Nigeria Increases Exports to China but Still Has Huge Trade Deficit

 Nairametrics posted on 15 August 2026 an article titled "Nigeria's Exports to China Surge 80% to $2.3 Billion in H1 2026" by Emmanuel Azubuike.

Nigeria's exports to China surged by 80 percent to $2.3 billion in the first half of 2026 driven by China's zero-tariff policy for African countries.  Total Nigeria-China trade for the first half of 2026 reached $18 billion, leaving a huge Nigerian trade deficit with China of $13.4 billion.

China is Nigeria's largest trading partner, accounting for 15 percent of Nigeria's total trade.  China exports value-added manufactured and industrial goods to Nigeria, which sends agricultural and primary products to China.

African Solar Manufacturing May Not Compete with Chinese Imports

 The Associated Press published on 8 August 2026 an article titled "Africa Wants More Homegrown Solar to Boost Self-Reliance, but China's Shadow Remains" by Allan Olingo and Chan Ho-Him.

Several African countries are building more domestic solar manufacturing capacity, but they face competition from China's dominant global role in making solar cells and other components.  Africa is a perfect market for China's overcapacity in this sector.

Zambia Ends Raw Copper Exports to China and Elsewhere

 Business Insider Africa published on 27 July 2026 an article titled "Africa's Second-largest Copper Producer Curbs Raw Copper Exports and Makes Demands of Chinese Firms" by Awogbemila Temitope.

The Zambian government has restricted unrefined copper exports to force foreign mining and industrial companies to build local processing plants.  Chinese companies invest heavily in Zambia's mining sector and will be the most impacted by this policy change.

Sub-Saharan Africa Little Affected by Trump's New Tariffs

 The New York Times published on 24 July 2026 an article titled "New Tariffs as Old Ones Expire: The Latest on Trump's Trade War" by Tony Romm, Edison Wu, and Lazaro Gamio.

On 24 July, the Trump administration imposed new duties on imports from more than 80 countries as previous 10 percent global duties expired.  The new tariffs range between 10 and 12.5 percent.  

All five countries in North Africa now face the 12.5 percent tariff but sub-Saharan Africa seems to benefit from the new situation as only Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa are impacted--all at the 12.5 percent rate.    

China-Africa Trade First Half 2026

 Thierry Pairault just posted a paper titled "The Tariff Exemption Saga and the Results for the First Half of 2026."

China's zero tariff policy for all countries in Africa except Eswatini took effect on 1 May.  During the first half of 2026 Africa's trade deficit with China widened from $44.7 billion to $57.9 billion as of the end of the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025.  Chinese exports to Africa rose by 21.8 percent and imports from Africa by 16.3 percent compared with the same period in 2025.

Eight African countries (South Africa, DRC, Zambia, South Sudan, Nigeria, Chad, Algeria, and Zimbabwe) accounted for about 94 percent of the increase in Chinese imports from Africa during this period.  Almost the entire increase in the value of African exports to China was due to the shock in world commodity prices, largely independent of the zero-tariff policy.  

Nigeria-China Security Partnership

 The Nigerian government posted on 14 July 2026 a press release titled "Nigeria-China Defence Partnership: Minister of Defence in Beijing to Drive Tech Transfer and Boost DICON's Local Manufacturing" by Samuel Anyanwu.

Nigeria's minister of defense is in China for high-level discussions on defense, security cooperation, and a strategic partnership.  The purpose of the visit is to deepen bilateral defense cooperation, fast-track the modernization of Nigeria's armed forces, and radically boost Nigeria's local military production capabilities.

Discussions have centered on concrete technology transfer, technical capacity building, and establishing joint production lines in Nigeria in direct partnership with the Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria (DICON).  

African Views of the US vis-a-vis China Fall Since Beginning of Trump Administration

 The Pew Research Center published on 15 July 2026 research results titled "People in Many Countries Now View China More Positively than the U.S." by Jonathan Schulman, Laura Silver, Laura Clancy, and William Miner.

Pew surveyed public opinion of the United States and China in 36 countries, including 4--South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana--in Africa.  Since the beginning of the Trump administration, positive perceptions of the United States in the 4 African countries vis-a-vis China have fallen, although the US still maintains a slight lead in Ghana. 

