Friday, July 4, 2025

Chinese Military Detachment from Djibouti Marches in Madagascar Parade

 China Military Online published on 27 June 2025 an article titled "PLA Support Base in Djibouti Participates in Military Parade Marking 65th Anniversary of Madagascar's Independence."

A detachment of more than 50 People's Liberation Army troops from China's military base in Djibouti marched on 26 June in an Antananarivo military parade to mark the 65th anniversary of Madagascar's independence.  

Thursday, July 3, 2025

American Academy of Diplomacy Opposes State Department Deep Cuts

 The American Academy of Diplomacy, an organization of retired senior State Department and international affairs personnel, posted on 3 July 2025 a press release titled "The Academy Opposes Deep Cuts to American Diplomats."

The American Academy of Diplomacy issued a strong statement in opposition to the elimination of 15 percent of the State Department's workforce following the dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development and the haphazard reorganization of the State Department.  These decisions will seriously undermine the US government's ability to conduct foreign policy.  

China Turns to Africa for Copper Supplies

 The South China Morning Post published on 2 July 2025 an article titled "Move to Shore Up Supply of Copper from African Mines" by Jevans Nyabiage.

China is positioning itself to secure more copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Botswana in an effort to dominate the transition to green energy.  

Egypt Buys Chinese Air Defense System; China Solidifies Position as Arms Supplier

 Military Africa published on 2 July 2025 an article titled "Egypt Confirms Acquisition of Chinese HQ-9B Long-range Air Defence System" by Darek Liam. 

Egypt is buying from China a long-range surface-to-air missile system designed to counter fighter jets, cruise missiles, and short-range ballistic missiles.  Frustrated by Western restrictions on arms sales, Cairo is turning increasingly to China, which is positioning itself as a reliable supplier of weapons to countries in the Middle East. 

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Eritrean President Emerges as Winner of Ethiopia's Civil War

 The Sentry published in June 2025 an extensive report titled "Power and Plunder: The Eritrean Defense Forces Intervention in Tigray."

This account documents Eritrean Defense Force support for the Ethiopian National Defense Force in their joint war to topple the Tigrayan Defense Force in Tigray Region from late 2020 until the signing of the Pretoria Agreement in 2022.  The study concludes that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has emerged as the clear winner of the post-conflict status quo.  

USAID: Death of an Old Friend

 NPR posted on 1 July 2025 a commentary titled "Farewell to USAID: Reflections on the Agency that President Trump Dismantled" by Ari Daniel.

This account emphasizes that the State Department is ill prepared to manage what is left of USAID programs now that the foreign aid agency has been formally abolished.  The State Department has neither the staff nor skill sets needed to oversee emergency humanitarian programs.  

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Illegal Gold Mining Causes Tension Between Ghana and China

 Business Insider Africa published on 1 July 2025 an article titled "Ghana and China Trade Blame as Tensions Rise over Surging Galamsey Activities" by Dorcas Agambila.

A surge in global gold prices has fueled a long-standing conflict in Ghana between illegal gold mining by Chinese nationals and the government of Ghana.  China's ambassador to Ghana has tried to deflect blame.  

Rising Tension Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 The Reporter published on 28 June 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray Between Two Fires: Ethiopia's Red Sea Ambitions, Eritrea's Proxy Games and the TPLF's Last Stand" by Mulat Gebreslassie, independent consultant and attorney.

The continued presence of Eritrean troops in Tigrayan border areas has become a flashpoint with Ethiopia.  The Eritrean troops have been there since Asmara supported the Ethiopian federal government in its war with Tigray Region that ended in 2022.  Now there are concerns that Eritrea is engaging with a faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Tigray Defense Forces, using them as proxies to counter the Ethiopian federal government, which seeks an outlet through Eritrea to the Red Sea.  Consequently, tension is rising between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  

Niger Demonstrates Limits of China's Transactional Diplomacy

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 30 June 2025 an analysis titled "The Limits to China's Transactional Diplomacy in Africa" by Paul Nantulya.

After supporting the democratically elected government in Niger, China has become the main financial backer of the military regime that overthrew the democratic government.  Beijing's transactional approach to Niger has turned sour.  Jihadism is thriving in Niger, including attacks on China's oil investment.  Niger is also having difficulty repaying its debt to China.  

No National Security Justification for Dismantlement of USAID

 The July/August 2025 issue of the Foreign Service Journal contains an article titled "USAID Is Vanishing" by Jim Bever, 35-year veteran of USAID.  

