Somalia Risks Becoming a Jihadist State

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 17 November 2025 an analysis titled "Somalia at Risk of Becoming a Jihadist State" by Matt Bryden, founder of Sahan, a policy and research center focused on the Horn of Africa.

The author has extensive experience in Somalia and Somaliland.  He says al-Shabaab now controls about 30 percent of Somalia's territory, far more than the federal government in Mogadishu, and poses a serious threat of taking the capital.  The federal government is heavily reliant on the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission for security.  

Somalia's economy is fractured and heavily dependent on three major ports of Kismayo, Mogadishu, and Bossaso while Berbera supports Somaliland.  The ports, in turn, empower different federal states that often defy central government authority.  The author concludes that Somalia faces a prospect that it may become an illiberal Islamist state.   

International Crisis Group Recommendations for US Policy on Somalia

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 24 October 2025 a commentary titled "Retooling the Trump Administration's Somalia Policy."

Somalia has posed a dilemma for US policy for decades.  The ICG urges the US to push Somalia's politicians to engage in good faith dialogue aimed at ending the chronic political infighting in the country.  It should use its influence to encourage a reconciliation between Somalia and Puntland and help establish a modus vivendi between Somalia and Somaliland.  Finally, it should urge Mogadishu to consider preparing steps toward a conversation with al-Shabaab about ending the war.

Somali Government Retakes Villages from Al-Shabaab

 The AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "Somalia--Counterterrorism" by Michael DeAngelo and Hannah Ochs.

Somali government and African Union forces pushed al-Shabaab out of several villages in the Lower Shabelle that al-Shabaab had held since March 2025.  

Avoiding Turmoil in Somalia's Electoral Reform Process

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 24 September 2025 an analysis titled "Electoral Showdown in Somalia: Avoiding Another Round of Turmoil."

Somalia's political opposition sees the government's electoral reform package as an effort to tilt the scales in the incumbent president's favor.  The ICG calls on the government and its opponents to accept a compromise.  

Somalia: A Security Assessment and Future Outlook

 CTC Sentinel published in May 2025 an analysis titled "Somalia At the Crossroads: Resurgent Insurgents, Fragmented Politics, and the Uncertain Future of AUSSOM" by Daisy Muibu and Yayedior Mbengue.

Al-Shabaab has re-surged, issues remain between the federal government and the Puntland government, and the future of the African Union mission is uncertain.  This analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the current security situation and the outlook for Somalia.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab Steps Up Activity

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "Al-Shabaab Ramadan Offensive" by Liam Karr.

Al-Shabaab stepped up its terrorist activity during Ramadan in central Somalia and on the outskirts of Mogadishu.  It included an unsuccessful improvised explosive device (IED) attempt on the life of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.  

Implications for the Region of Ethiopia-Somalia Reconciliation

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 26 March 2025 an analysis titled "Ethiopia-Somalia Rapprochement and Its Potential Geopolitical Implications."

Somalia's recent rapprochement with Ethiopia could lead to a more balanced foreign policy, reducing Mogadishu's involvement in regional power struggles.  Ethiopia has strengthened its military presence and security role in Somalia while Egypt will have a smaller presence than originally projected.  Ethiopia has frozen but not abandoned its MOU with Somaliland.  

Ethiopia-Somalia Relations on the Mend

 The Voice of America published on 27 February 2025 an article titled "Ethiopian PM Visits Somalia as Neighbors Try to Improve Relations" by Mohamed Olad Hasan.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Mogadishu on 27 February where he met with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in an effort to improve strained relations. Earlier in the week, Ethiopia and Somalia signed an agreement that secured the continued participation of Ethiopian troops in the new African Union mission in Somalia, known as AUSSOM.

Podcast: What to Expect from the New AU Mission in Somalia

 The International Crisis Group posted on 16 January 2025 a 40-minute podcast titled "What to Expect from the New AU Mission in Somalia" with Paul Williams, George Washington University, and Omar Mahmood.  

This is a discussion of the newly authorized five-year African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).  It is arguably the most complex international peace mission in the world today.  This is the third African Union peace mission in Somalia.  AUSSOM is smaller in size compared to previous missions, but its purpose has not changed significantly from earlier missions.  Williams discusses the challenges the Somali National Army faces working with AU peace forces.  

An Egyptian View of Developments in Somalia

 The National Interest published on 9 October 2024 a commentary titled "Egypt in Somalia: Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick" by Mohamed Farid, member of the Egyptian Senate, and Mohamed Maher, Egyptian journalist based in the US.

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is scheduled to take over from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by January 2025.  Egypt is supplying weapons, equipment, and training to the Somali National Army.

The authors argue that Egypt's involvement in Somalia is driven by its interest in maintaining regional stability and countering al-Shabaab terrorism.  They acknowledge, however, that Egypt is concerned by Ethiopia's "expansionist policies" that "threaten Somali sovereignty."

Somalia-Ethiopia Tensions Escalate

 The Voice of America published on 4 October 2024 an article titled "Somalia-Ethiopia Tensions Escalate: UN Urges Diplomatic Resolution" by Mohamed Olad Hassan.

Somalia is firmly against having Ethiopian troops as part of the new African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) as tension between the two countries escalates in the aftermath of Ethiopia's MOU with Somaliland.  The United Nations urged that Somalia and Ethiopia resolve their differences through diplomacy as the AU mission is being established.

Egypt Is Cozying Up to Somalia to Thwart Ethiopia

 The Atlantic Council published on 19 September 2024 an analysis titled "Egypt Is Cozying Up to Somalia to Thwart Ethiopia" by Shahira Amin.

In August, Egypt sent two C-130 planes with weapons and ammunition to Mogadishu to improve relations with Somalia and send a message to Ethiopia.  Egypt has long opposed Addis Ababa's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  It grew increasingly concerned following Ethiopia's memorandum of understanding with Somaliland that includes a possible Ethiopian naval base on the Somaliland coast.