Friday, July 26, 2024

China-Africa Symposium Highlights Left-wing Cold War Terminology

 The Review of African Political Economy posted on 24 July 2024 a commentary titled "Africa and China: Counter-Hegemonic Narratives --An Introduction" by Ying Chen and Corinna Mullin.

This piece is a summary of a symposium that took place in December 2023 at The New School titled "The African Continent and China: Counter-Hegemonic Narratives."  It assesses "the reductionist, orientalist and often racist depictions that dominate mainstream media and scholarly spaces on China-Africa relations."  It attributes African underdevelopment to "policies imposed by western dominated multilateral institutions like the IMF and World Bank under the neoliberal 'Washington Consensus'."

Comment:  Much of the jargon used in the symposium took me back to my African study days in the 1960s and 1970s when Cold War terminology was the predominate rhetoric.  The summary suggests that the presentations were quick to praise China's positive activities in Africa and gloss over or even ignore the negative ones.  While it is useful to assess accurately China's limited role in Africa's debt crisis, was there any discussion of China's mercantilist trade policy toward the continent where it sells almost entirely finished goods and buys almost exclusively natural resources?  And in recent years, China has consistently had a large trade surplus!

After reading this summary, it is all smiles in Beijing, and Moscow.  

Call for More Aggressive Action To Counter Houthi Red Sea Attacks

 The Middle East Institute published on 23 July 2024 a commentary titled "The Situation in the Red Sea Is Not Getting Better" by Joseph L. Votel, Commander of U.S. Central Command from 2016-2019.  

Houthi drone and missile attacks on international commerce in the Red Sea have significantly reduced the volume and increased the costs of shipping.  Efforts by the United States and its allies to end the Houthi attacks have not succeeded.  General Votel calls on the U.S. to take more aggressive steps "to blunt, disrupt, and destroy Houthi military capabilities."

The Pros and Cons of China in Africa

 The New Left Review published on 25 July 2024 a commentary titled "Evil Empires?" by Elizabeth Schmidt.

The author looks at the plusses and minuses of China's engagement in Africa since the end of the Cold War.  

Thursday, July 25, 2024

Can Russia Save Niger? Not Likely

 The Associated Press published on 25 July 2024 an article titled "A Year Has Passed Since Niger's Dramatic Coup.  Life Has Become More Dangerous and Desperate" by Chinedu Asadu and Baba Ahmed.

In the year following the military coup in Niger and the overthrow of civilian President Mohamed Bazoum, extremist attacks have increased by five times and the situation is becoming more difficult for the Nigerien people.  Western aid has dried up following expulsion of French and American troops from the country.  Niger's new alliance with Russia does not appear to be adequate to address its economic and security challenges.  

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Washington Post Journalists Visit Sudan

 The Washington Post posted on 19 July 2024 an article titled "Inside Sudan, Devastating Warfare Forces Desperate Choices" by Katharine Houreld and Hafiz Haroun.

Washington Post journalists visited 5 Sudanese cities accompanied by Sudanese officials.  They interviewed numerous war survivors and provided a variety of photographs.  

Tuesday, July 23, 2024

US Attempts to Energize Sudan Peace Process

 Foreign Policy published on 22 July 2024 an article titled "U.S. Works to Revamp Peace Process for War-Torn Sudan" by Robbie Gramer.  

The US plans to convene talks between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Switzerland in August in an effort to revive efforts to end the civil war in Sudan.  Switzerland and Saudi Arabia will co-host the talks.  

Monday, July 22, 2024

Podcast on African Conflict and Development

 The UK-based Centre for African Conflict and Development posted on 22 July 2024 a 44-minute podcast with me titled "Austerity Measures, Right to Protest and Police in Kenya, Africa" hosted by Michael Nwankpa.  

Although focused on Kenya, the host asked questions on a variety of topics ranging across Africa allowing me to offer views on numerous topics based on my association with Africa dating back to the early 1960s.  

Friday, July 19, 2024

Houthi Red Sea Crisis Underscores Need for US Action in Horn of Africa Crises

 Foreign Affairs published on 19 July 2024 a commentary titled "The Red Sea Crisis Goes Beyond the Houthis" by Johnnie Carson, Alex Rondos, Susan Stigant, and Michael Woldemariam.

The political violence and state fragmentation that fueled the Houthis' rise in Yemen is now wreaking havoc across the Horn of Africa.  The United States and its partners must act to stop widening crises in the region.  

Need to Focus on Humanitarian Access in Sudan

 The US Institute of Peace published on 18 July 2024 a commentary titled "As Famine Spreads Across Sudan, Protecting Civilians Must Be a Priority" by Ilhan Dahir.

As the humanitarian situation deteriorates in Sudan and international efforts to protect civilians have been ineffectual, the author argues that the international community must focus on ways to ensure humanitarian aid access is unimpeded.  

Thursday, July 18, 2024

War in Sudan Could Exacerbate Ethiopian Ethnic Conflicts

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats posted on 18 July 2024 an analysis titled "Sudan Spillover Threatens Ethiopia" by Liam Karr and Lilya Yatim.

There are concerns that fighting in Sudan near Ethiopia's border between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) could stoke ethnic tensions in Amhara and Tigray Regions.  Ethiopian officials fear that the RSF may cooperate with the Amhara Fano militia.  

Tuesday, July 16, 2024

South Sudan Oil Pipeline Rupture Endangers Economy

 Agence France Presse published on 9 July 2024 an article titled "No Oil, No Food: Damaged Pipeline Piles Misery on South Sudan."

South Sudan's oil dependent economy faces huge problems as a result of the rupture of a key oil pipeline that passes through war-torn Sudan.  South Sudan is losing about 70 percent of its oil revenue because of the rupture. 

Monday, July 15, 2024

Large Number of Chinese Mines Operate Illegally in the DRC (in French)

 Zoomeco published on 9 July 2024 an article titled "RDC: Plus de 140 Entreprises Chinoises Exploitent 'Illegalement' les Mines au Sud-Kivu" by Kiala Curnis.

A recent study found that Chinese companies are operating 147 mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo without current permits, exacerbating local concerns about unregulated mining and its environmental and social consequences.  

Sunday, July 14, 2024

China Reaches Out to Guinea-Bissau

 The South China Morning Post published on 13 July 2024 an article titled "Guinea-Bissau and China Announce Strategic Partnership During State Visit" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

Guinea-Bissau's president made a state visit to Beijing where China made a number of general promises to assist his tiny country and made one specific pledge of $27.5 million for earmarked projects.

Saturday, July 13, 2024

Niger-Benin Dispute Imperils Chinese Oil Project

 The South China Morning Post published on 13 July 2024 an article titled "As Crises Hit Plagued Niger-Benin Oil Pipeline, It May Be Up to China to End the Deadlock" by Jevans Nyabiage.

A dispute between Niger and Benin is blocking the export of Niger's oil through a port in Benin.  A Chinese company financed, built, and operates the pipeline.  It may be up to China to resolve the dispute so that Niger's oil can reach the world market.

Ethiopia's Leader Meets Sudan's Leader in Port Sudan

The Sudan Tribune published on 9 July 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia's PM Ahmed Visits Sudan, Discusses Peace with Burhan."

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was the first foreign head of government to meet with Sudan Armed Forces leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Sudan.  Abiy briefly visited Port Sudan on 9 July where the two leaders discussed the war in Sudan and Ethiopia-Sudan relations.

Friday, July 12, 2024

China-Tunisia Economic Relations in Decline

 Chinamed Data recently posted a series of charts that track China-Tunisia economic relations.  They demonstrate a decline in Chinese investment stock in Tunisia, fewer Chinese contract workers in the country, less contracts awarded to Chinese companies, and declining Tunisian exports to China.  The only category that increased was Chinese exports to Tunisia, which reached $2 billion in 2023 compared with only $250 million dollars of Tunisian exports to China.  

Can the US Take Advantage of China's Economic Challenges in Africa?

 The Hill published on 10 July 2024 a commentary titled "China's Losses in Kenya Are America's Opportunities in Africa" by Gordon G. Chang.

China is Kenya's biggest bilateral creditor, holding $8 billion of its external debt, which has contributed to country-wide protests.  The author argues that this is a time when the United States can improve its position in Africa as China struggles with some of its economic relationships.

