The International Crisis Group posted on 13 October 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea, On the Cusp of War" with Alan Boswell and Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.
The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) is gaining control over larger parts of Tigray Region while the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has faced reversals and appears to be moving towards asymmetric warfare. The TPLF is more divided today that it was during the 2020-2022 Tigray war.
There are credible reports that the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) have joined the TPLF in Tigray Region and it will now be difficult to convince the ENDF to stop pursuing both the TPLF and the EDF anywhere inside Ethiopia It is less clear how extensive is the EDF incursion into Ethiopia. Should this result in an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, geography and military capacity favor Ethiopia. In the event of war, external support for both sides is problematic. Eritrea might get some assistance from Egypt.
It is important for external powers to encourage both sides to deescalate the situation. Eventually there needs to be dialogue between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The existence of external actors with separate agendas makes dialogue and a peaceful resolution of the dispute more difficult.
