Ethiopia's Economy Moves from China Model to Africa's Free Agent

 Forbes published on 1 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia: From China's Star Pupil to Africa's Free Agent" by Wesley Alexander Hill.

For years, China found an eager partner in Meles Zenawi's Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, which ruled Ethiopia and embraced elements of China's development model.  It delivered impressive economic growth for many years, but it also contained structural weaknesses that Beijing's own system largely avoided.  

The rise of Abiy Ahmed marked the end of this era.  Ethiopia's current economic strategy represents one of Africa's most consequential experiments in macroeconomic liberalization.

Geopolitical Implications of Rapprochement Between Ethiopia and Somaliland

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 1 July 2026 a paper titled "Between Maritime Access and Recognition: Geopolitical Implications of Rapprochement Between Ethiopia and Somaliland."

The prospect of landlocked Ethiopia securing maritime access through Somaliland highlights the intersection of Addis Ababa's structural need for a maritime outlet and Hargeisa's ambition to strengthen its legitimacy and bargaining power--without pressing for immediate formal recognition.

The most likely scenario in the foreseeable future is the gradual expansion of economic and logistical cooperation between Ethiopia and Somaliland, without sovereign arrangements or formal recognition.  While the option of recognition or sovereign maritime privileges remains possible, it is less likely and would require deeper regional and international transformations.  

Amnesty International's Massive Report on Atrocities in Sudan's North Darfur

 Amnesty International published on 1 July 2026 a report titled "City Under Seige, Children Under Fire: Rapid Support Forces' Crimes Against Humanity in North Darfur."

This is a 202-page report on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) atrocities in North Darfur based on 247 interviews, including 208 with survivors of the RSF seizure of El Fasher, capital of North Darfur.

US Imposes New Sanctions on Warring Parties in Sudan

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 July 2026 an article titled "US Sanctions RSF and SAF" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The United States has imposed additional sanctions on parties backing the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.  These sanctions are part of a long list of US sanctions dating back to 2023.

Comment:  Previous US sanctions on the warring parties in Sudan have had no impact on the fighting and these new sanctions will simply be more of the same.

US-China Competition in the Middle East and North Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 1 July 2026 an analysis titled "In the Middle East and North Africa, America and China Converge More Than They Diverge" by Amr Hamzawy and Kathryn Selfe.

Competition between the United States and China in the Middle East and North Africa is less a threat and more an opportunity.  The region has important geostrategic significance for both countries.  As great power competition develops globally, Washington and Beijing's positions in the region are increasingly converging.  

The United States and China are united by their primary interest in maintaining free trade in the region.  For both countries, a stable, peace-driven order is key.  Washington is also driven by interest in Israel's security; Beijing is similarly driven by China's need for oil and liquid natural gas.  These two interests are compatible and underscore the need for peace and stability in the region.  

Podcast of Somaliland's Culture and History

 Higher Education Today posted about a month ago a 29-minute podcast titled "Culture and History of Somaliland" hosted by Steven Roy Goodman with Jama Musa Jama, Hargeisa Cultural Centre, and Lee Cassanelli, professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania.  

This is a positive account filmed in Hargeisa of Somaliland's history and culture, interspersed with video clips of the country.  

Ethiopia Signs Debt Deal with Private Lenders

 Foreign Policy published on 1 July 2026 an article titled "What to Know About Ethiopia's Debt Breakthrough" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.

A year ago, Ethiopia reached a final agreement on restructuring $8.4 billion of bilateral loans, with $3.5 billion in debt relief.  But a deal on the $1 billion bond held by private lenders proved to be more elusive.  Under a recent deal, the bondholders have agreed to reduce the $1 billion debt to $880 million, repaid in installments by 2029.

Changing Geopolitics in the Horn of Africa

 The Rift Valley Institute recently published a report titled "The New Geopolitics of Eastern Africa."

The British Institute of Eastern Africa, Chatham House, and the Rift Valley Institute convened a group of experts to discuss the ongoing transformation of geopolitics in the Horn of Africa.  This paper summarizes their conclusions, noting that the region is experiencing profound multi-decade shifts in its relationship with the wider world.  

China Embeds Itself in Africa's Maritime Networks

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 10 June 2026 a paper titled "Beyond Ports: China Embeds Itself in Africa's Maritime Networks" by Paul Nantulya.  

China is Africa's largest trade partner, major financer and builder of African ports, and has embedded itself in other aspects of the continent's maritime networks.

