Growing Tension in Ethiopia-Eritrea Relationship

 Agence France Presse published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Accuses Eritrea of 'Actively' Preparing for War."  

Ethiopia's foreign minister sent a letter last week to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stating that the hardliner faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front "and the Eritrean government are actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia."

The Reporter published on 11 October 2025 a commentary titled "Defusing the Mounting Ethio-Eritrea Tensions."

It suggests there is still a narrow window for preventive action and calls for the reopening of diplomatic channels between Ethiopia and Eritrea and a mediated dialogue by a neutral third party such as the Africa Union or the United Nations.  

Report from Mekelle, Ethiopia on Rebuilding after War

 The Financial Times published on 4 October 2023 a comprehensive article from Mekelle titled "Ethiopia's Plan to Rebuild in the Wake of a 'Brutal' War" by Andres Schipani.  

The article notes that slowly Ethiopia is coming back from the cold, although peace is tenuous.  Continuing violence in Amhara Region and the presence of Eritrean Defense Forces in parts of Tigray Region have resulted in 200,000 battle-hardened Tigrayan Defense Forces keeping their small arms.

Abiy Ahmed-Antony Blinken Phone Call

 The Addis Standard published on 4 August 2023 an article titled "Blinken Speaks of 'Immediately Implementing' Pretoria Agreement in a Phone Call with Abiy."  

In a 4 August phone call with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the need for immediate implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, including the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Ethiopia and concurrent disarmament of Tigrayan forces.

Interview on Ethiopian Peace Process (in Amharic)

 Al-Ain News published on 19 July 2022 an interview with me on the process for ending the conflict between the central government and Tigray region.  Al-Ain translated into Amharic my written response to the questions.  

State Department Expresses Concern over Tigrayan Atrocities in Amhara Region

 The State Department issued a statement on 22 February 2022 titled "Reports of Atrocities in the Amhara Region."

The US is gravely concerned by the reports of atrocities committed by Tigrayan Defense Forces in Amhara region of Ethiopia in August and September 2021 as reported by Amnesty International. (This blog posted the Amnesty report below on 16 February.)  The State Department called on all parties to end human rights abuses, conduct credible investigations, and hold parties accountable.  

Ethiopia's Civil War Provides Opening for Iran

 The Middle East Institute posted on 26 January 2022 an analysis titled "Iran to Remain a Key Partner for Ethiopia in the Tigray Conflict" by Banafsheh Keynoush, International Institute for Iranian Studies.

The conflict in Ethiopia has allowed Iran to project power in the Horn of Africa by supporting the central government forces against the Tigray Defense Forces.  Iran has reportedly supplied drones, denied by Ethiopia, and is looking at the relationship as a way to counter Israeli influence in the region.  

An Indian Expert Analyzes Ethiopia's Future

 India's Observer Research Foundation published on 3 January 2022 a commentary titled "The Ethiopian Civil War: Untangling Domestic and International Repercussions" by Rajen Harshe.

The author suggests a satisfactory resolution to the civil war in Ethiopia is a "distant dream" and argues the federal system of governance is crumbling.  

Update on Military Situation in Ethiopia

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 16 December 2021 a 34-minute podcast titled "Tigrayan Forces Retreat in Ethiopia" with William Davison.  Several Ethiopian media outlets recently asserted that William Davison works for the US government and the TPLF.  The ICG strongly rejected these allegations.  

Davison explained that the Tigrayan Defense Forces experienced battlefield reversals in recent weeks because of the difficulty in protecting extended supply lines and attacks by drones supplied to the central government by Turkey, Iran, and China.  Tigrayan forces have improved their positions in the past few days but are operating in a smaller area outside Tigray Region than was previously the case.  For its part, the Oromo Liberation Army is expanding its efforts in rural parts of Oromia but seems to have no presence in urban areas.  

Are Drones Decisive Factor in Ethiopia's Civil War?

 Aljazeera published on 10 December 2021 an article titled "How Armed Drones May Have Helped Turn the Tide in Ethiopia's War" by Alex Gatopoulos.

Armed drones from China, Iran, and Turkey reportedly have been deployed in Ethiopia by the central government and may be having an important effect on the outcome of the fighting.  

Human Rights Watch Account of Tigrayan Civilian Executions in Amhara Region

 Human Rights Watch published on 9 December 2021 a report titled "Ethiopia: Tigray Forces Summarily Execute Civilians."  

Atrocities have bedeviled Ethiopia's ugly civil war from the beginning, initially focused primarily against Tigrayans in Tigray Region.  As the Tigrayan Defense Forces expanded the conflict into Amhara Region, the atrocities followed.  This report investigates summary execution of Amhara civilians in Chenna and Kobo during September.  Human Rights Watch underscores the need for an independent international inquiry into alleged war crimes in Ethiopia's Tigray and Amhara regions.  

