Sudan: Status of Fighting, External Support, and Peace Process

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 30 October 2026 a 43-minute podcast titled "The UAE in Sudan" with Richard Atwood, Alan Boswell, and Shewit Woldemichael.

The ICG staff discussed shifting front lines, how external supply of military equipment is helping the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sustain its campaign, and the growing risk of regional spillover.  They examine how the UAE's support for the RSF and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkiye's backing for the Sudan Armed Forces have left both sides with little incentive to compromise, complicating efforts to end the war.  They also assess why US-led ceasefire efforts have stalled and what a negotiated settlement might require.  

Africa, China, and the Green Revolution

 The South African Institute for International Affairs published on 23 October 2026 an analysis titled "Africa's Industrial Moment: Strategic Agency, China and the Green Transition" by Roli Asthana.

This policy paper urges that African nations, rather than compete directly with China, should identify specific components of clean energy manufacturing where they can develop competitive capabilities and negotiate with Chinese firms and other external investors to locate manufacturing, assembly, supplier development, and associated capabilities within African countries.  

A Visit to Eritrea

 The International Crisis Group posted on 30 October 2026 a 38-minute podcast titled "The View from Eritrea" with Alan Boswell and Giulia Paravicini, Reuters senior correspondent.

Giulia Paravicini offers her impressions of life in Eritrea following a recent 10-day visit to Asmara.  She noted the limited access by Eritreans to the internet and how little the city has changed over the years.

Eritrean officials made clear that they are not an existential threat to Ethiopia and have no interest in toppling the Abiy Ahmed government.  They said no channels of communication are open with the Ethiopian government.  

Eritrea believes Ethiopia is threatening Eritrean sovereignty by seeking access to the sea and implying that could include militarily taking the port of Assab. Eritrean officials denied training and arming Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) forces but acknowledged they are in contact with them.

Paravicini concluded that it appears Eritrea did help organize the anti-government coalition groups in Ethiopia.  At the beginning of the most recent conflict in Tigray Region, Eritrean forces apparently entered Ethiopia in support of the TPLF but subsequently retreated to Eritrea.  Asmara denied that its forces entered Ethiopia.  Global diplomacy was probably instrumental in preventing another war between Ethiopia and Eritrea and any effort by Ethiopia to seize Assab.

Eritrean officials had no interest in discussing relations with the Gulf States or the ongoing conflict in neighboring Sudan.  They did underscore close ties with Egypt and Cairo's support for Eritrea.  They also said they are ready to improve ties with any country, including the United States.

Update on Fighting in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 30 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo and Alexander Brown.

This update covers the fighting in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia Regions from 27 October through 30 October.  It also reports that Russia has agreed to deliver 12 fighter jets to the Ethiopian National Defense Forces.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab Attack in South West State

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 29 October 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Ziv Zellars.

Al-Shabaab reportedly inflicted heavy losses on Somali National Army forces in South West State.  Al- Shabaab used attack drones acquired from the Houthis in Yemen during the fighting.  Al-Shabaab is taking advantage of tension between the central government in Mogadishu and opposition elements in South West State, who may have aligned with al-Shabaab.

Solomonic Decision by Angola and Tanzania Skirts Great Power Competition

 West Africa Weekly published on 30 October 2026 an article titled "Tanzania and Angola Agree to Link Atlantic and Indian Ocean Rail Corridors."

Tanzania and Angola have agreed to link Angola's Benguela railway that connects to the Atlantic Ocean with the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA) that connects to the Indian Ocean.  China originally built and continues to support TAZARA while the United States and European Union support the Lobito Corridor project in Angola, the DRC, and Zambia.

This decision by Angola and Tanzania effectively links the competing Western and Chinese railway projects into a single network that does not force the African countries to choose between the West and China.

Russia Proposes Floating Nuclear Power Plants for Coastal Africa

 Semafor published on 30 October 2026 an article titled "Russia Steps Up African Nuclear Push" by Ruben Nyanguila.

At the recently completed Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow Russia offered to supply floating nuclear power plants to coastal African countries.  Russia's state-owned energy company Rosatom is in advanced talks with Egypt, Togo, Namibia, and Tanzania.  Russia would retain control of the vessels and handle their maintenance and refueling.   The article did not mention payment terms.

Somaliland Arrests Journalist

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 28 October 2026 a press release titled "Somaliland Detains Journalist without Charge after Interviewing Presidential Aspirant."

Somaliland authorities arrested a Horn Cable TV journalist after he interviewed an aspirant for president in the 2027 national elections.  The journalist has been held without charge since 22 October.  

