Chinese Companies Expand Surveillance Projects in Africa

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 21 March 2026 an article titled "Guinea's New Safe City Deal Pushes China's Surveillance Footprint to Nearly Half of Africa."

Guinea obtained a loan from China's Export-Import Bank to install urban surveillance systems across 324 sites in 8 cities.  The stated purpose is to enhance public security, emergency response, urban planning, and governance.

At least 26 African countries now have Chinese safe city systems either operational, planned, or stalled.  A key feature of these systems is facial recognition. The systems are often installed in a weak regulatory environment leaving them open to abuse.

South Africa Takes Action on Chinese Dumping of Steel Products

 LN24 International published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "South Africa Imposes Steep Tariffs on Structural Steel Imports from China, Thailand."

South Africa imposed a tariff of 75 percent on structural steel imports from China following evidence of persistent dumping by Chinese companies.  It also imposed a 20 percent tariff on imports from Thailand.  The goal is to protect South African steel producers.  China has not yet responded.    

Ethiopia Moves Away from Marxist Economics

 The Washington Post published on 18 March 2026 an editorial titled "Ethiopia Starts to Bury Its Marxist Past."

The editorial comments favorably on floating Ethiopia's currency in mid-2024, allowing foreign banks to operate in the country for the first time, launching the first stock exchange of the modern era, and, especially, an ambitious privatization effort.  

While it also notes some serious challenges facing Ethiopia, it concludes that opening the economy can help make everything else easier for a country that has failed to live up to its potential for too long.  

Impact of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises in Africa

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 17 March 2026 an analysis titled "Chinese State-Owned Enterprises and Market Capture in Africa" by Paul Nantulya.

China has the largest state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector in the world, accounting for about 20 percent of China's GDP.  African economic sectors such as mining, railways, and power generation can become dominated by large Chinese SOEs.  They can then out compete African companies and other investors, create supply chain dependence on Chinese firms, and reduce the bargaining power of African governments.  

Africa and the 2026 World Happiness Report

 Gallup just released its "World Happiness Report 2026" that assesses 147 countries from 2023 through 2025.  The 2026 edition highlights the role social media plays in social connection, trust, and shared experiences worldwide.

The happiest African countries based on the social media focus were Mauritius (73), Libya (81), Algeria (83), Mozambique (93), and Gabon (96).  The least happy African countries were DRC (140), Botswana (143), Zimbabwe (144), Malawi (145), and Sierra Leone (146).

Comment:  There are surprises, at least for me, at both ends of the scale.  The focus on social media probably accounts for them

European Union Competes with China in Africa's Digital Economy

 Diplobrief Media posted on 19 March 2026 an article titled "EU Takes on China in Africa's Digital Race with Inaugural Global Gateway Deal in Kenya."

The European Union moved to counter China's growing influence in Africa's digital space.  As part of its Global Gateway strategy, the EU launched a new technology partnership with Kenya to deepen collaboration in telecommunications infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and e-governance.  

Update on Military Situation in Sudan Conflict

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 19 March 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo and Elliot Nazar.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has consolidated control in western Sudan while the Sudan Armed Forces made gains in southeastern Sudan.  External actors continue to fuel the conflict.  

Unpacking Instability in the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 19 March 2026 a 36-minute podcast titled "What Is Really Going on in the Horn?" with Alan Boswell and Moses Chrispus Okello, Institute of Security Studies.

The drivers of conflict and instability in the Horn of Africa are no longer confined to the Horn, which is being absorbed into the geopolitical arena of the Red Sea and Gulf States.  External actors are contributing to fragmentation in the Horn that is rooted in domestic politics.  

Landlocked Ethiopia is key to stability in the region because it borders all other countries in the Horn, is the most populous, and is now trying to obtain access to the Red Sea.

Different Chinese and American Strategies to Access DRC Minerals

 Discovery Alert posted on 18 March 2026 an article titled "US Push into DRC Copper and Cobalt Reshapes Global Mineral Security" by Muflih Hidayat.

US Project Vault is a $30 billion critical minerals investment framework.  Rather than purchasing minerals on the international market, the US strategy involves deep capital investment in extraction, processing, and transportation infrastructure.

This contrasts with China's approach.  In the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, Chinese entities control 15 major copper/cobalt operations representing billions of dollars in infrastructure investment accumulated over two decades. This strategy has created supply chains that flow predominantly to China, limiting Western access to critical minerals. 

