Sudan's Rapid Support Forces and the Future

 The International Crisis Group posted on 24 July 2025 a 32-minute podcast titled "What Does Sudan's RSF Want?" with Alan Boswell and Sarra Majdoub, Sudan analyst.

Khartoum became a liability for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) where it lacked local support.  Supply chains and recruiting became difficult and the RSF decided to pull out of the capital.  Fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and RSF has shifted to Kordofan and northern Darfur where the RSF is still a threat but does not have full control.  The RSF is fighting to stay politically relevant.

The RSF is comprised of many different ethnic groups, which creates the possibility for internal divisions.  It recently aligned with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North and may be preparing to establish a separate government in Western Sudan.  This could lead to a permanent state or only serve as a way to bargain with the SAF.

The RSF conducted drone strikes on the SAF in Port Sudan and elsewhere because it lost Khartoum and wants to send the message that it can reach the SAF anywhere.  The RSF's supply chain in Darfur is challenging but it receives requirements through Chad, southern Libya, and by air bridge to Nyala.  The RSF connection with the UAE is well known but Abu Dhabi is probably not in a position to dictate the RSF's future.  The RSF wants to be treated as an equal partner in Sudan.   

Will US-China Trade Differences Affect Africa?

 Nigeria's The Guardian published on 24 May 2025 an article titled "U.S.-China Trade Tension Poses No Risk in Africa" by Oliwe Anthony.  

The African Export-Import Bank concluded that recent US-China trade differences "would have little to no direct impact on Africa" for a variety of reasons.  Among the reasons is the fact that Africa's trade exposure to the United States is only 5 percent and to China 12 percent.  

US-China Competition for DRC's Critical Minerals and Rebel Threat to Regime

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 19 March 2025 an analysis titled "Can the DRC Leverage U.S.-China Competition for Critical Minerals for Peace?" by Christian-Geraud Neema.

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi's strategy is designed to help the Trump administration secure access to critical minerals and curtail China's expansion within the mineral supply chain.  As the Rwanda-baked M23 rebel group advances from the mineral rich eastern DRC towards Kinshasa, Tshisekedi's top priority may be regime survival.  The advance of the M23 forces has complicated control over minerals in the eastern Congo and US-China competition for access to them.  

DR Congo Proposes Minerals for US Companies in Exchange for Military Support

 Kenya's The Eastleigh Voice published on 4 March 2025 an article titled "Tshisekedi Courts US: DRC Offers Minerals in Exchange for Military Backing in War against M23 Rebels."

An American lobbyist for the Felix Tshisekedi government in Kinshasa sent a letter on 21 February to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio proposing privileged access by US companies to DRC critical minerals while giving Kinshasa military support to secure its territory against M23 rebels supported by Rwanda.  The US would train and equip the Congolese Armed Forces.  If the deal were to go forward, it would reverse the DRC's reliance on mineral exploitation by Chinese and European companies.  

US-China Competition for Africa's Critical Minerals

 The Atlantic Council published on 26 November 2024 a commentary titled "The US Won't Gain a Lead in the Competition for Africa's Critical Minerals Without Innovation" by Chris Moorman.

In order to compete successfully with China for Africa's critical minerals, it  needs to form partnerships with African countries that are economically feasible, environmentally sustainable, and ethical.  The only way to do that is by driving innovation along the critical minerals supply chain, specifically in processing and refining.

Halting Houthi Red Sea Attacks Remains a Challenge

 The Washington Post published on 22 June 2024 an article titled "Yemen's Houthis Undeterred by U.S. Campaign to Halt Red Sea Attacks" by Susannah George, Dan Lamothe, and Abigail Hauslohner.  

There have been about 100 Houthi drone and missile attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since the United States and United Kingdom began targeting Houthi launching sites in Yemen.  By the end of March, ship traffic through the Suez Canal and Red Sea had dropped by half because of the attacks.

China's Control of Lithium Market Hurts Small Miners in Zimbabwe

 Aljazeera published on 12 June 2024 an article titled "As China Scrambles for Zimbabwe's Lithium, Small Miners Are Left Behind" by Farai Matiashe.

Small scale Zimbabwe lithium miners have been harmed by the sharp drop in the price of the mineral and local laws that require it be sold to local companies for processing before export.  Chinese companies control the processing of lithium in Zimbabwe.  This situation has driven many of the artisanal Zimbabwe miners out of business.  

How Maersk Deals with Red Sea Shipping Disruption

 Maersk posted on 12 June 2024 an update titled "Navigating Challenges in the Red Sea and Beyond."

About 30 percent of global container traffic previously travelled through the Suez Canal and Red Sea.  Because of Houthi attacks on international shipping, Maersk, one of the largest users of this route, is now sailing around the Cape of Good Hope and avoiding the Suez Canal and Red Sea.  This has increased fuel costs by about 40 percent, caused delays and congestion in key ports such as Singapore and Shanghai, and has reduced industry wide shipping capacity by 15-20 percent.  

Kenya, US, China, and Russia

 Foreign Policy published on 23 May 2024 a commentary titled "Kenya and the U.S. Need Each Other More Than Ever" by Caroline Gray.

The author suggests that the visit to the United States by Kenyan President William Ruto is focused on increasing American investment in Kenya, renewing the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, and moving forward with the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership.  President Ruto also explained concerning his countries ties with China and the United States that "we want to be friends to all and an enemy to none."

