Implementation of Pretoria Agreement Needed to Avoid New Conflict in Tigray

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 May 2026 a commentary titled "Pretoria's Unfinished Peace Is Fueling Tigray's New Crisis" by Fikru Kidane, a Tigrayan analyst living in the United States.

The new tensions in Tigray Region are rooted in the aftermath of the Pretoria Agreement that ended the last war in Tigray.  Key elements of the agreement remain unimplemented.  The author argues that pressure to engage in new dialogue does not replace the need to put pressure on all parties to implement the Pretoria Agreement.

Ethiopia's Tigray Tinderbox

The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 27 May 2026 a commentary titled "Flashpoint: Ethiopia's Tigray Tinderbox" by Comfort Ero. 

ICG President Comfort Ero warns that federal Ethiopian and Tigrayan troops are on the verge of a return to conflict, which could quickly spread to neighboring Eritrea and Sudan.

How African Countries Can Get Better Value from Chinese-Supported Power Projects

 Energy for Growth Hub published on 18 May 2026 an article titled "Four Ways African Countries Can Secure Better Outcomes from Chinese-supported Power Projects" by Naa Adjekai Adjei.

Ghana's experience with Chinese-supported power projects demonstrates that it is possible to achieve better results with cost benchmarking, competitive procurement, stronger finance negotiation, and project oversight expertise.

Pre-election Challenges Facing Ethiopia

 Foreign Affairs published on 26 May 2026 an article titled "The War in Ethiopia Isn't Over" by Hilary Matfess, University of Denver.

As Ethiopia prepares to hold national elections on June 1, Tigray Region remains combustible, and insurgencies continue in several other regions.

Russia Expands Grain Exports to Africa

 Blitz published on 24 May 2026 an article titled "Africa's Growing Appetite for Russian Grain Signals a New Economic Reality" by M.A. Hossain.

Russian grain exports to Africa are expanding at an unprecedented pace because of competitive pricing and a desire by African countries to diversify sourcing.

Drones Are Major Killers in Sudan War

 UN News posted on 11 May 2026 an article titled "Armed Drones Are Leading Cause of Civilian Deaths in Sudan War: UN Rights Chief."

Drones launched by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the Sudan Armed Forces accounted for more than 80 percent of civilian deaths during the first four months of 2026, killing at least 880 people.

Somalia Faces Severe Hunger as US Ends Most Humanitarian Aid

The International Crisis Group posted on 19 May 2026 a commentary titled "Somalia Barrels Toward Possible Famine amid Aid Cuts" by Chris Newton and Omar Mahmood.

Parts of Somalia face severe hunger and could slip into famine caused by a combination of drought, climate induced flooding, price hikes because of the Iran war, political infighting, and the al-Shabaab insurgency.  

Until recently, the largest provider of humanitarian assistance to Somalia was the United States.  But it has largely ended funding and other donors have not stepped forward to fill the void. 

China's Influence in Africa Increases on Political Issues

 The Interpreter, produced by Australia's Lowy Institute, published on 22 May 2026 a commentary titled "China's Influence in Africa Is No Longer Just Economic" by Isel Van Zyl. 

The author argues that the cancellation of overflight permission by Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar for Taiwan's president to visit Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan, highlights that China's influence in Africa is no longer confined to the economic sector.

China's growing leverage in Africa is now expressed through diplomatic pressure, political signaling, and the ability to shape what governments, organizations, and even international conferences can and cannot do. 

Comment:  Beijing has exercised political influence in Africa for decades.  One only need compare African country voting patterns in the UN General Assembly or consider the publicly stated policy of most countries on China's core domestic issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang, human rights, and island building in the South China Sea.  

United States-Eritrea Rapprochement

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 21 May 2026 an analysis titled "The US-Eritrea Rapprochement: Signs and Prospects."

The United States seeks to leverage Eritrea's position on the Red Sea to address maritime tensions and threats, while Asmara is counting on American receptiveness to overcome its isolation and strengthen its capacity to navigate Ethiopian and regional pressures.

