Friday, August 28, 2026

African Leaders Welcome More Players in Continent

 Vietnam.vn published on 28 August 2026 an article titled "The Geopolitical Race for Influence, Resources, and Power in Africa" by Bao Quoc Te.  

The competition for expanding influence in Africa involves more actors than ever before and is constantly evolving. Most African countries are benefiting from the increasing attention by more external countries.   

Washington Post Editorial on US-China AI Competition in Africa

 The Washington Post published on 27 August 2026 an editorial titled "How the U.S. Can Beat China in Africa's AI Race."

Software developers across Africa are adapting Chinese models to build applications tailored for African users.  But China has no monopoly on AI projects in Africa.  In compute, the US has far more to offer than China.  The US needs to revive its Power Africa initiative, which came to an end when the Trump administration dismantled USAID, in order to support African data centers.  

Bauxite and Iron Ore Dominate China-Guinea Trade

 The China Global South Project published on 28 August 2026 an article titled "China-Guinea Trade Is a Story of Bauxite and Iron" by Christian Geraud Neema Byamungu.

Chinese demand for Guinean bauxite ore and, increasingly, iron ore dominates trade between the two countries.  Guinea exports almost all of its bauxite and iron as raw ore and does not earn any added value.  It wants to reach domestic aluminum refining capacity of about 6 million tons by 2030 rather than continue exporting raw ore.  

Misfired Turkish Drones Take Civilian Toll in Ethiopia and Sahel

 HumAngle, an African media platform with funding from the MacArthur Foundation and committed to identifying security and humanitarian crises in Africa, published on 21 August 2026 an article titled "The Human Price of Turkish AI-Powered Drone Rush Across Africa" by Ibrahim Adeyemi.  

Ethiopia was one of the first countries in Africa to deploy Turkey's Baykar manufactured TB2 drones in combat.  Military misfires of the drones in Amhara Region of Ethiopia and in the Sahel region of Africa have taken a toll on the civilian population.  Inadequate training in use of the drones probably accounts for most of the mistakes.  

Russia's Ghost Reporters and Fake Experts in African Media

 Graphika, an intelligence platform based on digital relationships, coordination, and the movement of information across networks, published on 25 August 2026 an analysis titled "Umbrae Ex Machina: Mapping Russian Ghostwriting Operations Across African News Outlets."

Russia has been planting ghost reporters and fake experts in African media to advance its strategic interests on the continent.  This report provides an overview of the English-and French-speaking network of Russian ghost reporters in Africa.  It identified 44 ghost writers and fake experts who were active between 2021 and 2026.  Their media content was duplicated or quoted on 138 websites and republished on at least 113 Facebook accounts.

Don't Let Iran War Distract US from Africa

 Brookings published on 27 August 2026 a commentary titled "Don't Let the Iran War Distract the United States from Africa" by Landry Signe.

The Iran war risks distracting the United States from Africa when competition for critical minerals, trade, and alliances with African countries become more intense.  China, France, Russia, UAE, and India are accelerating their engagement on the continent, meaning any American retreat will come at a high geopolitical opportunity cost.  

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Ethiopian Military Launches Drones on Tigray Region

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 27 August 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.

The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has conducted numerous drone strikes targeting Mekele, the capital, and other parts of Tigray Region.  There was large-scale fighting in Western Tigray on 1 August between the ENDF and the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  

China Enhances Broadcasting Exchanges with South Africa

 Broadcast Media Africa posted on 25 August 2026 an article titled "South Africa: SABC and JSBC Forge Partnership to Enhance Cultural Exchange and Broadcasting Cooperation."

The South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) has signed a memorandum of understanding with Chinese media organization Jiangsu Broadcasting Corporation (JSBC).  The SABC will broadcast China Hour, a dedicated program designed to give South African audiences greater exposure to Chinese stories, culture, and people.  The goal is to strengthen people-to-people connections between South Africa and China.    

China Orders Its Citizens Out of Eswatini

 The BBC posted on 26 August 2026 an article titled "China Advises Its Citizens to Leave Taiwan Ally Eswatini Over 'Security Risks'" by Basillioh Rukanga.

China's Foreign Ministry told its citizens to leave Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan, citing "rampant cyber fraud and criminal activities associated with gambling."  Eswatini had earlier arrested 40 Chinese nationals during raids on alleged illegal online gambling centers.  

