Increase in Somali Piracy in the Gulf of Aden

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 10 September 2026 an article titled "Somali Pirates Sustain Hijackings" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

Somali pirates have hijacked at least 6 vessels off the coast of Somalia's Puntland State and off the coast of Yemen since April.  Suspected Somali pirates have attempted at least 4 additional hijackings since May.  

The war with Iran may be contributing to the increase in pirate attacks.  Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen may be collaborating with al-Shabaab in Somalia in support of the pirates.  One of the pirated vessels contained Turkish military equipment destined for the Somali National Army.  

Yemen's War Shifting to Red Sea

 Beirut Wire, an independent news and media company in Beirut, posted on 8 September 2026 an article titled "Yemen's Frozen War Is Thawing, and the Red Sea Is Becoming the Next Major Front."

Yemen's civil war has recently seen some of its heaviest fighting in years.  The Houthis have launched a major offensive toward western Taiz and the Red Sea coast while government forces have responded with airstrikes against the Houthis.  The conflict is increasingly becoming intertwined with the US-Iran war and focusing on control of the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint at the south end of the Red Sea.  

Iran-backed Houthis Attack Saudi Arabia and Try to Strengthen Red Sea Blockade

 Aljazeera published on 8 September 2026 an article titled "Saudi-Houthi Fighting in Yemen Escalates: What Happened, and What's Next?" by Usaid Siddiqui.

 Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen targeted Saudi oil facilities belonging to Aramco, wounding at least 73 people.  The Saudis responded with air and cruise missile attacks on Houth-controlled territory in Yemen.

At the same time, the Houthis are trying to increase their control over Yemeni territory near the Bab el Mandeb Strait at the south end of the Red Sea in an effort to implement more effectively their blockade of Saudi shipping through the chokepoint.  Yemeni government forces are responding with attacks on the Houthis.

Financing Terrorist Organizations in Somalia

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 6 August 2026 an analysis titled "Countering Terrorism Financing in East Africa" by Daisy Muibu and Nicole Mazurova.

Al-Shabaab in Somalia has established a sophisticated revenue-generation capacity that includes criminal activities, illicit trade, smuggling, and money laundering.  Al-Shahaab obtains annual revenue of up to $200 million annually.  The Islamic State in Somalia generates between $100,000 and $360,000 monthly through extortion and illicit taxation.  

Defeating these terrorist organizations will require degrading their revenue generation capacities through strengthened national and regional coordination.  

Yemen's Houthis Building Ties with Horn of Africa

 Al-Estiklal, a Turkish daily based in Istanbul, published on 24 August 2026 an article titled "Houthi Expansion in the Horn of Africa: From Arms Smuggling to a Cross-Border Network of Influence."

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi outreach to the Horn of Africa is an attempt to build a human, logistical, and intelligence network that can be utilized on both sides of the Red Sea.  It involves collaboration with al-Shabaab in Somalia and sympathetic individuals in Ethiopia and Eritrea.  

It is part of Iran's broader strategy in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.  The Houthis monitor the movements of countries allied with Saudi Arabia and the United States and secure supply lines to ensure the continued flow of weapons and supplies.

Somaliland Seeks to Be Red Sea Security Player

 The Economist published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Somaliland Wants to Help Secure the Red Sea."

Somaliland's president says his country can help secure the Red Sea by offering military bases to global powers along its coastline.  Somaliland is prepared to offer both the United States and Israel bases at the port of Berbera.  

Interview on the Horn of Africa

 Saxafi Media posted on 23 August 2026 an interview with me titled "Inside Washington's Somaliland Dilemma: David Shinn Reveals What U.S. Policy Really Means."

Although much of the interview deals with Somaliland, it covers issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond, including US support for Somalia sovereignty, Israel's recognition of Somaliland, importance of Ethiopia, the conflict in Sudan. Egypt's role in the region, security in the Red Sea, competition with China, the role of African diasporas, and the contribution of UN agencies and IGAD.

Somali Pirates Are Back in Business

 CNBC published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Somali Pirate Menace Returns as U.S.-Iran War Stokes Regional Chaos and Saps Enforcement Resources" by Aparajita Saxena.

On August 17, pirates seized the cargo vessel Lutuf about four nautical miles off the Somali coast.  A month ago, they seized the MT Asana, a Tanzanian-flagged oil and chemical tanker, in the Gulf of Aden.  The upsurge in piracy may be driven by drought and food insecurity in Somalia and increased regional instability caused by the war with Iran.

Saudi Workaround for Exporting Oil from Red Sea

 CNBC published on 12 August 2026 an article titled "Saudi Arabia Ramps Up Oil Exports Through Mediterranean Pipeline to Avoid Attacks in Red Sea" by Spencer Kimball and Deena Zaidi.

Following the Iranian-supported Houthi blockade of Saudi ships passing through the south end of the Red Sea, Riyadh is rerouting oil supertankers north through the Suez Canal even for oil destined for Asia.

