Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 10 July 2026 a 40-minute podcast titled "Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?" with Alan Boswell and Payton Knopf, Dialogue Advisory Group and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.  

They discuss the background and status of the Pretoria Agreement and the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  They look at how unresolved disputes over territory, Tigray's federal status, internal divisions, and worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could push the region back toward war.  They also unpack why escalating regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, could make a renewed conflict even more explosive, why full-scale war is not inevitable, and what practical off ramps still remain.

An Analysis of Ethiopia's Parliamentary Elections

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 July 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Seventh Elections: Challenges of Internal Stability and Repercussions on Regional Politics."

The huge victory by the ruling Prosperity Party in Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections did not resolve the crisis of political legitimacy, as the electoral process remained characterized by a precarious security environment, inequitable competition, and a significant lack of voter turnout in numerous regions.

As the West Pulls Out of War-torn Sudan, China Steps In

 The Diplomat published on 8 July 2026 an article titled "Three Decades in, China Is Cashing in on Sudan's Collapse" by Paul Mwirigi.

In the midst of a three-year-long civil war, most Western countries have abandoned Sudan.  China, on the other hand, is investing in projects such as copper mining.  

Russia Confirms Military Support for Three Sahel Countries

 Reuters published on 9 July 2026 an article titled "Russia and Sahel States Deepen Military Ties as Insurgent Attacks Persist."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his counterparts from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to discuss growing military cooperation with the three Sahel countries.  Russia confirmed its intention to strengthen the armed forces of the three countries.

Sudan Armed Forces Makes Some Gains Against Rapid Support Forces

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 July 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo and Angus Muldoon.  

The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has recaptured from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces several towns in Sudan's Blue Nile State that borders Ethiopia.  This relieves some of the pressure on SAF forces elsewhere in the country.  The SAF has also had some military gains near Sudan's border with Chad.

Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Experiencing Increase in Piracy

 The International Maritime Organization posted on 6 July 2026 a news release titled "IMO Secretary-General Calls for Release of 44 Seafarers Held by Pirates."

Seafarers are being held aboard three detained vessels in Somali waters by pirates and armed robbers.  The incidents highlight a worsening trend in maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.  Over the past three months the IMO has recorded 24 attempted and actual incidents of piracy and armed robbery against ships in the region.  

Namibian President Visits China: Focus on Critical Minerals and Manufacturing

 Pan African Television posted on 8 July 2026 an article titled "Namibia's President Visits China for Talks on Minerals, Green Hydrogen, and Manufacturing" by Victoria Wilson.

Namibian President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is on a state visit to China.  Her priority is attracting investment in minerals processing and downstream manufacturing.  Namibia aims to process 57 percent of its exported minerals locally by 2030.

Russian Foreign Minister Meets African Union Chairman

Fana Fact Check published on 7 July 2026 an article titled "AU, Russia Commitment to Deeper Partnership, Advance Africa-Led Solutions to Global Challenges." 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with African Union Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf in Addis Ababa on 7 July.  They expressed agreement on numerous mutual issues of concern and on many AU policies and goals.

Comment:  There were no commitments of tangible Russian assistance to the African Union or the challenges it faces in Africa today.  

Fears of Another Massacre in Sudan

 The BBC posted on 7 July 2026 an article titled "Fears of a Massacre in This City on the Frontline of Sudan's War" by Akisa Wandera.

El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan has been under siege by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for 18 months.  Most recently, the RSF has stepped up the use of drones.

The United Nations believes another human rights catastrophe like the one in El Fasher is unfolding in El Obeid.  The Sudan Armed Forces continues to control the city, but its hold is weakening as it faces increasing RSF drone attacks.  

Chinese Company Signs MOU with Sudan for Port Development

 The Sudan Tribune published on 7 July 2026 an article titled "Sudan Signs Infrastructure Deal with China Harbour to Upgrade Ports."

The Sudan Sea Ports Construction signed a memorandum of understanding with China Harbour Engineering Company to develop port infrastructure at Port Sudan.  The agreement includes plans to build new seaports.