China's growing role in training, governance, and data systems could entrench long-term influence over Africa's institutions, potentially normalizing Chinese standards and creating structural dependencies on Chinese-built physical and digital infrastructure.  This can limit Africa's domestic competition, divert scarce revenue, introduce data and security concerns, and reduce policy flexibility and bargaining power.

USAID Dismantlement Has Resulted in Deaths

 The New York Times published on 1 July 2026 a commentary titled "U.S.A.I.D. Cuts Killed People.  That's the Truth" by Nicholas Kristof.  

Elon Musk, who at the beginning of the Trump administration ran DOGE, the organization that dismantled the US Agency for International Development, insists "there is not even a single dead child" as a result of the actions by DOGE.  

Nicholas Kristof, who has met with family members in Africa of dead children, begs to differ.  In addition, studies by university researchers and by Lancet, a British medical journal, estimate that deaths due to USAID financial cuts are in the hundreds of thousands.   

Status of the UN Mission in South Sudan

 The Stimson Center published on 24 June 2026 a report titled "The UN Mission in South Sudan in the Context of Changing Security and Regional Dynamics."

The report concludes that the combined effects of a fragile peace process, heightened political tensions, economic deterioration, the spillover of conflict from Sudan, the emerging Ebola crisis in the neighboring DRC, and growing humanitarian pressures have created a volatile environment in South Sudan.

South Sudan continues to grapple with unresolved questions surrounding the political transition and the lack of implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), which remains the primary political framework for addressing the conflict and advancing sustainable peace.  

South Africa and China Sign Agreement to Expand Trade

 Further Africa published on 30 June 2026 an article titled "South Africa and China Sign Rules Pact to Unlock Zero-Tariff Trade Opportunities."

South Africa and China signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at converting China's zero-tariff treatment for African exports into practical commercial opportunities for South African businesses.  Because tariff preferences alone do not guarantee market access, the MOU deals with technical regulations, standards, product certification, inspection procedures, and conformity assessment systems.  The agreement signals a broader strategic deepening of South Africa-China trade.

African Sesame Exports and China's Zero Tariff

 Thierry Pairault published on 30 June 2026 an article titled "The African Sesame Industry and the Chinese Tariff Exemption."

China obtains from Africa more than 80 percent of its imported sesame seeds.  Six countries account for 95 percent of African sesame exports to China: Niger, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Mozambique, and Ethiopia.

China's recent zero tariff policy for African countries will primarily benefit Chinese importers-processors rather than African producers.  The tariff advantage is captured at the point of entry into China by companies whose shareholders are Chinese, Singaporean, and Taiwanese.  

Somalia, Al-Shabaab, and the Future

 The International Crisis Group published on 30 June 2026 an analysis titled "New Chapter, Same Stalemate: Somalia's War with Al-Shabaab."

This analysis describes the ebb and flow of al-Shabaab's war with the Somali government since 2022.  It concludes that while Mogadishu faces several big challenges, it retains the military capability, in terms of personnel and resources, to hold the line, provided that external support does not abruptly disappear.

Meanwhile, despite al-Shabaab's pragmatic shifts in its approach to ruling areas under its control, its unpopularity among those it governs remains a roadblock for its attempts to supplant the Somali government.  

With neither side able to defeat the other, the war in Somalia is fundamentally at a stalemate with no end in sight.

China Cancels Tiny Portion of Sudan's Debt

 The Sudan Tribune published a report dated 29 June 2026 titled "China Forgives $50 Million of Sudan's Debt to Ease Economic Strain."

Sudan and China signed on 28 June an agreement to cancel about $50 million in four interest-free loans that China had provided to Sudan.

Comment:  China and Sudan have made much of this debt cancellation.  It is important to put it in perspective.  At the end of 2023, Sudan's total external debt stood at $66.8 billion. According to AIDDATA, a research lab at William & Mary, Sudan's debt to China at the end of 2021 totaled $18 billion. (See page 392 of the AIDDATA report here.)  

While any debt cancellation for Sudan is a welcome development, this particular decision does not even scratch the surface of Sudan's debt problem.  

The Scramble for the Red Sea

 The International Crisis Group posted on 29 June 2026 a 41-minute podcast titled "The Scramble for the Red Sea Is Not Cooling Down" by Alan Boswell with Federico Donelli, University of Trieste and author of a new book on the topic.

The scramble for control in the Red Sea region began during the Cold War and increased in intensity in the 21st century.  There are now many new actors in the Red Sea.  Middle powers have become as significant as major powers.  

