Israel, Somaliland, and the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 19 February 2026 a 27-minute podcast titled "Israel, Somaliland and the Horn" with Alan Boswell and Asher Lubotzky, Israel-Africa Relations Institute.

Lubotzky commented that Israel is trying to improve relations across Africa.  In eastern Africa, its closest ties are with Ethiopia.  It also has good relations with South Sudan and Kenya.  They are up and down with Uganda and not so good with Eritrea.  Israel is making every effort to remain out of the Sudan conflict.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland was based primarily on its goal to develop a strategic link with a territory that is close to the Houthis in Yemen.  The Houthi issue drove Israel to recognize Somaliland where it can improve its intelligence operations at the southern end of the Red Sea and into Yemen.  The decision had little or nothing to do, as is often alleged, with moving Gazans to Somaliland or the Ethiopia-Egyptian dispute.  

Israel recognizes that Somaliland took a chance by recognizing Israel, which could result in Houthi attacks aimed at Somaliland.  

Can Ethiopia's Strong Growth Rate Continue?

 Foreign Policy published on 18 February 2026 an article titled "What's Behind Ethiopia's Double Digit Growth: And Can Addis Ababa's Boon Last?" by Nosmot Gdabamosi. 

Ethiopia's impressive growth rate is being driven by floating the exchange rate for its currency, the birr, and strong exports of coffee and gold.  But high debt and involvement in Sudan's civil war could reverse the current positive numbers.   

UN Report Suggests Rapid Support Forces Genocide in Sudan

 UN News published on 19 February 2026 an article titled "Sudan: 'Hallmarks of Genocide' Found in El Fasher, UN Investigators Detail Mass Killings and Ethnic Targeting" by Vibhu Mishra.

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) carried out ethnically targeted killings, widespread sexual violence, and enforced disappearance during their late-October takeover of El Fasher in Sudan's Darfur Region.  They committed three underlying acts of genocide, which is the only reasonable inference you can take from the RSF killings.  

Ghanaian Professor Calls for Reassessment of Africa's Relations with China

 The Ghana News Agency posted on 18 February 2026 an article titled "Africa-China Relations Need Critical Review--Prof. Amoah" by Edward Acquah.

Prominent associate professor of political science at the University of Ghana, Lloyd George Adu Amoah, recently gave a key public lecture on China-Africa relations.  Amoah, who has a doctorate from Wuhan University in China, called for a critical reassessment of the relationship. He described current China-Africa relations as "heavy on form and very light on substance."

Amoah identified three phases of China-Africa relations with the last one beginning about 2011 when China became the world's second largest economy.  This phase has been marked by China's "obsession with the maintenance of its new superpower status."  He warned that trade with China may lock Africa into a source for commodities and result in diminished manufacturing opportunities.  

Amoah added Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows constitute less than 5 percent of its global FDI stock and they are concentrated in resource rich countries and sectors such as mining and construction.

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray Poised to Fight

 The International Crisis Group published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa."

A new war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Region of Ethiopia is palpable.  It is gripped by rising tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa, on one side, and the Tigray Region and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, on the other.  Recent developments suggest they are getting ready for conflict.  

Somalia, Climate Change, and IDPs

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in 2025 a study titled "From Risk to Response: Addressing the Climate-Conflict-Displacement Nexus."

Somalia consistently ranks among the world's most climate-vulnerable countries.  Climate change is the primary driver of internally displaced people (IDPs) in the country.  One in every 25 displaced individuals globally resides in Somalia.  Climate-vulnerable states are also more likely to experience civil unrest and political instability.   

Russia Expands Influence in Africa Ahead of 2026 Summit

 Ukraine's Mezha published on 10 February 2026 an article titled "Russia Expands Influence in Africa Ahead of 2026 Summit." 

Russia is sending more diplomatic staff to its embassies in Africa.  In 2025, some 35,000 African students studied in Russian universities.  Russia is ramping up its soft power across the continent.  

