Dismantlement of USAID Projected to Result in Many Deaths

 CNN published on 4 February 2026 an article titled "One Year on from Dismantlement of USAID, Study Projects that Global Aid Cuts Could Lead to 9.4 Million Deaths by 2030" by Lauren Kent.

The Trump administration dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID) early last year.  A new study by the Lancet medical journal projects that the human toll of these aid cuts could lead to at least 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030.

The Center for Global Development reports that the dismantlement of USAID may have led to between 500,000 to 1,000,000 lives lost in 2025 compared to previous years.  

Kenya's Ruling Party to Model Training After and Seeks Funding from Communist Party of China

 Kenyans.co.ke posted on 31 January 2026 an article titled "Ruto to Launch Political School for UDA Using Communist Party of China Framework" by Maxwell Amunga.

A senior delegation from Kenya's ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is in China studying the Communist Party of China's (CPC) organization, cadre training, and grassroots mobilization.  The delegation aims to incorporate best practices in political discipline, governance structures, and leadership development.

The Star published on 31 January 2026 an article titled "Top UDA Officials in China Ahead of Launch of UDA Party School" by Felix Kipkemoi.  

This article adds that the current visit to the Zhejiang Provincial Party School follows talks in 2024 between UDA and CPC officials on party-to-party cooperation.  The article also notes that the UDA is seeking up to $7.75 million from the CPC to serve as its headquarters, which will incorporate the new party leadership school.  The UDA is banking on the solid relations Kenya has with China to secure the funding.  

Israel's Rationale for Recognizing Somaliland

 The National Institute Press published on 3 February 2026 a commentary titled "What Israel Sees in Somaliland" by Ilan Berman, American Foreign Policy Council.

The commentary concludes that Israel's recognition of Somaliland provides it with a strategic foothold across from Yemen, greater proximity to the ongoing threat posed by the Houthis, a deeper stake in Red Sea security, and the potential to expand its influence in Africa.  

Taiwan Exercises Soft Power in Somaliland

 Saxafi Media published on 28 January 2026 an article titled "Soft Power with Somaliland: How Taiwan Is Shaping Influence Through Partnership, Not Pressure."

The article reprints an editorial from the Taipei Times, which underscores the soft power diplomacy that Taiwan is pursuing in Somaliland, where Taipei has established a liaison office.  

Kenya Converts Chinese Loans from Dollar to Yuan Denomination

 Kenya's Sharp Daily published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "Kenya's Shift to Yuan-Denominated Debt: Economic Strategy, Risks, and Regional Momentum" by Ryan Macharia.

Kenya has converted three dollar-denominated loans with the Export-Import Bank of China into yuan, a restructuring expected to reduce annual debt servicing costs to China by $215 million annually.  Yuan-denominated interest rates are lower than their dollar counterparts, easing pressure on Kenya's public finances and reducing exposure to US interest rate cycles.

The International Monetary Fund cautions, however, that while currency conversion can reduce near-term costs, it also introduces exposure to Chinese currency fluctuations, which may pose new currency risks if not matched with sufficient yuan revenue streams or hedge strategies.  

Russia Lures/Recruits Africans to Fight against Ukraine

 The Washington Post published on 2 February 2026 an article titled "Kenyan Job Seekers Were Lured to Russia, Then Sent to Die in Ukraine" by Rael Ombuor and Katharine Houreld.  

The story is based on interviews with four Kenyans who fought for Russia in Ukraine and family members of nine other Kenyan recruits. Ukraine sources have identified 1,436 nationals from 36 African countries fighting for Russia.  Some of the Africans were recruited to fight on the side of Russia while others were lured to Russia for civilian employment and forced to fight for Russia.  

US Ramps Up Airstrikes in Somalia

 Semafor published on 2 February 2026 an article titled "View/Why US Airstrikes in Somalia Are Reaching Record Levels under Trump" by Tomi Oladipo.  

The second Trump administration has launched 144 airstrikes so far against al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia.  That is more than half the number during all of Trump's first term.  

Is US Policy in Africa Access to Critical Minerals and Health Care?

 Semafor published on 2 February 2026 an article titled "Exclusive/Trump Advisers Refine Their Africa Strategy" by Shelby Talcott and Yinka Adegoke.

The new person in charge of the Africa Bureau at the State Department, Nick Checker, said the United States is not going to compete dollar for dollar with China in Africa on projects like building roads.  The US is focused on "commercial diplomacy" in priority sectors such as access to critical minerals where it will compete head-to-head with China.  Health care seems to be another priority area.  