Positive views of the United States and China today are: 

South Africa: 35 percent for the US and 52 percent for China

Nigeria: 63 percent for the US and 78 percent for China

Kenya: 63 percent for the US and 76 percent for China

Ghana: 68 percent for the US and 64 percent for China

When asked if they are confident Donald Trump or Xi Jinping will do the right thing, the results were:

South Africa: 26 percent for Trump and 46 percent for Xi

Kenya: 63 percent for Trump and 73 percent for Xi

Ghana: 54 percent for Trump and 56 percent for Xi

Nigeria: 65 percent for Trump and 62 percent for Xi

  

US Tweaks Security Strategy in Africa

 Business Insider Africa published on 3 July 2026 an article titled "U.S. Military Outlines New Africa Strategy Built on Intelligence, Drones, and Local Forces" by Solomon Ekanem.

Speaking after the 2026 Africa Chiefs of Defense Conference (ACHOD) in Luanda, Angola, from 30 June to 2 July, General Dagvin Anderson, commander of U.S. Africa Command, said the United States is shifting its strategy in Africa to a focus on intelligence sharing, affordable drones, and African led operations instead of relying on large US troop deployments.

For background on ACHOD, see "AFRICOM Hosts Key Defense Conference to Discuss Security Opportunities."

US-China Space-based Competition in Africa

 Space News published on 22 June 2026 a commentary titled "America Is About to Cede Africa's Space Industry to China, and Nobody's Talking About It" by Philip Dackiw.  

As China advances its own space program, there is still an opportunity for US companies to forge space-based partnerships in Africa, which is looking at significant space-focused technological expansion.  If the US does not seize this opportunity, China will.  

China's Transsion Adds Electric Motorcycles to Its Smartphone Dominance in Africa

 Launch Base Africa published on 22 June 2026 an article titled "NewTrails Capital, Backed by Africa's Leading Smartphone Manufacturer, Invests $55M in EV Startup Spiro."

China's Transsion Holdings, Africa's biggest smartphone seller, currently commands nearly half of the continent's market.  Through its stake in a Chinese growth-stage fund called NewTrails Capital, Transsion is investing $55 million in Spiro, Africa's largest electric vehicle and battery-swapping company.  For Spiro, the relationship opens doors to Chinese suppliers that could be decisive as it scales.  

US Counterterrorism Operations in Africa

 Eurasia Review published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "The Head of US Africa Command Testifies before Congress on American Counter-Terrorism Operations in Africa--Analysis" by Daniel Volman, director of the Africa Security Research Project in Washington.

This is a wide-ranging discussion of US efforts to counter terrorism in Africa.  It includes testimony in May before Congress by Dagvin Anderson, Commander of the U.S. Africa Command, and additional comments by other Trump administration officials.  The focus is on terrorist threats in Nigeria, the Sahel, and Somalia.  

The African Cocoa Industry and the Chinese Tariff Exemption

 Thierry Pairault posted on 13 June 2026 an analysis titled "The African Cocoa Industry and the Chinese Tariff Exemption."

He concludes that an African entrepreneur manufacturing chocolate for export to Europe would face a 30 percent customs duty, whereas the Chinese market is now tariff free.  For exporters capable of meeting Chinese customs standards, there is a real comparative advantage.  However, the tariff exemption does not create the productive and logistical capacities necessary to exploit this advantage.  The risk is therefore a consolidation of primary commodity specialization rather than its attenuation.

The true obstacle is structural, not tariff related.  The fundamental difference between African and Asian supply chains is not access to raw materials, but where value is created through processing.  

Chinese Arraigned in Nigeria for Illegal Mining

 The Daily Post published on 1 June 2026 an article titled "15 Chinese Nationals, Nine Nigerians Docked Over Alleged Illegal Lithium Mining in Nasarawa" by Chris Johnson.

Nigeria has arraigned 15 Chinese nationals and 9 Nigerians for engaging in the unlawful extraction of lithium.  It is one of the most significant arrests by Nigeria's Mining Marshals.

Russia's Africa Recruitment Web for Mercenaries in Ukraine

 Foreign Policy published on 5 May 2026 an article titled "Russia's Africa Recruitment Web Is Expanding" by Maurice Oniang'o, a Kenyan journalist.

This article looks across Africa at Russia's successful program to recruit, usually based on disinformation, men to come to Russia for work but are then given minimal military training and sent to the front lines in the war against Ukraine.