Mozambique Seeks More Debt Relief after China Eases Repayment Terms

 Ecofin Agency published on 29 October 2026 an article titled "Mozambique Seeks More Debt Relief after China Agrees to Ease Repayment Terms" by Flacre E. Kakpo.

China is Mozambique's largest bilateral creditor, accounting for $1.28 billion of its external debt or about 15 percent of the total.  The International Monetary Fund considers Mozambique's debt trajectory unsustainable without fiscal reforms.

China recently signed an agreement with Mozambique to change the repayment schedule but not to cancel any debt.  This step will not resolve Mozambique's debt problems.  

China-Morocco Academic Cooperation

 Edge News posted on 29 October 2026 an article titled "Morocco and China Inaugurate North Africa's First China-Africa Research Center."

Morocco and China inaugurated North Africa's first China-Africa Research Center at the National School of Administration in Rabat.  The partnership will support scientific research and knowledge sharing through basic and applied studies.  Both institutions will organize executive training programs in Morocco and China.  This is another step in combining Morocco-China academic collaboration with practical training and governance research.

Asking Hard Questions at the Russia-Africa Summit

 Nigeria's Vanguard published on 27 October 2026 an article titled "Nigeria Must Ask Russia Hard Questions" by Iyabo Aina.

As African leaders gather in Moscow for the third Russia-Africa Summit, the author urges that Nigeria ask why young Nigerians are being lured through deception to Russia to fight against Ukraine.  Another Russian program is attracting African women to Russia to assemble Iranian-designed attack drones for use against Ukrainians.  

Update on Fighting in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 27 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review."

This account covers military action in Tigray and Amhara Regions from 23-27 October.  It also reports that Russia has offered to mediate between Ethiopia and Eritrea while China is sending a special envoy to the region to promote dialogue and deescalation.  

Threat to Red Sea Undersea Cables

 The Hudson Institute published on 28 October 2026 an analysis titled "Iran's Maritime Threat and the Conflict in the Red Sea" by Can Kasapoglu.

Working with its Houthi allies in Yemen, Iran may be able to damage undersea cables that pass through the Red Sea, which carry about 90 percent of the Europe-Asia capacity.  Multiple cuts in the cables could disrupt internet services, E-commerce, finance, and cloud computing across the globe.

Russia Steps Up Recruitment of Africans for Ukraine War

 The Insider posted on 26 October 2026 an article titled "Russia Expands War Recruitment in Africa, with Enlistment in Burundi Up 23-fold."

Russia has stepped up its recruitment of Africans to fight in its war against Ukraine.  After Kenya and South Africa tried to end Russian recruitment, Moscow turned to Burundi, Zimbabwe, Sierra Leone, and Madagascar, among others.  Ukraine reports that Russia has recruited 5,400 Africans from 43 countries to serve as mercenaries with Russian forces.

Togo Looks to China

 The Diplomat published on 27 October 2026 an article titled "Togo's China Pivot: Building a Strategic Gateway to the Sahel" by Ovigwe Eguegu.

Following a visit to China by its president, Togo looks to expand ties with China and serve as a gateway for landlocked Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.  The article cites the expansion of Togo's exports to China from $15 MILLION in 2024 to $ 18 MILLION in 2025.  

Comment:  The article failed to note that China's exports to Togo in 2025 totaled more than $4 BILLION.  It is important to put these bilateral relationships in perspective.  

The Future of US Diplomacy and the Foreign Service

 The American Foreign Service Association posted on 26 October 2026 a one-hour podcast titled "Navigating Diplomacy in the Upside Down" with Nicholas Burns, retired Foreign Service Officer and ambassador to China during the Biden administration.  

This is a discussion with Ambassador Burns on diplomacy, foreign policy, the State Department under Republican and Democratic administrations, and the future of the U.S. Foreign Service.  

China's Zero Tariff Policy Will Not Solve Ghana's Export Challenges

 Discovery Alert posted on 18 October 2026 an article titled "Ghana's Export Strategy Needs More than China's Zero Tariffs" by Muflih Hidayat.

China's recent zero tariff policy for African countries removes only a price barrier.  Rules of origin, standards, processing capacity, and financing will limit the ability of Ghana to export substantially more goods to China.

Sierra Leone Launches Chinese-backed Shipping Company

 The Maritime Telegraph published on 26 October 2026 an article titled "Sierra Leone Launches Chinese-backed Shipping Company with 50-Vessel Target."

Sierra Leone has launched the new Sierra Leone Ocean Shipping Company in partnership with China's Zhejiang Xiehai Group, which holds a 70 percent stake in the joint venture.  The state-owned Sierra Leone National Shipping Agency owns the remaining 30 percent.  The company plans to build a fleet of 50 vessels.

