China's Power Projection in the Indian Ocean - 13 November Webinar

 The Africa-China Initiative at Georgetown University is sponsoring a virtual webinar titled China's Power Projection in the Indian Ocean on 13 November from 9:00 - 10:30 am Eastern Standard Time.  I will summarize a chapter on this subject for an upcoming book.  Discussants are Veda Vaidyanathan, Center for Social and Economic Progress, and Paul Nantulya, Africa Center for Strategic Studies.  You must register in advance.  

Impact of China's Zero Tariff Policy in Africa (in French)

 HAL Open Science recently published an upcoming journal article titled "L'Afrique, la Chine et le tarif zero" by Thierry Pairault.  

This article analyses the actual as opposed to theoretical effects of China's zero tariff policy on African exports.  It demonstrates that the spectacular growth in Chinese imports from Africa is driven by extractive commodities that have already entered China duty-free before expanding the policy.

Measurable effects appear only in a few specific agricultural commodities and exclusively in countries with adequate logistical capacity.  Landlocked countries, the stated beneficiaries of the policy, benefit the least.  Chinese zero tariffs, in their current form, are a necessary but insufficient condition for African industrialization or significant increases in exports to China.

Call to Release Eritrean Journalists Held for Many Years

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 10 November 2026 a press release titled "CPJ Demands Answers from Eritrean Authorities on Disappeared Journalists at African Investigative Journalism Conference."

At a journalism conference in Kenya, the Committee to Protect Journalists asked Eritrean authorities to provide proof of life and immediately release 16 Eritrean journalists who have been held for many years.  

Ghana Seeks Chinese Value-Added Mining Investment but not Illegal Miners

 Channel One TV posted on 6 November 2026 an article titled "Ghana Seeks Stronger Mining Ties with China to Boost Local Processing" by Appiah Kubi.

A Ghanaian mining delegation visited China seeking investment to facilitate technology transfer and expand local mineral processing as part of an effort to increase value in the mining sector.

Modern Ghana published on 10 November 2026 an article titled "Minerals Commission Warns Chinese Nationals against Illegal Mining, Threatens 25-year Jail Term" by Muhammed Faisal Mustapha.

Several days later, the Ghana Minerals Commission issued a strong warning to Chinese nationals involved in illegal small-scale mining that they risk lengthy jail terms.  The Commission added that the activities by these Chinese miners are undermining the integrity of the longstanding relationship between Ghana and China.  The Commission called for stronger Chinese cooperation to dismantle the financial, equipment supply, and logistics networks that sustain illegal mining.

US Senate Democrats Urge State Department to Act on Ethiopia

 Semafor published on 11 November 2026 an article titled "Democrats Urge Rubio to Act on Ethiopia" by Adrian Elimian.

Democratic senators sent a letter to the State Department calling for an immediate ceasefire, a new mediation effort, a halt on arms sales to Ethiopia, reinstatement of the Temporary Protected Status for Ethiopians in the United States, and the surging of food aid to Ethiopia.

Update on Fighting in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 10 November 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo and Alexander Brown.

This update covers the fighting in Tigray and Amhara Regions and activity along the Ethiopian-Eritrean border from 6-10 November. 

Russia-Africa Handbook

 Modern Diplomacy published on 9 November 2026 a handbook titled "Putin's African Dream: Part 3" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

This 91-page e-handbook covers Russia's expanding diplomatic relations in Africa, soft power, arms sales, trade, economic relations, nuclear technology, energy, food security, health care, and great power competition.  

US Response to Russia's Engagement in Africa's Sahel Region

 Eurasia Review published on 9 November 2026 a commentary titled "The Head of US Africa Command Says That the Sahel Is 'Putin's Purse'" by Daniel Volman.

General Dagvin Anderson, the head of US Africa Command, recently commented that Africa's Sahel region has become Putin's purse because Russia is extracting gold, uranium and lithium from the countries where the Africa Corps is engaged.  US Africa Command is responding by establishing counterterrorism partnerships with several countries in North and West Africa.  

Chinese Investment and Construction in Sub-Saharan Africa

 The American Enterprise Institute published in November 2026 a study titled "China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Some Facts About Investing and Building" by Ian Jones and Derek Scissors.

