Sub-Saharan Africa Little Affected by Trump's New Tariffs

 The New York Times published on 24 July 2026 an article titled "New Tariffs as Old Ones Expire: The Latest on Trump's Trade War" by Tony Romm, Edison Wu, and Lazaro Gamio.

On 24 July, the Trump administration imposed new duties on imports from more than 80 countries as previous 10 percent global duties expired.  The new tariffs range between 10 and 12.5 percent.  

All five countries in North Africa now face the 12.5 percent tariff but sub-Saharan Africa seems to benefit from the new situation as only Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa are impacted--all at the 12.5 percent rate.    

World Bank Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth Prospects

 The World Bank Group published in April 2026 "Africa Economic Update: Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa."

The World Bank projects that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2026 will average 4.1 percent, the same as in 2025.  Downside risks, however, are emerging due in large part to disruptions caused by the war in Iran.  They include rising fuel, food, and fertilizer prices together with tighter financial conditions that are likely to push inflation higher, disrupt economic activity, and disproportionately affect the most vulnerable households which spend a larger share of their income on food and energy.

Arms Transfers to Sub-Saharan Africa

 The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 30 September 2024 a paper titled "The Complex Trends and Patterns in Arms Transfers to Sub-Saharan Africa" by Pieter Wezeman, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

The 6 largest arms importers in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2019-23 were Nigeria, Angola, Senegal, Mali, Uganda, and Ethiopia.  The major arms suppliers during this period were China (19 percent), Russia (17 percent), and France (11 percent).  Imports of arms by countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have been declining in recent years.

China's Belt and Road Engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa 1st half of 2023

 The Fudan University-based Green Finance & Development Center published on 1 August 2023 a report titled "China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2023 H1" by Christoph Nedopil Wang.  

During the first half of 2023, major growth areas of Chinese engagement were Namibia, Eritrea, and Tanzania, making Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) the fastest growing area for global  BRI engagement.  SSA accounted for 39 percent of global Chinese BRI construction engagement in the first half of 2023.  

China Is Growing Warship Supplier for Sub-Saharan Africa

 The International Institute for Strategic Studies published on 21 July 2023 an analysis titled "China a Growing Port of Call for African Naval Expansion" by Johannes R. Fischbach.  

The total number of active Sub-Saharan Africa surface combatants has almost tripled since 2008.  The region now counts 420 such vessels, up from 158 in 2008.  Most of the recently arrived vessels are patrol and coastal combatants.  

China has seen its market share of vessels supplied to the region rise from 9 percent in 2008 to 16 percent in 2023, making it the second largest supplier after Singapore.  

Chinese Investments and Contracts In Africa Flat or in Decline

 Andrea Ghiselli, Fudan University, posted on Twitter on  15 May 2023 four charts concerning China's investment and contracts in Sub-Saharan Africa through 2021.

Chinese FDI stock in Sub-Saharan Africa peaked in 2018 and then flatlined.  The value of construction and engineering contracts for Chinese companies in Sub-Saharan Africa mostly flatlined since 2014.  The number of Chinese contract workers in Sub-Saharan Africa peaked in 2014 and has been declining since.  

China Now Trades More with Sub-Saharan Africa than Both US and European Union

 The Atlantic Council blog posted on 22 July 2021 an analysis titled "China and Sub-Saharan Africa Trade: A Case of Growing Interdependence" by Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou, macroeconomist for the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center.  

China now accounts for 25 percent of merchandise trade with Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to 22 percent for the European Unio and only 6 percent for the US.  Since the beginning of this century, China's merchandise trade with SSA has risen sharply while it has declined modestly with the EU and declined significantly with the US.  The blog posting includes statistics for China's trade with individual countries in SSA since 2000.

World Bank Economic Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa

The World Bank published in January 2018 its "Global Economic Prospects: Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long?"