Tigrayans Experience Battlefield Reversals

 Aljazeera published on 6 December 2021 an article titled "Ethiopian Forces Recapture Two Key Towns from Tigrayan Forces."

Ethiopian National Defense Forces have recaptured from Tigrayan Defense Forces the key towns of Dessie and Kombolcha in Amhara Region.  

Who Can Mediate Ethiopian Crisis?

 Daily Sabah, a Turkish pro-government daily, published on 30 November 2021 a commentary titled "The Conflict in Ethiopia and Prospects for Mediation" by Ismail Numan Telci, Sakarya University in Serdivan, Turkey.  

The author proposes a number of mediators for the Ethiopia crisis, including Qatar, which he argues can play an important role in mediating Ethiopia's rival parties.

Oromo Group Calls for Confederation in Ethiopia

 Foreign Policy published on 27 November 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Breakup Doesn't Have to Be Violent" by Teferi Mergo, University of Waterloo in Canada, and Kebene Kejela, University of St. Gallen in Switzerland.  Both are affiliated with the Baro Tumsa Institute, an organization registered in the state of Maryland with ties to the Oromo Liberation Front.  

The authors of this controversial piece call for the different parts of Ethiopia to decide their future by holding referenda according to article 39 of the constitution, resulting in a "confederation" of Ethiopian states.  

Comment:  After posting this blog, one of the authors contacted me and explained that the Baro Tumsa Institute (BTI) is not affiliated with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).  While some BTI members might have affiliations with the OLF, it is not accurate to link BTI with the OLF.  There are BTI members who have no affiliations with the OLF or with any Oromo political organization.  

I apologize for misleading readers of my blog post.  

Ethiopian Prime Minister Goes to Battlefront Wherever It Is

 The Associated Press published an article on 24 November 2021 titled "Ethiopia Says PM, a Nobel Peace Laureate, Is at Battlefront."  

As rebel forces slowly approach from the north Ethiopia's capital of Addis Ababa, the government of Ethiopia announced that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived at the battlefront on 23 November to lead Ethiopian National Defense Force troops.

Comment:  The government has not yet shown any pictures of Abiy at the battlefront and it is not entirely clear where exactly the battlefront is located.  For that matter, it is not certain that the rebel forces even intend to try to take Addis Ababa.  It is a multiethnic city.  How would they control or govern it even if they had a military victory?  

How US Can Help End Conflict in Ethiopia

 Foreign Affairs posted on 24 November 2021 a commentary titled "How to Pull Ethiopia Back from the Brink" by Terrence Lyons, George Mason University.

The author said Washington should focus on encouraging a cease fire, even one that is implemented in stages, and seek to shape the subsequent peace talks.

US Fears Military Developments Outrunning Diplomacy in Ethiopia

 The Voice of America posted on 23 November 2021 a story titled "US Envoy Concerned Military Developments in Ethiopia May Outpace Diplomacy."

The US opposes a Tigrayan Defense Force takeover of Addis Abba or cutting the main road between Addis Ababa and Djibouti.  It fears, however, that military developments are overtaking efforts to deescalate the conflict.  

Ethiopia: Will History Repeat Itself?

 The Conversation published on 21 November 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Civil War: Five Reasons Why History Won't Repeat Itself" by Tobias Hagmann, Roskilde University.  

The author says there are 5 reasons why the Abiy Ahmed government will not come to the same end as the Derg regime did in 1991:

--Abiy Ahmed's leadership is not deeply unpopular.

--The federal army is weaker and regional security forces are stronger.

--Political alliances are fragile.

--Eritrean forces backed the TPLF in 1991; now they back the central government.

--Tigrayan leaders are divided on the long-term future of their region.  

Ethiopian Prime Minister to Join Battlefront

 Aljazeera published on 23 November 2021 an article titled "Ethiopia's PM Abiy Ahmed Vows to Lead Army 'from the battlefront'." 

Beginning November 24, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said he will mobilize to the battlefront to lead the Ethiopian National Defense Forces against the Tigrayan Defense Forces.  

Ethnic Arrests in Addis Ababa

 The BBC reported on 20 November 2021 a story titled "Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict: Mass Arrests and Ethnic Profiling Haunt Addis Ababa" by Andrew Harding.

The story reports that large numbers of Tigrayans are being arrested in Addis Ababa for allegedly supporting or sympathizing with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Movement.  

Djibouti's Economy Tanks

 Garowe Online posted on 18 November 2021 a story titled "Djibouti's Economy Nose-dives Amid Tigray Conflict."

Djibouti's finance minister recently said the country had lost half of its national wealth or $1.7 billion in the last 12 months due to the conflict in Ethiopia, COVID-19, and a locust infestation.