The problem is that fully loaded supertankers sit too deep in the water to transit the Suez Canal.  Consequently, they pump half the Saudi oil cargo into a pipeline on Egypt's Red Sea coast that conveys it across Egypt to an outlet in the Mediterranean Sea.  The supertankers then transit the Suez Canal half loaded and reload the oil at the other end of the pipeline in the Mediterranean.  Saudi oil exports departing the south end of the Red Sea are down 90 percent.

Because of the Houthi blockade, a higher percentage of Saudi oil is now going north to Europe rather than south to Asia.  This may result in a boon for West African oil by making transport to Asia more competitive than oil originating in Saudi Arabia. 

Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Maritime Alliance

 Firstpost posted on 15 August 2026 an article titled "What Is Saudi Arabia's New Red Sea Maritime Alliance?"

Saudi Arabia hosted 43 nations in Riyadh in late July and launched the Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition that, so far, unites 14 regional countries to protect the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden.  It aims to counter Houthi threats coming from Yemen, secure global trade routes, and reduce reliance on Western maritime security operations.

Countries that have signed on are Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, Comoros, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, and the internationally recognized government in Yemen.  Notable omissions are Eritrea, India, UAE, and Oman.  

An Analysis of the Houthi Red Sea Blockade

 Chatham House published on 24 July 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthi Red Sea Blockade: Will Collective Maritime Security Be Defended or Break Down?" by Nitya Labh and Farea Al-Muslimi.

The rebel Houthis are part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance" but retain significant autonomy.  The Houthi blockade of Saudi ships in the Red Sea acts as a deterrent against regional adversaries and reinforces their legitimacy in Yemen.

The Houthi objective is not to sink large numbers of ships, but to create enough uncertainty for commercial shipping that insurers raise premiums, companies reroute vessels, and governments absorb mounting economic costs.

Houthi Attack on Ship in Red Sea Kills Six

 The New York Times published on 11 August 2026 an article titled "Six Killed in Houth Strikes on Red Sea Ship, Yemeni Government Says" by Ismaeel Naar.  

Both the government of Yemen and Iran-backed Houthi rebels stated that Houthi missiles hit a ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on 11 August.  They disagree on what the ship was carrying.  The Yemeni government says food supplies and the Houthis say Saudi military equipment.  There are conflicting accounts of the ship's ownership.  

Ethiopia: Review of Fighting in Western Tigray

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Tigray on the Precipice" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces engaged in western Tigray on 1 August, each accusing the other of initiating the conflict.  The battle ended quickly but tension remains high in the region.  

Saudi Arabia Creates Red Sea Task Force

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Red Sea" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

Saudi Arabia announced on 30 July the formation of a Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to protect shipping in the Red Sea and adjacent waterways following the Bab el-Mandeb Strait blockade of Saudi ships by the Houthi rebels in Yemen.  So far, 14 nations have joined the task force.  

Red Sea Security and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 21 July 2026 a brief titled "Yemen: Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.

In March 2025, the Trump administration designated the Iranian-backed Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization.  On March 15, 2025, U.S. forces began a military campaign against the Houthis which the administration said was intended to compel them to end attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.  The United States and the Houthis agreed to a truce in May 2025, which continues to hold.  

Background of Houthis' Red Sea Blockade

 Pakistan's South Asian Chronicle published on 1 August 2026 an article titled "Houthi Red Sea Crisis."

This is a nice summary of the background of the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea and relations with Saudi Arabia.  

Houthi Red Sea Attacks Cause Higher Insurance Rates

 Insurance Journal posted on 30 July 2026 an article titled "Houthis' Red Sea Attacks Prompt London Insurers to Widen High-Risk Zone" by Jonathan Saul.

As a result of Iran-backed Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, London insurers have expanded the area in the Red Sea subject to higher rates.  Even small changes to war insurance add hundreds of thousands of dollars in extra costs for a seven-day voyage.  

China Has Arranged Red Sea Safe Passage with Houthis

 Al-Monitor published on 29 July 2026 an article titled "China in Touch with Yemen's Houthis to Allow Ships to Sail Through Red Sea, Sources Say" by Jonathan Saul, Parisa Hafezi, Timour Azhari, and Chen Aizhu.  

Beijing has asked the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen to promise safe passage for its oil tankers transporting crude from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu terminal in the Red Sea south through the Bab el-Mandeb choke point.  China clears each shipment with the Houthis, who have developed good relations with Beijing.

Houthis Claim to Attack Another Saudi Oil Tanker

 The New York Times published on 28 July 2026 an article titled "Houthis Claim Strike on Another Saudi Oil Tanker" by Pranav Baskar and Shipin Hakim.  

Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said they targeted on 28 July a Saudi oil tanker, the NCC Ghazal, in the Red Sea with missiles.  Saudi authorities did not confirm the attack.

Securing the Red Sea

 The Hollings Center for International Dialogue published in July 2026 a brief titled "Securing Strategic Waters Across the MENA Region: The Red Sea."

The current threat in the Red Sea is not confined to the closure of the geographical Bab el-Mandeb choke point.  It is shaped by persistent uncertainty caused by the security crises in the wider region.

The threat cannot be addressed through conventional naval tools alone, nor reduced to a piracy or law enforcement problem.  The brief recommends incremental cooperation, capacity building, and risk mitigation measures.