Comment:  Although the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) controls that part of Sudan along the Red Sea where these improvements are to be made, the government in Khartoum is engaged in a bitter war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the interior of the country and has included RSF drone attacks on Port Sudan.  This is a curious time for a Chinese company to commit to major infrastructure work along the Red Sea coast with one side of the conflict.

Ethiopia Not Concerned About Counter Alliance

The Sudan Tribune published on 8 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Faces No Threat from Regional Alliance, PM Abiy Says." 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dismissed concerns over an alleged growing alliance of Eritrea, Sudan, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, noting that his country is improving its defensive capabilities.

Video Critical of Russia's Engagement in Mali

 Warfronts posted on 6 July 2026 a 14-minute video titled "This Country Trusted Russia--Then It All Fell Apart" with Simon Whistler.

This is a highly critical account of Russia's Wagner Group and Africa Corps engagement with the Mali military in an effort to prop up the military government.  

Chinese Trawlers Mostly Responsible for Illegal Fishing Off Sierra Leone

 The BBC posted on 5 July 2026 an article titled "The African Fishermen Who Blame Chinese Trawlers for Their Woes" by Ed Butler.  

Illegal fishing is a major problem in the waters off Sierra Leone.  Local fisherman charge that Chinese trawlers are responsible for most of it and assert it is exacerbated by collusion with corrupt local officials.  

China's Influence Over African Ports

 The South China Morning Post published on 4 July 2026 an article titled "China's Influence on African Ports Extends to Software, Automation and AI: Study" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

The article discusses those aspects of African port construction and operations where China has gained influence in the past twenty years or more.  They include related infrastructure projects and all kinds of software and information technology.  

The Strategic Costs of Dismantling VOA; Revival Will Be Hard

 The Foreign Service Journal published in its July/August 2026 edition an article titled "When America Went Silent: The Strategic Costs of Dismantling VOA" by Elez Biberaji, 43-year veteran of VOA.

The effort by the Trump administration to shut down the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which operates the Voice of America and sister media outlets, has eroded America's capacity to shape global understanding and ceded influence to competitors who weaponize information.

The Washingtonian published on 2 July 2026 an article titled "Reviving Voice of America Will be Difficult, Insiders Say" by Ike Allen.

As a result of a court decision and some funding by Congress, VOA is trying to return to service.  But only about 200 of its former 2,000 employees are at work and its effort is limited to a few languages.

The Trump administration is appealing the court order to restart VOA operations, and the matter is in limbo.  The situation at the VOA headquarters in downtown Washington has deteriorated so much that some fired staff believe it will not be possible to revive the organization, at least not during the Trump administration.    

China, the US and Africa Green Minerals Strategy

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 5 July 2026 a commentary titled "China, the United States, and Africa's Green Minerals Vision" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.

In 2025, the African Union adopted a continental policy framework called Africa Green Minerals Strategy (AGMS), which aims to turn Africa's critical and green minerals endowment into sustainable, value-adding industrialization that supports a just energy transition and regional supply chain integration.  

China has the processing capacity, investment scale, implementation speed, and institutional flexibility to advance African industrialization--but its commercial incentives run directly against allowing Africa to independently climb the value chain.

The US offers somewhat more transparent financing structures, stronger governance standards, and procedural models that on paper seem to better protect African states from debt traps--but it lacks the industrial ecosystem and the genuine political will to support African manufacturing rather than African extraction for American consumption.   

US Tweaks Security Strategy in Africa

 Business Insider Africa published on 3 July 2026 an article titled "U.S. Military Outlines New Africa Strategy Built on Intelligence, Drones, and Local Forces" by Solomon Ekanem.

Speaking after the 2026 Africa Chiefs of Defense Conference (ACHOD) in Luanda, Angola, from 30 June to 2 July, General Dagvin Anderson, commander of U.S. Africa Command, said the United States is shifting its strategy in Africa to a focus on intelligence sharing, affordable drones, and African led operations instead of relying on large US troop deployments.

For background on ACHOD, see "AFRICOM Hosts Key Defense Conference to Discuss Security Opportunities."

