Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 10 July 2026 a 40-minute podcast titled "Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?" with Alan Boswell and Payton Knopf, Dialogue Advisory Group and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.  

They discuss the background and status of the Pretoria Agreement and the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  They look at how unresolved disputes over territory, Tigray's federal status, internal divisions, and worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could push the region back toward war.  They also unpack why escalating regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, could make a renewed conflict even more explosive, why full-scale war is not inevitable, and what practical off ramps still remain.

Implementation of Pretoria Agreement Needed to Avoid New Conflict in Tigray

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 May 2026 a commentary titled "Pretoria's Unfinished Peace Is Fueling Tigray's New Crisis" by Fikru Kidane, a Tigrayan analyst living in the United States.

The new tensions in Tigray Region are rooted in the aftermath of the Pretoria Agreement that ended the last war in Tigray.  Key elements of the agreement remain unimplemented.  The author argues that pressure to engage in new dialogue does not replace the need to put pressure on all parties to implement the Pretoria Agreement.

Ethiopia: Failure of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 May 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Turned Pretoria into Abiy's Shield" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.

This account provides one interpretation for the failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement in a manner that ends conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  

Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray Region Has Wide Implications

 The International Crisis Group published on 15 May 2026 an analysis titled "Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray: Averting a Return to War" by Magnus Taylor.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of Debretsion Gebremichael has seized control of the federal government supported Tigrayan administration in Mekele in a power grab.  This is a direct challenge to the federal government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.  

The situation is further complicated because the TPLF has the support of neighboring Eritrea and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) government in Khartoum.  For its part, the Abiy Ahmed government has been supportive of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, which is engaged in a civil war with the SAF.  Egypt may also join the fray on the side of the TPLF in order to complicate life for Addis Ababa as it builds dams on the Blue Nile, raising concerns in Cairo.  

Rising Tension in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 7 May 2026 an article titled "TPLF Takes Control of Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The Tigray People's Liberation Front reinstated the pre-Tigray war regional government, effectively voiding the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022.  This action creates a rival body to replace the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA).  It also sets up a showdown with the Ethiopian federal government, which supports the TIA, and increases the risk of military confrontation.  

Ethiopian Prime Minister Quietly Manipulates Political Forces in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 April 2026 a commentary titled "Abiy Is Quietly Dismantling Tigray" by Asmelash Yohannes Teklu, former senior advisor at the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. 

The Tigray People's Liberation Front bears responsibility for its internal fractures, which the federal government is using to its advantage.  As a result, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has secured outcomes through quiet, calculated maneuvering that advance his strategic interests while avoiding the scrutiny that a return to war would incite.  Tigray remains deeply divided.  

Ethiopia's TPLF Threatens to Consolidate Control Over Tigray Region

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 23 April 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.   

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of hardliner Debretsion Gebremichael, announced its intention to reinstate the pre-Tigray war regional government, which would effectively void the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022.

TPLF control of Tigray region would increase the risk of large-scale armed conflict between the federal government and the TPLF.

Ethiopia: Tigray Since the Pretoria Agreement

The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2026 a study titled "Peace and Instability: Tigray since the Pretoria Agreement."

The analysis examines the post-2022 period in Tigray following the Pretoria Agreement, which halted large-scale fighting but left key drivers of conflict unresolved.  It highlights how territorial disputes, political exclusion, and stalled processes have created a fragile peace, with the risk of renewed large-scale conflict remaining.  

Ethiopia: More on Genocide in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 9 March 2026 a commentary titled "When Genocide Becomes a Shield Against Accountability" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare, a lawyer focused on human rights.

This is a counterpoint to the commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit and Ella Atsbeha reposted below on 16 February.  The author concludes that genocide intensifies the obligation to examine how power was exercised across time.  Leadership that fails at every stage of a crisis loses its mandate.  

Eritrea and Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 3 March 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray and Eritrea Must Cooperate to Survive" by Negasi Awetehey, University of Aksum.  