This is an account by a former USAID mission director (4 times) on the impact of dismantling the US foreign aid organization.  He emphasizes that no national security strategy has been offered to explain or justify this decision.  

Monday, June 30, 2025

China's Development First Approach Hits Setbacks in South Sudan

 The China-Africa Security Radar posted on 30 June 2025 an analysis titled "Strategic Illusions: How China's Development-first Approach Undermines Its Security Aims in South Sudan" by Felix Brender. 

South Sudan tests the boundaries of Beijing's doctrine that development is the key to peace and political stability.  South Sudan demonstrates why development and security cannot be separated.

China Expands Use of Yuan in Africa

 The Nanyang Technological University posted on 26 June 2025 an article titled "Yuan Payments System Makes Inroads in Africa."

China has added two African financial institutions--African Export-Import Bank and the Johannesburg-based Standard Bank--to its Cross-border Interbank Payments System (CIPS), which is an alternative to the Swift international payments network.

CIPS enables Chinese and foreign banks to clear and settle cross-border payments in Chinese Yuan.  The system is a key part of China's strategy to promote the use of the Yuan in global trade and insulate it from potential adverse Western actions.

Chinese Central Communist Party School Delegation Visits Nigeria

 The Nigerian Tribune posted on 26 June 2025 an article titled "Nigeria, China Partner to Advance Cooperation on Public Sector Reform."

A delegation from the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China (CPC) visited Nigeria to facilitate an exchange of ideas and best practices in public sector reform.  The head of the Central Party School delegation described the structure and mandate of the school and its critical role in shaping governance and public administration in China.

Comment:  This is yet another example of the CPC reaching out to African countries to strengthen party-to-party ties.  

What Happens When US Foreign Aid Winds Down?

 The New York Times published on 29 June 2025 a commentary titled "I Worked at U.S.A.I.D. for over 8 Years.  This Is Our Biggest Failure" by William Herkewitz.

This is the account of a former USAID employee in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Rwanda.  He identifies the positive role USAID played in humanitarian emergencies and what it will unlikely be able to do going forward following the dismantlement of the foreign aid agency.

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Discussion of China's Security Engagement with Africa

 H-Diplo posted on 30 June 2025 a roundtable review of the book by Josh Eisenman and me titled "China's Relations with Africa: A New Era of Strategic Engagement."

Comments are provided by Yanyin Zi, Rikkyo University, Elisa Gambino, University of Manchester, and Obert Hodzi, University of Liverpool.  We then respond to their comments.  

USAID Cuts Resulting in Deaths in Sudan

 The Washington Post published on 29 June 2025 an article titled "In Sudan, Where Children Clung to Life, Doctors Say USAID Cuts Have Been Fatal" by Katharine Houreld.  

Following the dismantlement of USAID and cuts in support for community soup kitchens and the end of critical medical supplies in Sudan, more Sudanese are dying.  The World Health Organization estimates that 5 million Sudanese may lose access to lifesaving health services as a result of the US cuts.  

Analysis and Recommendations for a Post-Conflict Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in June 2025 a document titled "Somalia's Post-Conflict Experience: Political Rifts, Security Challenges, and Social Crises."

It contains 6 conference papers by different authors from the December 2022 Annual Forum for Ideas held in Djibouti and hosted by the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies. The first section examines governance crises, security threats, political divisions and three key types of conflict that continue to shape the political and social realities of post-civil war Somalia.  The second section presents viable solutions aimed at fostering reconciliation and social cohesion.

A key lesson to be drawn from this analysis is that the interplay between governance disputes, militant insurgencies, and social intolerance among the people demonstrates the complexity of Somalia's challenges.  


Saturday, June 28, 2025

Chinese and Indian Competition for Influence in the Indian Ocean

 Bloomberg posted on 23 June 2025 a 12-minute video titled "How China Is Beating India in Its Own Backyard."

This is a balanced documentary about Indian and Chinese efforts to expand their security and economic influence in the Indian Ocean region.  It pays particular attention to the role of the Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius and the UK/US military base in Diego Garcia.

Friday, June 27, 2025

VOA Is Not "a Rotten Piece of Fish"

 The New York Times published on 25 June 2025 an article titled "Trump Urges Congress to 'Kill' Voice of America as Its Leader Defends Gutting" by Minho Kim and Megan Mineiro.

