The Role of Masculinity and the Al-Shabaab Challenge

 The Royal United Services Institute published on 18 June 2026 a study titled "Masculinities and Violence in the Horn of Africa Borderlands" by Christopher Hockey and Claudia Wallner.

This paper reveals how masculinity norms fuel conflict, violent extremism, and gender-based violence in the Kenya-Somalia-Ethiopia borderlands, shaping al-Shabaab's recruitment and deepening insecurity.  It is based on interviews with experts and community members in two communities: one at the tripoint where Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia meet and the other at the Kenya-Somalia border on the Indian Ocean coastline.

It offers actionable recommendations for defense and security practitioners to address these interconnected challenges.  

The Ethiopian-Egyptian Cold War

 Fronts, an independent online news source owned by a privately held Czech company, posted on 15 June 2026 a commentary titled "The Egypt-Ethiopia Cold War Is Key to the Horn's Growing Conflicts" by Liam Karr.

The author suggests a "cold war" between Ethiopia and Egypt is a battle for regional dominance, touches nearly every conflict in the Horn of Africa, and is fueling tensions in an already unstable region.  Control over Nile waters and landlocked Ethiopia's desire to obtain access to the sea loom large in this cold war.

What Is Russia's Africa Corps Mandate in Mali?

 The American Security Project posted on 22 May 2026 a commentary titled "What the Mali Offensive Reveals about Russia's Partnerships in Africa" by Thomas Ullman.  

Questions about Russia's role in Mali increased when its Africa Corps retreated last month from a key city to the north of the capital.  A French journalist suggested that Russian forces considered defending the capital of Bamako to be their sole obligation, regardless of what happened elsewhere.

China's Health Diplomacy in Africa

 The China-Africa Security Radar posted on 19 June 2026 an article titled "China's Health Diplomacy in Africa: Health Security, Infrastructure, and Strategic Competition" by Lungani Hlongwa.  

A small team of Chinese health experts has arrived in the Democratic Republic of Congo to help the country combat the Ebola outbreak.  This is part of China's long standing health diplomacy in Africa, which follows familiar patterns as the United States cuts back its health care assistance and alters its approach.

Kenya-US Critical Minerals Deal Counters China

 Reuters published on 17 June 2026 an article titled "Kenya, US Close in on Critical Minerals Deal, Ruto Says" by John Irish.

Kenya and the United States are about to close a deal on critical minerals that would allow Kenya to process the minerals domestically, a demand that African countries are increasingly making in their negotiations with buyers.  This is also an effort by the Trump administration to compete with China for African critical minerals.  

Sudan Armed Forces Headquarters in Center of Country Threatened

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 18 June 2026 an article titled "RSF Mobilizes Around SAF's Sudan Stronghold" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces appear to be preparing for an offensive on El Obeid, the Sudan Armed Force's headquarters in central Sudan.  

Ethiopian Politics after the 2026 National Elections

 Abren, a group of Ethiopian Americans in the Washington area, posted on 18 June 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Road Ahead: Politics After the 2026 Election."

This commentary provides an overview of the national elections that took place in Ethiopia earlier this month.  It assumes a landslide victory for Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party but highlights several problems that occurred during the elections.  Abren predicts the acceleration of market liberalization and a continuing effort by the government to obtain access to the sea.  

Kenya Deports Taiwan Attendees at International Conference

 Aljazeera published on 17 June 2026 an article titled "Taiwan Accuse Kenya of Deporting Conference Delegates on China's Behalf."

Taiwan accused Kenya of deporting two of its nationals who planned to attend a global oceans conference in Mombasa and blamed Beijing for pressuring Kenya to take this action.  Kenya defended its decision by stating that it recognizes only one China.   

Zambia's Reasons for Cancelling Major Human Rights Summit

 Just Security published on 2 June 2026 a commentary titled "In Addition to Chinese Pressure, a Backsliding Democracy May Explain Zambia's Decision to Cancel a Major Human Rights Summit" by Jane Munga and Steve Feldstein.

Days before 2,600 human rights defenders, technologists, and policymakers were expected in Lusaka, Zambia, on April 30, the Zambian government called off RightsCon, the world's largest conference on digital rights.  

According to the summit organizers, the cancellation was due to foreign interference from China "because Taiwanese civil society participants were planning to join us in person."  But a closer look reveals a more complicated picture linked to Zambia's democratic decline and more repressive policies.  

Russia's Drone War in Mali

 Military Africa published on 4 June 2026 an article titled "Russian Africa Corps Deploys FPV Kamikaze Drones in Mali--But the Sky Is Already Contested."

Russia's Africa Corps is deploying First-Person View (FPV) kamikaze drones in Mali.  They are compact, low-cost suicide drones that have become the defining weapon of modern asymmetric warfare.  The battlefield in Mali has changed as insurgent groups first began using FPV drones and the Africa Corps is scrambling to keep up.  

Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa

 Boston University's Global Development Policy Center published in June 2026 a paper titled "Development Quid Pro Quo: Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa" by Congyi Dai.

The paper explores whether China's development finance agenda is motivated by its global quest for natural resources, facilitating mine acquisitions in Africa.  It uses four data sources to examine whether Chinese development finance is tied to the pursuit of critical minerals.

The paper concludes that minerals needed for clean energy technologies such as copper, cobalt, nickel, and platinum group metals are associated with Chinese loan commitments to recipient countries.  Specifically, uranium is the mineral most strongly linked to Chinese development projects, particularly those including a substantial grant component and highly concessional repayment terms.

The Promise and Disappointment of China's Zero Tariff Policy for Africa

 The Daily Maverick published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "China's Zero-Tariff 'Gift' to Africa Could Be a Trojan Horse in Disguise" by William Gumede, University of Witwatersrand.  

China's new zero tariffs for African countries offer an opportunity to industrialize but it will only happen if they leverage China to build manufacturing capacity in Africa, transfer technology and skills, add value to raw materials, and secure Chinese financing for industry relevant infrastructure.  

Somaliland Opens Representative Office in Taiwan

 Horn Diplomat published on 12 June 2026 an article titled "Somaliland Opens New Representative Office in Taiwan as Ties Deepen" by Mohamed Duale.

On June 12, breakaway Somaliland opened the new premises of its Representative Office in Taiwan as officials from both sides pledged to expand cooperation across security, trade, healthcare, and development sectors.

The new office reflected the steady expansion of relations between Somaliland and Taiwan since the two sides established reciprocal representative offices in 2020.  

US Counterterrorism Operations in Africa

 Eurasia Review published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "The Head of US Africa Command Testifies before Congress on American Counter-Terrorism Operations in Africa--Analysis" by Daniel Volman, director of the Africa Security Research Project in Washington.

This is a wide-ranging discussion of US efforts to counter terrorism in Africa.  It includes testimony in May before Congress by Dagvin Anderson, Commander of the U.S. Africa Command, and additional comments by other Trump administration officials.  The focus is on terrorist threats in Nigeria, the Sahel, and Somalia.  

Ethiopia Expels French Journalist

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 12 June 2026 a press release titled "Ethiopia Expels French Journalist Augustine Passilly after Reporting Trip to Tigray."

Following a reporting trip to Ethiopia's Tigray Region, Ethiopian authorities expelled Augustine Passilly, La Croix newspaper's Ethiopia correspondent since September 2023.  

Egypt and Eritrea Strengthen Relations

 Daily News Egypt published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "Egypt, Eritrea Say Red Sea Security Is Exclusive Responsibility of Littoral States."

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Eritrea, meeting in Cairo, recently stressed that the security and management of the Red Sea remain the exclusive responsibility of its littoral states, completely rejecting any attempts by non-littoral parties to impose security arrangements or to impose their maritime access in violation of the provisions of international law.

Comment:  This comment is clearly aimed at landlocked Ethiopia, which is trying to obtain an outlet to the Red Sea.  

Is Chinese Manufacturing in Morocco a Platform to Avoid US and EU Tariffs?

 The ChinaMed Project published on 12 June 2026 an analysis titled "China's Industrial Footprint in Morocco: The Case of Tanger Tech" by Imane Ezzehouany and Amanda Chen.

As Chinese manufacturers expand their presence in Morocco, concern is mounting in Europe and the United States that the Kingdom may become an "industrial platform" for China to circumvent US and EU trade restrictions.

Tanger Tech City is an emerging Chinese platform for green manufacturing driven by a convergence of interests between China and Morocco.  

The African Cocoa Industry and the Chinese Tariff Exemption

 Thierry Pairault posted on 13 June 2026 an analysis titled "The African Cocoa Industry and the Chinese Tariff Exemption."

He concludes that an African entrepreneur manufacturing chocolate for export to Europe would face a 30 percent customs duty, whereas the Chinese market is now tariff free.  For exporters capable of meeting Chinese customs standards, there is a real comparative advantage.  However, the tariff exemption does not create the productive and logistical capacities necessary to exploit this advantage.  The risk is therefore a consolidation of primary commodity specialization rather than its attenuation.

The true obstacle is structural, not tariff related.  The fundamental difference between African and Asian supply chains is not access to raw materials, but where value is created through processing.  

Turkey Tries to Mediate Somali Political Dispute

 Facility for Talo and Leadership Somalia, a policy institute and training center, posted on 9 June 2026 an article titled "Turkish Delegation Works to Ease Somalia Election Standoff."

A Turkish delegation visited Mogadishu in an effort to facilitate direct negotiations between President Hassan Sheikh and his political opponents concerning a postponed election.  Turkey has frequently intervened to mediate disputes in Somalia.  

China Expands Influence in Africa's Maritime Networks

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 10 June 2026 a study titled "Beyond Ports: China Embeds Itself in Africa's Maritime Networks" by Paul Nantulya.   

China has established new shipping corridors that connect African port clusters in West, North, and Southern Africa to Chinese port hubs in Qingdao, Tianjin, and Yantai.  These routes add to the dozens of direct lines between African and Chinese ports, reflecting growing integration into China-centered maritime networks.  

China's Zero Tariff Policy Does Not Guarantee Access for African Exports

 The UK's Institute of Development Studies published on 10 June 2026 a study titled "From Market Access to Strategic Openness: The New China-Africa Business Relationship" by Jing Gu.

China's new zero tariff policy for Africa opens doors for increased exports to China but does not automatically increase them.  The real constraints are upstream standards compliance, rules of origin, certification, logistics, cold chains, customs systems, trade finance, and company-level capacity.  

Sudanese Political Dialogue

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 11 June 2026 an article titled "Sudanese Political Dialogue" by Michael DeAngelo.

Political organizations aligned with the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) met in Addis Ababa in early June when they produced a roadmap for ending the civil war.  Several key groups did not participate or did not accept the outcome, raising doubts whether any progress has been made in ending the war.

Drone Attacks in Sudan Disrupt Humanitarian Access

 UN News published on 9 June 2026 an article titled "Sudan War: Drone Attacks Damage Key Aid Routes."

Escalating drone attacks on key roads and bridges in Darfur and Kordofan are disrupting humanitarian access in Sudan and putting civilians at further risk.  

Chinese Companies Are Major Processors of Conflict Coltan from DRC

 Global Witness published on 10 June 2026 a major report titled "Who Buys Rwanda's Smuggled Coltan? The Global Journey of Conflict Coltan from DRC to the World's Electronics."

Most of the conflict coltan mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo and smuggled through Rwanda is processed by companies in China.  A few companies in Kazakhstan and Thailand are also involved.  The refined tantalum often unwittingly ends up in the products of major Western companies. 

China, US, EU Competition for Critical Minerals in Africa and Latin America

Modern Diplomacy published on 21 May 2026 an article titled "Geology Meets Geopolitics: The Global Race for Critical Minerals in the Climate Transition" by Marta Rehnman, Trinity College Dublin.

China dominates the processing of critical minerals in Africa and Latin America.  Beijing has mining partnerships with 44 African countries.  But the United States and European Union are stepping up competition for unexploited mineral reserves in both Africa and Latin America.