Turkey-Africa Relations

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 10 March 2025 an analysis titled "Turkey's Return to Africa" by Raphael Parens and Marcel Plichta.  

Turkey sees Africa as a core part of its global political and economic engagement and a source of support in international organizations.  Africa also provides critical raw materials and minerals for Turkish companies and markets for contractors, including Turkey's version of Russia's Wagner Group known as SADAT.  

Turkey Mediates Ethiopia-Somalia Crisis but Al-Shabaab May Still Benefit

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats published on 18 December 2024 an analysis titled "Africa File Special Edition: Ankara Declaration Reduces Ethiopia-Somalia Tensions but Leaves Unresolved Gaps" by Kathryn Tyson and Liam Karr.

Ethiopia and Somalia agreed on December 11 to work toward securing Ethiopian commercial access to the sea as part of a Turkish-mediated Ankara Declaration.  Ethiopia will likely withdraw from or at least pause its controversial naval base deal with breakaway Somaliland.  This, in turn, may result in a reversal by Somalia to exclude Ethiopian troops from the new African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia.  Nevertheless, the al-Shabaab terrorist organization could still benefit from these developments.  

Ethiopia and Somalia Reach Tentative Agreement on Port Access

 Deutsche Welle published on 11 December 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia, Somalia Reach Compromise to End Feud, Turkey Says."

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met in Ankara on 11 December at the invitation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to work closely together on commercial arrangements and bilateral agreements that would ensure Ethiopia's "reliable, safe and sustainable" access to the sea "under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia."  Ethiopia and Somalia also agreed to begin technical talks no later than the end of February 2025 and to complete them within four months.

Comment:  No direct mention seems to have been made of Ethiopia's earlier MOU with Somaliland for a military base in exchange for diplomatic recognition of Somaliland.  Nor was Somaliland involved in the discussions.  This appears to be an effort by Ethiopia to resolve serious differences with Somalia while putting aside or ever annulling the MOU with Somaliland.  

Ethiopia, Turkey, Somalia, and Somaliland: It's Complicated

 The Conversation published on 3 April 2024 a commentary titled "Turkey and Ethiopia Have Had Close Ties for Many Years: Somalia Maritime Deals May Shift the Dynamics" by Michael B. Bishku, Augusta University.  

Long standing Ethiopia-Turkey ties are being put to the test as a result of Ethiopia's deal with Somaliland for a military base and reportedly diplomatic recognition.  Turkey has a military base in Somalia, which opposes the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal, and is training Somali soldiers and equipping its naval force.  This situation poses a dilemma for Turkey's relations with Ethiopia.

Somalia: Comparing Assistance from Turkey and the UAE

 The Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Air University (Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama) published on 1 June 2022 a study titled "Middle-Power Aid Rivalry in the Horn of Africa: A Comparative Study of Emirati and Turkish Foreign Aid Policy in Somalia" by Fabio van Loon.  

The article demonstrates the radically different approaches to aid in Somalia by Turkey and the UAE.  Turkey is spreading a Turkish form of political Islam that has sparked competition with the UAE, which seeks to contain the spread of political Islam.  

Turkey Operates in Shadow of China in Africa

 The Middle East Institute posted on 21 June 2022 an analysis titled "Building in Africa: Turkey's 'Third Way' in China's Shadow" by John Calabrese.  

Turkish construction companies are active in Africa and, on occasion, have outbid Chinese companies, which account for most infrastructure construction on the continent.  

Turkey's Africa Diplomacy

 World Politics Review published on 25 October 2021 an analysis titled "Erdogan's Africa Diplomacy Puts Turkey's Ambitions to the Test" by Chris Olaoluwa Ogunmodede.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan completed last week a visit to Angola, Togo, and Nigeria in an effort to expand relations with Africa.  It occurred amid growing geopolitical tensions in Turkey's backyard as well as with partners like France and the United States.  

Turkey-Africa Relations

 African Business published on 19 October 2021 an article titled "Erdogan Eyes Deals at Turkey-Africa Summit" by Shoshana Kedem. 

Increased trade and investment in Africa represent a huge success story for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has massive problems at home with an economy that is not doing well.   

Ethiopia-Turkey Ties Strengthen

 Al-Monitor published on 18 August 2021 an article titled "Turkey Views Ties with Ethiopia as Key to Influence in Africa" by Fehim Tastekin.  

Ethiopia seeks Turkish support to offset Arab support for Egypt and Sudan on the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the ability to purchase drones from Turkey.  Turkey sees Ethiopia as a gateway to Sub-Saharan Africa and an ally in its differences with Egypt.

Turkey and Africa in the COVID-19 Era

 The Institute for Defense Analyses' Africa Watch published on 17 March 2021 an analysis titled "Aid and Trade: Turkey's Engagement in Africa during COVID-19" by Sarah Daly.

COVID-19 has not slowed Turkey's progress in Africa; rather it has allowed it to engender goodwill with existing partners in North Africa and the Horn of Africa and to create new inroads to African nations further afield.  

