Misfired Turkish Drones Take Civilian Toll in Ethiopia and Sahel

 HumAngle, an African media platform with funding from the MacArthur Foundation and committed to identifying security and humanitarian crises in Africa, published on 21 August 2026 an article titled "The Human Price of Turkish AI-Powered Drone Rush Across Africa" by Ibrahim Adeyemi.  

Ethiopia was one of the first countries in Africa to deploy Turkey's Baykar manufactured TB2 drones in combat.  Military misfires of the drones in Amhara Region of Ethiopia and in the Sahel region of Africa have taken a toll on the civilian population.  Inadequate training in use of the drones probably accounts for most of the mistakes.  

Ethiopian Military Launches Drones on Tigray Region

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 27 August 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.

The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has conducted numerous drone strikes targeting Mekele, the capital, and other parts of Tigray Region.  There was large-scale fighting in Western Tigray on 1 August between the ENDF and the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  

Chinese Company Acquires Stake in Ethiopian Gold Mine Near Sudan War Zone

The Middle East Eye published on 19 August 2026 an article titled "UAE-backed Chinese Company Acquires Stake in Ethiopian Gold Mine Near Sudan War Zone" by Zecharias Zelalem and Oscar Rickett.

Last week, Canadian mining company Allied Gold sold a 9.2 percent stake to China's Zijin Gold International.  This gives Zijin partial ownership of mines in Mali, Cote d'Ivoire, and near Kurmuk in Ethiopia. The Kurmuk mine is in Ethiopia's Benishangul-Gumuz region, which hosts at least one base used by Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).  The UAE supports the RSF and is the main buyer of gold coming from both Sudan and Ethiopia.  

The UAE's sovereign wealth fund has a major share in the parent company of Zijin Gold International and in Canada's Allied Gold.  The Ethiopian gold mine puts Chinese, Canadian, and UAE interests close to the civil war between the RSF and the Sudan Armed Forces in Sudan's Blue Nile State and raises further questions about the UAE's role in the conflict.   

Ethiopia: Review of Fighting in Western Tigray

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Tigray on the Precipice" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces engaged in western Tigray on 1 August, each accusing the other of initiating the conflict.  The battle ended quickly but tension remains high in the region.  

Ethiopians Flee Western Tigray into Sudan

 Radio France Internationale posted on 3 August 2026 an article titled "Hundreds Flee Ethiopia to War-torn Sudan Following New Fighting in Tigray."

Hundreds of Ethiopians fled to Sudan following the outbreak of conflict on 1 August between federal government troops and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in western Tigray region.  They joined thousands of Ethiopian refugees inside Sudan from the 2020-2022 war between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF.

Tigrayan Female Soldiers Experienced Sexual Abuse from Their Own Commanders

 The New Humanitarian published on 16 July 2026 an article titled "As War Fears Grow in Ethiopia, Women Soldiers Recount the Sexual Violence They Experienced" by Mehret Okubay Berehe and Hilary Matfess.

During the 2020-2022 conflict in Tigray, females suffered sexual violence by Ethiopian federal government forces, Eritrean Defense Forces, and Amhara militia.  This article, however, focuses on sexual abuse of female Tigrayan soldiers at the hands of commanders and officers in the Tigray Defense Force, the organization where they served.  

Local Militia in Amhara Region Disrupts Ethiopian Elections

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File published on 28 May 2026 an article titled "Fano Disrupts Ethiopian Elections" by Michael DeAngelo.

Fano militia has stepped up its attacks in Amhara Region as Ethiopia approaches national elections on June 1.  The federal government announced it will not hold elections in at least 8 of Amhara's 138 constituencies due to insecurity.

Ethiopia: Failure of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 May 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Turned Pretoria into Abiy's Shield" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.

This account provides one interpretation for the failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement in a manner that ends conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  

Drone Attacks in Sudan Heighten Tension with Ethiopia

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 7 May 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions Rise over RSF Khartoum Strikes" by Michael DeAngelo.

