Status of Fired USAID Staff

 The Hill published on 22 July 2026 a commentary titled "The Dismantling of USAID and the Firing of Its Staff Was Illegal" by J. Brian Atwood and Kevin E. Burns.

The Trump administration has violated the Civil Service Reform Act of 1883, updated in 1978, by firing most USAID personnel without offering an opportunity for due process.

The Merit Systems Protection Board ruled that the president can remove career officials without due process.  Fired USAID employees are appealing this decision through the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

South Africa and China Deepen Artificial Intelligence Partnership

 The South African Government News Agency posted on 20 July 2026 a press release titled "South Africa, China Deepen AI and Science Partnership at Global Summit."

South Africa and China recently agreed to expand cooperation in the fields of artificial intelligence, joint research centers and laboratories, space science and astronomy, quantum computing, cybersecurity, and the Young Scientists Exchange Program.  

Chinese and Taiwanese Fleets Behind African Shark Fin Trade

 The Environmental Justice Foundation published on 16 July 2026 a report titled "Cut and Run: Exposing Senegal as a Gateway for the Global Shark Fin Trade."

This report examines the nature and extent of shark finning on board foreign vessels that call at Dakar, Senegal.  Shark finning is the practice of cutting off a shark's fins before throwing the body overboard.  The fins are then sold for human consumption.

The Environmental Justice Foundation conducted 124 interviews with Indonesian and Filipino fishers who worked on board Chinese and Taiwanese tuna longliners operating in the region.  The Chinese and Taiwanese fleets are repeatedly linked to shark finning in the region.  

Houthis Claim to Have Attacked Two Saudi Oil Tankers in Red Sea

 The Hill published on 23 July 2026 an article titled "Houthis Say 2 Saudi Oil Tankers Attacked in Red Sea" by Max Rego.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen say they struck two Saudi oil tankers, named Encelia and Layla, using ballistic and cruise missiles in the Red Sea earlier this week. So far, they have forced at least 10 other ships to turn around rather than pass through the Bab el-Mandeb choke point.  

Yemen's Houthis Reportedly Ready to Attack Shipping in Southern Red Sea

 CNBC posted on 22 July 2026 an article titled "Houthis Deploy Missiles and Drones to Attack Ships in Southern Red Sea, Naval Group Says" by Spencer Kimball.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have completed preparations to attack shipping, including the deployment of missiles and drones positioned near the Bab el-Mandeb choke point at the south end of the Red Sea. 

The European Union's naval mission in the Middle East warned commercial ships linked to Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States to avoid transiting the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden.

China-Africa Trade First Half 2026

 Thierry Pairault just posted a paper titled "The Tariff Exemption Saga and the Results for the First Half of 2026."

China's zero tariff policy for all countries in Africa except Eswatini took effect on 1 May.  During the first half of 2026 Africa's trade deficit with China widened from $44.7 billion to $57.9 billion as of the end of the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025.  Chinese exports to Africa rose by 21.8 percent and imports from Africa by 16.3 percent compared with the same period in 2025.

Eight African countries (South Africa, DRC, Zambia, South Sudan, Nigeria, Chad, Algeria, and Zimbabwe) accounted for about 94 percent of the increase in Chinese imports from Africa during this period.  Almost the entire increase in the value of African exports to China was due to the shock in world commodity prices, largely independent of the zero-tariff policy.  

Chinese Private Sector Investment in Angolan Port Terminal

 Business Insider Africa published on 21 July 2026 an article titled "Another African Country Gets $900 Million Chinese-backed Port Investment Amid Beijing's Billion-dollar Race Across the Continent" by Olamilekan Okebiorun.

China's Huatong Angola Industry has signed a $900 million deal with Angola's state-owned Barra do Dande Development Company covering a 25-year sub-concession for the construction and operation of a port terminal and supporting infrastructure.  This is entirely a private sector investment.

This deal is part of a new Chinese investment strategy in Africa that is moving away from large government-backed loans and towards foreign direct investment, private financing, and commercially viable projects.  

Oil Tankers Avoiding South End of Red Sea Following Houthi Threats

 The Indian Express published on 22 July 2026 an article titled "India-bound Oil Tanker Takes U-turn in Red Sea after Houthi Threat."

Two oil tankers headed south for India and one for China toward the Bab el-Mandeb choke point from the Saudi oil terminal of Yanbu in the Red Sea turned around and headed north through the Suez Canal following threats from the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

The tankers must now transit the Mediterranean Sea, sail around Africa, and pass the Cape of Good Hope before reaching India or China, adding significantly to shipping costs.  These are the first Saudi oil laden tankers to respond to the Houthi threat. 

Another oil tanker scheduled to load Saudi crude at Yanbu by entering the Red Sea through the Bab el-Mandeb choke point turned back off the coast of Oman.     

Houthi Threat to the Red Sea

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 20 July 2026 a background piece titled "Another Hormuz? What to Know About the Houthi Threat to the Red Sea" by Diana Roy.

