The Daily Maverick published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "China's Zero-Tariff 'Gift' to Africa Could Be a Trojan Horse in Disguise" by William Gumede, University of Witwatersrand.
China's new zero tariffs for African countries offer an opportunity to industrialize but it will only happen if they leverage China to build manufacturing capacity in Africa, transfer technology and skills, add value to raw materials, and secure Chinese financing for industry relevant infrastructure.
The UK's Institute of Development Studies published on 10 June 2026 a study titled "From Market Access to Strategic Openness: The New China-Africa Business Relationship" by Jing Gu.
China's new zero tariff policy for Africa opens doors for increased exports to China but does not automatically increase them. The real constraints are upstream standards compliance, rules of origin, certification, logistics, cold chains, customs systems, trade finance, and company-level capacity.
Semafor published on 3 June 2026 an article titled "Africa's Leverage with China Is Growing" by Yinka Adegoke.
It's simple; China needs Africa's raw materials, especially critical minerals, to maintain its industrial output and export program.
The Nanyang Technological University published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "China-Africa Trade Hits Record US$348bn as Deficit Balloons."
This is a nice summary of Africa-China trade since 2021, emphasizing increasing Chinese value-added exports to Africa and raw materials dominating African exports to China. There are structural issues that inhibit African value-added exports to China along with Chinese non-tariff barriers.
The South China Morning Post published on 21 January 2026 an article titled "Chinese Goods Pour into Africa, Widening Trade Gap to Record US$102 Billion Amid US Pressure" by Jevans Nyabiage.
In 2025, China had a record $102 billion trade surplus with Africa, increasing from a $62 billion surplus in 2024. In 2025, Chinese exports to Africa increased by 25.8 percent while African exports to China increased by only 5.4 percent. As China's exports to the United States declined, they ramped up to other parts of the world, especially Africa.
Comment: The increasing African trade deficit with China poses a major challenge in the relationship. It remains to be seen if China's recent zero tariff policy for many African countries will make a difference. In the case of those countries that do not sell what China wants to buy, zero tariffs will not have any significant impact.
B & FT Online posted on 10 December 2025 an article titled "Africa's Huge Trade Deficit: A Case of Lagging Processing Power" by Brian Muloni.
In 2024, Africa's trade deficit with China, its largest trade partner, was $61 billion and it is on track to worsen significantly in 2025. There are several reasons for this long-standing trade deficit with China, but the most important factor is that African exports to China are mainly raw materials while imports from China are mainly finished or manufactured goods.
The Emirates Policy Center posted on 24 October 2025 the English-language version of a study titled "China Exempts African Exports from Tariffs: Opportunities and Challenges for Gulf Countries."
China's decision to give full tariff exemptions for African exports could provide targeted benefits to specific sectors and countries. Some estimates suggest the tariff exemption could increase African exports to China from $170 billion annually to $250 billion. China's non-tariff barriers will continue, however, to limit imports from Africa.
Gulf state exporters may be able to re-export their products to China through Africa. Higher tariffs on African goods imposed by the Trump administration combined with China's elimination of tariffs creates favorable conditions for China to expand its influence in Africa.
Comment: While Beijing's decision should provide modest benefits for African countries, the fact remains that China has a significant trade surplus with Africa and this is not likely to change. Other than natural resources and some agricultural products, Africa just does not offer China exports that it wants to buy. China's elimination of tariffs will not make African value added and manufactured products sufficiently competitive in the Chinese market.
The China Global South Project published on 15 October 2025 an article titled "China's Manufacturing Might Keep Africa Tied to Its Solar Supply Chain" by Njenga Hakeenah.
Africa holds the raw materials needed to produce renewable energy products but lacks the scale and efficiency to compete with China in the manufacture of these products. Efforts to do so by companies in South Africa and Nigeria failed. African economies might be able to compete in the assembly of specialized products.
The Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria published on 2 September 2025 an analysis titled "Africa-China Trade: Openness Without Industry" by Marvellous Ngundu.
China has been the major contributor to Africa's trade imbalance for the past decade, and the situation could worsen as China seeks to sell goods previously destined for the United States to other markets. In 2024, a quarter of Africa's imports came from China while less than a fifth of Africa's exports went to China. Angola, South Africa, and the DRC accounted for more than half of Africa's exports to China, comprising mostly oil, cobalt, copper, ore, slag, and ashes. By contrast, Africa has had a consistent trade surplus with the United States.
APA News published on 9 June 2025 an article titled "China-Africa Trade Surges 12.4% between January and May."
China's exports to Africa between January and May 2025 as compared to the same period in 2024 increased by 20.2 percent while African exports to China increased by only 1.6 percent. Africa continues to export raw materials to China while importing manufactured goods from China.