Trump Names Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs

 South Africa's Daily Maverick published on 8 February 2026 an article titled "New Assistant Secretary of State for Africa: Manager of Trump Policies for the Continent He Hates?" by J. Brooks Spector.

Frank W. Garcia is the Trump administration nominee to be the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs.  A Congressional staffer focusing on intelligence issues, he has limited exposure to Africa.  He is now a senior adviser to the House of Representatives Select Committee on Intelligence.  He replaces Nick Checker, a former CIA analyst who had the title of senior bureau officer for African affairs but not assistant secretary.  

Russia Shifts Diplomats from Europe to Africa

 Africa Business Insider published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Following Massive Diplomatic Expulsions from Europe, Russia Redirects Its Envoys to Africa" by Chinedu Okafor.

Russia's TASS news service estimates that more than 500 Russian diplomats have been asked to leave European countries since the beginning of the war with Ukraine.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia has shifted 120 to 150 diplomats from Europe and reassigned most of them to embassies in Africa, especially in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali.  

Nigeria Warns Nationals Not to Join Foreign Wars

 Africa News published on 17 February 2026 an article titled "Nigeria Issues Warning over Illegal Recruitment of Its Citizens for Russia's War in Ukraine."

The Nigerian foreign ministry issued a statement on 15 February expressing "grave concern over the rising and alarming cases of Nigerian citizens being illegally recruited to participate in foreign armed conflict."  The statement did not mention Russia or any state, but at least 36 Nigerians reportedly have been recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine, and it is widely believed that is the reason for the warning.

Egypt-China Cooperation to Curb Israel's Mossad in Africa

 Modern Diplomacy published on 14 February 2026 a commentary titled "Egypt's Shadow War: Partnering with China to Curb Mossad's Influence Across Africa" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University Egypt.

The author states that Egypt and China are working together to counter Israeli intelligence activities, specifically those of Mossad, in Africa. Egypt is particularly concerned with Mossad activities in Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, and Eritrea.  China has reportedly provided Egypt with advanced radar and electronic warfare systems.  

Argument for Eritrea's Role in Tigray Genocide

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 February 2026 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Role in the Tigray Genocide" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University and manager of the Tigray Genocide website.  

The author argues that Eritrean troops joined those from the Ethiopian federal government to engage in a genocide against Tigrayans during the war in Tigray.  

African Union Rejects Sudan's Separatist Government

 The African Union Peace and Security Council adopted on 12 February 2026 a Communique on the Situation in Sudan.

The Communique called on member states to respect the territorial integrity and unity of Sudan and the total rejection of a parallel government led by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  It welcomed the return to Khartoum of the Transitional Government of Sudan.  It condemned unnamed external actors for fueling the conflict in Sudan.  

Ethiopia's Conflict in Amhara Region

 World Politics Review published on 16 February 2026 an article titled "In Ethiopia, a Slow-Burning Insurgency Takes a Dire Humanitarian Toll" by Jane Cybulski, a pseudonym for a journalist who specializes in the Horn of Africa.

The article discusses the humanitarian crisis caused by the ongoing conflict in Amhara Region between the Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force.

Journalists Organization Calls on Ethiopia to Reinstate Reuters Staff

 The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 16 February 2026 a news release titled "Ethiopia Revokes Journalists' Accreditation Following Investigative Report."

The Committee to Protect Journalists has called on Ethiopian authorities to restore the accreditation of 3 Reuters journalists who were banned from reporting following an in-depth report that Ethiopia was secretly training forces to fight on behalf of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.  

China Gains Military Equipment Market Access in Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 15 February 2026 an article titled "How a 'Military Vacuum' in West and Central Africa Opened New Markets for China" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

As France retreats from parts of Africa and Russia is preoccupied with its war against Ukraine, Chinese companies have stepped up their arms transfers and military training.  China's equipment is affordable and comes without conditions.  

Illegal Chinese Mining in Nigeria Results in Dustup with US

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 16 February 2026 an analysis titled "Beijing Rejects U.S. Allegations of Financing Terror in Nigeria's Illegal Mining Sector--The Reality Is More Complex."