Can US Sanctions End the Mayhem in Sudan?

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 11 July 2024 a commentary titled "Washington Is Becoming Irrelevant in Sudan.  A Sanctions Strategy Could Change That" by Cameron Hudson.

It is clear that limited US sanctions aimed at ending the conflict in Sudan have had no effect.  The author proposes more strategic US sanctions might work.

Comment:  It is difficult to envisage what sanctions the US could employ in the current situation in Sudan that would cause the two protagonists to end the fighting.  Personal sanctions on Sudan Armed Forces leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Rapid Support Forces leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, while perhaps a good idea, would not likely have any impact on their future actions. The situation today in Sudan is not comparable to the one that existed in the earlier Darfur genocide era.  Remaining US sanction options, in isolation, just do not offer much leverage.  

Wednesday, July 10, 2024

The Right Way to Counter Russia in Africa

 Foreign Affairs published on 9 July 2024 an article titled "The Right Way for America to Counter Russia in Africa" by Frederic Wehrey and Andrew S. Weiss, both with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Washington should continue helping African states make progress with good governance, economic opportunities, and security for their citizens. In the case of those countries that have opted for Russian security assistance, the best response may be to step back and allow Russia's appeal to fade on its own.  Moscow is often its own worst enemy.   

Ethiopia's Challenged National Dialogue Commission

 Ethiopia Insight published on 9 July 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Next Steps along a Troubled Road to Democracy" by Nebiyu Daniel Meshesha, former Ethiopian diplomat.

Since the government established the National Dialogue Commission in December 2021, it has done little to bring armed groups and opposition parties that declined to participate into the process.  The author argues it is essential to include all key stakeholders.  If the government moves forward without them, the process cannot achieve a legitimate outcome.

Monday, July 8, 2024

US Sends New Carrier Strike Group to Red Sea

 Stars and Stripes published on 8 July 2024 an article titled "Houthi Threats Continue Amid Imminent Arrival of USS Theodore Roosevelt in Middle East" by Alison Bath.

The Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group is arriving in the Red Sea soon to replace the Dwight D. Eisenhower.  It includes 2 destroyers.  The purpose is to neutralize Houthi drone and missile attacks on international shipping.  

Sunday, July 7, 2024

Sudan after 15 Months of Civil War

 Aljazeera published on 7 July 2024 an article titled "What's Sudan Like after 15 Months of War, Displacement, and Inhumanity?"

Approaching its 16th month of war, conflict is spreading to new areas, some IDPs are fleeing to yet different locations and their numbers are growing, refugees continue to increase, and deaths are mounting.  The risk of famine is growing, relief agencies are severely stretched, and peace talks are going nowhere. 

Ethiopia Needs Peace before Transitional Justice

 Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 3 July 2024 an analysis titled "Without Peace in Ethiopia, Transitional Justice Will Be Difficult" by Tadesse Simie Metekia, ISS Addis Ababa, Tessema Simachew Belay, Bahir Dar University, and Wubeshet Kumelachew Tiruneh, Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights.

One of the primary goals of Ethiopia's policy is to end the cycle of violence through institutional reform.  The authors argue, however, that without first ending ongoing conflicts and addressing the structural issues that led to the fighting, it might be impossible to guarantee the non-recurrence of violations.

Saturday, July 6, 2024

Houthis Adapt Red Sea Tactics to Counter Allied Attacks

 Seatrade Maritime News published on 3 July 2024 an article titled "Houthi Tactics Take a Dangerous New Turn" by Nick Savvrides.  

Houthis in Yemen may be co-locating weapons, manufacturing and training facilities in the center of civilian populations to deter US and UK air strikes.  The Houthis have developed a robust infrastructure of arms manufacturing within Yemen in an effort to be less reliant on Iran.  They are also making greater use of unmanned surface vessels to attack commercial ships in the Red Sea.

Sudan: The Pot Calling the Kettle Black?

 Aljazeera published on 5 July 2024 an article titled "Sudan's Army Chief Says Many Countries 'Turn a Blind Eye' to RSF Crimes."

In an exclusive interview with Aljazeera, Sudan Armed Forces General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan said many countries are ignoring the war crimes committed by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  He did not identify the silent countries.