Ethiopia Announces Construction of Three New Dams on Blue Nile

 The New Arab published on 24 March 2026 an article titled "Egyptian Outrage as Ethiopia Announces Plans for More Dams on Blue Nile" by Saleh Salem.  

Ethiopia has announced plans to construct 3 new dams on the Blue Nile, the location of the recently completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).  The 3 dams will be constructed within 4 to 7 years and will be able to start operating simultaneously.  Costing $3.5 billion each, the 3 dams will increase Ethiopia's electricity generation by 20 to 25 percent.

Egypt has reacted harshly to the announcement, arguing that the dams will further increase water shortages downstream when they begin operating as is the case with the GERD.  

Comment: It is true that the GERD and the 3 new dams hold back water from downstream Sudan and Egypt during the period when Ethiopia is filling the reservoir behind the dams.  But once the reservoir is full as in the case of the GERD today, Blue Nile River water flows normally. The only serious concern for downstream Sudan and Egypt occurs if there are several years of drought in the Nile Basin, reducing the water flow for all three countries, including the amount of water in the reservoirs of the dams that produce hydropower for Ethiopia.   

Ethiopia Says It Attracted $13 Billion in Mostly Chinese Investment

Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs posted on 30 March 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Investment Surge and the Strategic Repositioning of Addis Ababa as Africa's Diplomatic-Economic Nexus" by Kena Seyife.  

The "Invest in Ethiopia 2026 Forum" attracted over 800 investors from more than 50 countries and secured over $13 billion in investment commitments.  China's Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Ltd. committed to invest $10 billion in green ammonia and electrical equipment.  The article cautions that Ethiopia's success will depend on its ability to translate investments into tangible economic transformation. 

Comment: Ethiopia is facing several internal security challenges that must be addressed before this kind of investment actually materializes.  It will be important to monitor how many of these commitments valued at $13 billion result in completed projects.    

China's Zero Tariffs for Africa Provide Positive Publicity at Little Cost (in French)

 Thierry Pairault posted on 28 March 2026 a working paper titled "Tarif zero: un petit geste qui ne coute presque rien."

This is the first of two analyses Thierry Pairault has posted on the impact of Beijing's decision to allow imports from 53 African countries to enter China duty free beginning 1 May.  He explains this is an inexpensive gesture that will not have much practical impact. The second working paper was reposted on 30 March below.

China's trade surplus with Africa continues to grow.  China exports value-added goods to Africa while Africa exports mostly raw materials and some agricultural products to China.  A small number of African countries account for most of the continent's exports to China.  

China's zero tariff treatment of African imports may benefit some agricultural products such as coffee and tobacco, but it will not change significantly existing China-Africa trade patterns.  

US-China Competition for Minerals in DRC

 Mining Focus Africa published on 30 March 2026 an article titled "Democratic Republic of Congo and China Deepen Mining Ties Amid Global Minerals Race" by Michael Van Wyk.

The focus of the most recent China-DRC minerals collaboration includes geological data sharing, investment protection, and ensuring that more raw materials are processed in the DRC rather than exported in unrefined form.  The agreement coincides with a US strategic partnership with the DRC aimed at boosting Western investment and reducing reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains.  

Why Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis Have Not Yet Resumed Attacks on Red Sea Shipping

 The House of Saud published on 27 March 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthis Could End Saudi Arabia's War in Forty-Eight Hours" by Abdul Mohammed.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have not resumed attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran.  The Houthis did recently resume attacks, however, against Israel.  The question is why the Houthis have not supported Iran by resuming the disruption of shipping through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb choke point, putting even greater pressure on oil prices.

The reasons why the Houthis have held back so far include (1) they may be holding fire in order to serve as a strategic card to be played later by Iran; (2) they experienced earlier bombing by the United States that resulted in significant damage and don't want to deal with that situation again; (3) they see value in maintaining the detente they have with Saudi Arabia; and (4) they control a large civilian population which they don't want to endanger by attacks from Saudi Arabia or the United States.

The author also identifies four possible triggers that could lead to a resumption of Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.  

China's Zero Tariffs in Africa Likely to Have Minimal Impact (in French)

 Thierry Pairault posted a working paper on 30 March 2026 titled "Tarif zero: Bruxelles face a Pekin."

Beginning on 1 May 2026, China will implement a zero-tariff policy for African countries.  Pairault argues that in the few sectors where the zero tariff could theoretically encourage African exports of processed or manufactured goods to China, Beijing has little interest in allowing them to develop as they would compete with actively protected industries.  He then demonstrates that the import structures of the European Union and China shed light on this asymmetry.