China Steps Up Engagement with Egypt

 Al-Monitor published on 26 August 2026 an article titled "China's Xi to Visit Egypt for First Time in Decade as Military, Huawei Ties Grow" by Jack Dutton.  

President Xi Jinping will make his first visit to Egypt in a decade next week.  The visit comes after the beginning of a joint military air exercise and as Huawei seeks to supply more than 2,000 advanced AI chips for Egyptian government data centers.  Huawei's move prompted Washington to consider backing a rival offer from US technology companies.

Interview on Multipolarity and Africa

 Eurasia Review published on 26 August 2026 an article titled "Interview with Professor David Shinn" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

This is a brief interview focused on the impact of Chinese and Russian-led multipolarity in Africa.  While many African countries have taken advantage of the multipolar world to improve their situation, there is nothing static about the current engagement of external players in Africa.  The alignments today may look very different in a year or two.  

China and Russia Oppose US Effort to Expand Sudan Arms Embargo

 Business Insider Africa published on 26 August 2026 an article titled "Russia and China Push Back as Trump Administration Seeks Arms Embargo Across Sudan" by Ayodeji Adegboyega.

The Trump administration is seeking to expand a two-decade-old UN arms embargo on Darfur to all of Sudan and to explicitly cover drones.  China, Russia, and the Sudan Armed Forces faction all oppose the initiative.

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

An Analyst Challenges Somaliland's Argument for Diplomatic Recognition

 African Arguments posted on 26 August 2026 a commentary titled "How Las Anod Changed Somaliland's Case for Recognition" by Abdurahman Nur, a political analyst on Somalia.

The author argues that the 2023 battle in Las Anod, Somaliland, tested Hargeisa's arguments for diplomatic recognition.  

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Nigeria Turns to French and Israeli Satellite Companies to Replace Chinese Company

 Business Insider Africa published on 24 August 2026 an article titled "After $11.4 Million China Satellite Debt Dispute, Nigeria Turns to Israeli, French Firms for Next-generation Satellites" by Solomon Ekanem.

Nigeria is turning to Israeli and French satellite manufacturers for its next-generation communications infrastructure, months after a dispute with China Great Wall Industry Corporation (CGWIC) exposed the country's dependence on China for critical satellite operations.  The decision follows a dispute with CGWIC, which threatened to suspend services over an $11.44 million debt.  

China's 1st Half 2026 Crude Imports from Africa's West Coast Drop

 Hellenic Shipping Lines posted on 11 July 2026 an article titled "Tanker Market: West African Crude Oil Exports Nosediving in 2026."

China's crude oil imports from the west coast of Africa during the first half of 2026 dropped to 19.5 million tons from 27.9 million tons during the same period in 2025 and 25.3 million tons in the first half of 2024.  In 2026, China was the second largest importer of west coast crude after the European Union.

Somaliland Seeks to Be Red Sea Security Player

 The Economist published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Somaliland Wants to Help Secure the Red Sea."

Somaliland's president says his country can help secure the Red Sea by offering military bases to global powers along its coastline.  Somaliland is prepared to offer both the United States and Israel bases at the port of Berbera.  

Monday, August 24, 2026

Did the US and Ethiopia Agree to a "Comprehensive and Strategic Partnership?"

 The Ethiopian News Agency published on 21 August 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia, US Agree to Establish Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation in Defense, Security."

Major General Teshome Gemechu, Director General of Foreign Relations and Military Cooperation at Ethiopia's Ministry of Defense, led a high-level delegation to the United States on 19-20 August.  During a meeting at the US Department of Defense with the deputy assistant secretary for African affairs he said the two sides agreed that a "comprehensive and strategic partnership" will guide the future security relationship between the two countries.  

Comment:  So far, there has been no confirmation from the US side that a "comprehensive and strategic partnership" has been established with Ethiopia, although there has clearly been an improvement in the security relationship.  This is not language normally used by the United States to describe close security relationships with other countries.  The US has given "Major Non-NATO Ally Status" to 19 countries, which is a powerful symbol of the close relationship it shares with those nations.  The only countries in Africa so designated are Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, and Kenya.  

Significance of China-Egypt Military Exercise

 Modern Diplomacy published on 22 August 2026 a commentary titled "Egypt and China's 2026 Military Drills: What They Mean for US and Israeli Security" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University.

