Russia in Africa: Influence and Its Limits

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 26 February 2026 a study titled "Russia in Africa: Examining Moscow's Influence and Its Limits" edited by Nate Reynolds, Frances Z. Brown, Frederic Wehrey, and Andrew S. Weiss.

The study explores Russia's role, its appeal, and its limitations across Africa since the 2010s, drawing on contributions from a range of scholars.  It also looks at the agency and interests of African governments and citizens.

Opportunism continues to define Russia's approach to Africa, as Moscow hones a set of tools designed to take advantage of instability and state fragility.  African actors can--and do--instrumentalize Russian engagement on the continent and advance their own agency in the relationship.  Geopolitical competition in Africa is widening and intensifying as middle powers emerge as important external partners, in addition to traditional powers.  The West must evolve its approach accordingly.

These essays point to a complicated and mixed record for Russia in Africa that defies simple characterizations.  Russia's influence in Africa has undoubtedly grown, but there are outstanding questions about whether it can translate its gains into stable, lasting relationships; whether its tools and symbolic gestures will gain further traction; and whether it can outcompete a crowded field of external powers that can deliver more than Russia, should they choose to.

China Remains Engaged in South Sudan in the Face of Adversity

 Channel News Asia published on 24 February 2026 an article titled "China Expands Economic Footprint in Turbulent South Sudan" by Patrick Oyet.

The article highlights China's continuing engagement in various sectors in South Sudan even as the country edges toward another civil war.

Comment:  The article did not mention that the China National Petroleum Corporation informed Sudan and South Sudan in December 2025 that it is dissolving its long-standing partnership with Sudan's oil sector.  See the Sudan Tribune's article dated 10 December 2025 titled "China's Exit from Sudan Oil Fields Deepens Crisis for War-ravaged Economy."

Chinese Mining-Energy Investments in Zimbabwe

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in January 2026 a paper titled "Examining Integrated Chinese Mining-Energy Investments in Zimbabwe" by Yaseen Tayob and Adrian Joseph.

The paper assesses Chinese investments in Zimbabwe's mining and energy sectors and shows that they provide identifiable economic value to the Zimbabwean economy, particularly in the country's lithium mining sector.

Russia to Send More Troops to Sahel Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 26 February 2026 an article titled "Sahel" by Liam Karr and Zoe Sommer.

Russia plans to send 1,000 more Africa Corps soldiers to Mali in the coming months, increasing Russian forces there to 3,500.  The Africa Corps may also send more troops to Niger.  Current Russian forces in the Sahel have failed to degrade the growing jihadi insurgencies in the region.

Somaliland/Israel/Taiwan vs China

 The University of Nottingham Taiwan Research Hub's Taiwan Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Taiwan's Diplomatic Bridge: Taiwan-Somaliland-Israel vs China in the Horn of Africa" by Faisal Abdirashid Adam. 

Taiwan, which established a liaison office in Somaliland in 2020, has embraced Israel's diplomatic recognition of Somaliland, framing it as a major step forward for the emerging "democratic triangle" of Taiwan, Israel, and Somaliland, which now positions itself as a powerful new alliance for trilateral cooperation in technology, agriculture, and Red Sea security.  

Guinea: China and the US Compete

 The Atlantic Council published on 24 February 2026 a commentary titled "In Guinea, the US Has a Rare Opportunity to Gain an Edge Over China" by Rose Keravouri and Maureen Farrell.

Recognizing the risks of overreliance on a single external partner and frustrated with Chinese firms' opacity and non-compliance with local requirements, its leadership has signaled a willingness to push back against China's mining domination.

The Trump administration invited President Mamady Doumbouya to Washington in early February and is encouraging the American private sector to invest in mining opportunities in Guinea.  The US is also exploring security cooperation with Guinea, which now offers a good opportunity for increased engagement with the United States.

Yemen, Red Sea, and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 20 February 2026 a brief titled "Yemen, Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.  

This is a summary of U.S. policy during the Trump administration in Yemen and security issues in the Red Sea.  

Is Ethiopia Preparing for War?

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 25 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Prepares for War: Africa File Special Edition" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The analysis concludes that the Ethiopian federal government will likely launch an offensive against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) within the next month to neutralize the TPLF and its role in an emerging, loose anti-Ethiopian federal government coalition consisting of Eritrea, the TPLF, and other Amhara and Oromo ethnic nationalist groups.  