The comparison between Chinese billions already invested and American strategic financing reveals the challenge facing Western countries.  China's established infrastructure relationships and operational experience provide significant advantages that cannot be overcome through financial resources alone.  

Ethiopia's Little-Known Conflict in the Lower Omo

 African Arguments posted on 4 March 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Smaller Wars: Destitution, Conflict Escalation, and Military Abuses in Lower Omo" by Lucie Buffavand.

Me'en and Mun people (also known as Bodi and Mursi) are agro-pastoralists who live in the lower Omo Valley in southern Ethiopia.  These two small ethnic groups have been engaged in conflict since 2023.  Cattle rustling and competition for food is behind much of the conflict.

African Export Controls on Raw Minerals May Disrupt Chinese Supply Chains

 China-Africa News published on 17 March 2026 an article titled "Growing Debate Over African Resource Policies and Their Impact on China" by Cremilda Macuacua.  

A growing number of African countries are putting restrictions on the export of raw minerals.  As the largest importer of many of Africa's minerals, these export controls could disrupt current Chinese supply chains.  

Chinese Artificial Intelligence Surveillance in 11 African Countries

 The Institute of Development Studies published in March 2026 a major study titled "Smart City Surveillance in Africa: Mapping Chinese AI Surveillance Across 11 Countries" edited by Wairagala Wakabi and Tony Roberts.

The report provides a comprehensive account of smart city surveillance in Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.  China is by far the largest supplier of AI surveillance technologies to African governments, including to all 11 covered in this study.  

The rapid expansion of smart city surveillance is having a chilling effect on ordinary citizens and journalists.  The scale and invasive nature of mass surveillance is often not legal, necessary, or proportionate.  There is little evidence that the expansion of digital surveillance reduces overall crime.

Federal Judge Reinstates Voice of America Employees

 The Washington Post published on 17 March 2026 an article titled "Judge Reinstates 1,000 Voice of America Employees, Deems Wind-down Illegal" by Scott Nover.

Following a full year on paid administrative leave as a result of the Trump administration's effort to dismantle the Voice of America (VOA) and its parent organization, the Agency for Global Media (USAGM), a federal judge ruled the action unlawful and ordered USAGM to return more than 1,000 employees to work by March 23 to resume international broadcasting.  Under Kari Lake, USAGM retained only 68 positions.

Comment:  The Trump administration may appeal the decision.  It is also not clear how many of the employees are still available, although most of them likely remained with VOA as they were being paid but not allowed to work.  This is a major victory for telling America's story abroad.  

Sudan Remains Most Neglected Global Crisis

 Deutsche Welle published on 15 March 2026 an article titled "Civil War in Sudan Is a Never-ending Humanitarian Crisis" by Jennifer Holleis,

This update on the civil war in Sudan is a continuing humanitarian crisis increasingly fueled by drone warfare and disappearing from international attention.

China's Oil Tankers Take on Saudi Crude in Red Sea to Avoid Hormuz

 Caixin Global published on 17 March 2026 an article titled "Chinese Supertanker Changes Route and Takes Oil Without Passing through Hormuz."

A Chinese supertanker originally scheduled to load crude oil in the UAE rerouted to the Saudi Arabian Red Sea port of Yanbu.  Other vessels are taking a similar action, causing a bottleneck at the port, which is served by an oil pipeline with limited capacity.  

China's Manufacturing Transfer Not Benefiting Africa Much

 The African News Agency published on 16 March 2026 an article titled "Africa's Manufacturing Moment and Why It Keeps Slipping Away" by Chloe Maluleke.

Africa accounts for only 2 percent of manufacturing value added and 1.3 percent of global manufacturing exports.  As companies move manufacturing out of countries like China, North Africa is capturing some of the shift, but sub-Saharan Africa is largely missing out.

Africa continues to export raw materials and import manufactured products.  China's zero tariffs on African goods beginning May 1st are not likely to change significantly the structural problems of processing capacity, power shortages, and harmonized trade frameworks. 

Tracking the Islamic State in Somalia

 The BBC posted on 15 March 2026 an article titled "'We Will Go Wherever They Hide': Rooting Out IS in Somalia" by Sahnun Ahmed and Scarlett Barter.

In 2025, there were an estimated 800 Islamic State fighters in the Puntland region of Somalia, more than half of them foreigners.  The Puntland Defense Forces and American drones are committed to tracking them down.  

