Ethiopian Prime Minister Quietly Manipulates Political Forces in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 April 2026 a commentary titled "Abiy Is Quietly Dismantling Tigray" by Asmelash Yohannes Teklu, former senior advisor at the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. 

The Tigray People's Liberation Front bears responsibility for its internal fractures, which the federal government is using to its advantage.  As a result, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has secured outcomes through quiet, calculated maneuvering that advance his strategic interests while avoiding the scrutiny that a return to war would incite.  Tigray remains deeply divided.  

China-Africa Trade Grows but So Does Africa's Deficit

 Ecofin Agency published on 27 April 2026 an article titled "China-Africa Trade in 2026: Cooperation, but Not on Equal Terms" by Idriss Linge.

As exports to the United States fall sharply, China is turning increasingly to Africa to export its consumer and industrial products.  During the first quarter of 2026, China-Africa trade reached $92 billion, up 27 percent year on year.  But while Chinese exports to Africa rose 32 percent, African exports to China increased by only 18 percent.  Africa's trade deficit with China for the quarter reached $29 billion, nearly $10 billion higher than a year earlier.  

The zero-tariff policy announced for Africa by Xi Jinping beginning 1 May 2026 is largely cosmetic and will make little difference in the trade relationship because 95 percent of African exports to China already enter the country duty free.  

Revival of Somali Piracy

 BBC News posted on 27 April 2026 an article titled "Pirates Seize Another Vessel off Somali Coast as Threat Level Increased" by Harry Sekulich.

After a long period of inactivity, at least 4 vessels have been targeted by pirates off northern Somalia in the past week.  Pirates seized an oil tanker with an international crew and a Somali-flagged fishing vessel.  

War with Iran and Implications for Africa: 7 May Panel Session

 The Global Affairs Forum of the Africa Governance Centre, an independent think tank based in Accra, Ghana, is hosting a panel discussion on 7 May dealing with the implications of the Iran conflict for global stability and African strategic interests.  It begins at 9:00 am Eastern Time in the United States and Canada.  You can register for the event at this link.  

The panelists are:

--Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, High Representative for Silencing the Guns, African Union

--Amb. David Shinn, adjunct professor of international affairs, George Washington University

--Dr. Isaac Olawale Albert, professor of African history, peace and conflict studies, University of Ibadan

--Dr. Victor Kofi Afetoriom Doke, research fellow and lecturer, Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre

--Dr. Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah, postdoctoral fellow, Lingnan University, Hong Kong  

Foreign Minister Represents Taiwan at Eswatini Celebration

 The Taipei Times published on 26 April 2026 an article titled "Lin Chia-lung Visits Eswatini as Envoy."

Following the cancellation of overflight permission by Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar for the president of Taiwan to attend the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III's accession to the throne, Taiwan's foreign minister arrived in Eswatini as his country's special envoy at the celebration.  

China Adds Another Cooperative Program with Africa

 Addis Ababa's Capital newspaper published on 26 April 2026 an article titled "Addis Ababa Hosts Inaugural China-Africa Entrepreneurs Summit, with AU Calling for Youth-led Growth" by Groum Abate.

The African Union in Addis Ababa hosted the inaugural China-Africa Entrepreneurs Summit focused on trade, investment, industrial cooperation, and entrepreneurship.  Remarks by Ethiopia's president and the AU Commission Chairperson underscored the importance of yet another formal link between China and Africa.  

China and Mozambique Expand Relations

 The South China Morning Post published on 25 April 2026 an article titled "China and Mozambique to Map Critical Minerals in Insurgency-Hit Cabo Delgado" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

During a state visit to China, Mozambique's President Daniel Chapo signed a wide-ranging joint communique dealing with cooperation on critical minerals, natural gas, and rare earths.  China also agreed to provide more support, not spelled out, for combatting an insurgency in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado region.  

African Bank Explores Chinese Yuan Payments Program

 Nigeria Startup News posted on 24 April 2026 an article titled "Ecobank Moves to Enable Direct Yuan Payments for Africa-China Trade by 2026" by Paulinus Sunday. 

Pan-African Ecobank is in discussion with the Bank of China to establish a settlement framework that would allow payments to be made in Chinese yuan by the end of 2026, reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar.  Ecobank's yuan settlement plan signals a growing shift towards a more diversified and multipolar payments ecosystem for African trade.

China-Taiwan Tension in Aftermath of Cancelled Visit to Eswatini

 Academicjobs.com posted on 23 April 2026 an article titled "China-Taiwan Tensions Escalate: African Airspace Denials Force President's Africa Trip Cancellation."

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te was set to attend the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III's accession to the throne in Eswatini.  The president cancelled the visit at the last minute when Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar revoked overflight permission for the presidential aircraft.  