Sudan: Pakistan and China Rebuild Air Force

 Military Africa posted on 1 February 2026 an article titled "Pakistan Finalizes 1.5 Billion Dollar Arms Agreement with Sudan" by Darek Liam.  

The Sudan Armed Forces is in the final stage of closing a $1.5 billion deal with Pakistan that could restore air supremacy as it battles the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  The package reportedly includes 10 Karakoram-8 (K-8) light attack aircraft and more than 200 Shahpar series of tactical UAVs.  

China and Pakistan jointly developed the K-8.  The deal may also include the JF-Thunder multirole fighter developed with China and produced in Pakistan.  This would represent a major upgrade for the SAF air wing.  

African Countries Have More Policy Options: West, China, Russia, Gulf States

 Politics Today published on 23 January 2026 an article titled "Africa's Quiet Power Shift: From Russian Gold Deals to China's Training Push" by Goktug Caliskan, International University of Rabat.  

The author concluded the question among African governments is no longer whether Russia's Africa Corps, China's training offensive, Trump's transactional policy or Europe's climate money is most attractive.  The question is how African governments use these choices to maneuver and quietly rewrite the rules.  Africa is learning to say yes, no, or not yet--and to make everyone wait.  

State Department's Africa Bureau: Little Room for Career Diplomats

 AllAfrica.com posted on 12 January 2026 an analysis titled "Africa: Former CIA Analyst Now Top U.S. Africa Official at State; Dealmaking Dominates as Conflicts Spread" by Reed Kramer.  

The top official in the State Department Africa Bureau, Nick Checker, comes from the Central Intelligence Agency via the Trump administration's National Security Council.  Massad Boulos, the U.S. Senior Adviser for Arab and African Affairs, is the father of Tiffany Trump's husband and former truck and heavy machinery dealer in Nigeria.  

The Trump administration recalled 15 career ambassadors from embassies in Africa in late December.  Now only 17 of 52 embassies in Africa, which includes 4 in North Africa that are part of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, have ambassadors assigned to the country; 35 ambassadorial positions in Africa are vacant.  The Trump administration has put forward only 4 nominations for ambassador to embassies in Africa--Morocco, Tunisia, Namibia, and South Africa.  All 4 nominees are political appointees.

Deeper China-Somalia Security Ties

 China-Africa Security Radar posted on 1 February 2026 a commentary titled "China and Somalia Signal Deeper Security Ties--but Agency Still Maters."

Ever since breakaway Somaliland exchanged liaison offices with Taiwan, China has been an outspoken supporter of Somalia's territorial integrity and taken increasing steps to expand its security relationship with Mogadishu.  

China-Africa Relations Will Focus on Digital Silk Road

 Memesita, an independent digital news organization based in New York, posted on 1 February 2026 an article titled "China-Africa Relations: Trade, Investment & the Global South (2026)."

The China-Africa relationship in 2026 will not be about concrete and steel but rather silicon and signals.  A revolution is underway driven by digital infrastructure, fintech innovation, and a burgeoning tech ecosystem that is rapidly reshaping the economic and political landscape of the Global South.

China Counters Western Alliances in Global South

 Modern Diplomacy published on 31 January 2026 a commentary titled "How China Courts the Global South to Counter U.S. Alliances" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University in Egypt. 

China is countering Western alliances by drawing on its soft power and economic engagement through the Belt and Road Initiative, rapid military modernization, the formation of counter alliances such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and "gray zone" tactics.  China's goal is to shape a multipolar world order.  

Ethiopia Receives Russian Light Attack Aircraft and UAVs

Defence Web published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Acquires Yak-130 Trainer, Orion-E UAVs from Russia" by Guy Martin.  

The Ethiopian Air Force has acquired the Orion-E unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and the Yak-130 jet trainer and ground attack aircraft from Russia.  

 The Robert Lansing Institute published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "Russia's Arms Exports to Ethiopia and the Erosion of U.S. Leverage in the Horn of Africa."

The article notes that the transfer of Russian drones undermines US efforts to promote standards for responsible use and control over the equipment.

China Expands Military Footprint in Africa

 The African Center for Strategic Studies published on 30 January 2026 a paper titled "China's Military Footprint in Africa Deepens with People's Liberation Army-led BRICS Naval Drills" by Paul Nantulya.  

The January 2026 BRICS Plus naval exercise in South African waters led by China's People's Liberation Army underscored Beijing's use of military power in Africa to advance Chinese geostrategic objectives.  China views BRICS Plus as part of an alternative global security and geopolitical architecture intended to counterbalance Western and US-led initiatives.  