The Limitations of African Military Drone Warfare

 Unmanned Africa, a digital platform and defense intelligence blog, published on 14 September 2026 an analysis titled "Are Unmanned Systems a New Frontier of CT and COIN Operations in Africa?"

This is an insightful analysis of the use of military drones in Africa so far and their limitations unless African militaries improve the strategies for their employment and counter use.  

While unmanned aerial systems have given African militaries greater lethality and stronger intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support, their employment has not meaningfully changed the trajectory of the continent's conflict zones.  

For African militaries, the problem is not simply the acquisition of new technologies, but the failure to translate them into effective military capabilities and tactical success at the theatre level.  African militaries must rethink how unmanned systems are integrated into broader force structures and operations.

African militaries have given insufficient attention to counter-drone capabilities.  Their procurement record suggests that unmanned system acquisition remains weighted towards offensive platforms, with less emphasis on capabilities for detecting, tracking, jamming, and intercepting small, low-flying armed commercial-off-the-shelf systems.

The analysis concludes that the drone revolution will not transform counterterrorism and counter-insurgency operations in Africa.  Drones and other unmanned systems can provide important operational advantages, but their contribution to decisive outcomes depends on how effectively they are integrated into the wider force.

China Leads Drone Transfers to Africa

 Military Africa posted in 2026 a major report titled "Drone Procurement in Africa."

The report covers drone (both armed and unarmed) procurement in Africa from 2010 until 2026.  The African countries procuring the most drones of all types and uses during this period were Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Algeria, and Libya LNA.  Those procuring the most armed drones were Morocco (102), Egypt (92), Algeria (86), Nigeria (71), Libya LNA (40), and Ethiopia (36).  

China was the largest supplier with 587 drones shipped to 20 African countries, most of them sent after 2020 to Egypt, Libya LNA, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Algeria.

Israel was the second largest source with 325 drones to 12 African countries, most of them to Morocco, Ethiopia, Uganda, Zambia, and Libya GNA.

Turkey was third largest supplier with 291 drones to 11 African countries, including both sides of conflict in Libya and Ethiopia.

The United States supplied 247 drones to Africa during this period but significantly reduced deliveries after 2020.  

Iran provided 37 drones almost exclusively to conflict zones in Sudan, Libya LNA, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.  Russia supplied 27 drones to Mali, Libya LNA, and Ethiopia.

Sudan Shifts to Drone Warfare

 Aljazeera published on 22 October 2026 an article titled "How Sudan's Shift to Drone Warfare Is Fuelling a Civilian Crisis."

Drone attacks by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the Sudan Armed Forces have killed more than 160 people in recent days.  Both sides use drones in a deliberate shift towards long-range preemptive operations.  Both sides also accuse the other of deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure.  The supply chain for the drones originates in Belarus, Iran, China, Russia, Sudan, and Türkiye.

Fixing Sanctions on Sudan

 African Arguments published on 20 October 2026 an article titled "Why Sanctions Are Not Stifling Sudan's War Economy and What We Can Do About It" by Suliman Baldo.

While sanctions on Sudan have had some impact, more often the belligerent parties in the country have found ways to maneuver around them.

The author identifies five measures to fix sanctions.  Pay more attention to subsidiaries and joint ventures established to work around sanctions. Target the entire support ecosystems around the primary bad actors.  Expand the embargo on Darfur to all of Sudan.  Engage countries such as Kenya, Egypt, and the UAE to ensure the logistic hubs facilitating evasion are eliminated.  Unwind overcompliance by banks in areas that are not targeted by sanctions to facilitate access by those in need of assistance.

Ethiopia: Developments in Tigray Region

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 23 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review."  

This update covers the period 20-23 October and discusses the fighting in Tigray and Benishangul-Gumuz Regions and recent regional and international engagement.

Africa-China Climate Cooperation

 The Diplomat published on 23 October 2026 an article titled "The Next Chapter of Africa-China Climate Cooperation" by Yike Fu.

The author says China is shifting from contractor-led cooperation in Africa toward longer-term investment partnerships.  Africa-China climate cooperation is increasingly extending beyond individual renewable energy projects toward the development of integrated green industrial value chains.  Climate cooperation is also increasingly being built through and reinforcing African initiatives and institutions.

China and Djibouti Concerned about Red Sea Shipping but Leave Action to Others

 The Diplomat published on 23 October 2026 an article titled "China, Djibouti Express 'Serious Concern' Over Threats to Red Sea Shipping" by Shannon Tiezzi.

During a visit to Beijing, the Djiboutian foreign minister met with his Chinese counterpart.  They issued a joint communique on the threat to shipping in the Red Sea.  It made clear that the onus is on other countries to solve the problem.  Neither China nor Djibouti plans to take any action.