View of Somalia's Campaign Against Al-Shabaab

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 24 March 2023 a 42-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Latest Battles Against Al-Shabaab" with Richard Atwood speaking to Omar Mahmood, ICG's senior analyst for East Africa.

The podcast reports that the Somali National Army's campaign, mostly in central Somalia, has reversed some of al-Shabaab's gains of the past few years, forcing the militants out of several areas, including some important towns.  Al-Shabaab continues to mount resistance in parts of central Somalia and still holds much of southern Somalia.  In recaptured areas, the government must ensure disputes among clans do not flare up again and demonstrate that the Somali government can deliver aid and over time reestablish services like health and education.  The al-Qaeda-linked insurgency has weathered previous offensives only to bounce back.  

Somalia: An Analysis of the Offensive against Al-Shabaab

 CTC Sentinel published in January 2023 an analysis titled "Can Somalia's New Offensive Defeat Al-Shabaab" by Stig Jarle Hansen, Norwegian University of Life Sciences.  

Somali government and regional forces have defeated al-Shabaab forces before only to see them reemerge as strong actors.  The key is to erode al-Shabaab's ability to infiltrate government-controlled areas and its ability to govern, tax, and implement "justice" in these areas.  

Kenya and Decent Jobs

The African Research Institute published on 30 June 2017 a study titled "Kenya Is Failing to Create Decent Jobs" by Kwame Owino, Noah Wamalwa, and Ivory Ndekei.

The number of middle-income earners in Kenya is small and not expanding any faster than GDP growth. This has important implications for Kenya's economic and social development.

Al-Shabaab Funding Assessment

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies published in June 2017 a report titled "Al-Shabaab Financial Assessment" by Yaya J. Fanusie, a former CIA counterterrorism analyst, and Alex Entz.

The report concludes that al-Shabaab probably will see its funding grow in years to come as AMISOM draws down its support for the government of Somalia. Al-Shabaab's funding comes primarily from an extensive taxation system.

Uranium: China, Niger, and Namibia

The China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies published in March 2017 a paper titled "China and Uranium: Comparative Possibilities for Agency in Statecraft in Niger and Namibia" by Peter Volberding and Jason Warner.

The paper examines how Chinese investment has impacted the uranium sector in Niger and Namibia and what impact investment has had on these states' ability to enact state agency across eight indicators in economic and social domains. It found that the impact has been mixed and uneven. While the investment in Niger was widely regarded as a failure, the opposite was true in Namibia.

Eritrea: Ending the Exodus?

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 8 August 2014 a report titled "Eritrea: Ending the Exodus?" It deals with the growing flight from the country of mostly young people.  It reports that even the government of Eritrea has concluded, despite the side benefits, that the level of the exodus is unsustainable, not least for maintaining support from political constituencies at home and in the diaspora. 

Somalia: Al-Shabaab and the 2011-2012 Famine

The Humanitarian Policy Group (HPG) and The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2013 a paper titled "Talking to the Other Side: Humanitarian Negotiations with Al-Shabaab in Somalia" by Ashley Jackson, a research fellow at HPG, and Abdi Aynte, director of The Heritage Institute.  The authors note that al-Shabaab did permit some humanitarian organizations to operate in al-Shabaab held territory during the 2011-2012 famine.  Most negotiations that led to permission to operate took place at the local level between aid workers and representatives of al-Shabaab.

The authors conclude that the aid agencies faced an impossible choice: agree to al-Shabaab's conditions, with the hope of providing badly needed assistance to civilians, or withdraw from areas it controlled.  While the systems and procedures al-Shabaab put in place provided a measure of predictability and security for some, its conditions were extreme and posed a direct challenge to many of the principles aid agencies claimed to espouse. 

Investment Study for Mekelle, Ethiopia

The Millennium Cities Initiative (MCI), an initiative of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, in cooperation with the UN Development Program recently published an 83-page study titled "Invest in Ethiopia: Focus Mekelle."

This study covers one of the eleven cities in eight African countries in an effort to attract more foreign direct investment. 

The other cities in the project are Accra and Kumasi, Ghana; Kisumu, Kenya; Blantyre, Malawi; Bamako and Segou, Mali; Akure and Kaduna, Nigeria; Louga, Senegal; and Tabora, Tanzania.

The detailed study looks at:

• Opportunities for investors
• Incentives, special zones and related matters
• The business environment
• Taxation in Ethiopia
• Legal framework for investment
• Investor assessment of the investment climate
• Foreign investors in Ethiopia

Africa Progress Report 2013

The Africa Progress Panel (APP) chaired by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan just released the 2013 edition of the 120 page Africa Progress Report 2013 in English and French.  The focus is on equity in extractives: stewarding Africa's natural resources for all. 

The ten-member APP also includes Michel Camdessus, Peter Eigen, Bob Geldof, Graca Machel, Strive Masiyiwa, Olusegun Obasanjo, Linah Mohohlo, Robert Rubin and Tidjane Thiam.