Kari Lake, who President Trump appointed to dismantle the Voice of America, met with the House Foreign Affairs Committee on 25 June.  She excoriated the VOA, calling it "a rotten piece of fish" and "a threat to American national security."

Comment:  I worked for 37 years in the U.S. Department of State where I often monitored VOA broadcasts and then spent 24 years in academia when I contributed without financial reimbursement my expertise on Africa to VOA programs,  

In the millions of VOA programs in more than 40 languages during those years, of course one can find a few where VOA got it wrong and a few that demonstrated an ideological bias.  But the overwhelming majority were honest programs that accurately told America's story to foreign audiences.  Many of them also countered misinformation and disinformation propagated by our adversaries.

The VOA is not and never was "a rotten piece of fish."  Moving its corpse to the State Department is not the answer.  The State Department does not have the staff, expertise, or resources, especially as it undergoes drastic personnel cuts of its own, to run the remains of the VOA.  More importantly, programing managed by the State Department will have little credibility and no independence.  Foreign audiences will perceive no difference between a State Department press release and whatever is produced by the remnant of the VOA.  

The only winners in the dismantling of VOA are countries like Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China that spread disinformation about the United States.  This will constitute a classic case of shooting ourselves in the foot, but with a Gatling gun.       

A Ride Today on The Chinese-built Tanzania-Zambia Railway

 New Lines Magazine published on 19 June 2025 an article titled "The Tanzania-Zambia Railway Tracks the History of the Cold War" by Kang-Chun Cheng.

This is the account by a foreigner who made the trip on the Tanzania Zambia Railway from Dar es Salaam to New Kapiri Mposhi, a couple of hours outside Lusaka, Zambia.  China financed and built the 1,150-mile-long railway during the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s.  During the Cold War, it was China's largest foreign aid project in Africa.  

Thursday, June 26, 2025

An Assessment of US Airstrikes on Houthi Rebels in Yemen

 The CTC Sentinel published in June 2025 an analysis titled "Feature Commentary: An Assessment of Operation Rough Rider" by Gregory Johnsen, an expert on Yemen.  

The United States carried out more than 1,100 airstrikes over 52 days this past spring against Houthi rebels in Yemen.  This article provides an assessment of that campaign known as Operation Rough Rider.  The US intelligence community reportedly concluded that the airstrikes caused "some degradation" but the Houthis were in a position to easily reconstitute, regroup, and rebound.  The Red Sea crisis is far from over.  

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Conflict between Ethiopian Nationalism and Regionalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 25 June 2025 a commentary titled "Othering in Disguise: Nationalism, Regionalism, and the Search for Civic Belonging in Ethiopia" by Daniel Hailu, a multidisciplinary researcher.  

The author argues that Ethiopia's political landscape is shaped by two powerful, often contradictory forces: nationalism, which unites people under a shared identity, and regionalism or federalism, which seeks to empower marginalized groups through autonomy.  But within both "isms" is a tendency to define oneself by negating the other.  To build enduring unity, Ethiopia must cultivate a culture where identity is not weaponized.  

Russia and China Filling Void Left by Dismantlement of VOA

 The New York Times published on 24 June 2025 an article titled "As U.S. Dismantles Voice of America, Rival Powers Hope to Fill the Void" by Tiffany Hsu.  

As the Voice of American and its affiliated networks such as Radio Free Asia shut down at the request of the Trump administration, Russian networks such as RT and Sputnik and Chinese such as Global Times, Xinhua News Agency, and China Global Television Network are filling the void.  

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

China's Engagement in Djibouti

 The Congressional Research Service posted on 6 June 2025 an article titled "China's Engagement in Djibouti" by Lauren Ploch Blanchard.

This is a nice, updated summary of China's economic, security, and political relations with Djibouti and a discussion of US concerns.  

What Remains of USAID?

 The New York Times published on 22 June 2025 an article titled "What Remains of U.S.A.I.D.?" by Amy Schoenfeld Walker, Malika Khurana, and Christine Zhang.

The USAID projects that survived DOGE dismantlement of the agency are the result of pleas and negotiations of a few politically important people, many of whom had little experience in foreign aid.  Some 891 programs constituting 14 percent of the previous total and $69 billion survived and will be administered by the State Department.  DOGE cancelled USAID projects worth $76 billion over several years.

There was no comprehensive review of previous programs.  The focus going forward is addressing acute disease, hunger, and other humanitarian emergencies.  The State Department does not have the staff, resources, or expertise to oversee the programs that survived DOGE cuts.