An Analysis of Expanded BRICS as It Meets in Russia

 The Washington Post published on 21 October 2024 an article titled "BRICS Is Key to Putin's Fight against the U.S.  Not All Members Agree" by Robyn Dixon, Katharine Houreld, Francesca Ebel, and Karishma Mehrotra.

This is a particularly good analysis of the BRICS as it meets this week in Russia.  This is the first gathering since the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) added Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to its membership.  

Russia and China envisage the BRICS as an anti-West organization to overturn the US-led international order.  Brazil, India, and South Africa have different objectives.  The addition of new members further complicates the purpose of the organization.  The article concludes that "expansion of the group has fueled internal tensions, diluting the clout of the original founders and entrenching China's dominance."

Taiwan Rejects South African Demand to Move Liaison Office

 The Associated Press published on 22 October 2024 an article titled "Taiwan Rejects South African Demand to Move Its Representative Office from Capital" by Christopher Bodeen.  

Taiwan has rejected South Africa's demand that it moves its liaison office in the political capital of Pretoria to the commercial center of Johannesburg, arguing this would violate a 1997 agreement between the two sides on the location of their mutual representative offices.  

Do Chinese Really Want Wagner Group Type Security to Protect Their Interests?

 Foreign Policy published on 21 October 2024 a commentary titled "Prigozhin's Ghost Lives on in China" by Alessandro Arduino.

Judging by social media comments, China's leading security pundits are enamored by Russian Wagner Group's bravado and believe China's approach to the protection of Chinese interests is too passive.  They see Wagner as the model for Chinese private security companies protecting projects across the globe in high-risk areas.   

China's Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania

 The US Army War College published on 9 October 2024 a paper titled "Peace and Unity: China's Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania" by Jake Vartanian.

The paper outlines the July/August 2024 Sino-Tanzanian exercise Peace Unity, which involved elements of the Tanzanian People's Defense Forces and the Mozambique Armed Forces in a land phase and a sea phase.  

The author concluded that the PLA has consolidated its military foothold in Tanzania, including a pro-PLA and pro-Chinese Communist Party sentiment through military aid and PLA-sponsored professional military education.  Tanzania also serves as an ideal proving ground for the PLA to execute military essential tasks in land operations and to test its joint expeditionary capabilities in an operational environment well beyond its borders.  

South Africa Downgrades Taiwan Liaison Office

 Agence France Presse posted on 18 October 2024 an article titled "Tawan Blames China for S. Africa's Order to Move Liaison Office."

South Africa has asked Taiwan to move its "Taipei Liaison Office" from the political capital of Pretoria to the commercial center of Johannesburg and rebrand it as a trade office.  At the same time, the South African foreign ministry said it is rebranding the "South African Liaison Office" in Taipei as a trade office.  Beijing responded that South Africa made the "right decision."

Comment:  Beijing does not object to Taipei having trade offices outside political capitals, but strongly opposes any Taiwan office in another country's political capital.  China certainly put pressure on South Africa to make these changes.  

Investigative Report on Theft of US Emergency Aid to Ethiopia

 Reuters published on 18 October 2024 an investigative report titled "UN Food Agency Failed to Act as U.S. Aid Was Looted in Ethiopia" by Giulia Paravicini, Steve Stecklow, and Tiksa Negeri.  

Thousands of tons of food aid provided by USAID to the World Food Program (WFP) were diverted from hungry Ethiopian civilians in Tigray Region in 2023 to the Ethiopian military, Eritrean soldiers, and Tigrayan forces.  The authors allege that WFP staff chose to ignore the illegal diversions.  As a result, USAID temporarily shut down the assistance program.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Poses Diplomatic Challenge for China

 The South China Morning Post published on 21 October 2024 an article titled "Ethiopian Dam Could Muddy the Waters of China's Position as a Global Leader" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Ethiopia and Egypt have long been disputing the construction by Addis Ababa of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  Ethiopia and Egypt are also among the newest members of BRICS, which will soon meet in Russia.  China, also a member of BRICS, has close ties with Ethiopia and Egypt and may be seen as the party for resolving the differences between the two.  This is not a position that China relishes.  

China's Security Presence in Africa

 The Center for Naval Analyses published in October 2024 a study titled "The Military and Security Dimensions of the PRC's Africa Presence: Changes in a Time of Global Shocks" by Tim Ditter, Kaia Haney, Tsun-Kai Tsai, and Carita Reid.  

The study concludes that China could use Africa as the testing ground for its aspirations of security assistance globally through the implementation of the Global Security Initiative, potentially foreshadowing a future more globally active PLA military and security presence.  

China's Expanding Security Footprint in Africa

 The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 30 September 2024 an analysis titled "China's Expanding Security Footprint in Africa: From Arms Transfers to Military Cooperation" by Alessandro Arduino, King's College London.

The author concludes that China's security strategy in Africa now consists of boosting military training and cooperation, increasing arms transfers, and strengthening its own private security sector.   

China-Africa Ties after 9th FOCAC

 Boston University's Global Development Policy Center posted on 15 October 2024 an analysis titled "Back in Action: The Ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Sees Renewed Relations and Development Prospects" by Tianyi Wu.  

This is an analysis of the recently completed 9th FOCAC held in Beijing.  This iteration of FOCAC suggested that China seeks to adjust its approach to Africa by forging strategic partnerships, compartmentalizing financial tools for development projects, and aligning its engagement with regional multilateral initiatives.

Biden Goes to Angola Not Just to Counter China

 The Lubbock Avalanche-Journal published on 18 October 2024 a commentary titled "Why President Joe Biden Is Going to Africa--It's Not (Just) about China" by Tibor Nagy, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in the Trump administration.  

President Joe Biden's belated trip to Angola in December is not only about competition with China, but also an effort to showcase an attractive Western development project in the Lobito Corridor that links Angola with the DRC and Zambia.  

Responsiveness of Chinese Mining Companies in Africa to Resistance

 The Extractive Industries and Society journal published in September 2024 a study titled "Contention and Concessions: Exploring the Responsiveness of Chinese Mining Companies in Africa" by Jan Sandig, Jana Honke, and Claude Kabemba.  

The study sought to understand how Chinese mining companies in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo respond to resistance from local communities, workers, and civil society groups.  The authors concluded that the Chinese companies mostly conceded when facing sustained disruptive actions and pressure from hosting state elites and domestic and international non-governmental organizations.  

South Africa's Warmth towards Russia Risks Ties with West

 The Daily Maverick published on 6 October 2024 a commentary titled "Ramaphosa's Russia Flirtation Imperils More than South Africa's Image" by Ray Hartley and Greg Mills, both with the Brenthurst Foundation.

The authors argue that an increasingly cozy relationship between President Cyril Ramaphosa, the African National Congress, and Russia risks South Africa's trade and investment with the West and may even open Pretoria to international legal action.

Ethiopia: Peace Remains Elusive in Oromia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 October 2024 a commentary titled "Peace--and Justice--Remain Elusive in Oromia" by Siyanne Mekonnen, freelance journalist based in Ethiopia.

There is no end in sight to the conflict in Oromia.  The way forward requires all stakeholders to come to the table and rectify historical privileges that have contributed to the marginalization of certain ethnic groups.  The author concludes such a harmonious outcome is a distant dream.

An Egyptian View of Developments in Somalia

 The National Interest published on 9 October 2024 a commentary titled "Egypt in Somalia: Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick" by Mohamed Farid, member of the Egyptian Senate, and Mohamed Maher, Egyptian journalist based in the US.

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is scheduled to take over from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by January 2025.  Egypt is supplying weapons, equipment, and training to the Somali National Army.

The authors argue that Egypt's involvement in Somalia is driven by its interest in maintaining regional stability and countering al-Shabaab terrorism.  They acknowledge, however, that Egypt is concerned by Ethiopia's "expansionist policies" that "threaten Somali sovereignty."

An Anti-Ethiopia Alliance in Northeast Africa?

 Foreign Policy published on 16 October 2024 a commentary titled "The Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.

The author argues that Egypt is aligning with Eritrea and Somalia to counter Ethiopia, but a direct conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia is unlikely with the Somali National Army preoccupied by its fight against al-Shabaab.

Russia is Floundering in Africa

 The European Council on Foreign Relations published on 9 October 2024 a commentary titled "The Sweating Bear: Why Russia's Influence in Africa Is Under Threat" by Will Brown.

