South African Exports to China After the Tariff Elimination: Less Than Meets the Eye

 Thierry Pairault posted on 5 November 2026 a brief analysis titled "Ambassador Wu Peng's Little Sums."

China's ambassador to South Africa was extolling the increase in South African exports to China following the elimination of Beijing's tariffs on 1 May 2026.  While there has been a modest increase, it is smaller than it appears.  The ambassador's calculations are in US dollars and fail to take into account the depreciation of the US dollar against the South African rand.

In the case of the increase in South African agricultural exports to China, the currency devaluation accounts for more than 30 percent of the growth in exports.  In addition, the export of chrome ore, which makes up 30 percent of South African exports to China in 2026, have been exempt from China's tariffs since 2001 and have nothing to do with the expanded 1 May tariff exemption.

For the French version of this piece, see "Les petits calculs de l'ambassadeur Wu Peng."

An Analysis of Ethiopian-Eritrean Escalation

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 2 November 2026 an analysis titled "The Ethiopian-Eritrean Escalation: Motives, Scenarios, and Regional Implications."

This paper examines the drivers and strategic dimensions of the Ethiopian-Eritrean escalation.  It explores potential scenarios and assesses their implications for both countries and the wider region.

It argues that Ethiopia's pursuit of access to the sea conflicts with Eritrea's concerns over sovereignty and territorial integrity, making the question of maritime access a central driver of the ongoing crisis.

Ethiopian Media Authorities Crack Down on The Reporter

The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 5 November 2026 a news release titled "Ethiopia Suspends The Reporter Indefinitely in Escalating Assault on Independent Media."

The Committee to Protect Journalists calls on Ethiopian authorities to lift the indefinite suspension of The Reporter, one of the country's oldest independent newspapers.  The Ethiopian Media Authority accused The Reporter of publishing distorted and unbalanced information.  It did not cite any specific report to substantiate its charges.

Comment: Although this matter will probably not result in criticism by the Trump administration, the arrival in early January of a Democratically controlled House of Representatives and Senate may well result in criticism by individual members of Congress and committees that follow developments in Ethiopia.

Violence at Chinese Mine in Zimbabwe

 Nehanda Radio posted on 4 November 2026 an article titled "One Dead, Three Injured as Five Excavators Burn at Shurugwi Mine Linked to Mnangagwa's Son."

One person died and three others were injured during violent clashes on 2 November between artisanal miners and security personnel at a Chinese-owned mine in Zimbabwe.  The son of Zimbabwe's president is a partner with Chinese investors in the mine.

Sudan and Ethiopia: Tit-for-Tat Consulate Closures

Aljazeera published on 4 November 2026 an article titled "Sudan, Ethiopia Shut Each Other's Consulates in Tit-for-Tat Move." 

Ethiopia shut down and expelled diplomats from Sudan's consulate near the Sudanese border in an area where Khartoum accuses Ethiopia of supporting Sudan's dissident paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  In response, Sudan shut down and expelled Ethiopian diplomats from a consulate near the Ethiopian border where Addis Ababa accuses Sudan of supporting rebel movements in Tigray Region.  

Foreign Influence in Africa: Focus on Russia

 Intellinews published on 2 November 2026 an article titled "Russia's Influence in Africa Grows by a Third in a Decade but Stays a Quarter of China's" by Ben Aris.  

The Pardee Institute at the University of Denver maintains a "Bilateral Influence Capacity index." which measures influence on the basis of trade ties, diplomatic connections, security links, and patterns of dependence.

In 2024, China led with an influence capacity score in Africa of 11.4 percent, followed by France at 6.8 percent, the United States at 6.6 percent, UAE at 4.8 percent, Russia at 2.8 percent, and Turkey at 1.5 percent.  Russia rose from 2.2 percent in 2015 and 1 percent in 1995.

Ethiopian-American Pleads Guilty to Passing Classified Information

 The BBC posted on 4 November 2026 an article titled "US Contractor Gave Ethiopia Secrets to Help Kill Tigray Fighters" by Wycliffe Muia.  

An Ethiopian-born American citizen has pleaded guilty to passing highly classified intelligence to Ethiopia to help target and kill Tigrayan fighters during the 2020-2022 Tigray war.  He faces up to 20 years in prison under a plea agreement.  He worked as an IT administrator contractor at the State Department, Justice Department, and the National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for US intelligence satellites.

The Upsurge in Military Drone Strikes in Africa

 The Africa Center for Security Studies published on 28 October 2026 a major study titled "Lessons from Africa's Drone Wars" by Nate Allen.

