The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 29 May 2026 an article titled "'Under the Shadow of Fear': Censorship Is Ethiopia's Real Election Story, Journalists Say."
Intimidation of the press is becoming the norm in the runup to Ethiopia's national elections. Numerous reporters have experienced a variety of challenges as they attempt to cover the elections.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File published on 28 May 2026 an article titled "Fano Disrupts Ethiopian Elections" by Michael DeAngelo.
Fano militia has stepped up its attacks in Amhara Region as Ethiopia approaches national elections on June 1. The federal government announced it will not hold elections in at least 8 of Amhara's 138 constituencies due to insecurity.
Foreign Affairs published on 26 May 2026 an article titled "The War in Ethiopia Isn't Over" by Hilary Matfess, University of Denver.
As Ethiopia prepares to hold national elections on June 1, Tigray Region remains combustible, and insurgencies continue in several other regions.
The International Crisis Group published on 15 May 2026 an analysis titled "Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray: Averting a Return to War" by Magnus Taylor.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of Debretsion Gebremichael has seized control of the federal government supported Tigrayan administration in Mekele in a power grab. This is a direct challenge to the federal government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The situation is further complicated because the TPLF has the support of neighboring Eritrea and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) government in Khartoum. For its part, the Abiy Ahmed government has been supportive of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, which is engaged in a civil war with the SAF. Egypt may also join the fray on the side of the TPLF in order to complicate life for Addis Ababa as it builds dams on the Blue Nile, raising concerns in Cairo.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 7 May 2026 an article titled "TPLF Takes Control of Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front reinstated the pre-Tigray war regional government, effectively voiding the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022. This action creates a rival body to replace the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA). It also sets up a showdown with the Ethiopian federal government, which supports the TIA, and increases the risk of military confrontation.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 7 May 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions Rise over RSF Khartoum Strikes" by Michael DeAngelo.
In early May, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a series of drone attacks across Sudan, including on the international airport of Khartoum. The Sudan Armed Forces accused the UAE and Ethiopia of facilitating the drone strikes, including their launching from Bahir Dar airport and a RSF military base inside Ethiopia along the Sudan border.
Ethiopia Insight published on 28 March 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Heads to Elections Amid War and Instability" by Eyob Tilahun Abera, Mekelle University.
Ethiopia is scheduled to have national elections in June. Scattered conflict in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia regions poses serious challenges to organizing and campaigning. The author argues that elections held under such conditions could deepen divisions within the country.
Ethiopia Insight published on 24 March 2026 a commentary titled "The Looming War to Eclipse the Horn's Past Conflicts" by Nebiyu Daniel Meshesha, former Ethiopian diplomat.
The author argues that earlier dynamics in the Horn of Africa that once fractured states and redrew borders now risk drawing Ethiopia into a similar spiral, with potentially profound consequences for the region. The Horn of Africa may once again find itself trapped in a cycle of conflict.
The Conversation published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on Edge Again: What's Behind the Growing Risk of War" by Yohannes Gedamu.
The author argues that landlocked Ethiopia's desire for maritime access, Eritrea's support for armed dissident groups in Ethiopia, and Eritrea's omission from the peace process that ended the Tigray war are the primary drivers of current tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
World Politics Review published on 16 February 2026 an article titled "In Ethiopia, a Slow-Burning Insurgency Takes a Dire Humanitarian Toll" by Jane Cybulski, a pseudonym for a journalist who specializes in the Horn of Africa.
The article discusses the humanitarian crisis caused by the ongoing conflict in Amhara Region between the Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 12 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.
The Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa is increasing its troop strength near Tigray Region indicating this may be a prelude to a military campaign. Eritrea is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front and has troops inside Tigray Region. In the event of a government attack, Eritrea is expected to side with the Tigray Defense Forces,
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 22 January 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.
The Amhara Fano Nationalist Force and the Amhara Fano Peace Organization merged on 17 January to form the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM). The AFNM pledged to fight against Ethiopia's ruling Prosperity Party. The merger may also result in closer collaboration with the Tigray People's Liberation Front and Eritrean forces.
Ethiopia Insight published on 15 December 2025 a commentary titled "Medieval Myths to Modern Ethiopia" by Muktar Ismail.
The author disputes the myth of the Solomonic dynasty. He concludes that Ethiopia faces a critical challenge in creating a shared narrative that embraces its diverse population. This requires moving away from its Solomonic mythology towards a more inclusive fact-based dialogue.
The Associated Press published on 9 December 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Embraces Big Projects but Risks Another War by Seeking Access to the Sea" by Fred Harter.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is determined to obtain access to the Red Sea for landlocked Ethiopia. But this goal risks a miscalculation and the possibility of war with neighboring Eritrea.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 20 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo and Hannah Ochs.
Amhara militias known as Fano stepped up their attacks in Wollo in eastern Amhara Region from August through October. The Ethiopian National Defense Forces responded in kind. Fano was also more active in Gondar. The federal government worries there may be an alignment of Fano, Eritrea, and Oromo and Tigrayan ethno-nationalist forces.
The Economist posted on 13 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Is Perilously Close to Another War."
Political divisions within Tigray Region and worsening relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea over Ethiopia's goal of achieving access to the sea are raising the prospect of yet another war in the region.
Ethiopia Insight published on 10 November 2025 an analysis titled "Pawn on the Red Sea: Ethiopia's Afar Gambit" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is turning to Afar nationalism as a ploy to gain access to the Red Sea. Landlocked Ethiopia is invoking Afar victimhood under Isaias Afwerki in Eritrea and positioning Addis Ababa as a patron of Afar self-determination. How this eventually achieves access to the sea for Ethiopia is not clear.
In the meantime, Eritrea is deploying military forces along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border and arming proxy groups inside Ethiopia. Abiy's ploy also raises concerns in Djibouti, which has a minority Afar population.
Agence France Presse published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Accuses Eritrea of 'Actively' Preparing for War."
Ethiopia's foreign minister sent a letter last week to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stating that the hardliner faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front "and the Eritrean government are actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia."
The Reporter published on 11 October 2025 a commentary titled "Defusing the Mounting Ethio-Eritrea Tensions."
It suggests there is still a narrow window for preventive action and calls for the reopening of diplomatic channels between Ethiopia and Eritrea and a mediated dialogue by a neutral third party such as the Africa Union or the United Nations.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 October 2025 an entry titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Hannah Ochs.
Amhara Fano militias carried out more attacks in Amhara Region from August to September than during any previous two-month period since the beginning of the Fano insurgency. The recent attacks have been concentrated in North and South Wollo zones of eastern Amhara Region. Fano continues, however, to be constrained by internal disagreements.
Ethiopia Insight published on 12 September 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Federal Future Tested in Western Tigray" by Batseba Seifu, co-founder of GEMTigray.
Western Tigray has become the fault line that will decide whether Ethiopia holds together as a federal state, or fractures following the divisions left by the war between Tigray Region and the central government. This commentary focuses on history, cartography, and demography related to the issue of Western Tigray.
