State of Somalia in 2025

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in July 2026 a report titled "State of Somalia 2025."

The report reviews the major political, security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and regional developments that shaped Somalia in 2025.  Somalia recorded notable gains in international diplomacy, institutional development, regional integration, and state visibility.  It also experienced persistent political polarization, federal-state tensions, humanitarian vulnerability, and unresolved questions surrounding constitutional and electoral processes that continued to challenge state-building efforts.

Somalia demonstrated growing international relevance and achieved several important diplomatic and institutional milestones.  Yet progress remained constrained by external interference, including Israel's violation of Somalia's sovereignty through its recognition of Somaliland, alongside political fragmentation, unresolved constitutional questions, persistent insecurity, and recurring humanitarian crises.

Ethiopia's Economic Outlook

 Nanyang Technological University published on 6 July 2026 an article titled "Assessing Ethiopia's Economic Reform and Outlook" by Rafiq Raji.  

Ethiopia's economic growth since 2022 has averaged about 8.5 percent and is projected to maintain that rate at least until 2030, assuming there are no catastrophic events such as a war in Tigray region or with Eritrea.  Inflation is trending down and Ethiopia has restructured its significant level of debt.  The country's exports are doing well.  

The Horn of Africa Faces a Looming Polycrisis

 The Conversation published on 16 July 2026 a discussion summary titled "Africa's Greater Horn Region Is Facing a Looming Polycrisis Fueled by Conflict, Prices, Climate and Disease" by Daniel Maxwell, Alex de Waal, Luka Kuol, Merry Fitzpatrick, and Peter Hailey.

The impacts of a strengthening El Nino and effects of the war in Iran combined with existing prolonged crisis and conflict in the Horn of Africa are leading potentially to a major, multicountry polycrisis.

World Bank Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth Prospects

 The World Bank Group published in April 2026 "Africa Economic Update: Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa."

The World Bank projects that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2026 will average 4.1 percent, the same as in 2025.  Downside risks, however, are emerging due in large part to disruptions caused by the war in Iran.  They include rising fuel, food, and fertilizer prices together with tighter financial conditions that are likely to push inflation higher, disrupt economic activity, and disproportionately affect the most vulnerable households which spend a larger share of their income on food and energy.

Can Ethiopia's Strong Growth Rate Continue?

 Foreign Policy published on 18 February 2026 an article titled "What's Behind Ethiopia's Double Digit Growth: And Can Addis Ababa's Boon Last?" by Nosmot Gdabamosi. 

Ethiopia's impressive growth rate is being driven by floating the exchange rate for its currency, the birr, and strong exports of coffee and gold.  But high debt and involvement in Sudan's civil war could reverse the current positive numbers.   

Ethiopia's Currency Gamble

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 December 2025 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Currency Gamble" by Mintesinot Melaku.

The IMF encouraged Ethiopia to adopt a floating exchange rate.  The author explains why Ethiopia was ill-prepared to implement this currency reform program.  The core problem is the inability to generate sufficient foreign exchange income.

Impact of China's Economic Slowdown on Africa

 The Atlantic Council published in November 2025 a study titled "China's Economic Slowdown and Spillovers to Africa" by Matthew Mingey, Jeremy Smith, and Laura Gormley.  

This report investigates how different projections of China's economic growth and structure over the next five years will affect trade and financial engagement with the African continent and what outcomes will mean for decision-makers.

The best long-term outcome for Africa is likely one in which China accepts the cost of reform to implement slower, but more stable growth.  While countries could previously envision the net benefits of close trading relationships with China in 2030, trade now presents both opportunity and threat: opportunity in the form of cheap imports but complication in the form of persistent trade imbalances and overcapacity in manufacturing.  Under any growth scenario, finance from China's banks and investors will continue to decline as China's domestic financial system evolves.  

Strong Growth Rate in Ethiopia

 Finance in Africa posted on 12 October 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia's GDP Accelerates as Exports Hit Record $8.3bn" by Amarachi Orjiude-Ndibe. 

Ethiopia's economy expanded 8.8 percent in fiscal year 2024/25, which ended on 8 July.  Ethiopia expects to achieve 9 percent growth for the current fiscal year.  Annual inflation remains a concern at almost 14 percent last fiscal year.  

Departure of Ethiopia's Bank Governor

 Ethiopia Insight published on 23 September 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Central Bank Shake-Up: The Governor's Exit and What It Means" by Abrar Fitwi, Saint Mary's College in Indiana.

The departure of Ethiopia's central bank governor, Mamo Mihretu, highlights the unsettled nature of Ethiopia's economic adjustment efforts.  

Ethiopia's Painful Debt Repayment

 Ethiopia Insight published on 5 September 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Debt: When Reform Becomes Punishment" by Eyob Yohannes, a writer based in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is caught between a history of reckless borrowing and foreign imposed belt tightening, resulting in price volatility and diminished purchasing power.  The painful economic reforms occur during a period of internal political conflict.

Impact of Doctors' Strike in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 June 2025 a commentary titled "Anatomy of Defiance: Ethiopia's Medics Say Enough" by Worku Abera, Dawson College in Montreal.