UAE and Saudi Arabia Vie for African Influence

 African Business published on 30 March 2026 an article titled "UAE and Saudi Arabia Vie for African Influence" by Harry Clynch.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once allied in defeating the Houthis in Yemen, now find themselves increasingly at cross purposes in the Horn of Africa.  They compete for investment opportunities and political influence throughout the Horn.   

Is State Capitalism Best Way to Compete with China for Critical Minerals?

 The Washington Post published on 28 March 2026 an editorial titled "Yet Another Step Toward State Capitalism."

The US International Development Finance Corporation has taken a 20 percent stake in a graphite mine in Mozambique to counter China's control of the world's supply of graphite.  This is a tactic the Trump administration has used in other deals to control critical minerals.  The editorial asks if this is the best use of taxpayer funding when they will be left holding the bag if the company fails.  

Kenya and China Advance Trade and Railway Cooperation

 The South China Morning Post published on 27 March 2026 an article titled "Kenya Secures Trade Deal with China but Rising Debt, US Competition Complicates Deeper Ties" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Kenya secured trade and infrastructure deals during a visit by China's Vice President Han Zheng but Nairobi's rising debt and balancing ties with the West complicates its relationship with Beijing.  

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis Resume Attacks on Israel; Is Red Sea Next?

 The Times of Israel published on 28 March 2026 an article titled "Houthi Missile Attack on Israel Stokes Fears of Renewed Strikes on Red Sea Shipping."

Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missile and drone attacks on Israel on 28 March, marking the first Houthi response since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran.  The strikes raise the specter of renewed Houthi attacks to disrupt international shipping in the Red Sea.  About 12 percent of world trade passes through the Suez Canal and Red Sea.

Another Prediction of Regional War in the Horn of Africa

 World Politics Review published on 26 March 2026 an article titled "A Looming 'Mega-War' in the Horn of Africa" by Elliot Waldman.

The author is of the view that Ethiopian support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan's civil war and growing internal conflict in Ethiopia open the prospect for a "regional mega-war."

Are June Elections Viable in Ethiopia?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 28 March 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Heads to Elections Amid War and Instability" by Eyob Tilahun Abera, Mekelle University.

Ethiopia is scheduled to have national elections in June.  Scattered conflict in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia regions poses serious challenges to organizing and campaigning.  The author argues that elections held under such conditions could deepen divisions within the country.

Leader of South African Communist Party Visits China

 Friends of Socialist China posted on 25 March 2026 an article titled "South African Communist Party Visits China."

A delegation of the South African Communist Party (SACP) led by Solly Afrika Mapaila, the general secretary of the party, met in mid-March with Liu Haixing, Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC).  The SACP is part of the ruling coalition in South Africa.

The two parties agreed to strengthen communication, exchanges, and party building.  

Will War with Iran Impact the Horn of Africa?

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 27 March 2026 an analysis titled "Exacerbating the Risk of Fragility: Consequences of Iran War on the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa Region."

The Horn of Africa and Red Sea may become an arena for escalating regional and international conflict as Iran seeks to expand its confrontation with the US and Israel.  It could escalate existing local conflicts, intensify competition by regional powers such as Türkiye and Egypt, and cause a recalibration of foreign policy alignments.  

Rapid Support Forces Makes Gains in Blue Nile State with UAE and Ethiopian Help

 AEI's Critical Threat Africa File posted on 26 March 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Elliot Nazar.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied SPLM-N have taken control of the southern part of Sudan's Blue Nile State, which borders Ethiopia.  The UAE is now supplying the RSF through Ethiopia and across the border into Blue Nile State.  

Zimbabwe Complains that Russia Is Luring Its Nationals to Fight in Ukraine

 APA News published on 26 March 2026 an article titled "Over 80 Zimbabweans Lured into Russia-Ukraine War, 15 Killed."

Zimbabwe accused Russia of fraudulently recruiting its nationals to fight in the war with Ukraine.  Fifteen Zimbabwe nationals have died in the war and the government in Harare is working to repatriate 66 others.

How Does Africa Benefit from China's Zero Tariffs?

 Kenya's The Star published on 24 March 2026 an article titled "Africa Needs a Harmonised Strategy to Enjoy China's Zero-Tariff Treatment, Expert Reveals" by Rading Biko.

To take full advantage of China's new zero tariff policy, African countries need to pursue a harmonized strategy, meet Chinese import standards, and encourage value addition to African exports.  

