Podcast on Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict

 The International Crisis Group posted on 13 October 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea, On the Cusp of War" with Alan Boswell and Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.

The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) is gaining control over larger parts of Tigray Region while the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has faced reversals and appears to be moving towards asymmetric warfare.  The TPLF is more divided today that it was during the 2020-2022 Tigray war.

There are credible reports that the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) have joined the TPLF in Tigray Region and it will now be difficult to convince the ENDF to stop pursuing both the TPLF and the EDF anywhere inside Ethiopia   It is less clear how extensive is the EDF incursion into Ethiopia.  Should this result in an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, geography and military capacity favor Ethiopia.  In the event of war, external support for both sides is problematic.  Eritrea might get some assistance from Egypt.

It is important for external powers to encourage both sides to deescalate the situation.  Eventually there needs to be dialogue between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  The existence of external actors with separate agendas makes dialogue and a peaceful resolution of the dispute more difficult.  

Preventing All-Out Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict

 The International Crisis Group posted on 12 October 2026 a commentary titled "Pulling Ethiopia and Eritrea Back from War."

As Ethiopia and Eritrea slide closer to war, the International Crisis Group urges regional governments and those further away to press both sides to avoid escalation.  It also seeks more engagement by the UN Security Council.

Ethiopia War Update

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Liam Karr.

This is a summary of the fighting in Ethiopia as of 9 October.

Are Ethiopia and Eritrea Close to All-Out War?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 9 October 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "How Close Are Ethiopia and Eritrea to All-out War?" with Richard Atwood and Alan Boswell.

Eritrean Defense Forces are aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front forces against the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and an opposition Tigrayan contingent.  The war in Tigray Region is nearing the Ethiopia-Eritrea border as ENDF troops advance and raises the possibility of extending into Eritrea.

Landlocked Ethiopia remains committed to obtaining permanent access to the Red Sea, although Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says he will seek maritime access through negotiation and not force. Does the war in Tigray change the equation? 

Ethiopian Drones Attack Eritrean Troops in Ethiopia

 The Guardian published on 8 October 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Launches Drone Attack against Eritrean Troops Who Crossed into Tigray" by Rachel Savage.

Eritrean Defense Forces crossing into Ethiopia in support of a Tigrayan rebel force have been targeted by drones launched by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces as the conflict expands.

Attention Turns to Red Sea Conflicts

 World Politics Review posted on 8 October 2026 a commentary titled "The Red Sea Is the New Epicenter of Conflict in the Middle East" by Frida Ghitis.

While the Strait of Hormuz continues to be the focus of attention, the economically vital Red Sea with conflicts raging on both sides of the waterway could erupt into an out-of-control wildfire with global repercussions.

Update on Fighting in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review."

This report summarizes the fighting in Ethiopia between 2 October and 6 October.  The Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) have taken significant territory in Tigray Region and launched airstrikes on towns still held by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).  The Fano militia continues to pose challenges to the ENDF in Amhara Region. The magnitude of Eritrean Defense Force engagement in support of the TPLF is unclear.  

Ethiopian Government Forces Take Control of Tigray Region Capital

 Aljazeera published on 4 October 2026 an article titled "Ethiopian Government Forces Seize Tigray Capital Mekelle as TPLF Withdraw."

Ethiopian National Defense Forces and an allied Tigrayan militia took control of Mekelle, capital of Tigray Region, as Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) forces abandoned the city.  Although Ethiopia charged that Egypt supported TPLF forces in Tigray, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi called for dialogue not confrontation in Ethiopia.

Status of Fighting in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo.  

Ethiopian federal forces have almost completely reversed Afar and Tigrayan rebel gains in Afar Region.  They have also continued advancing on main roads toward Mekele, capital of Tigray Region.  Rebel forces have launched drone strikes on federal facilities in the vicinity of Addis Ababa and elsewhere.

Ethiopian Conflict Contributes to Regional Chaos

 The American Security Project posted on 2 October 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Next War Is Set to Cause Regional Chaos" by Joshua Perez.

