AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 13 August 2026 an article titled "Somalia--AUSSOM" by Michael DeAngelo.
The African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has begun an accelerated handoff of responsibility to the Somali National Army. AUSSOM's mission end date is December 2029, but the goal is to complete most of the handoff in 2028. Al-Shabaab will likely exploit any lapse in counterterrorism efforts that might result from this decision.
This is the full text of the interview by Omar Faruk Osman, Secretary-General of the National Union of Somali Journalists, with General Dagvin R.M. Anderson, the Commander of U.S. Africa Command in Mogadishu and posted on 31 July 2026.
Most of the interview focuses on US-Somali cooperation in combatting al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia. This is the interview where General Anderson also said, "there are no plans to build a base in Somaliland" and "U.S. policy is, and remains, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia. That has not changed."
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Puntland Standoff with the Federal Government of Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Aaryaman Shah.
Ties between the Somali government in Mogadishu and Puntland state continue to deteriorate as Mogadishu implements its constitutional and electoral agenda. The national Somali Future Council (SFC) opposition coalition, which includes Puntland and Jubaland states and leading Somali opposition figures, has threatened to hold parallel elections and establish new government structures if Mogadishu continues to implement its agenda.
The International Crisis Group published on 30 June 2026 an analysis titled "New Chapter, Same Stalemate: Somalia's War with Al-Shabaab."
This analysis describes the ebb and flow of al-Shabaab's war with the Somali government since 2022. It concludes that while Mogadishu faces several big challenges, it retains the military capability, in terms of personnel and resources, to hold the line, provided that external support does not abruptly disappear.
Meanwhile, despite al-Shabaab's pragmatic shifts in its approach to ruling areas under its control, its unpopularity among those it governs remains a roadblock for its attempts to supplant the Somali government.
With neither side able to defeat the other, the war in Somalia is fundamentally at a stalemate with no end in sight.
China-Africa Security Radar posted on 1 February 2026 a commentary titled "China and Somalia Signal Deeper Security Ties--but Agency Still Maters."
Ever since breakaway Somaliland exchanged liaison offices with Taiwan, China has been an outspoken supporter of Somalia's territorial integrity and taken increasing steps to expand its security relationship with Mogadishu.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 22 January 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael De Angelo.
Al-Shabaab has stepped up its attacks northeast of Mogadishu in Middle Shabelle Region. The article includes a map of al-Shabaab attacks since December 2025.
The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 6 January 2026 an analysis titled "From Syria to Somaliland: Turkey-Israel Competition Reshapes Region" by Burcu Ozcelik.
Turkey has a strong relationship with Somalia, increasing interests in the region, and opposes Israel's recent recognition of breakaway Somaliland. This development adds to tension between Turkey and Israel in the Horn of Africa. Turkish and Israeli interests also diverge sharply in Syria, Gaza, Cyprus, and Greece.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 17 November 2025 an analysis titled "Somalia at Risk of Becoming a Jihadist State" by Matt Bryden, founder of Sahan, a policy and research center focused on the Horn of Africa.
The author has extensive experience in Somalia and Somaliland. He says al-Shabaab now controls about 30 percent of Somalia's territory, far more than the federal government in Mogadishu, and poses a serious threat of taking the capital. The federal government is heavily reliant on the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission for security.
Somalia's economy is fractured and heavily dependent on three major ports of Kismayo, Mogadishu, and Bossaso while Berbera supports Somaliland. The ports, in turn, empower different federal states that often defy central government authority. The author concludes that Somalia faces a prospect that it may become an illiberal Islamist state.
The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in November 2025 a study titled "The Formation of Hirshabelle State: Challenges and Opportunities."
Established in 2016 as the fifth federal member of Somalia, Hirshabelle State represented a pivotal yet contentious milestone in the country's governance process, which was widely criticized for its rushed and exclusionary decision-making. The process exacerbated unresolved grievances among key stakeholders.
The AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "Somalia--Counterterrorism" by Michael DeAngelo and Hannah Ochs.
Somali government and African Union forces pushed al-Shabaab out of several villages in the Lower Shabelle that al-Shabaab had held since March 2025.
Ethiopia Insight published on 19 August 2025 a commentary titled "The Gedo Stratagem: Ethiopia's High-Stakes Proxy Politics" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.