The Yemen-based and Iranian-backed Houthis' decision to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia opens a new front in the U.S.-Iran war and threatens to choke off the Red Sea's 20-mile-wide Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with potentially major consequences for the global economy.

Why Does Trump Hate the State Department?

 The American Conservative published on 20 July 2026 an opinion piece titled "Why Does Trump Hate the State Department?" by Peter Van Buren.

This is a blanket condemnation of the State Department as an institution, at least under both Trump administrations if not all Republican presidencies.  The only positive comment about the Department comes at the end of Van Buren's remarks when he states: "Of course there will always be some role for the State Department overseas at least, primarily in consular staff assisting American citizens and the few traditional diplomats needed to handle the bureaucratic concierge work and VIP logistics that State has always been good at." 

Comment:  Van Buren's cherry-picked half-truths and non sequiturs are still a useful reminder to State Department personnel, who tend to be more liberal than the populists of the Trump administration, that it is important to follow the policy direction of the administration in power.

I spent thirty-seven years as a Foreign Service officer in the State Department under Republican and Democratic administrations (but not a Trump administration) and concluded that Department personnel with rare exception do, in fact, pursue the policies laid down by the White House.  

The Reagan administration, for example, attached considerable importance to support for the development of American trade and investment overseas. Appointed in the late 1980s by Reagan as ambassador to Burkina Faso, I devoted much of my three years in Ouagadougou promoting American trade and investment, albeit with only modest success.  My ambassadorial colleagues throughout Africa were equally supportive of Reagan administration policies.   

Reagan's Republican successor, George H.W. Bush, and his Secretary of State, James A. Baker was highly respected throughout the Department of State.  In return, I believe Bush and Baker respected State Department personnel.  It is simply not accurate to conclude, or at least imply, that State Department personnel do not follow the policies of Republican administrations.    

Van Buren writes that "State's Foreign Service Officers saw themselves as resistance superheroes who would take down Trump I."  This is utter nonsense.  Based on my continuing contact with active-duty officers, they are quietly doing their jobs as directed by political appointee supervisors or just trying to stay out of harm's way until there is an administration, Republican or Democratic, that gives them a little respect.  

China's New Gold Strategy Runs Through Africa

 TrendsNAfrica published on 1 July 2026 an article titled "China's New Gold Strategy Runs Through Africa:  How Beijing Is Rewriting the Global Bullion Market."

Beijing is quietly reshaping the mechanics of the international gold trade.  Its strategy involves dismantling speculative domestic paper-gold trading while building an international ecosystem centered on physical bullion, yuan-based settlements, and African mineral wealth.

About 40 percent of the world's remaining underground gold reserves are located in Africa.  China is reducing its holdings of US Treasury securities and replacing them with gold purchases, especially in Africa.  

Iran War Moves to Houthis and Red Sea

 Al-Monitor published on 20 July 2026 an article titled "As Houthis Declare Red Sea Blockade on Saudi Arabia, Oil Markets Brace for Impact" by Jack Dutton.  

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels said on 20 July that it was imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, as the regional war widens to threaten another key route for global oil supplies following disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.  Because of the problems in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has redirected much of its crude exports by pipeline through its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu.  

Ships sailing north of Yanbu for Europe through the Suez Canal will not be impacted by this Houthi action.  Those headed south for Asia through the Bab el-Mandeb choke point will be impacted and the Saudis may put at risk a large percentage of current crude exports.  If the Houthis successfully prevent the Saudis from passing through Bab el-Mandeb, global supplies could fall by as much as 7 percent.  

China Aims to Take Lead on Artificial Intelligence in Global South

 CNBC published on 17 July 2026 an article titled "Xi Pitches China as AI Partner to Developing World, Warns Against Risks and Security Overreach" by Lim Hui Jie.

China is reaching out to various blocs of nations in the Global South to build partnerships concerning AI.  The blocs include ASEAN, African Union, League of Arab States, and the BRICS.

Aljazeera published on 17 July 2026 an article titled "China's Xi Jinping Launches New AI Alliance: What Is It?"

Beijing is casting itself as a leader of the global AI order, challenging the position of the United States.  China announced last week a coalition of 29 nations called the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) with a headquarters in Shanghai.  Founding members include South Africa and Senegal.

In the meantime, Washington is retreating from global cyber and AI norms-setting processes and withdrawing its financial backing for cyber diplomacy more broadly.

The Decline of Diplomacy in the United States

 USA Today published on 19 July 2026 an opinion piece titled "Reduction in US State Department Staff Was Purge in Diplomacy" by Elizabeth "Liz" Colton.

The Trump administration's dismissal of diplomacy and purge of the State Department have resulted in the predictable negative impact on US foreign policy.  

Youth and Social Media Challenge Authority in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray's Youth Are Breaking the TPLF's Narrative Monopoly" by Asmelash Yohannes Teklu.

