Is Ethiopia Preparing for War?

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 25 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Prepares for War: Africa File Special Edition" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The analysis concludes that the Ethiopian federal government will likely launch an offensive against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) within the next month to neutralize the TPLF and its role in an emerging, loose anti-Ethiopian federal government coalition consisting of Eritrea, the TPLF, and other Amhara and Oromo ethnic nationalist groups.  

The Cultural Roots of Ethiopian Governance

 Ethiopia Insight published on 5 January 2026 a commentary titled "Cultural Roots of Ethiopia's Political Failure" by Nagessa Dube, a lawyer in Seattle, Washington.  

The author argues that Ethiopia's long-standing governance problems stem from deep cultural patterns:  silence, secrecy, conformity, authoritarian reflexes, and unquestioned group loyalty.  Foreign analysts often misunderstand Ethiopian politics because they overlook these cultural dynamics.

Myths and Modern Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 15 December 2025 a commentary titled "Medieval Myths to Modern Ethiopia" by Muktar Ismail.

The author disputes the myth of the Solomonic dynasty.  He concludes that Ethiopia faces a critical challenge in creating a shared narrative that embraces its diverse population.  This requires moving away from its Solomonic mythology towards a more inclusive fact-based dialogue.  

Ethiopia: Amhara Militias Step Up Attacks

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 20 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo and Hannah Ochs.

Amhara militias known as Fano stepped up their attacks in Wollo in eastern Amhara Region from August through October.  The Ethiopian National Defense Forces responded in kind.  Fano was also more active in Gondar.  The federal government worries there may be an alignment of Fano, Eritrea, and Oromo and Tigrayan ethno-nationalist forces.  

Ethiopian Sovereignty: How To Maintain It

 Ethiopia Insight published on 11 August 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Sovereignty Illusion: Who Really Pulls the Strings?" by Eyob Yohannes, data analyst in Ethiopia.

The author argues that true economic power in Ethiopia lies in institutions outside the country such as the International Monetary Fund.  He says the solution is reducing dependence on Western lenders and pivoting to alternative partners such as the BRICS, African regional banks, and South-South trade blocs.

Battle of Adwa and Ethiopian Unity

 Ethiopia Insight published on 6 May 2025 a commentary titled "Adwa Is Not the Only Oppressive Ethiopian Myth" by Tarfassa W. Barooddee, a self-employed Oromo living in North America.

The conventional narrative describes the 1896 Battle of Adwa as a decisive triumph of a united African nation resisting European imperialism.  But the author argues that "this romanticized myth" obscures a harsher truth: victory at Adwa did not spare the subject peoples of the south from oppression and violence.  The author concludes that Ethiopian unity cannot be forged by manipulating history.  

Ethiopia's Warrior Culture Contributes to Cycle of Conflict

 Ethiopia Insight published on 23 April 2025 a commentary titled "Blood and Honor Culture Holds Us Back" by Negassa Dube, a lawyer in Seattle, Washington and advocate for Oromo rights.

Ethiopia has been entangled in a recurring cycle of war and conflict.  The author argues that Ethiopia's deeply rooted warrior culture perpetuates this cycle.  Ethiopian children are immersed in narratives that glorify warriors as national heroes.  Ethiopian media reinforce this narrative.  

Acknowledging the problem is the first step toward meaningful change.  While the warrior ethos has preserved sovereignty against colonial powers and oppression, it is now perpetuating a cycle of conflict. 

The Many Faces of Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed

 Foreign Policy published on 6 September 2024 an essay titled "The Many Faces of Abiy Ahmed" by Tom Gardner, Africa correspondent for The Economist.

This essay is adapted from the book published in 2024 and titled The Abiy Project: God, Power and War in the New Ethiopia by Tom Gardner.  The author argues there are many Abiy Ahmeds: the aspiring emperor longing for a glorious past, a forward-looking modernizer, a Pentecostal Putin both pragmatic and Machiavellian, a Christian nationalist, and a corporate CEO.  Abiy is convinced he was sent by God to rule Ethiopia.  

The Hidden World of Chinese Manufacturing in Ethiopia

 The China Global South Project posted on 31 May 2024 a 40-minute audio discussion (and written transcript) with Xinyan Yu and Max Duncan, co-directors/producers of their recent documentary film titled "Made in Ethiopia."  Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden ask the questions.

The discussion and the documentary film focus on relationships between Ethiopian workers and Chinese managers at a Chinese industrial park outside Addis Ababa.  Some 100 Chinese companies have manufacturing facilities in the industrial park.  Filming took place over four years and was interrupted by both COVID-19 and the war between federal government forces and Tigray Defense Forces.

For more information on the film, visit the website.  It will be shown at the Tribeca Festival in New York on 6, 9, and 14 June, at the Sheffield Festival in the UK on 13 and 15 June, at DC/DOX in Washington on 16 June, at Encounters in Johannesburg, South Africa on 22 June, and at Encounters in Cape Town, South Africa on 29 June.

Islamic State Branch in Somalia Goes Multilingual

 The April 2023 edition of the CTC Sentinel includes an article titled "The Islamic State Somalia Propaganda Coalition's Regional Language Push" by Lucas Webber and Daniele Garofalo.

The branch of the Islamic State in Somalia is trying to expand its reach by providing propaganda in Somali, Oromo, Amharic, and Swahili languages.