Africa experienced an upsurge in drone strikes during the period 2022-2026.  Most of the strikes took place in Mali, Sudan, Ethiopia, DRC, and Somalia.  The major providers of long endurance drones to Africa are Turkey, China, and Israel.  The largest recipients of long endurance drones are Algeria, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Morocco, Egypt, and Libya.

Update on Situation in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 3 November 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo and Alexander Brown.

This update covers military and regional developments in Ethiopia from 30 October through 3 November.  The focus is on Amhara and Tigray Regions and especially the Ethiopia-Eritrea border area.

The Case for Ethiopian Access to the Red Sea

 Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs posted on 2 November 2026 a paper titled "A Civilizational Case for Maritime Access.  Perspectives from the 12th Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa" by Miftah Mohammed Kemal.

Ethiopia considers access to the sea an existential issue.  This document explains why Ethiopia holds this position.  At the same time, its leadership says it will pursue maritime access "through dialogue and mutual benefit."

China Trains Tanzanian Media Personnel

 Xinhua published on 2 November 2026 an article titled "Chinese Experts Train Tanzanian Media Professionals in AI Applications." 

China's National Radio and Television Administration held a two-day program in Dar es Salaam for 30 Tanzanian media professionals to strengthen digital skills, improve content production, explore new business opportunities, generate AI in media production, and promote joint storytelling between China and Africa.

Comment:  This is part of a long-standing and comprehensive Chinese soft power program to cultivate African media personnel, introduce Chinese equipment, and promote Chinese standards and models. 

What Does Russia Hope to Achieve in Africa?

 Deutsche Welle published on 28 October 2026 an article titled "Russia in Africa: What Does the Kremlin Hope to Achieve?" by Oleg Loginov.

Russia has important economic ties with Egypt but with few other African countries.  Moscow is preparing to compete in the critical minerals sector and Russian mercenaries support African regimes in several Sahel countries.  Russia remains a major supplier of arms to African countries and is an important source of fertilizer and grains.

Ugandan Peacekeeping Troops Begin Departure from Somalia

 Deutsch Welle published on 2 November 2026 an article titled "Uganda Begins Withdrawing Troops from Somalia after Two Decades" by Natalie Muller.

Uganda was the first country to send troops to Somalia as part of an African Union peacekeeping force set up in 2007 to support the Somali government's campaign against al-Shabab Islamist militants.  Uganda has now begun to pull its 6,500 forces out of Somalia.

Chinese Companies End Kenyan Rare Earth Competition with Western Companies

 Business Insider Africa published on 2 November 2026 an article titled "Two Chinese Mining Firms Pull Out of Kenya's Rare Earth and Niobium Extraction Race as Three American Companies Stand Their Ground among Five Remaining Bidders" by Olamilekan Okebiorun.

Two major Chinese companies have exited the bidding process for Kenya's Mrima Hill critical minerals deposit.  They did not give a reason for their decision.  Three of the five remaining contenders are US-linked, with the others being an Australian consortium and a Kenyan-British joint venture.  

Former Southern Sudanese Leader Joseph Lagu Dies

 The New York Times published on 1 November 2026 an obituary titled "Joseph Lagu, Who Led Independence Movement in Southern Sudan, Has Died" by Clay Risen.

Joseph Lagu, leader of the Southern Sudanese independence movement, Anya Nya, and second vice president in the Sudan government from 1982-1985, died in Juba at age 94.  He served in numerous other capacities, including as Sudan's ambassador to the United Nations from 1990-1992.

Comment:  While serving as the deputy chief of mission at the American embassy in Khartoum, I met on several occasions with then second Vice President Lagu in the Gaafar Nimeiry government.  Lagu was accessible, decent, and committed to the cause of Southern Sudanese independence.  He was also highly frustrated by his lack of influence in the Nimeiry government.  

Chinese Retail Traders and Miners Encounter Opposition in Nigeria

 African Arguments published on 16 October 2026 an article titled "Nigeria Has Not Decided How to Regulate Chinese Businesses. Who Will Decide?" by Francis Annagu, freelance journalist.  

Nigerian retail traders increasingly want Chinese traders out of the business, alleging they are abusing their permits.  There are similar allegations about Chinese in the mining sector.  The author says Nigerian politicians are failing to take action on the problems.  

China Transfers Increasingly Sophisticated Arms to Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 1 November 2026 an article titled "From Rifles to Radar: China Upgrades Its Africa Arms Trade as Russia and the West Retreat" by Jevans Nyabiage.

China is transferring increasingly sophisticated military equipment to Africa as it improves quality, remains price competitive, and sells to almost any country so long as it is not facing United Nations' sanctions.  China's major competition is Russia, which is facing supply issues because of its war against Ukraine. 