Ethiopia's Economy Moves from China Model to Africa's Free Agent

 Forbes published on 1 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia: From China's Star Pupil to Africa's Free Agent" by Wesley Alexander Hill.

For years, China found an eager partner in Meles Zenawi's Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, which ruled Ethiopia and embraced elements of China's development model.  It delivered impressive economic growth for many years, but it also contained structural weaknesses that Beijing's own system largely avoided.  

The rise of Abiy Ahmed marked the end of this era.  Ethiopia's current economic strategy represents one of Africa's most consequential experiments in macroeconomic liberalization.

Geopolitical Implications of Rapprochement Between Ethiopia and Somaliland

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 1 July 2026 a paper titled "Between Maritime Access and Recognition: Geopolitical Implications of Rapprochement Between Ethiopia and Somaliland."

The prospect of landlocked Ethiopia securing maritime access through Somaliland highlights the intersection of Addis Ababa's structural need for a maritime outlet and Hargeisa's ambition to strengthen its legitimacy and bargaining power--without pressing for immediate formal recognition.

The most likely scenario in the foreseeable future is the gradual expansion of economic and logistical cooperation between Ethiopia and Somaliland, without sovereign arrangements or formal recognition.  While the option of recognition or sovereign maritime privileges remains possible, it is less likely and would require deeper regional and international transformations.  

Amnesty International's Massive Report on Atrocities in Sudan's North Darfur

 Amnesty International published on 1 July 2026 a report titled "City Under Seige, Children Under Fire: Rapid Support Forces' Crimes Against Humanity in North Darfur."

This is a 202-page report on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) atrocities in North Darfur based on 247 interviews, including 208 with survivors of the RSF seizure of El Fasher, capital of North Darfur.

US Imposes New Sanctions on Warring Parties in Sudan

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 July 2026 an article titled "US Sanctions RSF and SAF" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The United States has imposed additional sanctions on parties backing the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.  These sanctions are part of a long list of US sanctions dating back to 2023.

Comment:  Previous US sanctions on the warring parties in Sudan have had no impact on the fighting and these new sanctions will simply be more of the same.

US-China Competition in the Middle East and North Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 1 July 2026 an analysis titled "In the Middle East and North Africa, America and China Converge More Than They Diverge" by Amr Hamzawy and Kathryn Selfe.

Competition between the United States and China in the Middle East and North Africa is less a threat and more an opportunity.  The region has important geostrategic significance for both countries.  As great power competition develops globally, Washington and Beijing's positions in the region are increasingly converging.  

The United States and China are united by their primary interest in maintaining free trade in the region.  For both countries, a stable, peace-driven order is key.  Washington is also driven by interest in Israel's security; Beijing is similarly driven by China's need for oil and liquid natural gas.  These two interests are compatible and underscore the need for peace and stability in the region.  

Podcast of Somaliland's Culture and History

 Higher Education Today posted about a month ago a 29-minute podcast titled "Culture and History of Somaliland" hosted by Steven Roy Goodman with Jama Musa Jama, Hargeisa Cultural Centre, and Lee Cassanelli, professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania.  

This is a positive account filmed in Hargeisa of Somaliland's history and culture, interspersed with video clips of the country.  

Ethiopia Signs Debt Deal with Private Lenders

 Foreign Policy published on 1 July 2026 an article titled "What to Know About Ethiopia's Debt Breakthrough" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.

A year ago, Ethiopia reached a final agreement on restructuring $8.4 billion of bilateral loans, with $3.5 billion in debt relief.  But a deal on the $1 billion bond held by private lenders proved to be more elusive.  Under a recent deal, the bondholders have agreed to reduce the $1 billion debt to $880 million, repaid in installments by 2029.

Changing Geopolitics in the Horn of Africa

 The Rift Valley Institute recently published a report titled "The New Geopolitics of Eastern Africa."

The British Institute of Eastern Africa, Chatham House, and the Rift Valley Institute convened a group of experts to discuss the ongoing transformation of geopolitics in the Horn of Africa.  This paper summarizes their conclusions, noting that the region is experiencing profound multi-decade shifts in its relationship with the wider world.