Conflict between Ethiopian Nationalism and Regionalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 25 June 2025 a commentary titled "Othering in Disguise: Nationalism, Regionalism, and the Search for Civic Belonging in Ethiopia" by Daniel Hailu, a multidisciplinary researcher.  

The author argues that Ethiopia's political landscape is shaped by two powerful, often contradictory forces: nationalism, which unites people under a shared identity, and regionalism or federalism, which seeks to empower marginalized groups through autonomy.  But within both "isms" is a tendency to define oneself by negating the other.  To build enduring unity, Ethiopia must cultivate a culture where identity is not weaponized.  

Is Ethiopia's Disintegration Inevitable?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 January 2024 a commentary titled "Is Ethiopia's Disintegration an Inevitable and Necessary Evil?" by Hambisa Belina, Morgan State University.

The author begins by stating that "the real question is not if Ethiopia will disintegrate, but when and how."  He argues that the international community should help organize "a smooth and orderly birthing of new democratic states."  He adds: "Although the immense obstacles to achieving a peaceful disintegration must be recognized, they are not insurmountable if external actors support such a process."

Comment:  It appears that the author bases his analysis largely on Ethiopia's post-World War II history and tends to ignore the previous 2,000 years.  While Ethiopia is a deeply troubled country today and possibly at a crossroads, there is no inevitability about its disintegration.  It has weathered equally difficult periods in the past, albeit not with the same international borders as today.  The idea that outside powers could help birth an undetermined number of independent, economically viable, democratic states strikes me as fantasy.  

Behind Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping

 World Politics Review published on 3 January 2024 an analysis titled "The Houthis Mean Business in the Red Sea" by Alexander Clarkson, King's College London.  

This is an excellent background piece to ongoing Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.  The Houthis have demonstrated ruthless pragmatism.  At the same time, a movement that is willing to risk direct confrontation with the US and UK over a relatively distant conflict between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to prioritize economic concerns over goals that are even more directly embedded in its ideological worldview.  

Ethiopia: Oromia and Ethnic Nationalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 January 2024 a commentary titled "Peace in Ethiopia's Oromia Will Only Come Through Genuine Self-rule" by Ermias Tasfaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter living in Burayu, Oromia.

This is a detailed, if complex, discussion of the politics of Oromia that offers suggestions for dealing with the current conflicts, which seem to be dominated by extreme ethnic nationalism among Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.  

Ethiopia Is at War with Itself

 Ethiopia Insight published on 14 August 2023 a commentary titled "Five Reasons Why Ethiopia Is at War with Itself, Again" by an Ethiopia Insight columnist.

Former Ethiopian allies are today in conflict and unable to resolve their differences peacefully.  This conflict is in danger of sinking into another round of atrocities.

China's Wolf Warrior II and Its Meaning for Africa

 The Conversation published on 1 September 2022 a commentary titled "Wolf Warrior II: What the Blockbuster Movie Tells Us about China's Views on Africa" by Yu Xiang, Shanghai University, and Jinpu Wang, Syracuse University. 

The 2017 film tells the story of an exiled elite Chinese soldier who travels to an unnamed African country and gets caught in the middle of a civil war between government troops and mercenaries.  The hero rescues African and Chinese civilians and defeats the mercenaries.  China is portrayed as a beacon of hope, development, and peace in Africa.

The authors note that it has been five years since the release of Wolf Warrior II.  Yet the nationalism and racism in the film have not faded within China.  Indeed they have grown stronger, especially on social media in China.

Ethiopia: The Dispute over Western Tigray

 Ethiopia Insight published on 3 August 2022 a commentary titled "Under Ethiopia's Federal System, Western Tigray Belongs in Tigray" by Abel Tesfaye.  

This commentary makes the argument that Western Tigray is and should remain part of Tigray Region and not Amhara Region.  

Christian Nationalism Is Tearing Ethiopia Apart

 Foreign Policy published on 18 June 2022 a commentary titled "Christian Nationalism Is Tearing Ethiopia Apart" by Andrew DeCort.

Evangelicalism is exploding in Ethiopia today.  The Evangelicals see Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as the 7th King or at least a useful tool for their ambitions.  The author concluded that in his two decades studying and working in Ethiopia he has "never seen such bitter hatred and raw hopelessness."  He fears that violence on the scale of Rwanda could erupt.  

Ethiopia: Analysis of Abiy Ahmed's Power Base

 Ethiopia Insight published on 14 June 2022 a commentary titled "Abiy Ahmed's Power Base Is More Fragile than Ever" by Patrick Wight, senior editor of Ethiopia Insight.

The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may have to reach a compromise with Tigray Region, thus angering Amhara Region and Eritrean leader Isaias Afewerki.