Angola's State Oil Company Seeks $4.8 Billion Loan from China

 Angolan Mining Oil & Gas published on 26 February 2026 an article titled "Sonangol Seeks $4.8 Billion Loan from China to Fund Lobito Refinery Expansion" by Makungu Coco.  

Sonangol, Angola's state oil company, is pursuing a $4.8 billion loan from Chinese financial institutions to accelerate construction of its new refinery at the Atlantic port of Lobito.  This would be Sonangol's first major loan from China in seven years.

UN Security Council Sanctions 4 Commanders in Sudan's Rapid Support Forces

 The Associated Press published on 25 February 2026 an article titled "UN Sanctions 4 Commanders in Sudan's Paramilitary Force Accused of Atrocities in Sudan" by Edith M. Lederer."

The UN Security Council imposed sanctions on 4 commanders of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces suspected of atrocities against civilians.  They face UN travel bans and financial freezes.  

Chinese Oil Companies in Niger in Line of Fire

 US Africa Command's Africa Defense Forum magazine published on 10 February 2026 an article titled "Rebels Target Niger Junta's Oil Revenue."

The Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice is engaged in a campaign to topple the military junta in Niger and restore elected President Mohamed Bazoum.  A significant part of the junta's revenue is generated by the oil pipeline from Niger to Benin.  The China National Petroleum Corporation and its subsidiary West African Oil Pipeline Company constructed the pipeline and continue to be engaged in its operations.  Most of the exported crude goes to China.  

China's involvement in the project has put Chinese oil companies in harm's way.  Beijing now seeks to find a way to protect both its investment and personnel still involved in the project from attacks by the Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice.    

Ethiopian Crackdown on Independent Media

 The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 24 February 2026 a news release titled "Ethiopia Revokes Addis Standard's License Amid Escalating Crackdown on Independent Media."

The Ethiopian Media Authority (EMA) revoked the Addis Standard's online media registration certificate effective 24 February.  The EMA accused the Addis Standard of violating Ethiopian laws and endangering the national interests of the country.  The action is part of a crackdown on independent media in Ethiopia.

Head of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces Owns Property in UAE

 The Sentry published in February 2026 a report titled "Dubai Properties Linked to Hemedti."

Mohamed "Hemedti" Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is closely linked to a $1.7 million property portfolio in the United Arab Emirates.  

Fault Lines in the Horn of Africa

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats published in March 2026 a major report titled "Fault Lines in the Horn of Africa: The Gulf States, Turkey and Israel Battle for Red Sea Influence" by Liam Karr and Michael DeAngelo.  

This is an extensive study on the current situation in the Horn of Africa with special reference to the roles of Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.  It includes detailed recommendations for US policy.  

China in Al-Qaeda's Crosshairs

 War on the Rocks published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "China Now Finds Itself in Al-Qaeda's Crosshairs" by Colin Clarke and Lucas Webber, both with the Soufan Center.

Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations in the Arabian Gulf and Africa are now including China as part of its enemy hierarchy due in large part to Beijing's treatment of the Muslim Uyghur population in Xinjiang Province.  

Allegations Russian Orthodox Church Recruits Kenyans for War Against Ukraine

 Religion News Service posted on 17 February 2026 an article titled "Watchdogs Say Russian Church Helped Recruit Young Kenyans Who Have Fought in Ukraine" by Frederick Nzwili.

There are reports that the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) branch in Kenya played a role in a few cases recruiting Kenyans to go to Russia and who eventually ended up on the front line of the war against Ukraine.  The ROC denies that it sent any Kenyans to Russia to fight in Ukraine.

Critical Minerals: Africa, US, and China

 Mining Focus Africa published on 23 February 2026 an article titled "Mining Indaba 2026: Event Highlights Africa's Mining Opportunity Amid Global Competition" by David Christianson.  

The United States showed up in force at the 2026 Africa Mining Indaba in Cape Town, South Africa.  The conference followed the announcement of Project Vault, a $12 billion US initiative to build a strategic stockpile of critical minerals.  An underlying theme of the conference was US-China competition for Africa's critical minerals.  

Trump Administration Ends Humanitarian Aid to Seven African Nations

 Press TV posted on 23 February 2026 an article titled "Trump Admin Terminates 'Lifesaving' Aid Programs to Seven African Countries: Report."