Microsoft and China's DeepSeek Compete for AI Market in Africa

 WinBuzzer posted on 12 March 2026 an article titled "Microsoft Trains Millions in Africa to Counter DeepSeek" by Markus Kasanmascheff.  

US Microsoft is racing to train millions of Africans on its artificial intelligence (AI) tools before Chinese rivals led by DeepSeek lock in the continent's fastest growing user base.  DeepSeek has already captured 11 to 14 percent of the AI market in Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Uganda, and Niger.  

China, Africa, and Cobalt

 Delaware-incorporated Farmonaut posted on 7 March 2026 a promotional piece titled "Cobalt Shares: China, Africa and the Global 2026 Refining Share."

In 2026, China will control over 75 percent of global cobalt refining capacity, although it mines less than 2 percent domestically.  Africa, especially the Democratic Republic of Congo, supplies more than 70 percent of the world's cobalt, but refines less than 5 percent of its own product.  This promotion looks especially at the use of cobalt in the agricultural and forestry sectors.  

The Plusses and Minuses for Africa of China's New Zero Tariff Policy

 The Conversation published on 12 March 2026 a commentary titled "China's New Tariff-free Regime for Africa: The Potential Upside and Downside" by Lauren Johnston, University of Sydney.

When China's zero-tariff policy for Africa kicks in on 1 May, the author suggests there will be two major likely outcomes.  On the positive side, zero tariffs could provide incentives for cross-country export cooperation within Africa.  On the negative, it risks creating conditions in which Africa's strong economies such as South Africa, Morocco, and Kenya capture the most gain at the expense of weaker economies.  

Regionalizing Sudan's Civil War

 The International Crisis Group posted on 11 March 2026 a commentary titled "Sudan's Devastating War Rages on as Regional Rivalries Deepen" by Shewit Woldemichael.  

As Sudan's civil war nears its fourth year, the conflict is steadily regionalizing into the Horn of Africa and Gulf States, making any settlement harder to achieve.  Supporting the Sudan Armed Forces are Egypt, Eritrea, Turkiye, Qatar, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.  The principal backer of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is the UAE.  The feud between the UAE and Saudi Arabia now risks deepening the intractable nature of the war.  

The Plusses and Minuses of China's Investment and Trade in Africa

 The Conversation published on 10 March 2026 a commentary titled "China in Africa: Investment and Trade Work Well When There's Strong Oversight, and Badly When There Isn't" by Vincent Tawiah, Dublin City University.

The author concludes that Chinese investment, loans, and trade in Africa offer substantial economic opportunity, but they can also lead to the rapid depletion of vital energy and forestry resources, undermining long-term development goals if institutional guardrails are weak.

Will China Pursue a Military Base on Africa's Atlantic Coast?

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 10 March 2026 an article titled "Will China Pursue a Military Base in Africa's Atlantic Ocean?" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.  

The author argues that contrary to conventional wisdom in US military circles, China is not particularly interested in having a military base on Africa's Atlantic coast.  It would represent a massive logistical overextension at a time when China needs to concentrate naval power close to home.  Such a base would be highly exposed and vulnerable to attack, making it a strategic liability rather than an asset.  In any event, by investing extensively in West African commercial ports, China has access, at least in peace time, for PLA Navy port calls.  

Comment:  While the author makes some good points, it was generally thought that China, which professed publicly that it did not believe in military bases outside China, would not establish a military base in Djibouti--until it did.  

Interview with Tigray Press: Part 2

 This is part 2 of the Tigray Press interview with me on 9 March 2026 hosted by Bisrat Kebede.  Part 1 is posted below on 10 March.  

This 44-minute segment focuses on the current situation in the Horn of Africa and the engagement in Africa of the United States, China, and Russia.   

US, China, and Russia Are Largest Major Arms Suppliers for Africa

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in March 2026 its "Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2025" by Mathew George, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman.  

During the period 2021-2025, the largest supplier of major weapons to all of Africa was the United States (19 percent), followed by China (17 percent), and Russia (15 percent).  Nearly all of the American weapons went to Morocco and Egypt.  These percentages do not include small arms and light weapons, which would drive up percentages for China and Russia.

The largest supplier of major weapons to sub-Saharan Africa during this period was China (22 percent), Russia (12 percent), and Turkiye (11 percent).  The three countries receiving the most major weapons were Nigeria (16 percent), Senegal (9 percent), and Mali (8 percent).