The author concludes that expanding conflict in Ethiopia could spark a regional war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan.  Access to arms, especially drones, is feeding the problem.  The window for peace, although not closed, is narrowing.

Ethiopian Maps and Disinformation

 The Conversation published on 24 September 2026 a commentary titled "Maps Can Be Misleading--On Purpose--and Their Story Becomes History.  The Case of Ethiopia" by Daniel Waktola.

The author explains how maps on Ethiopian social media and in school textbooks inflated boundaries and engaged in outright disinformation, a practice known as maptivism.  These inaccurate maps then become evidence about who belongs where, who governs where, and who owns what.  

Ethiopian Conflict Threatens to Engulf the Region

 Foreign Policy published on 30 September 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Return to War Threatens to Engulf the Horn of Africa" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.  

Ethiopia is facing a new civil war as a powerful El Nino threatens crop production in the country.  The author argues that Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan could be drawn in to the conflict.  

Status of Conflict in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 1 October 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Counteroffensive into Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Ethiopian National Defense Force repelled the rebel offensive in northern Ethiopia and launched a counteroffensive aimed at Mekele, capital of Tigray Region.  Rebel forces continue to control parts of Afar Region's northernmost zone.

Update on Fighting in Ethiopia

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 29 September 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo.

Rebel Tigray and Afar forces advanced in northern Afar region while the Ethiopian National Defense Forces reversed rebel Tigray and Amhara force advances around southern Tigray Region.  Ethiopia accused Egypt, Eritrea, and the Sudan Armed Forces of supporting the rebel coalition.

Current Situation in Ethiopia

 Journalist Martin Plaut posted on 28 September 2026 a summary titled "A Brief Update on Ethiopia's 2026 War."

Fighting is escalating in Ethiopia.  On the Afar front, Tigray Defense Forces and allied Afar militants have gained the upper hand.  The military situation remains fluid along the Amhara-Tigray front.  Eritrean forces have established an alliance with the ruling party in Tigray.  Regional alliances are in flux.

Senate Democrats Press Trump Administration on Conflict in Ethiopia

 Semafor published on 28 September 2026 an article titled "Democrats Press Trump Administration to Intervene in Ethiopia" by Adrian Elimian.

All Democratic members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Africa panel criticized both sides of the conflict in Ethiopia and faulted the Trump administration for letting sanctions on regional actors lapse days before hostilities resumed.

Ethiopian Rebels Launch Major Offensive

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 24 September 2026 an article titled "Ethiopian Rebels Launch Major Offensive" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched an offensive against federal forces in northern Ethiopia.  The fighting has expanded to the Tigray/Afar border region.  The offensive likely aims to consolidate the TPLF's control of Tigray region and its rear supply lines.

Avoiding a New War in Northern Ethiopia

 The International Crisis Group published on 25 September 2026 a commentary titled "Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia."

Ethiopia's Tigray Region is slipping into renewed war between the Tigray People's Liberation Front and Amhara Fano militias, on one side, and the federal government and allied Tigrayan forces on the other.  Fighting is concentrated in the Amhara-southern Tigray border area and along the Tigray-Afar border.  The situation could escalate out of control.

Conflict Escalates in Ethiopia

 Aljazeera published on 24 September 2026 an article titled "Fighting Widens across Ethiopia as Tigray Clashes Escalate" by Faisal Ali.

Officials in Ethiopia's Tigray Region claim federal government troops have launched a "full-scale offensive" against it while the central government charges that the Tigray People's Liberation Front launched the attack.  Whatever the case, the security situation in Tigray Region and neighboring territory has deteriorated.

Ethiopian Eritrean Rivalry

 African Arguments published on 20 September 2026 a commentary titled "The Rivalry Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Is Reshaping Tigray" by Mebratu Kelecha.

Since the 2020-2022 war between Tigray region and the Ethiopian central government, political alignments have changed dramatically.  Eritrea, which was aligned with central government forces during the war, is now aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael and elements of the Amhara Fano militia in opposition to the central government.