Beijing has invested heavily in securing African participation in Chinese-led global initiatives to enhance its legitimacy, build regional voting blocs, and strengthen China's leverage amid global rivalries.  It accomplishes this through military exercises, naval port calls, creating security architecture, arms sales, and military training.

China Promotes Clean Energy in Africa

 East Asia Forum posted on 30 January 2026 an article titled "'Growing by Greening' and the Future of China-Africa Cooperation" by Xunpeng Shi, University of Technology Sydney, and Muyi Yang, Ember, a global energy think tank.

China's energy projects in Africa have shifted from large fossil fuel investments to solar and wind initiatives.  Nevertheless, there are challenges to the development of green energy that must be addr3ssed.  

Summary of Africa-China Trade

 The Nanyang Technological University published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "China-Africa Trade Hits Record US$348bn as Deficit Balloons."

This is a nice summary of Africa-China trade since 2021, emphasizing increasing Chinese value-added exports to Africa and raw materials dominating African exports to China.  There are structural issues that inhibit African value-added exports to China along with Chinese non-tariff barriers.

The Complexities of the China-Libya Relationship

 The ChinaMed Project published on 30 January 2026 an analysis titled "China and the Libyan Crisis: Maintaining a Foot in the Door in a Changing Region" by Bianca Pasquier and Leonardo Bruni.  

This paper revisits the past decade of Chinese engagement in Libya, tracing Beijing's evolving relations with the country's factions and situating them within a regional context.  It concludes that China is unlikely to engage deeply in Libya's power struggles.  Beijing will likely keep its options open, be present but uncommitted.  

Ethiopia: New Conflict in Tigray Region?

 The Associated Press published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's National Carrier Cancels Flights to Tigray Region as Fears Grow of Renewed Fighting" by Samuel Getachew.  

Beginning on 29 January, Ethiopian Airlines canceled flights to and from Tigray region as fears increased of renewed fighting between federal government and regional Tigray forces, possibly supported by neighboring Eritrea.  

China's Distant-Water Fishing in Indian Ocean Has Multiple Motives

 Mizzima, a non-profit foundation that supports social change and development in Myanmar, published on 28 January 2026 a commentary titled "Weaponising the Trawl: China's Maritime Militia, Distant-Water Fishing, and the Strategic Contest in the Indian Ocean."

Chinese fishing fleets maintain a massive presence in the Indian Ocean region.  What appears on the surface as fishing is, in practice, a grey-zone strategy, blending economic exploitation, intelligence gathering, and coercive presence to reshape the maritime realities without triggering open conflict.

In addition, see Sweekriti Pathak's "Fishing and Force: China's Dark Fleets and Maritime Militias" dated 29 January 2026 published by India's Observer Research Foundation.  

Somaliland Just Became More Complicated

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 29 January 2026 an analysis titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.   

The federal government of Somalia in Mogadishu inaugurated North East state as a federal member state amid political disputes with Somaliland, which has claimed the territory since it declared independence from Somalia in 1991, and the autonomous neighboring state of Puntland, which has claims on parts of North East state.  North East state, which is home to a different clan than the rest of Somaliland, has been a location of periodic conflict for many years.  This situation significantly complicates the situation in Somalia, Somaliland, and Puntland.

Hong Kong Gold Company Acquires Canadian Company with African Assets

 Discovery Alert, an AI -powered mining news publisher, posted on 27 January 2026 an article titled "Zijin Mining's $4 Billion Allied Gold Acquisition Reshapes African Mining" by Muflih Hidayat.  

Hong Kong's Zijin Gold International Company signed an agreement to acquire all outstanding shares in Canadian company Allied Gold for an equity value of about $4 billion in an all-cash deal.  Allied Gold has assets in gold mines in Ethiopia, Mali, and Cote d'Ivoire.  This acquisition represents a sophisticated deployment of Chinese capital in African mining consolidation.

Putin to Attend Third Russia-Africa Summit

 African Initiative published on 27 January 2026 an article titled "Putin to Take Part in Third Russia-Africa Summit in 2026--Ambassador" by Evgeniya Mylnikova.  

Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend the Third Russia-Africa Summit, which will take place at a yet to be named country in Africa during 2026.  

Growing Geopolitical Complexities in Red Sea Region

 Foreign Policy published on 27 January 2026 an article titled "Red Sea Rivalries Risk Unraveling the Horn of Africa" by Cameron Hudson and Liam Karr. 

The civil war in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is increasingly becoming a proxy war for regional players Ethiopia, Eritrea, Egypt, UAE, Turkey, Libya, and Saudi Arabia, among others.  The authors argue it is time for the Trump administration to designate a Senate-confirmed presidential special envoy for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea.