insight published on 17 February 2026 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Role in the Tigray Genocide" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University and manager of the Tigray Genocide website.
The author argues that Eritrean troops joined those from the Ethiopian federal government to engage in a genocide against Tigrayans during the war in Tigray.
The African Union Peace and Security Council adopted on 12 February 2026 a Communique on the Situation in Sudan.
The Communique called on member states to respect the territorial integrity and unity of Sudan and the total rejection of a parallel government led by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. It welcomed the return to Khartoum of the Transitional Government of Sudan. It condemned unnamed external actors for fueling the conflict in Sudan.
World Politics Review published on 16 February 2026 an article titled "In Ethiopia, a Slow-Burning Insurgency Takes a Dire Humanitarian Toll" by Jane Cybulski, a pseudonym for a journalist who specializes in the Horn of Africa.
The article discusses the humanitarian crisis caused by the ongoing conflict in Amhara Region between the Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force.
The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 16 February 2026 a news release titled "Ethiopia Revokes Journalists' Accreditation Following Investigative Report."
The Committee to Protect Journalists has called on Ethiopian authorities to restore the accreditation of 3 Reuters journalists who were banned from reporting following an in-depth report that Ethiopia was secretly training forces to fight on behalf of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.
The South China Morning Post published on 15 February 2026 an article titled "How a 'Military Vacuum' in West and Central Africa Opened New Markets for China" by Jevans Nyabiage.
As France retreats from parts of Africa and Russia is preoccupied with its war against Ukraine, Chinese companies have stepped up their arms transfers and military training. China's equipment is affordable and comes without conditions.
China-Africa Security Radar published on 16 February 2026 an analysis titled "Beijing Rejects U.S. Allegations of Financing Terror in Nigeria's Illegal Mining Sector--The Reality Is More Complex."
Prominent Republican members of the US Congress have sponsored a bill that alleges Chinese individuals and companies involved in illegal mining pay "protection money" to Fulani militias and other armed groups to secure access to lithium and gold deposits. The bill links these militias to terrorist violence that has impacted Nigerian Christian communities.
The Chinese embassy in Abuja issued a strongly worded statement refuting allegations that Chinese nationals are funding militant groups to gain access to minerals in Nigeria's Middle Belt and northwestern region.
China-Africa Security Radar concludes that it is generally agreed there is illegal Chinese mining in Nigeria, but the culprits are pragmatically paying "rent" to armed groups to access the minerals.
Ethiopia Insight published on 15 February 2026 a commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit, who now resides in Belgium, and Ella Atsbeha, who also lives outside Ethiopia.
This is an "in the weeds" analysis of what went wrong in the Tigray War. The authors take issue with the views of analysts such as Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot.
Chatham House published on 13 February 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Summit Is an Opportunity for Decisive Action to End the War in Sudan" by Hubert Kinkoh.
The author argued that the 14-15 February African Union Summit was an opportunity for decisive leadership on Sudan. The AU has been increasingly peripheral to competing diplomatic tracks. The AU must assert its primacy and enforce diplomatic coherence.
The Diplomat published on 14 February 2026 an article titled "The Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway: Still Growing 8 Years Later" by Istvan Tarrosy, Zoltan Voros, and Ali Miganeh Hadi.
Inaugurated in 2017, the Chinese-built railway is a lifeline for landlocked Ethiopia. In 2024, Ethiopia and Djibouti took responsibility from China for managing the railway. Projects are underway to construct spur lines and pressure remains to improve profit margins.
Kenya's The Star published on 14 February 2026 an article titled "China to AU: Xi Pledges Full Rollout of Zero Tariff Treatment for Africa" by Moses Ogada.
President Xi Jinping informed the African Union on 14 February that China starting on 1 May 2026 will fully implement zero-tariff treatment for the 53 African countries that recognize Beijing. This means that Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan, is the only African country that will not benefit from zero tariff treatment.
Geeska posted on 14 February 2026 an article titled "Getachew: Ethiopia Won't Be a 'Passive Bystander' after Reuters Report."
The Ethiopian government declined to renew the accreditation of three Addis Ababa-based journalists working for Reuters following an in-depth Reuters report about a training camp near the Sudan border for the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. See the story posted below on 10 February. Ethiopian authorities did not publicly cite the reasons for the decision.
Ethiopia Insight published on 13 February 2026 a commentary titled "Reimagining Ethiopia's Constitutional Architecture" by Nagessa Dube, a lawyer in Seattle, Washington.
The author argues that Ethiopia needs constitutional reform. Courts now have almost no authority to interpret the constitution; it is in the hands of a political body. He believes constitutional interpretation needs to be transferred to an independent judiciary and the ongoing National Dialogue offers a rare chance to make this change.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 12 February 2026 an article titled "South Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.
The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) and the Nuer White Army militia launched a new offensive in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile states in South Sudan. Forces from the government of South Sudan responded with a counteroffensive. Competing Sudan Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan may try to exploit the situation in South Sudan for advantage in their own civil war.
Reuters published on 12 February 2026 an article titled "Can Africa Win as the West and China Scramble for Minerals?" by Clyde Russell.
Competing Western and Chinese rail projects in a mineral rich part of Africa emphasize the competition for Africa's critical minerals. A question remains, however, if the African countries will benefit significantly from this competition.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 12 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.
The Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa is increasing its troop strength near Tigray Region indicating this may be a prelude to a military campaign. Eritrea is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front and has troops inside Tigray Region. In the event of a government attack, Eritrea is expected to side with the Tigray Defense Forces,
Ethiopia Insight published on 12 February 2026 a commentary titled "Can a People's Pact Heal a War of Elites?" by Giday Amare, a public servant in the health care sector.
The author wants ordinary Tigrayans and Eritreans to come together at the people-to-people level in an effort to heal old wounds and overcome divisive actions of elites on both sides of the border.
The Telegraph published on 12 February 2026 an article titled "'Mine, Baby Mine': Trump Races to Catch Up to China in New Scramble for Africa's Minerals" by Ben Farmer.
Washington is trying to overturn more than 20 years of Chinese dominance in which Beijing has taken control of mining and refining of critical minerals. This competition is playing out this week at a major mining meeting in South Africa.
The Lagos-based African Finance Corporation recently posted its "Compendium of Africa's Strategic Minerals 2026."
This is a major study of Africa's critical minerals, industrial minerals, uranium, and rare earths. It also noted that China controls about 90 percent of global manganese refining, approximately 90 percent of rare earth separation and refining, and dominates battery-grade graphite processing.