The analysis concludes that interaction between the United States and Eritrea will probably remain restricted to functional engagement rather than evolving into a comprehensive and enduring partnership.

Russia's Appeal to Southern African States

 South Africa's Institute for Global Dialogue published on 16 March 2026 a commentary titled "Beyond Material: Russia's Appeal to Southern African States" by Philani Mthembu.

Although Russia is not a major economic partner in Africa, Moscow's increased focus on the continent has given southern Africa states greater autonomy and options on the global stage as they pursue their own national interests.  

Rapid Support Forces Commanders Defect to Sudan Armed Forces

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 21 May 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.  

Infighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leadership and three RSF field commanders resulted in their defection together with their troops to the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  

The SAF is using defections to fracture the RSF and rapidly integrate their troops into SAF combat operations.  The SAF is pursuing a military victory and showing no interest in peace talks.  Bringing defectors into its senior ranks may, however, complicate its command-and-control challenges.    

Dismantlement of USAID Prevents US from Responding to Africa's Ebola Outbreak

 The Guardian published on 21 May 2026 an article titled "US Is 'Simply Choosing Not to Stop' Ebola Outbreak after Massive Public Health Cuts, Experts Say" by Melody Schreiber.  

Following the dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development and massive cuts in global and domestic public health efforts, the United States appears to be doing little to stem the outbreak of Ebola in central Africa.  

China and Russia Agree to Seek New World Order

 The Raisina Hills, an independent digital news platform based in India, published on 20 May 2026 an article titled "Russia-China Challenge Western-led System in Joint Declaration."

The article assesses the joint declaration agreed to by China and Russia released on 20 May during Vladimir Putin's visit with Xi Jinping in Beijing.  The article concludes that "the declaration suggests the Russia-China partnership is evolving beyond tactical cooperation into a broader attempt to shape the ideological architecture of a future world order."

Communist Party of China Deepens Ties with Six Ruling Parties in Southern Africa

 The Respondents posted on 20 May 2026 an article titled "CCM, China's CPC Deepen Ties with Southern African Liberation Parties."

Tanzania's ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi hosted a meeting with the head of the International Department of the Communist Party of China and senior leaders from the ruling political parties in Mozambique, Angola, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe.  The parties launched the Research Centre for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. 

US Africa Command Competes with Russia, China, and Terrorist Groups for Influence

 The Washington Examiner published on 20 May 2026 an article titled "US Competing with Russia, China, and Terror Groups for Influence across Africa" by Mike Brest.

Commander of US Africa Command General Dagvin Anderson told the House Armed Services Committee on 19 May that the United States is competing with Russia, China, and terror groups across Africa.  This is being done with a 75 percent reduction in the US regional posture over the past decade, a situation which is compounded by additional drawdowns by our allies.

Africa's Critical Minerals and Great Power Competition

 Rare Earth Exchanges published on 17 May 2026 an article titled "Africa Has Become the New Geopolitical Battleground for Critical Minerals."

The article summarizes a study that examines trade flows, foreign direct investment, military relationships, diplomatic agreements, mining policy, and strategic industrial initiatives shaping Africa's critical minerals economy.  It evaluates how China, Russia, the United States, and Europe are accessing and responding to Africa's critical mineral wealth.

The entire study "In the Crosshairs: Twenty-first-century Rivalry for Africa's Critical Minerals" by Ron Matthews and Vlado Vivoda was published online on 11 May 2026 by the European Journal of International Security.  

Ethiopia: Failure of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 May 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Turned Pretoria into Abiy's Shield" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.

This account provides one interpretation for the failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement in a manner that ends conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  

Khartoum is Showing Signs of Life

 Aljazeera published on 19 May 2026 an article titled "Khartoum's Slow Recovery amid Cautious Return" by Al-Nour Ahmed Al-Nour.  

The article describes a capital city under the control of the Sudan Armed Forces that is slowly returning to life following three years of civil war that still rages elsewhere in the country.  It describes which sections of the city are showing signs of revival.