Russia has been seeking, so far without success, a military base in the region for years.  China established a military base in Djibouti to protect its interests in the region and to extend global power.  The Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, have become much more engaged in the Red Sea.

The US/Israeli war against Iran has underscored the importance of the Red Sea for international shipping.  The European Union is the one grouping that should be more engaged in the region than it is.  

South Sudan Conflict Flies Under the Radar

 The Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker posted on 12 June 2026 an updated background piece titled "Instability in South Sudan."

Ten million South Sudanese--nearly 84 percent of the population--need humanitarian assistance, as reports of airstrikes on civilian areas, sexual violence, and forced recruitment have escalated since March 2025.  

PLA Navy Destroyer Visits Seychelles

  Global Times published on 27 June 2026 an article titled "Chinese Navy's Destroyer Tangshan Arrives in Seychelles for a Friendly Visit" by Wang Zixuan.

The PLA Navy's guided-missile destroyer Tangshan arrived at Port Victoria in Seychelles on 26 June for a 5-day port call.  The Tangshan was part of the 48th naval task force in the Gulf of Aden that arrived in October 2025.

Chinese Companies Produce Most of Namibia's Uranium

 The Namibian published on 28 June 2026 an article titled "Namibia in Numbers: Namibia's Uranium Output" by Ida Williams.

Namibia produces 12 percent of the world's uranium output and is the third ranking producer after Kazakhstan and Canada.  The two largest mines in Namibia are owned by Chinese companies: the Husab mine by China General Nuclear Power and the Rossing mine by China National Uranium Corporation.  An Australian company owns the third mine, which accounts for less production.  

Generals Fight to Finish in Sudan

 Aljazeera published on 28 June 2026 an article titled "'Digging with a Needle': Generals Stall Peace as Sudan's El-Obeid Burns."

The leaders of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are demonstrating no serious interest in bringing the deadly Sudan conflict to an end. Mediation and a ceasefire seem to be the last thing on their minds as the drone war heats up.   

Eswatini Sticks with Taiwan and Misses Out on China's Zero Tariffs

 African Arguments published on 25 June 2026 a commentary titled "Xi's Zero Tariff Offer to Africa and the Political Boundaries of Eswatini's Exclusion" by Francis Annagu, a freelance journalist.

China made imports from Africa duty free as of May 1 for all countries except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan.  The author suggests Eswatini decided to maintain its relationship with Taiwan because of its long friendship with Taipei that began well before China became a major economic power in Africa.  

Update on Sudan Conflict

 UN News posted on 26 June 2026 an article titled "Sudan: Window Is Closing to Prevent Wider Escalation in El Obeid."

This is a useful update on the situation in Sudan that summarizes the fighting, use of drones, external interference, regional tensions, and status of efforts to mediate an end to the conflict.

US Gets Win Over China in Race for DRC Critical Minerals

 Fox News published on 23 June 2026 an article titled "Trump Gets Major Win against China in African Rare Earth Minerals Race" by Paul Tilsley.

The United States has supported an American company, Virtus Minerals, in developing two major mines producing cobalt and copper in the Democratic Republic of Congo.  This is the Trump administration's first critical minerals (not rare earths as the article asserts) win in the DRC.  

"Russian Houses" in Africa Lure Recruits for Ukraine War

 Euro News posted on 18 June 2026 an article titled "Moscow Uses 'Russian Houses' in Africa to Lure Recruits into War in Ukraine, Investigation Shows" by Sasha Vakulina and Aleksandar Brezar.

Moscow is operating or opening "Russian Houses" in at least 22 African countries as part of its strategy to consolidate its influence on the continent.  The centers screen Soviet and Russian films, often on patriotic themes, and distribute ideologically vetted literature.  They also teach the Russian language and coach young people on how to move to Russia as students or workers.  

Ukraine's military intelligence has done an investigation that identifies Russian Houses as key hubs for recruiting Africans to go to Russia where they eventually end up on the front lines of the war against Ukraine.  Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reports that at least 2,965 citizens from 36 African countries have taken part in combat on Russia's side.  

China Trains Africans on How to Control Small Arms

 The South China Morning Post published on 26 June 2026 an article titled "Can China's Strict Policing Model 'Silence the Guns' in Africa?" by Jevans Nyabiage.

China is training African trainees on ways to get better control of small arms and light weapons (SALW).  The problem is that China's strict domestic policies do not transfer well to Africa where some African governments supply SALW to non-state actors in neighboring countries.  Until this practice ends, China's training will accomplish little.