The section on Sub-Saharan Africa reports that growth rebounded to 2.4 percent in 2017 after slipping to 1.3 percent in 2016. Growth in the region is projected to rise to 3.2 percent in 2018 and to 3.5 percent in 2019, on the back of firming commodity prices and gradually strengthening domestic demand. Major oil/mineral economies in Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa will experience modest improvement. Non-resource intensive countries are expected to expand at a solid pace, helped by robust investment growth. Cote d'Ivoire is forecast to expand by 7.2 percent, Senegal by 6.9 percent, Ethiopia by 8.2 percent, and Tanzania by 6.8 percent.

Freedom of the Press 2017

Freedom House has just published its annual Freedom of the Press 2017 that measures media freedom in 199 countries and territories.

The report includes 50 entities in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Somaliland, which at position number 20 for Sub-Saharan Africa (111 globally) receives the best mark in East Africa and the Horn. The three East African countries (Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania) fall in the Sub-Saharan Africa mid range tied at position number 24. Globally, they tie for position 122. Countries in the Horn of Africa do less well. South Sudan ranks 34 (152 globally), Djibouti ranks 40 (165 globally), Somalia ranks 41 (170 globally), Ethiopia and Sudan tie for position 46 (183 globally), and Eritrea ranks last in Sub-Saharan Africa at position 50 (195 globally).

Reporters without Borders recently published its 2017 World Press Index. See the posting below dated 27 April 2017.

Projected Growth of Major Religions in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Pew Research Center published on 2 April 2015 a report on the projected growth of major religions in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).  In 2010, almost 63 percent of SSA's population was Christian; it is projected to decrease to 58.5 percent by 2050.  In 2010, the Muslim population of SSA was just over 30 percent and is projected to increase to just over 35 percent by 2050. 

Global Trends 2030

The U.S. National Intelligence Council released its Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds in December 2012. The intelligence study looks at the likely state of the planet in 2030. There is a brief section devoted to Sub-Saharan Africa; several of its conclusions follow.

Report cover.

The megatrends of population growth without aging, rapid urbanization, and, to some extent, middle class expansion will significantly shape the trajectories of most African countries and at least a few--particularly in the climate change-threatened Sahel and Sahara regions--will be sharply challenged by resource scarcities.

Education will be a game-changer for those African countries that not only offer nominally widespread schooling but ensure that qualified teachers are in classrooms--currently lacking across the continent.

Commodity-exporting countries need to be wary that increased volatility in global markets is probably ahead and will challenge their fiscal viability and stability if they do not work to diversify their economies.

Africa will be at risk of conflict and increased violence as development proceeds unevenly among and within African countries. The Sahel region, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia will be the most vulnerable and challenged to improve governance and resource management.

Click here to access the entire report.

2012 IMF Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa published in 2012 is now available. It offered the following conclusions:

--Despite difficult external conditions, output in Sub-Saharan Africa grew by 5 percent in 2011. Most countries shared in this expansion. Exceptions included South Africa, slowed by weakness in major European trading partners, and countries in West Africa affected by drought in the Sahel and civil conflict in Cote d'Ivoire.

--For 2012, the baseline projection is for much of the region's output momentum to be maintained. New resource production in several countries and recovery in West Africa will help nudge output growth up to 5.5 percent.

--The outlook is subject to substantial downside risks because of global uncertainties. Renewed financial stresses in the Euro area would reduce the pace of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in both 2012 and 2013.

--Most Sub-Saharan African banking systems have proved resilient to recent episodes of global financial stress.

--The rapid spread of pan-African banking groups in the last few years may in some cases have outpaced supervisory capacity.

--Natural resources are an important contributor to merchandise exports in nearly half of the 45 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the share of resource exports that accrue to national budgets varies widely across countries, with oil producers being the most successful in terms of revenue extraction.

--Countries that obtain considerable fiscal revenue from natural resources have experienced significantly higher volatility in exports, revenue, and nonresource GDP growth than other Sub-Saharan African economies.

Click here to access the entire report.