Turkey's Expansion in Africa

 African Business published on 17 March 2021 an article titled "Erdogan's Ambition Drives Turkey's Africa Surge" by Charlie Mitchell.

Turkey is opening its 43rd embassy in Africa this year in Guinea-Bissau.  Turkish President Erdogan has visited more African countries than any other non-African leader.  

Turkey Reaches Out to African Maghreb

The South African Institute of International Affairs published on 3 February 2020 an analysis titled "Turkey and the Shifting Geopolitical Sands of North and East Africa" by Elias Eliades.

As Turkey gets increasingly mired in Syria it is expanding its influence in the African Maghreb. It signed two agreements with the Libyan government in Tripoli and President Erdogan made visits this year to Tunisia and Algeria.

Turkey, Libya, and Africa

Public Radio International posted on 2 January 2020 an interview with me titled "Is Turkey Seeking a Neo-Ottoman Empire?"

The focus of the interview is the recent decision by Turkey to send troops to Libya to support the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord against the forces of General Khalifa Haftar. It also looks at Turkey's wider interests in Africa.

Turkey's Efforts to Establish Influence in the Horn of Africa

Lawfare posted on 19 May 2019 an analysis titled "Turkey and the New Scramble for Africa: Ottoman Designs or Unfounded Fears?" by Zach Vertin, Brookings Institution.

The author notes that most Turkish officials and analysts suggest the Horn of Africa does not break the top five foreign policy issues for Turkey although the region is nevertheless significant. Turkey's actions in the Horn are motivated in part by competition with Gulf adversaries Saudi Arabia and the UAE. President Erdogan's wider ambitions are to sit atop a revitalized Muslim world but concerns about neocolonial or even territorial conquest are overstated.

Turkey's Policy in Africa

The Center for Strategic and International Studies recently posted an analysis titled "Neo-Ottomanism: Turkey's Foreign Policy Approach to Africa" by Asya Akca.

The author concluded that part of Turkish President Erdogan's agenda is to turn Turkey into a global power, while also taking the country back to the glory days of the Ottoman Empire. By shutting down Gulen schools in almost 30 African countries, Erdogan sees himself as putting down possible threats to Turkey's global expansion efforts.

Ethiopia: Is Abiy Ahmed a Liberal Democrat or a Liberal Populist?

Foreign Policy published on 5 December 2018 a commentary titled "Abiy Ahmed Is Not a Populist" by Tom Gardner, Ethiopia correspondent for the Economist.

After acknowledging charges by some that Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is a populist in the mode of Donald Trump or Turkey's Recep Tayyip Edrogan, the author concludes that he is a liberal democrat--or the closest approximation of one in contemporary Ethiopian politics--and not a populist.

Turkey Competes with China in Africa

Nikkei Asian Review published on 12 May 2018 an article titled "Turkey Jockeys with China for Influence in Africa" by Akihiro Sano.

The article concludes that while Turkey cannot match China's financial muscle in Africa, it does offer an alternative to China, particularly construction of large infrastructure projects.

Turkey Extends Influence in Red Sea

The Middle East Institute posted on 17 January 2018 an analysis titled "Turkey's Move into the Red Sea Unsettles Egypt" by Theodore Karasik and Giorgio Cafiero.

Turkey seems to have convinced Sudan to give it military access to Suakin Island, south of Port Sudan, in the Red Sea. Egypt fears that Sudan, with a Turkish military presence on Suakin Island, could feel emboldened to make an aggressive move against the disputed Halaib triangle along the Sudan-Egypt border. Turkey's entry into the Red Sea raises new questions for Arab states with high stakes in the region.

Turkey-Sudan Relations: A Turkish Military Base in the Red Sea?

Al-Monitor, a Washington-based media site with a focus on the Middle East, published on 3 January 2018 an article titled "Erdogan's Ottoman Dream Causes Storm in Red Sea" by Fehim Tastekin.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently visited Sudan, where he signed 13 agreements. Those with a financial commitment reportedly are financed by Qatar, a current ally of Turkey. Turkey's aid agency, TIKA, is already working to restore relics of its Ottoman heritage on Sudan's Red Sea island of Suakin. President Erdogan reportedly asked Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir if Turkey could establish a military base at Suakin. If this were to happen, it would anger Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE while it would be welcomed by Iran and Qatar and possibly even Somalia and Ethiopia. In any event, it would change the political/security dynamic in the Red Sea region.

Turkey's Policy in Somalia

The Istanbul Policy Center, an independent policy research institute, at Sabanci University published in December 2017 an analysis titled "From Benign Donor to Self-assured Security Provider: Turkey's Policy in Somalia" by Pinar Akpinar.

At a cost of $50 million and with a goal of training 10,000 Somali soldiers, Turkey established a military training facility in Mogadishu that demonstrates Turkey's support for the government of Somalia. The author concludes that a prudent approach by Turkey could enable it to secure a long-term presence in Somalia both as a benign donor and a self-assured security provider.