In early May, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a series of drone attacks across Sudan, including on the international airport of Khartoum.  The Sudan Armed Forces accused the UAE and Ethiopia of facilitating the drone strikes, including their launching from Bahir Dar airport and a RSF military base inside Ethiopia along the Sudan border.  

Ethiopia's TPLF Threatens to Consolidate Control Over Tigray Region

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 23 April 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.   

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of hardliner Debretsion Gebremichael, announced its intention to reinstate the pre-Tigray war regional government, which would effectively void the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022.

TPLF control of Tigray region would increase the risk of large-scale armed conflict between the federal government and the TPLF.

Ethiopia: Tigray Since the Pretoria Agreement

The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2026 a study titled "Peace and Instability: Tigray since the Pretoria Agreement."

The analysis examines the post-2022 period in Tigray following the Pretoria Agreement, which halted large-scale fighting but left key drivers of conflict unresolved.  It highlights how territorial disputes, political exclusion, and stalled processes have created a fragile peace, with the risk of renewed large-scale conflict remaining.  

War in Ethiopia's Tigray Region Averted for Time Being

 The AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 April 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia - Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Ethiopian Federal Government extended the mandate of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) by one year on 8 April.  This may buy time for both sides and avert a return to war in Tigray Region.  

Update on Rising Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 African Business published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Rising Again" by Harry Clynch.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have amassed troops on their shared border, leading some analysts to fear that war could be on its way.  Other analysts are less convinced that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely.  

The Case for Genocide in Ethiopia's War in Tigray

 

Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.  

The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.  

This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.  

Is Ethiopia Preparing for War?

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 25 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Prepares for War: Africa File Special Edition" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The analysis concludes that the Ethiopian federal government will likely launch an offensive against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) within the next month to neutralize the TPLF and its role in an emerging, loose anti-Ethiopian federal government coalition consisting of Eritrea, the TPLF, and other Amhara and Oromo ethnic nationalist groups.  

Ethiopia and Eritrea Play Cat and Mouse Along Border

 Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Diplomacy, Eritrea's Escalation, and the Future of the Horn of Africa" by Bemnet Alemayehu.  

Ethiopia's minister of foreign affairs sent a letter on 7 February to his counterpart in Eritrea expressing serious concern over Eritrea's military penetration deeper into Ethiopia's northeastern border areas.  Ethiopia charged the troops violate the country's territorial integrity and demanded their immediate withdrawal. At the same time, Ethiopia called for diplomatic engagement to avoid reciprocal military escalation.

Ethiopia Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Ambiguous Letter Said More Than It Stated" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda. 

The author raises interesting questions about the substance and form of the letter.   

A facsimile of the 7 February letter between the two foreign ministers has been posted online.  Read it and decide for yourself what kind of message Ethiopia is sending to Eritrea and the world.  Is the letter an example of what Professor Don Levine called Ethiopia's Amharic tradition of "Wax and Gold?"  

Argument for Eritrea's Role in Tigray Genocide

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 February 2026 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Role in the Tigray Genocide" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University and manager of the Tigray Genocide website.  

The author argues that Eritrean troops joined those from the Ethiopian federal government to engage in a genocide against Tigrayans during the war in Tigray.  

Ethiopia's Conflict in Amhara Region

 World Politics Review published on 16 February 2026 an article titled "In Ethiopia, a Slow-Burning Insurgency Takes a Dire Humanitarian Toll" by Jane Cybulski, a pseudonym for a journalist who specializes in the Horn of Africa.

The article discusses the humanitarian crisis caused by the ongoing conflict in Amhara Region between the Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force.

Dissecting the War in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 15 February 2026 a commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit, who now resides in Belgium, and Ella Atsbeha, who also lives outside Ethiopia.  

This is an "in the weeds" analysis of what went wrong in the Tigray War.  The authors take issue with the views of analysts such as Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot.  

Ethiopia Moves Troops Closer to Tigray Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 12 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa is increasing its troop strength near Tigray Region indicating this may be a prelude to a military campaign.  Eritrea is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front and has troops inside Tigray Region.  In the event of a government attack, Eritrea is expected to side with the Tigray Defense Forces,