Why Russia is Losing Africa's Sahel

 Foreign Affairs published on 25 March 2026 an article titled "Why Russia Is Losing the Sahel" by Frederic Wehrey and Andrew S. Weiss, both at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

As Russia confronts shortcomings in its own capacity and the complexities of an environment it never fully understood, its expansion into the Sahel is on the verge of stalling, if not unraveling entirely.  Moscow's initiatives should serve as a cautionary tale for other African states contemplating whether to accept Russian security assistance.  This is also an opportunity for the United States to return.  

China Increases Lithium Investments in DRC

 Discovery Alert posted on 25 March 2026 an article titled "DRC Lithium Project: $1.4B Investment Transforming Africa's Mining Sector" by Muflih Hidayat.

China's Zijin Mining Group will have a 55 percent controlling interest in a $1.4 billion joint investment with the DRC government in a lithium mining project that will potentially contribute almost 5 percent of global mined lithium output by 2028.

The DRC project represents a paradigm shift in how international mining companies approach African mineral extraction.  Rather than focus on raw material export, this approach integrates downstream processing capabilities directly into mining operations.  

Is the Horn of Africa Destined for Another Cycle of Violence?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 24 March 2026 a commentary titled "The Looming War to Eclipse the Horn's Past Conflicts" by Nebiyu Daniel Meshesha, former Ethiopian diplomat.

The author argues that earlier dynamics in the Horn of Africa that once fractured states and redrew borders now risk drawing Ethiopia into a similar spiral, with potentially profound consequences for the region.  The Horn of Africa may once again find itself trapped in a cycle of conflict.

Future of Voice of America and Sister Outlets

 The Poynter Institute, a global non-profit focused on ethical journalism, published on 20 March 2026 an in-depth report titled "A Year After Trump Administration Cuts, Voice of America and Its Sister Outlets Are Mostly Shadows of Their Former Selves" by Angela Fu.

After being largely shut down for more than a year on orders from the Trump administration, a federal judge has allowed the Voice of America (VOA) and its sister organizations under the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM) to resume operations.  The other outlets are the Office of Cuba Broadcasting, Radio Free Asia, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and the Middle East Broadcasting Network.  

VOA had approximately 800 employees and 600 contractors in March 2025 broadcasting in 49 languages.  Today it has about 130 total staff reporting in just 6 languages.  The other employees, but not contractors, were placed on paid leave.  Radio Free Asia, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and the Middle East Broadcasting Network were able to continue limited broadcasting because, unlike VOA and the Office of Cuba Broadcasting, they are independent organizations.  But they lost funding and experienced major cuts.  

The future of all of the broadcasting outlets remains uncertain.  The biggest challenge will be to regain the trust of the audience that the VOA and other outlets had before the Trump administration tried to dismantle them.  

African Country Military Strength Ranking

 Global Firepower has released its "2026 Military Strength Ranking" that evaluates 145 countries based on 60 factors in the categories of manpower, military equipment, finances, logistics, natural resources, and geography.  The ranking included 38 of the 54 countries in Africa.

The ten highest ranked African countries were Egypt (19), Algeria (27). Nigeria (33), South Africa (40), Ethiopia (47), Morocco (56), Angola (59), DRC (64), Sudan (66), and Tunisia (79).

Sudan: UAE Establishes New Routes to Supply Rapid Support Forces

 The Clash Report posted on 23 March 2026 an article titled "UAE Tries to Rewire Supply Routes to Sudan's RSF via Ethiopia & Central African Republic."

The United Arab Emirates is restructuring its logistical network to sustain supply lines to Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, shifting routes through Ethiopia and the Central African Republic as existing corridors in Chad and Libya face pressure.  

China's Vice President Visits South Africa, Strengthens Security Ties

 Otto's Journal, a digital news publication based in New York, posted on 22 March 2026 an article titled "South Africa and China Strengthen Security Ties in 2026 Pretoria Summit" by Thabiso Mkhwanazi.  

South Africa welcomed Chinese Vice President Han Zheng where discussions are expected to prioritize bilateral security cooperation, implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and South Africa's evolving role in a multipolar world as Pretoria navigates a complex relationship with the United States and deepens its ties with BRICS countries.

Chinese Embassy in Zimbabwe Warns Its Mining Companies

 Reuters published on 19 March 2026 an article titled "Beijing Tells Chinese Firms to Strengthen Zimbabwe Risk Prevention after Mineral Export Ban."  

The Chinese embassy in Harare warned Chinese mining companies to uphold local laws and regulations after Zimbabwe suspended exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrate.