Rising Tension in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 7 May 2026 an article titled "TPLF Takes Control of Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The Tigray People's Liberation Front reinstated the pre-Tigray war regional government, effectively voiding the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022.  This action creates a rival body to replace the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA).  It also sets up a showdown with the Ethiopian federal government, which supports the TIA, and increases the risk of military confrontation.  

Drone Attacks in Sudan Heighten Tension with Ethiopia

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 7 May 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions Rise over RSF Khartoum Strikes" by Michael DeAngelo.

In early May, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a series of drone attacks across Sudan, including on the international airport of Khartoum.  The Sudan Armed Forces accused the UAE and Ethiopia of facilitating the drone strikes, including their launching from Bahir Dar airport and a RSF military base inside Ethiopia along the Sudan border.  

Taiwan President's Visit to Eswatini Strikes Nerve in Beijing

 Reuters published on 6 May 2026 an article titled "China Condemns Eswatini for Being 'Kept and Fed' by Taiwan in Travel Row" by Liz Lee, Ben Blanchard, and Lunga Masuku.

Beijing used strong language in condemning Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan, for receiving President Lai Ching-te.  Eswatini responded that Beijing's response falls short of the standards expected in respectful international discourse from a country that positions itself as a responsible global actor.

Comment:  Ouch! Score one for Eswatini.

China Scores Points in Africa as US, EU, and Japan Fall Behind

 The Japan Times published on 7 May 2026 an article titled "Into Africa: China Continues Its Dominance on the Continent" by Brad Glosserman.  

The author writes that "as the United States creates barriers to trade and treats Africa with contempt and disdain, China scores points with a key diplomatic bloc and source of vital raw materials."  He argues that both Japan and the European Union need to do more to balance Beijing's determined effort in Africa.  

Mozambique Considers Converting Dollar Debt for Chinese Yuan

 Bloomberg published on 5 May 2026 an article titled "Mozambique Weighs Swapping Dollar Debt for Yuan in China Talks" by Tavares Cebola.

Mozambique is considering converting the $1.4 billion it owes China into yuan loans as part of a debt restructuring with its biggest bilateral creditor.  

Evolution of China's Policy on the Western Sahara

 The ChinaMed Project published on 7 May 2026 an analysis titled "From Neutrality to Strategic Ambiguity: China and the Western Sahara Conflict" by Imane Ezzehouany, Bianca Pasquier, and Amanda Chen.  

This analysis examines the evolution of China's position on the Western Sahara and the growing tension between diplomatic neutrality, geoeconomics, and geopolitical competition in the Maghreb.  The rapid expansion of Sino-Moroccan relations in recent years raise questions whether Beijing may be adopting a calibrated ambiguity compatible with Morocco's autonomy plan, allowing China to safeguard its strategic interests without incurring meaningful political costs.  

Russia's Africa Recruitment Web for Mercenaries in Ukraine

 Foreign Policy published on 5 May 2026 an article titled "Russia's Africa Recruitment Web Is Expanding" by Maurice Oniang'o, a Kenyan journalist.

This article looks across Africa at Russia's successful program to recruit, usually based on disinformation, men to come to Russia for work but are then given minimal military training and sent to the front lines in the war against Ukraine.

China Establishes Direct Shipping Route with Benghazi, Libya

 The Libya Review published on 4 May 2026 an article titled "China Launches Direct Shipping Route to Libya's Benghazi in Trade Boost."

China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) has established a new shipping route between Benghazi in eastern Libya and ports in East Asia. Service has begun with two voyages per month and is expected to expand to four per month. 

US to Lift Sanctions on Eritrea

 Reuters published on 5 May 2026 an article titled "US to Lift Eritrea Sanctions as Red Sea Tensions Reshape Alliances, Document Says" by Giulia Paravicini.  

The United States is set to remove sanctions against Eritrea imposed by the Biden administration in 2021.  The decision is aimed at improving relations with Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, while sending a message to landlocked Ethiopia not to use military force to seek an outlet to the sea through Eritrea.  

Sudan Claims Drone Attacks from Ethiopia

 The Associated Press published on 5 May 2026 an article titled "Sudan Recalls Ambassador to Ethiopia over Drone Attack on Khartoum Airport."

Sudan claims it has been targeted on 4 occasions by drones originating in Ethiopia since March 1.  Sudan said it intercepted the most recent drone targeting Khartoum airport.  It blamed the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and claimed the UAE supplied the drones.  Ethiopia issued a statement denying the accusation.

Somalia's Role in the UN Security Council

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in April 2026 a study titled "Somalia's Mandate in the UN Security Council 2025-2026."

The study provides a comprehensive assessment of Somalia's performance during its non-permanent term in 2025-2026 on the UN Security Council.  It evaluates Somalia's institutional capacity, diplomatic engagement, and strategic positioning within the Council. The study also identifies key gaps and offers practical recommendations to strengthen Somalia's diplomatic effectiveness.

US Ambassadorships: Career Diplomats Need Not Apply

 2paragraphs published on 2 May 2026 an article titled "Former U.S. Ambassador to China Says Just 7% of U.S. Ambassadors Are Career Diplomats, 'Our Country Deserves Better'" by Lisandra Gomez-Tate.

In previous administrations, about 70 percent of U.S. ambassadors came from the career Foreign Service.  In the second Trump administration, that number is currently just over 7 percent, i.e. minus the zero.  Most of the ambassadorial positions are now occupied by friends, family members, and large political donors.

Comment:  This statistic demonstrates the low regard the Trump administration and Marco Rubio State Department hold the career diplomatic service.  What a waste of talent!  

How Russia Lures Africans to Fight in Ukraine

 The New York Times published on 4 May 2026 an article titled "'The Death Zone': How Russia Is Luring Africans to Ukraine" by Matthew Mpoke Bigg, John Eligon, and Zimasa Matiwane.

An estimated 1,000 Kenyans went to Russia and ended up in the war against Ukraine.  Only 30 have returned to Kenya alive.  In addition, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Nigeria, Ghana, Togo, Botswana, Mali, and Cameroon have reported men being falsely recruited into the Russian army.  

Taiwan's President Finally Makes It to Eswatini

 The Associated Press published on 2 May 2026 an article titled "Taiwan's President Lands in Eswatini, under China's Shadow."

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te finally made it to Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taipei, on 2 May.  He had to reschedule his original visit when three African countries, reportedly under pressure from Beijing, cancelled overflight permission for his aircraft.  

Russian Troops Forced to Abandon Base in Northern Mali

 Africa News published on 1 May 2026 an article titled "Rebel Alliance Seizes Key Tessalit Military Camp in Northern Mali."

Tuareg separatists and jihadists have forced the evacuation of Tessalit military base near Mali's northern border with Algeria.  Troops from Russia's Africa Corps and Malian soldiers fled south.

China's Role in Cancellation of International Conference in Zambia

 Skift, a digital media company and travel website, posted on 1 May 2026 an article titled "China Quietly Cancels a Digital Rights Summit in Africa" by Miguel Neves.  

Evidence is mounting that Beijing was behind Zambia's decision to cancel at the last minute RightsCon 2026 involving an estimated 2,000 international participants from over 150 countries.  RightsCon bills itself as the "world's leading summit on human rights in the digital age."

Beijing's concern was apparently attendance by civil society representatives from Taiwan.  The conference was scheduled to be held at the Mulungushi International Conference Center in Lusaka.  China granted Zambia $30 million in 2022 to expand the facility, giving it considerable leverage to influence the cancellation of the summit by the government of Zambia.  

Africa and the Press Freedom Index

 Reporters without Borders just published its 2026 "World Press Freedom Index."  It ranks 180 countries.  The United States dropped seven places to 64 compared to 57 in 2025.  

Ten African countries had better scores than the United States.  The top five African press freedom countries were Seychelles (35), Ghana (39), Cape Verde (40), Mauritius (42) and Gabon (43).  But African countries were also well represented at the bottom of the list.  The five worst performers were Eritrea (180), Egypt (169), Djibouti (167), Sudan (161), and Ethiopia (148).  Curiously, all five are in northeast Africa.

Chinese AI Network Companies Pursue Africa

 NAI 500 posted on 29 April 2026 an article titled "8 China-Africa AI Network Plays for 2026" by Jian Wu.

Huawei launched its upgraded Xinghe Intelligent Network in Cairo, demonstrating how China is exporting secure AI-ready connectivity.  As African governments, banks, and universities digitize, Chinese companies are building lossless, automated networks that are green, secure, and at China's scale and cost curve.

The top Chinese AI infrastructure companies in Africa are China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, ZTE, Inspur Information, JinkoSolar, BYD, and China Communications Construction.

Mali on the Edge; Russian Forces Retreat

 The Washington Post published on 30 April 2026 an article titled "Mali's Junta Asked Russians to Bring Order. Militants Just Stormed In" by Rachel Chason.

Mali's military junta turned to Russia to help in quelling an Islamist insurgency.  But in the five years since the arrival of Russian mercenaries with the Wagner Group and subsequently with the Africa Corps, the militants have gained strength, and Mali is now teetering on the edge of collapse.

Somali Piracy on the Rise

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 30 April 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo.  

Somali pirates have hijacked 3 vessels in Somali waters off Puntland since 21 April, the most in a 10-day period since 2012.  The problem could get worse if the pirates renew ties with the al-Shabaab terrorist organization in Somalia or Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Zambia Censors International Conference on Censorship: China's Influence?

 The Zambian Observer published on 30 April 2026 an article titled "President Hichilema Cancels World's Largest Digital Rights Conference."

Zambia cancelled at the last minute the world's largest conference (2,000 delegates) on human rights in the digital age organized by Access Now, RightsCon scheduled for May 5-8 in Lusaka.  A Zambian official said the "postponement" of the conference was "essential to ensure full alignment with Zambia's national values, policy priorities, and broader public interest considerations."

News Diggers published on 30 April 2026 an article titled "Govt Cancels RightsCon Summit Citing Security Concerns on Some Delegates" by Mwenya Mofya.

In 2025, the conference took place in Taiwan.  The News Diggers account reported that the conference was cancelled because the program included Taiwanese delegates who could potentially speak ill of China at a venue donated by the Chinese government.  

China's Zero Tariff Policy for Africa: An Opportunity Not a Guarantee

 B & FT Online posted on 29 April 2026 an article titled "Africa-China 2.0 with Paul Frimpong: Zero Tariff, Zero Excuses: Africa's Moment with China Has Arrived."

China's much heralded zero tariff policy for 20 more African countries, raising the total to 53 out of 54 countries on the continent, is an opportunity but will not guarantee significantly more African exports to China.  African countries must develop new trade strategies to take advantage of the opportunity and meet remaining Chinese quality and safety standards.   

Podcast on Situation in Somalia and Regional Dynamics

 The International Crisis Group posted on 30 April 2026 a 35-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Election Standoff and New Inflection Point" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.  

Issues discussed include Somalia's latest electoral crisis, tensions with federal member states, the future of the African Union mission in Somalia, the fight against al-Shabaab, and the growing role of external powers, especially Türkiye in Somali politics, and Israel in Somaliland.  

Omar Mahmood offers an especially clear explanation of the current electoral situation in Somalia.  Technically, 15 May is the end of the current government's term, but the situation is actually more complicated.  The current government argues it has one more year in power; the opposition says it ends on 15 May.  In any event, there will not be elections on 15 May.  

Jihadist Attacks Threaten Russian Influence in Mali

 Reuters published on 29 April 2026 an article titled "Mali Turmoil Threatens Russian Push for Influence and Mineral Wealth in Africa" by Andrew Osborn and Anna Peverieri.

A series of reversals suffered by Mali's Moscow-backed military government has dented Russia's image and threatens its strategic and economic interests in Africa.  Mali's military junta's future is now in jeopardy and Russia's military presence in Mali is also on the line.  

China Hands Over Gifted ECOWAS Headquarters in Nigeria

 Business Insider Africa published on 29 April 2026 an article titled "China Hands Over $56.5 Million ECOWAS HQ in Nigeria, Expanding Influence in West Africa" by Segun Adeyemi.

China gifted and built the new $56.5 million ECOWAS headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria in a ceremony held this week.  

Vanguard published on 28 April 2026 an article titled "ECOWAS President Declared China W/Africa's Most Strategic Partner."

The president of the ECOWAS Commission described China at the ceremony "as West Africa's most strategic partner."  Nigeria's minister of state for foreign affairs said the headquarters is "a powerful symbol of the deepening ties between Africa and China."

Comment:  China buys a great deal of good will and influence in Africa by gifting and constructing key structures such as national parliaments, political party headquarters, presidential palaces, military barracks, and the headquarters for the African Union and ECOWAS.