Tension Remains in Ethiopian Orthodox Church

 Ethiopia Insight published on 28 February 2023 a commentary titled "A Rift in Ethiopia's Orthodox Church Has Been Healed, But Tensions Remain."

The Ethiopian Orthodox Church has averted an internal crisis but still faces divisions that could tear apart the institution and the country.  The current split is driven by ethnic rivalry and a power struggle between the Oromo and the Amhara ethnic groups.

Ethnic Conflicts in Ethiopia

 Deutsche Welle published on 2 February 2023 an article titled "Ethiopia: Old Conflicts Flare As Ethiopia Bids for Peace" by Martina Schwikowski.  

Conflict between Amhara and Oromo ethnic groups could disrupt efforts to return to peace in Ethiopia.

Podcast on Roots of Ethiopian Civil War

 Swarthmore College's War News Radio posted on 22 May 2022 a sixteen minute podcast titled "Forgotten Conflict: The Tigray War" produced by Sophia Becker.  The participants were Swarthmore professor Emily Paddon Rhoads and me.  

The focus of the discussion was the root causes and background to the conflict.   

Threats to Ethiopia's Economy

 Responsible Statecraft, online magazine of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, published on 19 January 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Needs More than Peace Talks" by Alex de Waal.  

The author concluded that Ethiopia needs a rescue package to prevent galloping inflation, restructure its debts, and keep the economy functioning.  Donors will not solve these problems if Ethiopia continues to spend its foreign exchange on the war.  The only donors with the ability to achieve these goals are Western countries and international financial institutions.   

Ethiopian Conflict Takes Toll on Diaspora

 TRT World, Turkish state-owned news channel, published on 26 December 2021 an article titled "How Ethiopia War Is Sowing Discord 13,000-km Away Among US Immigrants" by Baba Umar.  

The conflict in Ethiopia is playing out in the Ethiopian diaspora in the United States.  This article looks at the ethnic divisions in the Ethiopian diaspora in the Washington, D.C. area.

Who Can Mediate Ethiopian Crisis?

 Daily Sabah, a Turkish pro-government daily, published on 30 November 2021 a commentary titled "The Conflict in Ethiopia and Prospects for Mediation" by Ismail Numan Telci, Sakarya University in Serdivan, Turkey.  

The author proposes a number of mediators for the Ethiopia crisis, including Qatar, which he argues can play an important role in mediating Ethiopia's rival parties.

Oromo Group Calls for Confederation in Ethiopia

 Foreign Policy published on 27 November 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Breakup Doesn't Have to Be Violent" by Teferi Mergo, University of Waterloo in Canada, and Kebene Kejela, University of St. Gallen in Switzerland.  Both are affiliated with the Baro Tumsa Institute, an organization registered in the state of Maryland with ties to the Oromo Liberation Front.  

The authors of this controversial piece call for the different parts of Ethiopia to decide their future by holding referenda according to article 39 of the constitution, resulting in a "confederation" of Ethiopian states.  

Comment:  After posting this blog, one of the authors contacted me and explained that the Baro Tumsa Institute (BTI) is not affiliated with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).  While some BTI members might have affiliations with the OLF, it is not accurate to link BTI with the OLF.  There are BTI members who have no affiliations with the OLF or with any Oromo political organization.  

I apologize for misleading readers of my blog post.  

Ethiopian Hate Speech on Social Media

 The BBC posted on 23 November 2021 an account titled "Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict: What Are Facebook and Twitter Doing about Hate Speech?" by Peter Mwai.

Both pro and anti-government users of Facebook and Twitter have posted hateful and inflammatory content in Amharic, Afan Oromo, Somali, and Tigrinya.  Social media platforms are caught in the middle as they try to manage these postings.  

How US Can Help End Conflict in Ethiopia

 Foreign Affairs posted on 24 November 2021 a commentary titled "How to Pull Ethiopia Back from the Brink" by Terrence Lyons, George Mason University.

The author said Washington should focus on encouraging a cease fire, even one that is implemented in stages, and seek to shape the subsequent peace talks.

Why Ethiopia Should Trust the West

 Foreign Policy published on 10 November 2021 a commentary titled "Why Ethiopia Should Trust the West" by Seifudein Adem, Doshisha University in Japan.

The author concludes that it appears Ethiopia is reaching a stage where it cannot save itself and only the West has the willingness and capacity to rescue the Ethiopian state from devouring its own citizens--and eventually itself.  US efforts to help Ethiopia have led to anti-Americanism in Ethiopia that is not ideological and is, therefore, a short-term phenomenon.  It is connected with what the United States is perceived to be doing rather than what the United States is.  At such a perilous moment, it is important for ordinary Ethiopians to understand why they should trust the West.

The underlying frame of reference of the conflict in Tigray region is the contrasting visions of two groups--Amhara and Tigrayan elites--about the future direction of Ethiopia.  Tigrayan elites want to keep ethnic federalism while Amhara elites want to abolish ethnic federalism because it undermines Ethiopia's unity.  

Ethiopia's Western friends can help the country as it tries to heal itself.  If Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wants to keep Ethiopia together, he will be better off embracing Western efforts rather than shunning them. 

Comment:  A great deal of ink has been spilled in recent months on the humanitarian crisis and civil war in Ethiopia.  The comments by Seifudein Adem are among the most rational and constructive that I have seen.