This is an important study that concludes China's engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa has pivoted from building infrastructure in populous countries to buying assets in mineral-rich ones, with state-owned enterprises undertaking most of the activity in both cases.

Metals account for 75 percent of investment in 2023-2025 compared to 49 percent in 2005-2025.  State investors predominate, and in 2023-2025, Chinese investment was focused in the DRC, Zambia, Guinea, and Botswana.  Copper attracts the most money.  

Chinese Mine in DRC Sued by Local Residents

 Mining Focus Africa posted on 6 November 2026 an article titled "DRC Residents Sue Chinese-Controlled Copper-Cobalt Mine for $6.3 Million over Alleged Pollution."

Residents living near a Chinese-controlled copper and cobalt mine in the DRC filed a $6.3 million lawsuit against the mine operators, alleging that pollution from its operations damaged their health and the surrounding environment. 

UAE Role in Sudan Conflict

 The New York Times posted on 5 November 2026 an article titled "UAE Sent 'Desert Wolves' to Help Sudanese Militia Accused of Genocide" by Declan Walsh.

The article details UAE support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan's civil war.  It includes access to a confidential report submitted to the UN Security Council last month detailing how an Emirati security company with close ties to the UAE government moved Columbian mercenaries into Sudan through territory controlled by Emirati proxies in Libya and Somalia.  

African Countries Demand More Critical Mineral Processing in Africa, China Accepts

 The South China Morning Post published on 7 November 2026 an article titled "Why China Is Investing Heavily in African Push to Bring Mineral Processing Home" by Jevans Nyabiage.

More African countries are pressing customers for critical minerals to do more processing in Africa to add value rather than extract raw ore.  China says it will support efforts by African countries to increase the number of processing operations there.

Current Military and External Political Situation in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 November 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo and Alexander Brown.

This is an update on the fighting in Tigray and Amhara Regions from 3-6 November.  The federal government imposed a nighttime curfew on Mekele, the capital of Tigray Region.  Chinese envoys met with senior Ethiopian and Eritrean officials to promote dialogue and deescalation.  

South African Exports to China After the Tariff Elimination: Less Than Meets the Eye

 Thierry Pairault posted on 5 November 2026 a brief analysis titled "Ambassador Wu Peng's Little Sums."

China's ambassador to South Africa was extolling the increase in South African exports to China following the elimination of Beijing's tariffs on 1 May 2026.  While there has been a modest increase, it is smaller than it appears.  The ambassador's calculations are in US dollars and fail to take into account the depreciation of the US dollar against the South African rand.

In the case of the increase in South African agricultural exports to China, the currency devaluation accounts for more than 30 percent of the growth in exports.  In addition, the export of chrome ore, which makes up 30 percent of South African exports to China in 2026, have been exempt from China's tariffs since 2001 and have nothing to do with the expanded 1 May tariff exemption.

For the French version of this piece, see "Les petits calculs de l'ambassadeur Wu Peng."

An Analysis of Ethiopian-Eritrean Escalation

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 2 November 2026 an analysis titled "The Ethiopian-Eritrean Escalation: Motives, Scenarios, and Regional Implications."

This paper examines the drivers and strategic dimensions of the Ethiopian-Eritrean escalation.  It explores potential scenarios and assesses their implications for both countries and the wider region.

It argues that Ethiopia's pursuit of access to the sea conflicts with Eritrea's concerns over sovereignty and territorial integrity, making the question of maritime access a central driver of the ongoing crisis.

Ethiopian Media Authorities Crack Down on The Reporter

The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 5 November 2026 a news release titled "Ethiopia Suspends The Reporter Indefinitely in Escalating Assault on Independent Media."

The Committee to Protect Journalists calls on Ethiopian authorities to lift the indefinite suspension of The Reporter, one of the country's oldest independent newspapers.  The Ethiopian Media Authority accused The Reporter of publishing distorted and unbalanced information.  It did not cite any specific report to substantiate its charges.

Comment: Although this matter will probably not result in criticism by the Trump administration, the arrival in early January of a Democratically controlled House of Representatives and Senate may well result in criticism by individual members of Congress and committees that follow developments in Ethiopia.

Violence at Chinese Mine in Zimbabwe

 Nehanda Radio posted on 4 November 2026 an article titled "One Dead, Three Injured as Five Excavators Burn at Shurugwi Mine Linked to Mnangagwa's Son."

