Ethiopia Insight published on 7 April 2023 a commentary titled "As Ethiopian Alliances Shift, Abiy's Anniversary Met by Amhara Protests and Violence" by Abel Tesfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.
Protests broke out across Amhara Region over a number of decisions by the Abiy Ahmed government, including its effort to disband regional militia forces and integrate them into the central government army.
Ventures posted on 15 February 2023 a commentary titled "A Nobel Peace Prize and Spates of Conflicts: How Ethiopia's Conflicts Reimage Abiy Ahmed's Regime" by Ishioma Imokhai-Bello.
The author tracks Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's leadership from a promising beginning to a phase filled with conflict.
Ethiopia Insight published on 26 June 2022 a commentary titled "Jawar Mohammed: From 'la Luta Continua' to Peace Preacher" by Ermias Tasfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.
The government of Ethiopia released from prison early this year Jawar Mohammed, outspoken Oromo nationalist and political activist. On the few occasions that he as spoken since his release, he has encouraged a democratic and unified Ethiopia. He called for preserving the territorial integrity of Ethiopia, democratization of the political system, creation of an inclusive political community, and making Ethiopia a home for everyone.
Ethiopia Insight published on 14 June 2022 a commentary titled "Abiy Ahmed's Power Base Is More Fragile than Ever" by Patrick Wight, senior editor of Ethiopia Insight.
The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may have to reach a compromise with Tigray Region, thus angering Amhara Region and Eritrean leader Isaias Afewerki.
Foreign Policy posted on 25 January 2022 a commentary titled "How Abiy Ahmed Betrayed Oromia and Endangered Ethiopia" by Milkessa M. Gemechu, Albion College and a former official in Oromia.
The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has sought to crush the nationalist movement in Oromia and, as a result, lost much Oromo support. The international community has only focused on the situation in northern Ethiopia between Tigray and the central government. Any agreement between Abiy and the TPLF-led government in Tigray region will fail to achieve peace in Ethiopia unless it takes into account the concerns of Oromia and the southern regions.
Responsible Statecraft, online magazine of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, published on 19 January 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Needs More than Peace Talks" by Alex de Waal.
The author concluded that Ethiopia needs a rescue package to prevent galloping inflation, restructure its debts, and keep the economy functioning. Donors will not solve these problems if Ethiopia continues to spend its foreign exchange on the war. The only donors with the ability to achieve these goals are Western countries and international financial institutions.
The New York Times published on 7 January 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia Frees Prominent Political Prisoners, Calls for Reconciliation" by Declan Walsh.
The government of Ethiopia said the recent release of prominent political prisoners will "pave the way for a lasting solution to Ethiopia's problems in a peaceful, non-violent way" through a national dialogue. There were, however, no details concerning the national dialogue process.
The Associated Press published on 7 January 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia Grants Amnesty to High-profile Political Detainees."
Ethiopia announced on 7 January that it had granted amnesty to opposition figures Jawar Mohammed and Eskinder Nega. The government said several senior TPLF officials would also be released soon, taking into account their age and health condition. This development gives some hope that a national political dialogue could follow.
Ethiopia Insight published on 19 August 2021 a detailed commentary titled "EIEP: Prosperity Party's Win Is a Loss for Oromia--and Ethiopia" by Ermias Tasfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter who lives in Oromia.
The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has failed to reconcile Ethiopia and Oromo political identities and so failed to live up to his own promises. The commentary focuses on the competing views in Oromia of support for Oromo nationalism versus pan-Ethiopianism.
Ethiopia Insight published on 2 August 2021 an analysis titled "Dire Dawa's Dilemma: Sharing Power in Ethiopia's Eastern Melting Pot" by an anonymous author.
Dire Dawa hosts significant numbers of Oromo, Somali, and Amhara and presents a challenge for power sharing. Numerous political parties are active in the federal district.
Ethiopia Insight posted on 7 April 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Oromo Youth Are Disaffected--But also Divided, Coopted, and Demoralized" by an anonymous person who lives in Ginchi.
The author argues that ideological splits among Oromo youth help explain why renewed Oromo discontent is not leading to a resurgent uprising.
Ethiopia Insight posted on 17 February 2021 a commentary titled "Trial Stutters as Bekele, Jawar et al's Hunger Strike Triggers Protests."
Ethiopia Insight warns that the hunger strike by jailed members of the political opposition could lead to growing political protests.
Ethiopia Insight posted on 4 January 2021 a commentary titled "The Counter-productive Demonization of Jawar Mohammed" by Hambisa Belina, an ordained pastor in the Evangelical Lutheran Church in the United States.
Oromo activist, Jawar Mohammed, was arrested in July 2020 and remains in prison in Ethiopia. The author argues that imprisonment, demonization, and assassination do not solve political problems. The solution is inclusive dialogue that includes Jawar Mohammed and all other prominent political prisoners.
World Politics Review published on 8 December 2020 an analysis titled "How Abiy's Effort to Redefine Ethiopia Led to War in Tigray" by Tom Gardner, the Addis Ababa correspondent for the Economist.
In a balanced account, the author says the current conflict is not just about power and wealth but a reckoning over Ethiopia's recent past and a contest to determine its future.
He concludes that Ethiopia's future may look like episodes from its past, including the civil war that ushered the EPRDF into power in 1991: a pitiless struggle that ended only when a victor emerged who could exercise effective hegemony. This may deliver what political scientists call an "imposed settlement," and with it, a measure of stability. But the danger is that such a resolution could sow the seeds of grievance from which the next round of violence will one day emerge.
The Los Angeles Times published on 6 December 2020 an article titled "In Ethiopia, a Nobel Peace Laureate Goes to War" by Jacob Kushner.
This article focuses on the background of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his rise to power in Ethiopia.
Al Jazeera released on 8 October 2020 a 25 minute podcast titled "The Battle for Ethiopia: People and Power."
It looks at the challenges facing Ethiopia today, especially ethnic nationalism.
The Washington Post posted on 9 October 2020 an article titled "One Year after Abiy Ahmed's Nobel Peace Prize, Ethiopia's Crises Are Multiplying" by Max Bearak.
The author notes that Ethiopia is more troubled one year after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize.
This week the Nobel Committee awarded the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize to an organization--the World Food Program. Probably a safer bet.
Ethiopia Insight posted on 25 September 2020 an article titled "Ethiopian Prosecutors Charge Jawar with Training Terror Group in Egypt" by Leul Estifanos, freelance court reporter.
Ethiopian federal prosecutors charged opposition Oromo Federalist Congress leader Jawar Mohammed and 23 others with ten crimes including training a terrorist group in Egypt with the intention of toppling the Ethiopian government by force. The author detailed the charges without commenting on them.
Ethiopia Insight posted on 7 September 2020 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Reform Rollback Creates a Vicious Circle" by Mebretu Kelecha, University of Westminster.
The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has failed to move Ethiopia onto an unambiguously democratic path.
The BBC News posted on 4 September 2020 a story titled "Why There Are Fears that Ethiopia Could Break Up" by Desta Gebremedhin.
The postponement of national elections while they still go forward in Tigray Region, raising concern this may be the first step towards secession, increasing ethnic nationalism throughout the country, and the large number of political arrests by the Abiy Ahmed government, pose serious challenges to the unity of Ethiopia.
I have argued in recent months that Ethiopia has the history, experience, and the capacity to "muddle through" this crisis, but the growing challenges now suggest I could be wrong unless the "better angels" in all political factions step forward soon to preserve the unity of the nation.