Iran War Complicates Situation in Horn of Africa

 Foreign Policy posted on 18 May 2026 an article titled "The Gulf's African Aftershocks" by Liam Karr.

The war against Iran is deepening preexisting regional proxy conflicts in the Horn of Africa and making mediation in Sudan of ongoing conflict more difficult.  It has also resulted in a reduction of Gulf State investment in the region and beyond.

Likely Impact of China's Zero Tariff Policy on African Imports (in French)

 GeopoWeb posted on 18 May 2026 an analysis titled "Africa, China, and Zero Tariffs: A Diplomatic Gesture Put to the Test by the Data" by Thierry Pairault.  

Effective on May 1, China began a policy of zero tariffs on imports from all African countries except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan.  Six African countries (South Africa, DRC, Angola, Guinea, Zambia, and Congo Brazzaville) now supply three quarters of China's imports from Africa.  Most of these imports consist of minerals, metals, and crude oil, which already enter China duty free.

A modest quantity of African agricultural products will benefit from the zero-tariff policy.  Landlocked African countries, which tend to be among the poorest, will receive little or no benefit from the zero-tariff policy because of transportation constraints.  In addition, non-tariff barriers such as sanitary standards remain in effect.  Thierry identifies several other barriers to increased African exports to China that will limit the impact of the zero-tariff policy.  He also compares the impact of EU and Chinese imports from Africa.

Thierry concludes the zero-tariff policy has less to do with rebalancing trade between China and Africa than it is an effective diplomatic tool at little cost to China but also limited in its economic impact.  

Russia's Process for Recruiting Zimbabweans to Fight in Ukraine

 Aljazeera published on 14 May 2026 an article titled "Zimbabweans Lured into Russia's War as Families Plead for Their Return" by Enos Denhere.

This is a detailed account of the process Russia uses to recruit Zimbabweans, especially those who went to South Africa and failed to find employment, to fight on Moscow's side in the war against Ukraine.  In many cases, recruiters used deception and false promises to lure the Zimbabweans.  

The Hollowing Out of the US State Department

 CNN published on 16 May 2026 an article titled "As Global Crises Multiply, Scores of US Diplomats Say They Have Been Forced Out" by Jennifer Hansler.

An estimated 2,000 Foreign Service officers have been forced out or left by their own choice the U.S. Department of State in the past year.  Of 195 ambassadorial positions overseas, 115 are currently vacant, an unprecedented situation this late in an administration.  

This hollowing out of the State Department will have far reaching implications for the ability of the United States to project power and deliver on its foreign policy priorities.

Do China's Digitally Connected Products Pose Security Issues in Africa?

The China-Africa Security Radar published on 17 May 2026 a commentary titled "Chinese Clean Tech Is Raising Alarm Bells in the West--Should Africa Be Worried Too?" 

Western governments are raising concerns about the impact of Chinese-supplied digitally connected electric vehicles and solar power inverters connected to the internet.  They have the potential to harvest large amounts of geospatial and personal data.

The United States and certain European countries are banning some of this Chinese equipment.  China counters that these are excuses to protect less competitive Western products.  These Chinese products are being woven even more deeply into African markets and raise questions about data protection.  

Ethiopia: A Song Upends a Country

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 May 2026 a commentary titled "Teddy Afro's Mourning Tent and Ethiopia's Fractured National Imagination" by Belete Addis Yemata, University of Melbourne.

Teddy Afro's new album Etorika and especially the opening song, Das Tal (loosely meaning "pitch the tent"), has drawn more than 140 million views on You Tube and ignited political arguments throughout the Ethiopian community.  Reactions to Das Tal exposed political loyalty, politico-religious alignment, competing ideas of Ethiopia, and different opinions about Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.  

Blue Nile State Location of Recent Fighting in Sudan

 The Middle East Monitor published on 12 May 2026 an article titled "Nearly 50,000 Displaced in Sudan's Blue Nile State Since Start of 2026."

The International Organization for Migration reported that almost 50,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of 2026 in Sudan's Blue Nile State as a result of fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  Blue Nile State borders both Ethiopia and South Sudan.