Taipei charged that Beijing pressured the three countries to revoke the overflight permission.  Beijing did not acknowledge any role but praised the action of the three countries.  The United States condemned China's intimidation campaign.

China-Africa Trade: Windfall for African Resource Exporters but Challenge for Others

 Ecofin Agency published on 20 April 2026 an article titled "China-Africa Trade: Windfall Gains for Resource Giants in Q1 2026, but a Deeper Structural Reality Behind" by Idriss Linge.

A small number of African countries--DRC (cobalt), Angola (oil), Guinea (bauxite), and South Africa (critical minerals) in the first quarter of 2026 captured the bulk of the gains in exports to China.  The deeper story points to a structural shift in how Africa is being integrated into China's global economic strategy.

The growing trade between China and Africa is driven by Africa's extractive sectors with limited industrial spillovers and constrained economic transformation.  Africa is becoming a critical outlet for Chinese industrial exports.  The key question going forward is whether African economies can leverage this situation to move up the value chain.  

Ethiopia's TPLF Threatens to Consolidate Control Over Tigray Region

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 23 April 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.   

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of hardliner Debretsion Gebremichael, announced its intention to reinstate the pre-Tigray war regional government, which would effectively void the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022.

TPLF control of Tigray region would increase the risk of large-scale armed conflict between the federal government and the TPLF.

Sudanese Civilians Pay the Price of War in the Nuba Mountains

 The Christian Science Monitor published on 15 April 2026 an article titled "After 3 Years of War, Sudanese Civilians Pay the Price" by Sophie Neiman and Guy Peterson.

This account focuses on the Sudanese conflict in the Nuba Mountains where the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is aligned with the SPLM-N against the Sudan Armed Forces.  

US in Discussion with Eritrea over Possible Reset in Relations

 The Wall Street Journal published on 22 April 2026 an article titled "U.S. Seeks to Reset Ties with Reclusive but Strategically Vital African State" by Robbie Gramer and Summer Said. 

The Trump administration is exploring ways to reset relations with Eritrea, beginning with the lifting of sanctions.  The administration's special envoy for Africa, Massad Boulos, first met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki late last year in Cairo.  

The US war in Ian has elevated the importance of freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, where Eritrea has a long coastline.  

Russia Doubles Down in Africa's Sahel

 The Sentry published in April 2026 a study titled "Doubling Down: Russia's Military Network in West Africa."

Russia's Wagner Group withdrew from Mali in June 2025, largely handing over operations to the Kremlin-controlled Africa Corps, which has about the same number of troops as Wagner and many of them are former Wagner fighters.  Some core leadership also remains the same.

The Africa Corps has been moving a large quantity of weapons into Mali, which suggests that Russia is doubling down on Mali, despite the concurrent withdrawal and multiple failures of the Wagner Group.  

US Competes More Directly with Russia in Africa

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File published on 21 April 2026 an article titled "US Competes with Russia and Others as It Engages African Autocrats" by Liam Karr, Yale Ford, and Zoe Sommer.  

The Trump administration has put the United States in more direct competition with Russia in Africa, especially in states that have come under military control.  The US is primarily pursuing security-related interests and exploring opportunities for cooperation on critical minerals.  

Examining Russia's Influence in Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in April 2026 a study titled "Russia in Africa: Examining Moscow's Influence and Its Limits" edited by Nate Reynolds, Frances Z. Brown, Frederic Wehrey, and Andres S. Weiss.  

The collection of essays explores Russia's role, its appeal, and its limitations across very different parts of the continent--from West Africa and the Sahel to Southern Africa.  It dives into Russia's interests and tools and explains how they vary over time and between places.  It explores the agency and interests of African governments and citizens.

The collection contains the following essays:

--Introduction by Frances Z. Brown and Nate Reynolds

--Moscow's Dual-Track Africa Playbook: Transactional Security Deals in the Sahel, Enduring Political Capital in Southern Africa by Priyal Singh

--The Drivers and Limits of Russia's Appeal in West Africa and the Sahel by Jean-Herve Jezequel

--Russia's Geopolitical Hedging in the Sahel and West Africa by Anouar Boukhars

--Russia Risks Falling into the Sahel Security Trap by Hanna Rae Armstrong

--Battle for the Narrative: Africa in the Crosshairs of Russian Influence by Bah Traore

--Russia Eyes Expanded Role in Coastal West African States by Beverly Ochieng

--The Bear Down South: Russia's Relations with Southern Africa by Steven Gruzd and Friedrich von Treskow

--South Africa's Relationship with Russia: Navigating Historical Legacies, Domestic Change, and Geopolitical Complexities by Ray Hartley

--Beyond Material: Russia's Appeal to Southern African States by Philani Mthembu

Taiwan President Cancels Visit to Eswatini Following Overflight Denial by Three Countries

 The BBC published on 22 April 2026 an article titled "Taiwan President Cancels Trip after African Countries Revoke Flight Permits" by Yvette Tan.