How Russia Lures Africans to Fight in Ukraine

 The New York Times published on 4 May 2026 an article titled "'The Death Zone': How Russia Is Luring Africans to Ukraine" by Matthew Mpoke Bigg, John Eligon, and Zimasa Matiwane.

An estimated 1,000 Kenyans went to Russia and ended up in the war against Ukraine.  Only 30 have returned to Kenya alive.  In addition, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Nigeria, Ghana, Togo, Botswana, Mali, and Cameroon have reported men being falsely recruited into the Russian army.  

China Hands Over Gifted ECOWAS Headquarters in Nigeria

 Business Insider Africa published on 29 April 2026 an article titled "China Hands Over $56.5 Million ECOWAS HQ in Nigeria, Expanding Influence in West Africa" by Segun Adeyemi.

China gifted and built the new $56.5 million ECOWAS headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria in a ceremony held this week.  

Vanguard published on 28 April 2026 an article titled "ECOWAS President Declared China W/Africa's Most Strategic Partner."

The president of the ECOWAS Commission described China at the ceremony "as West Africa's most strategic partner."  Nigeria's minister of state for foreign affairs said the headquarters is "a powerful symbol of the deepening ties between Africa and China."

Comment:  China buys a great deal of good will and influence in Africa by gifting and constructing key structures such as national parliaments, political party headquarters, presidential palaces, military barracks, and the headquarters for the African Union and ECOWAS.  

China-Africa Trade Grows but So Does Africa's Deficit

 Ecofin Agency published on 27 April 2026 an article titled "China-Africa Trade in 2026: Cooperation, but Not on Equal Terms" by Idriss Linge.

As exports to the United States fall sharply, China is turning increasingly to Africa to export its consumer and industrial products.  During the first quarter of 2026, China-Africa trade reached $92 billion, up 27 percent year on year.  But while Chinese exports to Africa rose 32 percent, African exports to China increased by only 18 percent.  Africa's trade deficit with China for the quarter reached $29 billion, nearly $10 billion higher than a year earlier.  

The zero-tariff policy announced for Africa by Xi Jinping beginning 1 May 2026 is largely cosmetic and will make little difference in the trade relationship because 95 percent of African exports to China already enter the country duty free.  

African Bank Explores Chinese Yuan Payments Program

 Nigeria Startup News posted on 24 April 2026 an article titled "Ecobank Moves to Enable Direct Yuan Payments for Africa-China Trade by 2026" by Paulinus Sunday. 

Pan-African Ecobank is in discussion with the Bank of China to establish a settlement framework that would allow payments to be made in Chinese yuan by the end of 2026, reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar.  Ecobank's yuan settlement plan signals a growing shift towards a more diversified and multipolar payments ecosystem for African trade.

Africa and Global Terrorism Index 2026

 The Institute for Economics and Peace posted on 30 March 2026 its "Global Terrorism Index 2026."

Of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism globally in 2025, six were in Africa: Burkina Faso (2), Niger (3), Nigeria (4), Mali (5), Somalia (7) and Democratic Republic of Congo (8).  Nevertheless, deaths in sub-Saharan Africa fell in ten countries while rising in just four.  Deaths in the Sahel region, however, accounted for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths globally.

Terrorism remains highly concentrated.  Just under 70 percent of deaths from terrorism occurred in only five countries: Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger, and the DRC.  Nigeria recorded the largest increase in 2025, with fatalities rising by 46 percent to 750.  Islamic State West Africa Province and Boko Haram were responsible for 80 percent of all terrorism deaths in Nigeria.

The DRC also reported a significant increase in terrorism, reaching its worst ever position on the index.  Deaths in the DRC rose by nearly 28 percent to 467, driven by attacks carried out by the IS-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces, which targeted civilians, churches, hospitals, and funerals.

Somalia's al-Shabaab, while experiencing a decline in terrorist deaths for the third consecutive year, launched its Shabelle Offensive in early 2025.  

Chinese Infrastructure Projects in Africa Leave No Role for Local Urban Planners

 The Conversation published on 30 March 2026 a commentary titled "China Is Helping Build Africa's Cities, but Its Approach Sidelines Local Urban Planners and Residents" by Ding Fei, Cornell University.

Chinese-financed infrastructure projects are transforming skylines and daily life across Africa.  While China delivers an impressive volume of infrastructure, it risks reinforcing Africa's national government dominance in decision-making on urban infrastructure development.  African local governments and residents are excluded from the project planning and negotiating process.