The Atlantic magazine reported that the Trump administration has decided to end humanitarian aid programs in seven African countries because there is no strong connection between the humanitarian response and US national interests.  The seven countries are Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, and Zimbabwe.  

What's Behind Risk of War Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

The Conversation published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on Edge Again: What's Behind the Growing Risk of War" by Yohannes Gedamu. 

The author argues that landlocked Ethiopia's desire for maritime access, Eritrea's support for armed dissident groups in Ethiopia, and Eritrea's omission from the peace process that ended the Tigray war are the primary drivers of current tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopia and Eritrea Play Cat and Mouse Along Border

 Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Diplomacy, Eritrea's Escalation, and the Future of the Horn of Africa" by Bemnet Alemayehu.  

Ethiopia's minister of foreign affairs sent a letter on 7 February to his counterpart in Eritrea expressing serious concern over Eritrea's military penetration deeper into Ethiopia's northeastern border areas.  Ethiopia charged the troops violate the country's territorial integrity and demanded their immediate withdrawal. At the same time, Ethiopia called for diplomatic engagement to avoid reciprocal military escalation.

Ethiopia Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Ambiguous Letter Said More Than It Stated" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda. 

The author raises interesting questions about the substance and form of the letter.   

A facsimile of the 7 February letter between the two foreign ministers has been posted online.  Read it and decide for yourself what kind of message Ethiopia is sending to Eritrea and the world.  Is the letter an example of what Professor Don Levine called Ethiopia's Amharic tradition of "Wax and Gold?"  

China's Digital Program in Africa

 Foreign Policy Watchdog posted on 20 February 2026 an article titled "The Shifting Sands of Influence: China's Strategic Investment in Africa's Digital Infrastructure."

Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE currently control about 40 percent of Africa's internet bandwidth and hold over 65 percent of smartphone market share in key African countries.  It is questionable if the West can respond effectively.  China may shape the continent's digital destiny.

Ukraine Competes with Russia and China in Africa

 Euromaidan Press, an on-line independent newspaper run by Ukrainian volunteers, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Ukraine Keeps Losing African Allies--And What Russia and China Built While No One Watched" by Peeter Helme.

Africa is the location of competition between Ukraine, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other.  Ukraine is losing.  Eight African countries now vote against Ukraine in the UN General Assembly (UNGA), up from one at the outbreak of Russia's attack against Ukraine in early 2022.  Support for Ukraine collapsed from 28 African countries in 2022 to 10 during a UNGA vote in February 2025.  Most are now non-committal.    

The article attributes this loss of African support for Ukraine to a Russian disinformation campaign in Africa, an expanded scholarship program, Russian Orthodox Church outreach, and mercenary support in several countries.  Russia's efforts in Africa are assisted by its ally, China, which has a massive economic engagement with the continent.  China also has 53 embassies in Africa, Russia 40, and Ukraine only 18.  The asymmetry in all categories of engagement is vast.

The article concludes that the ground shifted not because African countries support Russia's war, but because Moscow and Beijing built systems that reward distance from Kyiv.  

The Legacy of Russia's Wagner Group in Africa

 Nigeria's The Authority published on 20 February 2026 an article titled "As Russia Takes Over the Wagner Group: Implications for Africa" by Ipole Amajama.  

The government of the Russian Federation has taken over the Wagner Group under the guidance of the Foreign Intelligence Service.   As a result, it has become part of the state-led strategy of influence and power projection.   Much of its effort in Africa is focused on a media campaign of disinformation.  

China Reengages with Libya's Government of National Unity

 Africa Press posted on 20 February 2026 an article titled "China Returns to Libya with New Economic Partnership" by Tamara Pro.

Closed since 2014 for security reasons, China reopened its embassy in Tripoli late last year and recently appointed an ambassador.  Subsequently, China signed a number of economic agreements with the Government of National Unity (GNU). China will likely begin to increase its purchase of Libyan oil and may expand the port of Tobruk in eastern Libya.

China will continue to maintain balanced relations between the GNU in western Libya and the Government of National Stability that controls eastern Libya.

Ethiopia: Tigray Is Under Siege Again

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray Is Under Siege Again" by Kiros Nigus Thegay, a human rights advocate.

Siege-like conditions prevent Tigray Region from returning to normal. The author argues that the federal government is engaged in "weaponized starvation" and "economic sabotage."