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te cancelled a trip to Eswatini, accusing China of putting pressure on other countries to bar his aircraft from flying over their territories.  A Taiwan official said Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar revoked Lai's flight permits after "intense pressure" and economic coercion from Beijing.  

How Conflict in Africa Shapes Chinese Investment

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 21 April 2026 an article titled "Recent Study Maps How Conflict in Africa Shapes Chinese Investment."

A recent study by scholars affiliated with the People's Public Security University of China maps how China's expanding presence in Africa intersects with regions already characterized by persistent and, in many cases, escalating conflict.  The study tracks how armed conflict across Africa has evolved between 1997 and 2024 and what this shift means for China's economic and strategic exposure, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative.

The authors identify a consistent pattern, which is that in certain contexts, weaknesses in labor relations, environmental management, and community engagement can contribute to local dissatisfaction.  In some cases, this dissatisfaction escalates into protests or localized unrest around Chinese projects.  As China's economic presence expands across conflict affected regions, the question of protecting overseas assets and personnel has become more central.  

Somali-China Satellite Cooperation

 The Eastleigh Voice published on 21 April 2026 an article titled "Somalia and China Sign MoU on Satellite Data and Remote Sensing at NewSpace Africa" by Abdirahman Khalif.  

Somalia's Department of Space and Satellites and China's Land Satellite Remote Sensing Application Centre signed an MoU at the NewSpace Africa Conference 2026 held in Libreville, marking increased engagement in space technology and satellite applications.  The MoU is expected to support training, technical exchange, and the development of practical systems for Somali institutions.  

Impact of China's Export Push on the Global South

 The Hinrich Foundation posted on 21 April 2026 an analysis titled "AI's Warning on the Risks of China's Export Push into the Global South."

This analysis was created with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) that looked at China's doubling down on exports as an engine for growth and its impact on the global economy.  While Chinese exports to the United States declined significantly in the past year, they have surged to Africa and ASEAN.   

AI predicts that China is transforming from being the world's consumer goods provider to the world's industrial goods provider.  China is providing the industrial backbone for Africa, the world's fastest growing region.  Beijing is ensuring that the next generation of global infrastructure is built on Chinese and not Western standards.  This situation may trigger, however, protectionism in the Global South.  

Chinese Gay Men in Africa

 Global China Pulse published on 20 April 2026 an article titled "Queering Chinese in Africa: The Unintended Sexual Migration of Chinese Gay Men" by Cai Chen, Universite libre de Bruxelles.

In an unusual piece of research, the author examines the migration trajectories, motivations, and experiences of three self-identified gay Chinese men who have lived in one or more African country.  

Taiwan-Somaliland Connection Drives China's Support for Somalia

 The Conversation published on 15 April 2026 a commentary titled "China's Military Support for Somalia Is on the Rise--What Taiwan and Somaliland Have to Do with It" by Brendon J. Cannon, Khalifa University.

Beijing has promised equipment, training, and closer security cooperation with Mogadishu.  The author argues that China is increasingly involved in Somalia because breakaway Somaliland has established close ties with Taiwan.

Russia's Recruitment Campaign in Africa for Mercenaries

 Global Issues posted on 20 April 2026 an article titled "Russia's African Cannon Fodder" by Andrew Firmin.  

The article reviews Russia's program to recruit Africans, often based on disinformation, to fight for Moscow in its war with Ukraine.  The top African countries for providing mercenaries to fight in Ukraine are Egypt, Cameroon, and Ghana.  

China Provides Grant to Seychelles

 teleSUR posted on 18 April 2026 an article titled "China Grants $14.6 Million to Seychelles to Fund Strategic Projects."

China recently provided 100 million yuan ($14.6 million) in grant assistance to Seychelles for infrastructure and food security projects.  

Comment:  While this is a modest amount for a grant aid contribution, the population of Seychelles is just over 100,000 and a modest sum can have a significant impact.  

China Steps Up Aid to Africa but It Falls Well Short of Filling Gap Left by US

 The South China Morning Post published on 19 April 2026 an article titled "China Steps Up Aid to Africa but Huge Funding Gap Left by Trump's Cuts Remains" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Large cuts in aid to Africa by the Trump administration (and other donors) have left major gaps in funding of essential programs.  China has increased its health diplomacy and donations of food aid but has hardly made a dent in the gap left by Washington and several other donor countries.