Oromia and the Southern Regions in Ethiopia's Conflict

 Foreign Policy posted on 25 January 2022 a commentary titled "How Abiy Ahmed Betrayed Oromia and Endangered Ethiopia" by Milkessa M. Gemechu, Albion College and a former official in Oromia.  

The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has sought to crush the nationalist movement in Oromia and, as a result, lost much Oromo support.  The international community has only focused on the situation in northern Ethiopia between Tigray and the central government.  Any agreement between Abiy and the TPLF-led government in Tigray region will fail to achieve peace in Ethiopia unless it takes into account the concerns of Oromia and the southern regions.  

Threats to Ethiopia's Economy

 Responsible Statecraft, online magazine of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, published on 19 January 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Needs More than Peace Talks" by Alex de Waal.  

The author concluded that Ethiopia needs a rescue package to prevent galloping inflation, restructure its debts, and keep the economy functioning.  Donors will not solve these problems if Ethiopia continues to spend its foreign exchange on the war.  The only donors with the ability to achieve these goals are Western countries and international financial institutions.   

Putting the Horn of Africa Back Together

 The International Crisis Group posted on 23 December 2021 a 36-minute podcast titled "Putting the Horn of Africa Back Together" with Charles Onyango-Obbo, Ugandan journalist, Betty Kaari Murungi, Kenyan lawyer, and Harry Verhoeven, Columbia University.

The podcast asks if there is any way to reverse the political fragmentation in the Horn of Africa and to build a lasting order that can stem continuing conflict.  The Intergovernmental Authority on Development seems to be totally ineffective in the current situation, and there is no indication that it can step forward to solve these security issues.  

Ethiopia: Ethnic Issues Beyond Tigray

 The International Crisis Group broadcast on 4 December 2020 a 28 minute podcast titled "As Conflicts Mount, Where Does Ethiopia Go from Here?" with Adem Kassie Abebe, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

Numerous cases of ethnic violence continue in Ethiopia that extend well beyond Tigray Region.  The author believes the overriding issue in Ethiopia today is the conflict between ethnic federalism and pan-Ethiopianism.  Abiy Ahmed, he argues, is trying to occupy the  middle ground between these two philosophies although his opponents see him in the pan-Ethiopian camp.  

Ethiopia: A Way Forward for Amhara Nationalism

Ethiopia Insight posted on 1 September 2020 a commentary titled "Shaping Amhara Nationalism for a Better Ethiopia" by Zola Moges, who works on human rights for an international organization.

The author argues that for Amhara nationalism to make a meaningful contribution, it needs to clearly set out its main objectives and have a proper ideological fulcrum.  It should be built on pride, popular self-esteem, and love rather than hatred and resentment.  

Ethnic Conflict in Ethiopia

Aljazeera's Inside Story did a half hour program on Ethiopia on 4 July 2020 titled "Can Ethiopia Bridge Its Ethnic Divide?"

The panelists were Laetitia Bader, Human Rights Watch, Awol Allo, Keele University in the UK, and myself. 

Ethiopian Politics: Federalist or National Political Parties?

Ethiopia Insight published on 20 February 2020 a commentary titled "We Need to Come Together--But Not Inside Prosperity Party's Straitjacket" by Mister Sew, a pseudonym.

The author argues that Abiy Ahmed's national Prosperity Party is not the answer. The presence of strong federalist parties is not only desirable but essential.

Ethiopia: Moving beyond Ethnic Politics

Foreign Policy posted on 8 November 2019 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Will Explode If It Doesn't Move Beyond Ethnic-based Politics" by Addisu Lashitew, Brookings Institution.

The author argues that in order to keep the country together, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed needs to convince various ethnic groups that he and his new party represent all Ethiopians.

Ethiopia: Revolutionary Democracy versus Liberal Democracy

Ethiopia Insight published on 3 November 2019 a commentary titled "Liberal Democracy Is No Liberator" by Emmanuel Yirdaw, an undergraduate student at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

The author compares Meles Zenawi's revolutionary democracy with Abiy Ahmed's liberal democracy but seems to be skeptical that liberal democracy will correct the glaring mistakes of revolutionary democracy.

Musing on Ethiopian Politics

Ethiopia Insight posted on 24 July 2019 a long commentary titled "Election in End Times" by Alemayehu Weldemariam, a specialist in constitutional law and political theory.

The author argues better that Ethiopia hold a sham election in 2020 than no election at all. The choice is between civil war and peace.

Ethiopia after the Assassinations

The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 25 June 2019 a commentary titled "Restoring Calm in Ethiopia after High-profile Assassinations."

The ICG lays out several steps that it says the Ethiopian government and EPRDF need to take to restore calm in the country.