The author argues that successive governments in Addis Ababa view relations between Eritrea and Tigray with suspicion and find it in their interest to keep old wounds active.  He calls for dialogue between Tigrayans and Eritreans, adding that Tigray and Eritrea must challenge war narratives by amplifying the public's desire for peace, rehabilitation, and economic cooperation.   

Ethiopia's Welkait: Amharan, Tigrayan, or Something Else?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 2 March 2026 a commentary titled "The Welkait Quagmire Neither Bullets nor Ballets Can Resolve" by Zola Moges, PhD in international law.

Welkait is a district that has been part of Western Tigray since the Tigray People's Liberation Front annexed it following the demise in 1991 of the Derg regime.  Prior to that, Welkait was part of Amhara Region.  

Welkait's strategic location at the intersection of Ethiopia's borders with Sudan and Eritrea complicates the ability to find a solution that manages to overcome long-standing ethnic, language, and cultural differences.  

The author suggests as a solution creation of a self-administered territory that might take the form of a special autonomous zone or even an additional regional state with bilingual Amharic and Tigrinya administration.  

What's Behind Risk of War Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

The Conversation published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on Edge Again: What's Behind the Growing Risk of War" by Yohannes Gedamu. 

The author argues that landlocked Ethiopia's desire for maritime access, Eritrea's support for armed dissident groups in Ethiopia, and Eritrea's omission from the peace process that ended the Tigray war are the primary drivers of current tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopia: Tigray Is Under Siege Again

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray Is Under Siege Again" by Kiros Nigus Thegay, a human rights advocate.

Siege-like conditions prevent Tigray Region from returning to normal. The author argues that the federal government is engaged in "weaponized starvation" and "economic sabotage."  

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray Poised to Fight

 The International Crisis Group published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa."

A new war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Region of Ethiopia is palpable.  It is gripped by rising tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa, on one side, and the Tigray Region and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, on the other.  Recent developments suggest they are getting ready for conflict.  

Argument for Eritrea's Role in Tigray Genocide

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 February 2026 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Role in the Tigray Genocide" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University and manager of the Tigray Genocide website.  

The author argues that Eritrean troops joined those from the Ethiopian federal government to engage in a genocide against Tigrayans during the war in Tigray.  

Dissecting the War in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 15 February 2026 a commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit, who now resides in Belgium, and Ella Atsbeha, who also lives outside Ethiopia.  

This is an "in the weeds" analysis of what went wrong in the Tigray War.  The authors take issue with the views of analysts such as Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot.  

Conflict in Ethiopia

The International Crisis Group posted on 3 February 2026 a commentary titled "Flare-up in Tigray Highlights Risk of More War in Northern Ethiopia" by Magnus Taylor. 

A new outbreak of conflict between Tigray Defense Forces, on one side, and Amhara militias and federal troops, on the other, underscores an escalating standoff between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).  The federal government accuses the TPLF of forming a secret pact with Eritrea amid growing tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara.    

Conflict in Ethiopia

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 5 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.  

The article describes Tigray Defense Force efforts to take territory held by the Ethiopian National Defense Force and Amhara militias.  The heightened tensions could spark a broader conflict with Eritrea.  Should war break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Egypt and the UAE would likely get pulled into it.  

Ethiopia: Transitional Justice in Tigray

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 December 2025 a commentary titled "Why Transitional Justice for Tigray Is a Fiction" by Gidey Amare, a public servant in the health sector.

The Pretoria Agreement section on transitional justice for Tigray was predicated on the idea that the Ethiopian federal government, which was accused of many of the violations, would investigate itself.  The author argues that this was never realistic and the current policy cannot deliver justice for Tigray.  

Interview on Developments in the Horn of Africa

 Tigrai Press aired a 40-minute video interview with me on 19 November 2025.  Bisrat Bahta asked the questions, all of which dealt with current issues in the Horn of Africa.