Ethiopian Eritrean Rivalry

 African Arguments published on 20 September 2026 a commentary titled "The Rivalry Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Is Reshaping Tigray" by Mebratu Kelecha.

Since the 2020-2022 war between Tigray region and the Ethiopian central government, political alignments have changed dramatically.  Eritrea, which was aligned with central government forces during the war, is now aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael and elements of the Amhara Fano militia in opposition to the central government. 

Rebel Coalition Forms in Ethiopia

 The BBC posted on 21 September 2026 an article titled "Seven Ethiopia Rebel Groups Form New Alliance" by Michael Teferi and Basillioh Rukanga.

The Fano militia in Amhara region, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and four smaller organizations in Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions have created a coalition named Alliance for Survival to oppose the Abiy Ahmed government.

Permanent Conflict in the Horn of Africa

 African Arguments published on 16 September 2026 a commentary titled "The Horn of Africa's Age of Permanent Conflict" by Matthew de Waal.

Foreign patrons have progressively co-opted economic and military architecture in the Horn of Africa.  The Horn now faces a transformed conflict system in which the boundaries of war and peace, state and non-state, and domestic and external are breaking down.  Drones have exacerbated the situation.

This is not a passing phase of instability but a structural recalibration of politics, with wars becoming harder to contain, distinguish from peace, and end.

Ethiopia: The Failure of Tigrayan Nationalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 September 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray's Liberation Must End in Freedom" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare.

The author concludes that Tigrayan nationalism has failed not because it lacks the capacity to mobilize a people in defense of its survival but because it has never converted mobilization into a political order that citizens, rather than a party or battlefield command, actually govern.

Ethiopia's Air War Against Tigray Region

 The Economist posted on 3 September 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Undeclared Drone War." 

Beginning in late August, the federal government of Ethiopia launched an air war using drones and aircraft against the Tigray People's Liberation Front in Tigray Region.  Neither side seems interested in peace talks, although a ground war appears unlikely.

Ethiopian Military Launches Drones on Tigray Region

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 27 August 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.

The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has conducted numerous drone strikes targeting Mekele, the capital, and other parts of Tigray Region.  There was large-scale fighting in Western Tigray on 1 August between the ENDF and the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  

Ethiopia: Is Tigray Following the Eritrean Example?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 August 2026 a commentary titled "The Eritrea Script Exposes Ethiopia's Unity Farce" by Asfaw Gedamu, independent writer.

This is a critique of the National Dialogue process now underway in Ethiopia, and especially the absence of Tigray from the Dialogue.  The author discusses the increasing distance between Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia and draws parallels with Eritrean independence.  He concludes that the argument for Tigray remaining within the federation is becoming harder to sustain.   

Ethiopia: Review of Fighting in Western Tigray

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Tigray on the Precipice" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces engaged in western Tigray on 1 August, each accusing the other of initiating the conflict.  The battle ended quickly but tension remains high in the region.  

Ethiopians Flee Western Tigray into Sudan

 Radio France Internationale posted on 3 August 2026 an article titled "Hundreds Flee Ethiopia to War-torn Sudan Following New Fighting in Tigray."

Hundreds of Ethiopians fled to Sudan following the outbreak of conflict on 1 August between federal government troops and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in western Tigray region.  They joined thousands of Ethiopian refugees inside Sudan from the 2020-2022 war between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF.

Youth and Social Media Challenge Authority in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray's Youth Are Breaking the TPLF's Narrative Monopoly" by Asmelash Yohannes Teklu.

The rise of social media in Tigray region of Ethiopia is challenging the Tigray People's Liberation Front's control of information.  Young Tigrayans are rejecting attempts to drag Tigray into another destructive conflict.  They are confronting the TPLF in ways that would have been unimaginable a decade ago.

An Analysis of Ethiopia's Parliamentary Elections

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 July 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Seventh Elections: Challenges of Internal Stability and Repercussions on Regional Politics."

The huge victory by the ruling Prosperity Party in Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections did not resolve the crisis of political legitimacy, as the electoral process remained characterized by a precarious security environment, inequitable competition, and a significant lack of voter turnout in numerous regions.

Ethiopia Not Concerned About Counter Alliance

The Sudan Tribune published on 8 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Faces No Threat from Regional Alliance, PM Abiy Says." 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dismissed concerns over an alleged growing alliance of Eritrea, Sudan, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, noting that his country is improving its defensive capabilities.

Ethiopia: What Next after Abiy Ahmed's Election Victory?

 African Business published on 23 June 2026 an article titled "Where Next for Ethiopia after Abiy Ahmed's Landslide?" by Harry Clynch.

Following the landslide victory by Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party in national elections, the article suggests Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will push for deeper centralization of government power, an acceleration of economic reform, and a continuing effort to obtain access to the sea for landlocked Ethiopia.

Ethiopia: TPLF Issues New Controversial Proclamation

 Ethiopia Insight published on 23 June 2026 a commentary titled "TPLF's New Proclamation Codifies a Police State" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare.  

The author dissects a new Tigray People's Liberation Front 42-page proclamation that imposes compulsory mobilization and establishes wartime institutions under presidential command.  He concludes the proclamation should be withdrawn before it becomes "a machinery of fear" over the Tigrayan people.   

The Ethiopian-Egyptian Cold War

 Fronts, an independent online news source owned by a privately held Czech company, posted on 15 June 2026 a commentary titled "The Egypt-Ethiopia Cold War Is Key to the Horn's Growing Conflicts" by Liam Karr.

The author suggests a "cold war" between Ethiopia and Egypt is a battle for regional dominance, touches nearly every conflict in the Horn of Africa, and is fueling tensions in an already unstable region.  Control over Nile waters and landlocked Ethiopia's desire to obtain access to the sea loom large in this cold war.

Ethiopian Politics after the 2026 National Elections

 Abren, a group of Ethiopian Americans in the Washington area, posted on 18 June 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Road Ahead: Politics After the 2026 Election."

This commentary provides an overview of the national elections that took place in Ethiopia earlier this month.  It assumes a landslide victory for Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party but highlights several problems that occurred during the elections.  Abren predicts the acceleration of market liberalization and a continuing effort by the government to obtain access to the sea.  

Ethiopia Expels French Journalist

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 12 June 2026 a press release titled "Ethiopia Expels French Journalist Augustine Passilly after Reporting Trip to Tigray."

Following a reporting trip to Ethiopia's Tigray Region, Ethiopian authorities expelled Augustine Passilly, La Croix newspaper's Ethiopia correspondent since September 2023.  

Censorship in Runup to Ethiopia's Elections

 The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 29 May 2026 an article titled "'Under the Shadow of Fear': Censorship Is Ethiopia's Real Election Story, Journalists Say."

Intimidation of the press is becoming the norm in the runup to Ethiopia's national elections.  Numerous reporters have experienced a variety of challenges as they attempt to cover the elections. 

Implementation of Pretoria Agreement Needed to Avoid New Conflict in Tigray

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 May 2026 a commentary titled "Pretoria's Unfinished Peace Is Fueling Tigray's New Crisis" by Fikru Kidane, a Tigrayan analyst living in the United States.

The new tensions in Tigray Region are rooted in the aftermath of the Pretoria Agreement that ended the last war in Tigray.  Key elements of the agreement remain unimplemented.  The author argues that pressure to engage in new dialogue does not replace the need to put pressure on all parties to implement the Pretoria Agreement.

Ethiopia's Tigray Tinderbox

The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 27 May 2026 a commentary titled "Flashpoint: Ethiopia's Tigray Tinderbox" by Comfort Ero. 

ICG President Comfort Ero warns that federal Ethiopian and Tigrayan troops are on the verge of a return to conflict, which could quickly spread to neighboring Eritrea and Sudan.