Sudan: Status of Fighting, External Support, and Peace Process

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 30 October 2026 a 43-minute podcast titled "The UAE in Sudan" with Richard Atwood, Alan Boswell, and Shewit Woldemichael.

The ICG staff discussed shifting front lines, how external supply of military equipment is helping the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sustain its campaign, and the growing risk of regional spillover.  They examine how the UAE's support for the RSF and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkiye's backing for the Sudan Armed Forces have left both sides with little incentive to compromise, complicating efforts to end the war.  They also assess why US-led ceasefire efforts have stalled and what a negotiated settlement might require.  

Africa, China, and the Green Revolution

 The South African Institute for International Affairs published on 23 October 2026 an analysis titled "Africa's Industrial Moment: Strategic Agency, China and the Green Transition" by Roli Asthana.

This policy paper urges that African nations, rather than compete directly with China, should identify specific components of clean energy manufacturing where they can develop competitive capabilities and negotiate with Chinese firms and other external investors to locate manufacturing, assembly, supplier development, and associated capabilities within African countries.  

A Visit to Eritrea

 The International Crisis Group posted on 30 October 2026 a 38-minute podcast titled "The View from Eritrea" with Alan Boswell and Giulia Paravicini, Reuters senior correspondent.

Giulia Paravicini offers her impressions of life in Eritrea following a recent 10-day visit to Asmara.  She noted the limited access by Eritreans to the internet and how little the city has changed over the years.

Eritrean officials made clear that they are not an existential threat to Ethiopia and have no interest in toppling the Abiy Ahmed government.  They said no channels of communication are open with the Ethiopian government.  

Eritrea believes Ethiopia is threatening Eritrean sovereignty by seeking access to the sea and implying that could include militarily taking the port of Assab. Eritrean officials denied training and arming Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) forces but acknowledged they are in contact with them.

Paravicini concluded that it appears Eritrea did help organize the anti-government coalition groups in Ethiopia.  At the beginning of the most recent conflict in Tigray Region, Eritrean forces apparently entered Ethiopia in support of the TPLF but subsequently retreated to Eritrea.  Asmara denied that its forces entered Ethiopia.  Global diplomacy was probably instrumental in preventing another war between Ethiopia and Eritrea and any effort by Ethiopia to seize Assab.

Eritrean officials had no interest in discussing relations with the Gulf States or the ongoing conflict in neighboring Sudan.  They did underscore close ties with Egypt and Cairo's support for Eritrea.  They also said they are ready to improve ties with any country, including the United States.

Update on Fighting in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 30 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo and Alexander Brown.

This update covers the fighting in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia Regions from 27 October through 30 October.  It also reports that Russia has agreed to deliver 12 fighter jets to the Ethiopian National Defense Forces.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab Attack in South West State

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 29 October 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Ziv Zellars.

Al-Shabaab reportedly inflicted heavy losses on Somali National Army forces in South West State.  Al- Shabaab used attack drones acquired from the Houthis in Yemen during the fighting.  Al-Shabaab is taking advantage of tension between the central government in Mogadishu and opposition elements in South West State, who may have aligned with al-Shabaab.

Solomonic Decision by Angola and Tanzania Skirts Great Power Competition

 West Africa Weekly published on 30 October 2026 an article titled "Tanzania and Angola Agree to Link Atlantic and Indian Ocean Rail Corridors."

Tanzania and Angola have agreed to link Angola's Benguela railway that connects to the Atlantic Ocean with the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA) that connects to the Indian Ocean.  China originally built and continues to support TAZARA while the United States and European Union support the Lobito Corridor project in Angola, the DRC, and Zambia.

This decision by Angola and Tanzania effectively links the competing Western and Chinese railway projects into a single network that does not force the African countries to choose between the West and China.

Russia Proposes Floating Nuclear Power Plants for Coastal Africa

 Semafor published on 30 October 2026 an article titled "Russia Steps Up African Nuclear Push" by Ruben Nyanguila.

At the recently completed Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow Russia offered to supply floating nuclear power plants to coastal African countries.  Russia's state-owned energy company Rosatom is in advanced talks with Egypt, Togo, Namibia, and Tanzania.  Russia would retain control of the vessels and handle their maintenance and refueling.   The article did not mention payment terms.

Somaliland Arrests Journalist

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 28 October 2026 a press release titled "Somaliland Detains Journalist without Charge after Interviewing Presidential Aspirant."

Somaliland authorities arrested a Horn Cable TV journalist after he interviewed an aspirant for president in the 2027 national elections.  The journalist has been held without charge since 22 October.