Comment: This exacerbates a long-standing trend of African trade deficits in the China-Africa relationship and African raw materials exported to China in exchange for value added goods.
The China Global South Project published on 13 April 2025 a commentary titled "What Trump's Trade Policy Means for Africa, China, and the Future of Global Trade" by Obert Bore.
The escalation of the US-China trade war entangles African economies, which are caught in the middle. It may also undermine the African Continental Free Trade Area.
The China Global South Project published on 24 January 2025 a commentary titled "The Persistent China-Africa Trade Imbalance--Is It China's Fault?" by C. Geraud Neema Byamungu.
Africa continues to have a persistent trade deficit with China--$62 billion in 2024. The author argues that Africa is structurally ill-equipped to rebalance the trade relationship and must build a strong, competitive manufacturing sector to move beyond its dependence on raw material exports. For its part, Chinese companies can invest more heavily in downstream segments of African raw material value chains.
The Guardian published on 22 January 2025 an article titled "China-Africa Trade Up 4.8pc to $295bn in 2024."
Total trade between China and Africa in 2024 grew by 4.8 percent over 2023 to $296 billion. Chinese exports to Africa rose 3.5 percent to $179 billion while African exports to China increased 6.9 percent to $117 billion.
This left the 54 African countries with a trade deficit of $62 billion in 2024, down from $64 billion in 2023. China exported finished goods to Africa while Africa exported raw materials and agricultural products to China.
China's elimination of tariffs on 98 percent of products imported from 21 African countries and zero tariffs on products from the 33 least developed Arican countries has done little to redress a persistent African trade deficit with China.
Radio Free Asia published on 3 September 2024 an article titled "EXPLAINED: What Is the China-Africa Summit and Why Does It Matter?" by Luisetta Mudie.
The article discusses the issues that are likely to come up at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation summit in Beijing that begins on 4 September, China's changing approach to infrastructure financing, and its goal of exporting Chinese-sponsored international norms to African countries.
Thierry Pairault posted on 1 September 2024 a study titled "L'Union europeenne face a la Chine en Afrique."
The study provides an overview of China's and the EU's trade relations with Africa from 2000 until the end of 2023. Since 2000, the EU collectively has been a far larger market for African exports than is the case for China. While Africa's imports from China are growing more rapidly than those from the EU, the latter remains a larger source of African imports than China. Distance has much to do with this trade relationship.
The World Politics Review published on 29 August 2024 an article titled "The U.S. Can Provide an Alternative to China in Sub-Saharan Africa" by Ben Kallas, CEO of Searchlight, and Glenn Chafetz, director of the 2340 research group.
Drawing on lessons from Zambia, the authors argue that western companies can compete successfully with Chinese companies by following better business and labor practices, aided by more appropriate U.S. government funding and giving Africa more high-level attention.
The China Global South Project published on 26 August 2024 an analysis titled "Learning Through Lending: China-Africa Economic Engagement through FOCACs Past and Present" by Lucas Engel.
The analysis underscores China's move away from financing of large infrastructure projects in Africa, a new focus on lending to small-and medium-sized enterprises and growing African trade deficits with China. It suggests these changes have constituted a renegotiation of the basic tenets of China-Africa economic engagement. The analysis concludes that efforts to correct past imbalances and embrace and preserve past successes will be necessary to realize the full potential of next month's Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.
The Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies published on 14 March 2024 an analysis titled "China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Sanction-Proof Supply Lines and Dual-Use Ports" by Benedict Hamlyn.
Beijing's strategy in Africa is to court foreign policy influence in order to sanction-proof supply chains and develop dual-use ports for both commercial and military purposes. The author concludes that as the US-China relationship moves into stormier waters, China will continue to expand its naval reach and supply chain resilience, particularly as its declining economic surplus will see it concentrate financing on geostrategically important locations off the Atlantic coast and in the Indian Ocean.
My Joy Online published on 13 October 2022 the text of former Ghanaian President John Mahama's speech on China-Africa relations delivered at the Abuja Forum.
Mahama generally presented a positive analysis of China-Africa relations but emphasized the need to deal with Africa's trade deficit with China. In 2021, Africa imported $148 billion of goods from China and exported only $106 billion of goods to China. The overwhelming majority of African goods exported to China were raw materials and most of the imports from China were value added manufactured goods.
The Atlantic Council blog posted on 22 July 2021 an analysis titled "China and Sub-Saharan Africa Trade: A Case of Growing Interdependence" by Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou, macroeconomist for the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center.
China now accounts for 25 percent of merchandise trade with Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to 22 percent for the European Unio and only 6 percent for the US. Since the beginning of this century, China's merchandise trade with SSA has risen sharply while it has declined modestly with the EU and declined significantly with the US. The blog posting includes statistics for China's trade with individual countries in SSA since 2000.