One person died and three others were injured during violent clashes on 2 November between artisanal miners and security personnel at a Chinese-owned mine in Zimbabwe.  The son of Zimbabwe's president is a partner with Chinese investors in the mine.

Sudan and Ethiopia: Tit-for-Tat Consulate Closures

Aljazeera published on 4 November 2026 an article titled "Sudan, Ethiopia Shut Each Other's Consulates in Tit-for-Tat Move." 

Ethiopia shut down and expelled diplomats from Sudan's consulate near the Sudanese border in an area where Khartoum accuses Ethiopia of supporting Sudan's dissident paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  In response, Sudan shut down and expelled Ethiopian diplomats from a consulate near the Ethiopian border where Addis Ababa accuses Sudan of supporting rebel movements in Tigray Region.  

Foreign Influence in Africa: Focus on Russia

 Intellinews published on 2 November 2026 an article titled "Russia's Influence in Africa Grows by a Third in a Decade but Stays a Quarter of China's" by Ben Aris.  

The Pardee Institute at the University of Denver maintains a "Bilateral Influence Capacity index." which measures influence on the basis of trade ties, diplomatic connections, security links, and patterns of dependence.

In 2024, China led with an influence capacity score in Africa of 11.4 percent, followed by France at 6.8 percent, the United States at 6.6 percent, UAE at 4.8 percent, Russia at 2.8 percent, and Turkey at 1.5 percent.  Russia rose from 2.2 percent in 2015 and 1 percent in 1995.

Ethiopian-American Pleads Guilty to Passing Classified Information

 The BBC posted on 4 November 2026 an article titled "US Contractor Gave Ethiopia Secrets to Help Kill Tigray Fighters" by Wycliffe Muia.  

An Ethiopian-born American citizen has pleaded guilty to passing highly classified intelligence to Ethiopia to help target and kill Tigrayan fighters during the 2020-2022 Tigray war.  He faces up to 20 years in prison under a plea agreement.  He worked as an IT administrator contractor at the State Department, Justice Department, and the National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for US intelligence satellites.

The Upsurge in Military Drone Strikes in Africa

 The Africa Center for Security Studies published on 28 October 2026 a major study titled "Lessons from Africa's Drone Wars" by Nate Allen.

Africa experienced an upsurge in drone strikes during the period 2022-2026.  Most of the strikes took place in Mali, Sudan, Ethiopia, DRC, and Somalia.  The major providers of long endurance drones to Africa are Turkey, China, and Israel.  The largest recipients of long endurance drones are Algeria, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Morocco, Egypt, and Libya.

Update on Situation in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 3 November 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo and Alexander Brown.

This update covers military and regional developments in Ethiopia from 30 October through 3 November.  The focus is on Amhara and Tigray Regions and especially the Ethiopia-Eritrea border area.

The Case for Ethiopian Access to the Red Sea

 Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs posted on 2 November 2026 a paper titled "A Civilizational Case for Maritime Access.  Perspectives from the 12th Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa" by Miftah Mohammed Kemal.

Ethiopia considers access to the sea an existential issue.  This document explains why Ethiopia holds this position.  At the same time, its leadership says it will pursue maritime access "through dialogue and mutual benefit."

China Trains Tanzanian Media Personnel

 Xinhua published on 2 November 2026 an article titled "Chinese Experts Train Tanzanian Media Professionals in AI Applications." 

China's National Radio and Television Administration held a two-day program in Dar es Salaam for 30 Tanzanian media professionals to strengthen digital skills, improve content production, explore new business opportunities, generate AI in media production, and promote joint storytelling between China and Africa.

Comment:  This is part of a long-standing and comprehensive Chinese soft power program to cultivate African media personnel, introduce Chinese equipment, and promote Chinese standards and models. 

What Does Russia Hope to Achieve in Africa?

 Deutsche Welle published on 28 October 2026 an article titled "Russia in Africa: What Does the Kremlin Hope to Achieve?" by Oleg Loginov.

Russia has important economic ties with Egypt but with few other African countries.  Moscow is preparing to compete in the critical minerals sector and Russian mercenaries support African regimes in several Sahel countries.  Russia remains a major supplier of arms to African countries and is an important source of fertilizer and grains.