The Egyptian-Chinese "Eagles of Civilization" military exercise involving the air forces of both countries reflects Cairo's pursuit of diversifying its arms sources and building operational independence. It also raises concerns in both Washington and Tel Aviv.   

China's Heavy Fighters Make First Flight to Africa

 MiGFLUG posted on 23 August 2026 an article titled "China Flies Its Heavy Fighters to Africa" by Joseph Duncan.

A formation of Shenyang J-16 strike jets made its first flight to Africa and landed at an Egyptian air base on 21 August, opening the second edition of the "Eagles of Civilization" joint exercises between the Chinese and Egyptian air forces.  

The J-16s covered more than 6,000 kilometers across two continents and four countries in roughly nine hours, topped up in the air by a Xian YY-20A refueling tanker.  

This is another indication of Egypt's steadily deepening military cooperation with Beijing.

China Courts African Media Leaders

 China Daily published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Deeper China-Africa Media Relations Urged" by Zhao Jia.

The 7th Forum on China-Africa Media Cooperation brought together in Beijing about 400 government, media, diplomatic, business, and academic representatives from China and 45 African countries.  Representatives reportedly urged China-Africa media cooperation to move beyond equipment support and program exchanges toward coproduction and two-way storytelling in order to help the African media better narrate their own stories and bring a wider African perspective to Chinese audiences.  

Ethiopia and Protection of Minorities

 Ethiopia Insight published on 24 August 2026 a commentary titled "Minority Protection Is Ethiopia's Federal Test" by Abdi Edriss, a human rights advocate in Toronto.

As Ethiopia engages in its national dialogue process, the author emphasizes that smaller ethnic and religious communities need institutions they can rely on when their interests diverge from those of the majority.  A state becomes stronger when its minorities do not have to fear the majority.  

Sunday, August 23, 2026

China-Africa Ties and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 6 August 2026 a paper titled "China-Sub-Saharan Africa Ties and U.S. Policy" by Nicolas Cook, Lauren Ploch Blanchard, and Michael D. Sutherland.

China presents its engagement in Africa as promoting mutually beneficial economic development without imposing political conditions.  In practice, China seeks to use integrated multidimensional engagement to advance its broader global strategic goals of expanding its international influence, strengthening its access to natural resources, and challenging US global leadership.

Economic activity is a central pillar of China's activity in Africa.  Beijing's policy banks and state-backed lenders have extended numerous loans to African governments and other actors, making China a key bilateral creditor on the continent.  China engages in education and media cooperation, and provides development aid via grants and concessional loans, technical assistance, and humanitarian programs. Security cooperation between China and African countries has grown, especially over the last decade. 

Interview on the Horn of Africa

 Saxafi Media posted on 23 August 2026 an interview with me titled "Inside Washington's Somaliland Dilemma: David Shinn Reveals What U.S. Policy Really Means."

Although much of the interview deals with Somaliland, it covers issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond, including US support for Somalia sovereignty, Israel's recognition of Somaliland, importance of Ethiopia, the conflict in Sudan. Egypt's role in the region, security in the Red Sea, competition with China, the role of African diasporas, and the contribution of UN agencies and IGAD.

Saturday, August 22, 2026

Somali Pirates Are Back in Business

 CNBC published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Somali Pirate Menace Returns as U.S.-Iran War Stokes Regional Chaos and Saps Enforcement Resources" by Aparajita Saxena.

On August 17, pirates seized the cargo vessel Lutuf about four nautical miles off the Somali coast.  A month ago, they seized the MT Asana, a Tanzanian-flagged oil and chemical tanker, in the Gulf of Aden.  The upsurge in piracy may be driven by drought and food insecurity in Somalia and increased regional instability caused by the war with Iran.

Eritrea After Isaias Afwerki

 Twin Cities, Minnesota radio station Voices of Ethiopia posted on 21 August 2026 a commentary titled "After Isaias: Could Eritrea's Succession Crisis Destabilize the Red Sea?"

Since independence in 1995, Isaias Afwerki has been the center of power in Eritrea.  This commentary raises the question whether Eritrea can undergo a transfer of power without triggering a struggle among the military, security establishment, political elite, and competing regional interests--and whether a potential struggle could spill beyond Eritrea's borders.  Internal fragmentation, a proxy struggle along the Red Sea, and even normalization of relations with Ethiopia are all possible.