The rise of social media in Tigray region of Ethiopia is challenging the Tigray People's Liberation Front's control of information.  Young Tigrayans are rejecting attempts to drag Tigray into another destructive conflict.  They are confronting the TPLF in ways that would have been unimaginable a decade ago.

Fall of City in Central Sudan Could Result in Partition of Country

 World Politics Review published on 13 July 2026 an article titled "Sudan Could Be Headed for De Facto Partition" by Mohamed Wad Al-Sak.  

If the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces take control of El Obeid in central Sudan from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), it could result in a de facto partition of the country.  El Obed is the SAF's last command center in central Sudan and the linchpin of its western supply corridor.

China Facing African Mineral Export Controls

 Semafor published on 17 July 2026 an article titled "Africa's Mineral Export Bans Are Only the Opening Bid" by Yinka Adegoke.

China controls about 72 percent of global critical minerals processing capacity, giving it more leverage than the countries that produce the ore.

This has propelled a wave of resource nationalism in Africa as governments try to move up the value chain.  The DRC, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Gabon are tightening controls on the export of raw minerals in order to force more value addition at home.  

Urgent Diplomacy Needed to Calm Down Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "As the Horn of Africa Nears Boiling Point, Time for Urgent Diplomacy" by Alan Boswell. 

Given the uncertainty about Washington's level of commitment to bring peace to the Horn of Africa, additional Gulf States, the European Union, the United Nations, Norway, and the United Kingdom should step up their engagement.  

The US Role in Artificial Intelligence and African Mining

 The Atlantic Council published on 16 July 2026 a report titled "Artificial Intelligence and the Future of African Mining" by Anthony Carroll and Jef Karel Caers.

Colonial-era maps and infrastructure hinder access to the roughly 30 percent of global critical minerals in Africa.  AI-powered mining and mapping tools could help expedite discovery, reduce drilling time, and modernize operations.

The United States should develop "smart mining" partnerships with African countries that advance US security objectives while providing long-term dividends for African nations.  

Somalis Concerned about Future of Federalism in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 18 July 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's National Dialogue Could Unravel the Federal Bargain" by Muktar Ismail.  

On 15 July, Ethiopia's long awaited National Dialogue Conference opened in Addis Ababa with over 4,000 participants from around the nation.  

The author argues that many Somalis in Ethiopia view the Conference not as an attempt to achieve national reconciliation but an attempt to revise Ethiopia's federalist form of government, which remains central to Somali preferences.  

Iran War Intensifies US-China Competition in Africa

 The Middle East Council on Global Affairs, a policy research institution based in Doha, Qatar, published on 16 July 2026 a commentary titled "Iran War Intensifies U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa" by Mustapha Boudoumi.

Disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted the strategic importance of African choke points such as the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb.  The situation in Iran has put increasing focus on China-US competition for critical minerals in Africa.  

China-South Africa Supply Chain Issues

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Beyond the Supply Chain: South Africa's China Dilemma" by Raghvendra Kumar.

The question facing South Africa is whether China's evolving supply chain diplomacy is designed to support Pretoria's fair and equitable participation or to reinforce Beijing's own geoeconomic priorities.  South Africa is China's largest trading partner in Africa, but it runs a large trade deficit with Beijing.  

The author concludes that South Africa's relationship with China will be successful only if Pretoria retains control over its critical infrastructure, strategic industries, and foreign policy choices.  

Drones Are Becoming Weapon of Choice in African Conflicts

 Foreign Affairs published on 26 June 2026 an article titled "Who Is Winning Africa's Drone Wars?" by Nate Allen and Rida Lyammouri.

Inexpensive drones are fast becoming the weapon of choice in African conflicts.  They are being deployed by both governments and insurgent groups.  China is now Africa's largest supplier of drones, accounting for a quarter of those procured.

Foreign drones have turned African conflicts such as the civil war in Sudan into destabilizing proxy wars.  At least eleven African countries now produce drones including Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Morocco.

Picking Up the Pieces at the US State Department

 The Federal News Network published on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Laid-off Federal Employees Spotlight Impacts of State Dept. RIF" by Drew Friedman.

The State Department laid off nearly 1,350, mostly civil service, staff and DOGE fired almost all USAID personnel and abolished the organization, moving a small number of USAID employees to the State Department.  The State Department is now scrambling to figure out how to cope with issues such as Ebola in Africa.  

Somali States Align Against Mogadishu

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Puntland Standoff with the Federal Government of Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Aaryaman Shah.

Ties between the Somali government in Mogadishu and Puntland state continue to deteriorate as Mogadishu implements its constitutional and electoral agenda.  The national Somali Future Council (SFC) opposition coalition, which includes Puntland and Jubaland states and leading Somali opposition figures, has threatened to hold parallel elections and establish new government structures if Mogadishu continues to implement its agenda.