Prominent Republican members of the US Congress have sponsored a bill that alleges Chinese individuals and companies involved in illegal mining pay "protection money" to Fulani militias and other armed groups to secure access to lithium and gold deposits.  The bill links these militias to terrorist violence that has impacted Nigerian Christian communities.

The Chinese embassy in Abuja issued a strongly worded statement refuting allegations that Chinese nationals are funding militant groups to gain access to minerals in Nigeria's Middle Belt and northwestern region.  

China-Africa Security Radar concludes that it is generally agreed there is illegal Chinese mining in Nigeria, but the culprits are pragmatically paying "rent" to armed groups to access the minerals.

Dissecting the War in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 15 February 2026 a commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit, who now resides in Belgium, and Ella Atsbeha, who also lives outside Ethiopia.  

This is an "in the weeds" analysis of what went wrong in the Tigray War.  The authors take issue with the views of analysts such as Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot.  

African Union Summit and Sudan

 Chatham House published on 13 February 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Summit Is an Opportunity for Decisive Action to End the War in Sudan" by Hubert Kinkoh.

The author argued that the 14-15 February African Union Summit was an opportunity for decisive leadership on Sudan. The AU has been increasingly peripheral to competing diplomatic tracks.  The AU must assert its primacy and enforce diplomatic coherence.  

Update on Chinese-built Ethiopia-Djibouti Railway

 The Diplomat published on 14 February 2026 an article titled "The Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway: Still Growing 8 Years Later" by Istvan Tarrosy, Zoltan Voros, and Ali Miganeh Hadi.

Inaugurated in 2017, the Chinese-built railway is a lifeline for landlocked Ethiopia.  In 2024, Ethiopia and Djibouti took responsibility from China for managing the railway.  Projects are underway to construct spur lines and pressure remains to improve profit margins.  

China Pledges Zero Tariff Treatment for 53 African Countries

 Kenya's The Star published on 14 February 2026 an article titled "China to AU: Xi Pledges Full Rollout of Zero Tariff Treatment for Africa" by Moses Ogada.

President Xi Jinping informed the African Union on 14 February that China starting on 1 May 2026 will fully implement zero-tariff treatment for the 53 African countries that recognize Beijing.  This means that Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan, is the only African country that will not benefit from zero tariff treatment.  

Ethiopia Delists Three Reuters Journalists

 Geeska posted on 14 February 2026 an article titled "Getachew: Ethiopia Won't Be a 'Passive Bystander' after Reuters Report." 

The Ethiopian government declined to renew the accreditation of three Addis Ababa-based journalists working for Reuters following an in-depth Reuters report about a training camp near the Sudan border for the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  See the story posted below on 10 February.  Ethiopian authorities did not publicly cite the reasons for the decision.  

Interpreting Ethiopia's Constitution

 Ethiopia Insight published on 13 February 2026 a commentary titled "Reimagining Ethiopia's Constitutional Architecture" by Nagessa Dube, a lawyer in Seattle, Washington.

The author argues that Ethiopia needs constitutional reform.  Courts now have almost no authority to interpret the constitution; it is in the hands of a political body.  He believes constitutional interpretation needs to be transferred to an independent judiciary and the ongoing National Dialogue offers a rare chance to make this change.  

Has Civil War Returned to South Sudan?

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 12 February 2026 an article titled "South Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.

The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) and the Nuer White Army militia launched a new offensive in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile states in South Sudan.  Forces from the government of South Sudan responded with a counteroffensive.  Competing Sudan Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan may try to exploit the situation in South Sudan for advantage in their own civil war.  

Will Africa Win in Competition for Critical Minerals?

 Reuters published on 12 February 2026 an article titled "Can Africa Win as the West and China Scramble for Minerals?" by Clyde Russell.

Competing Western and Chinese rail projects in a mineral rich part of Africa emphasize the competition for Africa's critical minerals.  A question remains, however, if the African countries will benefit significantly from this competition.