Straddling the tri-border area of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, the Gedo region has become the epicenter of proxy wars, clan rivalries, and al-Shabaab resurgence, threatening to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa.
South Africa's Daily Maverick published on 28 July 2025 an article titled "Fragmented Governance in Somalia a Breeding Ground for Al-Shabaab's Growing Influence and Power" by Selam Tadesse Demissie.
Rivalries among the federal government, states, and political opposition are undermining the country's earlier counterterrorism successes. Al-Shabaab is regaining areas in central Somalia and threatens the capital as the government struggles to implement its counterterrorism strategy.
AEI's Critical Threats published on 10 July 2025 an article titled "Central Somalia" by Liam Karr and Edie Tesfaye.
On July 7, al-Shabaab captured the district capital of Moqokori in Hiraan Region of Somalia. Recent al-Shabab gains have allowed it to relink territory it controls in central and southern Somalia.
CTC Sentinel published in May 2025 an analysis titled "Somalia At the Crossroads: Resurgent Insurgents, Fragmented Politics, and the Uncertain Future of AUSSOM" by Daisy Muibu and Yayedior Mbengue.
Al-Shabaab has re-surged, issues remain between the federal government and the Puntland government, and the future of the African Union mission is uncertain. This analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the current security situation and the outlook for Somalia.
The International Crisis Group posted on 16 January 2025 a 40-minute podcast titled "What to Expect from the New AU Mission in Somalia" with Paul Williams, George Washington University, and Omar Mahmood.
This is a discussion of the newly authorized five-year African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). It is arguably the most complex international peace mission in the world today. This is the third African Union peace mission in Somalia. AUSSOM is smaller in size compared to previous missions, but its purpose has not changed significantly from earlier missions. Williams discusses the challenges the Somali National Army faces working with AU peace forces.
The Voice of America published on 26 December 2024 an article titled "Eritrean, Somali Leaders Discuss Stability Amid Regional Tensions" by Mohamed Olad Hassan.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met this week in Asmara with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two leaders reaffirmed the objectives laid out in the October Tripartite Summit between Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt, aimed at enhancing cooperation and promoting regional stability.
There was growing concern in Eritrea that Somalia's Turkish-brokered agreement with Ethiopia had contradicted the Tripartite Summit results.
The National Interest published on 9 October 2024 a commentary titled "Egypt in Somalia: Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick" by Mohamed Farid, member of the Egyptian Senate, and Mohamed Maher, Egyptian journalist based in the US.
The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is scheduled to take over from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by January 2025. Egypt is supplying weapons, equipment, and training to the Somali National Army.
The authors argue that Egypt's involvement in Somalia is driven by its interest in maintaining regional stability and countering al-Shabaab terrorism. They acknowledge, however, that Egypt is concerned by Ethiopia's "expansionist policies" that "threaten Somali sovereignty."
Foreign Policy published on 16 October 2024 a commentary titled "The Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.
The author argues that Egypt is aligning with Eritrea and Somalia to counter Ethiopia, but a direct conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia is unlikely with the Somali National Army preoccupied by its fight against al-Shabaab.
The International Peace Institute published in October 2024 a report titled "ATMIS Transition and Post-ATMIS Security Arrangement in Somalia."
In April 2022, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) was reconfigured as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Its mandate was to degrade al-Shabaab, provide security to population centers, secure major supply routes, and develop Somali security forces. The report identifies the challenges encountered and evaluates the progress made so far.
The International Crisis Group posted on 19 September 2024 a 39-minute podcast titled "Somalia Amid a Swirl of Regional Tensions" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.
Somalia is insisting that Ethiopia renounce the memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, which Ethiopia refuses to do. Somalia signed a new security agreement with Turkey and followed this with some kind of secret agreement with Egypt, which may include training of Somali soldiers. Turkey and Egypt seem to be working to cooperate in Somalia.
If Ethiopia does not renounce the MOU, Somalia said Ethiopian troops will no longer be permitted to participate in the ATMIS stabilization mission. There is speculation that Egyptian troops will replace them, which would be challenging for Egypt to do. It could also result in a short-term security vacuum.
Both Ethiopia and Somalia are engaged in brinkmanship. This situation leaves openings for al-Shabaab to expand its influence in Somalia. The Islamic State remains operationally insignificant inside Somalia but is playing a larger external role.