Russia's military operations in Africa are not succeeding, and Moscow is not setting itself up as a long-term partner for African governments.  Moscow is losing credibility as a reliable partner for African governments.  Everywhere Russia has sent troops, the security situation is dramatically worse than when international forces were present.  

A Decade of Egypt-Russia Relations

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in September 2024 a paper titled "Strategic Partners or Tactical Allies? A Decade of Egypt-Russia Relations" by Heba Taha, Lund University of Sweden.

The paper assesses the drivers of the Egyptian-Russian relationship and its evolution over the past decade.  The author concludes that the relationship reflects a tactical convergence and is mostly structured around mutual interests.  Egypt forms a key part of Russia's turn to the Middle East and Africa.  At the same time, Egypt perceives closer cooperation with Russia as a way to balance its relationship with the United States.  

New Perspectives on China and Africa

 The East Asian Studies Center at Ohio State University in Columbus is hosting on 15 November 2024 a half day symposium titled "New Perspectives on China and Africa."  You can attend in person or join by Zoom.

Speakers will present on the following topics:

David Shinn - China-Africa Security Engagement Since COVID-19

Jyhong Hwang - Built Higher, Dug Deeper: The Effect of Chinese Debt Financing on African Infrastructure Coverage

Phiwokuhle Mnyandu - The Evolution of Chinese Soft Power in Africa: Implications for Technology, African Languages and Cultures in Africa and the Diaspora

Asma Amita Belem - China in Africa, Environmental Governance and Civil Society: The Case of the Kua Forest in Burkina Faso

Joshua Eisenman - China's Relational Power in Africa: Beijing's 'New Type of Party-to-Party Relations'

The Russian Orthodox Church Comes to Africa

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 15 October 2024 a commentary titled "Russia's Influence in Africa: The Role of the Russian Orthodox Church" by Charles A. Ray.

In December 2021, The Russian Orthodox Church established the patriarchate Exarchate of Africa with two dioceses: the South African Diocese with 24 countries under its jurisdiction and the North African Diocese with 31 countries.  The Russian Orthodox Church reportedly opened more than 200 parishes between December 2021 and July 2023.  

The Church's actions are aligned with Vladimir Putin's goal of expanding the Kremlin's influence in Africa.  Kremlin-backed entities financially support the Church.  

Somalia: Status of Establishing Security

 The International Peace Institute published in October 2024 a report titled "ATMIS Transition and Post-ATMIS Security Arrangement in Somalia."

In April 2022, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) was reconfigured as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).  Its mandate was to degrade al-Shabaab, provide security to population centers, secure major supply routes, and develop Somali security forces.  The report identifies the challenges encountered and evaluates the progress made so far.

Lessons Learned from Failed UN Civilian Protection Mission in Sudan

 The Stimson Center published in October 2024 a study titled "Civilian Protection in Sudan: Emerging Lessons from UNITAMS" by Julie Gregory.

The United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) began operations in 2020 to assist with civilian protection.  It replaced the more robust UN-AU Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID).  UNITAMS was not designed to operate in Sudan's current civil war environment, which forced the evacuation of most of its personnel.  This study offers lessons learned as a result of this failed mission.  

Arms from UAE and Iran Fuel Civil War in Sudan

 The Washington Post published on 15 October 2024 an article titled "Sudan's Civil War Fueled by Arms Shipments from UAE and Iran" by Katharine Houreld and Hafiz Haroun.  

In spite of a UN arms embargo, the UAE continues to supply arms to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces while Iran does the same for the Sudan Armed Forces.

Russia's Disinformation Campaign in Africa

 The New York Times published on 14 October 2024 an article titled "Russia's Latest Target in Africa: U.S.-funded Anti-Malaria Programs" by Elian Peltier.

A Russian disinformation program is attacking US-funded health care programs in Africa to weaken Western interests there.  The disinformation can usually be traced back to someone close to the Russian government or Russian institutions.

China's FDI in Africa: What Is Real and What Is Not

 The Hinrich Foundation published on 15 October 2024 a commentary titled "How Much of China's Investment into Africa Is Real?" by Stewart Paterson.

The author argues that China's FDI in Africa is overstated because announced projects are sometimes subsequently cancelled or turn out to be financing deals and not FDI.  He cites examples in Egypt, Angola, and South Africa to make the case.