A nationwide doctors' strike in Ethiopia has unsettled the government and raised fears other public servants may follow their example.  The strike is over both salaries and a demand for dignity, justice, and reform.  

South Sudan's Economy in Severe Crisis

 The World Bank published in March 2025 a major report titled "South Sudan Economic Monitor: A Pathway to Overcome the Crisis."

South Sudan's socio-economic outcomes have worsened over the past decade due to recurrent conflicts, fragility, and macroeconomic mismanagement compounded by global economic and climate shocks.  This dire situation is the result of: (1) nascent institutions and weak governance; (2) persistent mismanagement of the country's abundant natural capital, namely oil, and (3) recurrent community-level conflicts and violence that led to nationwide armed conflict in 2016 and localized ongoing conflict after the 2018 peace agreement.

South Sudan is now facing a severe crisis.  The economy is projected to contract by 30 percent in fiscal year 2024/2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of negative growth.  In fiscal year 2025, GDP per capita is estimated to decline to around half of the fiscal year 2020 levels.

Oil Production Resumes in South Sudan, But Economy and Chinese Oil Companies Struggle

 The South China Morning Post published on 2 March 2025 an article titled "How Chinese Firms Are Holding Out Hope for South Sudan's Oil Lifeline" by Jevans Nyabiage.

After a year of interrupted oil production, which provides 90 percent of South Sudan's revenue, it resumed early this year.  While this is an important boost to South Sudan's economy, inflation rages and production will not return to pre-shutdown levels.  Chinese companies with significant stakes in the oil sector are hoping they can return to profitability.

Ethiopia's Economic Reform Program Faces Serious Challenges

 Foreign Policy posted n 19 December 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Precarious Economic Reforms" by Liam Taylor, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.  

The author argues that Ethiopia's economic reform package is "fraught with jeopardy."  Political instability and a history of foreign investors who have been burned in Ethiopia does not bode well for the program.  

On the Ground Report from Omdurman, Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 7 November 2024 a 32-minute podcast titled "Inside Sudan's Catastrophic Civil War" with Elissa Jobson and Mohanad Hashim, Sudanese journalist with the BBC.

Mohanad Hashim travelled by road from Port Sudan on the Red Sea to Omdurman, across the White Nile from Khartoum, escorted by troops from the Sudan Armed Forces. He provides insightful analysis of the situation in Sudan.  

The devastation in this part of Sudan is near total.  He said the younger generation of Sudanese believes a new Sudan needs to be formed; the previous generation of leaders is not up to the task.  He concludes that neither side can win a military victory; it is a war of attrition. 

Ethiopia: Will Monetary Reform Save the Economy?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 5 November 2024 a commentary titled "Now the Birr Floats, Will Ethiopia Sink or Swim?" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst and former advisor to the president of Somali Region.  

Last July, Ethiopia adopted a market-determined exchange rate, lifted most current account restrictions, and modernized its monetary policy framework in order to pave the way for International Monetary Fund and World Bank bailouts.

Ethiopia has regressed from two decades of economic and social progress and faces growing economic challenges.  The recent economic policy reform has witnessed a plummeting depreciation of the currency and strong inflationary pressure.  The author concludes that IMF and donor financing are unlikely to stabilize an economy plagued by conflict, poor management, and rapid currency depreciation.  

Criticism of Ethiopia's Agreement with the IMF

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 August 2024 a commentary titled "The Addis-Washington Consensus and Its Democratic Deficit" by Fassil Hailu, a pen name for a columnist with Ethiopia Insight.

The $3.4 billion International Monetary Fund agreement with Ethiopia requires a number of economic reforms.  The author believes that the Ethiopian government is captive to the IMF for the entire duration of the reform package and that the Fund enjoys undue influence.   

South Sudan Oil Pipeline Rupture Endangers Economy

 Agence France Presse published on 9 July 2024 an article titled "No Oil, No Food: Damaged Pipeline Piles Misery on South Sudan."

South Sudan's oil dependent economy faces huge problems as a result of the rupture of a key oil pipeline that passes through war-torn Sudan.  South Sudan is losing about 70 percent of its oil revenue because of the rupture. 

Kenya's Debt Crisis and China

India's Firstpost posted on 26 June 2024 a 6-minute video titled "Is Chinese Debt the Reason Kenya Wants to Raise Taxes?" 

The video spells out the background of Kenya's $76 billion public debt, noting that much of it is owned to the World Bank, IMF, African Development Bank, and reimbursement of Eurobonds.  But China is the single largest bilateral holder of Kenyan debt and Nairobi faces an upcoming repayment to Beijing of $1.2 billion that it is hard pressed to manage.

Sudan's Warring Factions Contribute Directly to Likely Famine

 The Washington Post published on 1 April 2024 an article complete with photographs titled "Hunger Stalks War-ravaged Sudan as Aid Is Blocked and Looted" by Diana Zeynab Alhindawi and Katharine Houreld.

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces routinely loots food warehouses in Darfur while the Sudan Armed Forces periodically blocks the delivery of food there.  These factors contribute to Sudan being on the brink of famine.