China Seeks To Secure Dual Use Ports and Supply Lines in Africa

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies published on 14 March 2024 an analysis titled "China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Sanction-Proof Supply Lines and Dual-Use Ports" by Benedict Hamlyn.

Beijing's strategy in Africa is to court foreign policy influence in order to sanction-proof supply chains and develop dual-use ports for both commercial and military purposes.  The author concludes that as the US-China relationship moves into stormier waters, China will continue to expand its naval reach and supply chain resilience, particularly as its declining economic surplus will see it concentrate financing on geostrategically important locations off the Atlantic coast and in the Indian Ocean.

Zimbabwe Needs to Maximize Value from China's Lithium Investments

 African Arguments published on 23 January 2024 a commentary titled "Zimbabwe Looks to China to Secure Place in EV Battery Supply Chain" by Andrew Mambondiyani, journalist based in Zimbabwe.  

Chinese companies have invested over $1.4 billion to access Zimbabwe's lithium reserves, the largest in Africa.  If it is not careful, Zimbabwe will squander this wealth because of regulatory gaps, human rights abuses, illegal trade, and corruption.  Zimbabwe has made it easy for China to exploit mining in the country.  It needs to process locally more of the lithium rather than export raw ore.  

Disruption of Red Sea Supply Chains

 The US Institute of Peace published on 22 December 2023 an analysis titled "Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea Disrupt Global Supply Chains" by Susan Stigant.  

The author looks at the impact on commercial shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal of Houthi drone and missile attacks and efforts by a US-led naval task force to counter the problem.  

China and US Complicit in Equatorial Guinea's Illegal Logging

 The Environmental Investigation Agency published in November 2023 a report titled "The Dictator's Door: From Crimes in Equatorial Guinea's Forests to Home Depot's Customers."

This report presents investigative findings that connect illegal logging of okoume logs in Equatorial Guinea and opaque processing of the logs in China with millions of doors sold to US customers via more than 750 Home Depot stores.  Once in China, the logs enter processing and veneer manufacturing supply chains so opaque that companies are often unable to trace the origin of the timber.  

China, the West, and Critical Minerals from Africa

 The Daily Maverick published on 26 October 2023 a commentary titled "Africa Is a Key Source of Critical Minerals for the Global Energy Transition--But There Are Hidden Dangers" by Adrian Joseph.

China is the dominant producer and processor of critical minerals, many of which come from Africa.  A growing number of countries, especially the United States and members of the European Union, are concerned about their vulnerability due to a disruption of supply chains.  But African countries are also concerned that they are only suppliers of raw materials and have almost no role in processing the minerals.  

China Steps Up Influence in Western Indian Ocean

 The Australian Institute of International Affairs posted on 16 October 2023 a commentary titled "China's Western Indian Ocean Step Up" by Kate O'Shaughnessy, Perth USAsia Centre and former Australian high commissioner to Mauritius and Seychelles and ambassador to Madagascar and Comoros.

China has been steadily building its presence in the Western Indian Ocean.  Beijing has the largest diplomatic presence in Seychelles and is the largest foreign donor in the Comoros.  France and India are watching this development with concern.  

China-US Competition for Africa's Critical Minerals

 The Atlantic Council published on 12 October 2023 an analysis titled "How the US Can Build Better Strategic Partnerships in Africa to Secure Critical Minerals" by Nii Simmonds and Shirley Martey Hargis.

China currently dominates 90 percent of the global market for critical minerals, including imports from Africa, which has the minerals that will power the modern world.  The US should incentivize and strengthen private sector partnerships with African countries to secure supply chains.  More urgent action is needed to counter China's dominance of the continent's critical minerals.

Recent Analysis of China-Africa Ties from Chinese Perspective

 West Africa and Asia published on 6 May 2023 an article in Chinese translated as "The New Journey and New Thinking of China-Africa Cooperation in the Era of Great Changes" by Zhou Yuyuan, deputy director of the Center for West Asian and African Studies, Shanghai Institutes of International Studies.  The Interpret: China project at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) translated the article into English.  

This is an important, comprehensive, and current analysis of China's view of Africa today and its interaction with great powers on the continent.  Zhou Yuyuan was a fellow at CSIS in 2017.  Reflecting Xi Jinping's policies, the article underscores support for a UN-centered global governance system implicitly led by China.  It takes account of Xi Jinping's most recent policy statements aimed at the Global South: the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative.

Zhou notes the significance of Africa for China's supply chain security and global industrial competition.  He identifies the major problems in China-Africa cooperation and concludes that once again China-Africa relations are in a "critical period."  He highlights the need to develop relations with the African Union and African sub-regional organizations and to give greater attention to the African private sector and small and medium-sized enterprises.  

In view of all the current talk of great power competition in Africa, Zhou argues rather surprisingly that "We must promote dialogue, coordination, and cooperation between major power in Africa with African countries at the center."  He adds that Africa can "promote mutual understanding between major countries, make use of the comparative advantages of major countries, and promote the construction of benign major power relations."  

China-US Competition in Africa

 The New York Times published on 23 August 2023 an article titled "China Tries to Increase Its Clout in Africa Amid Rivalry With the U.S." by David Pierson and Lynsey Chutel.  

Chinese President Xi Jinping sees himself as the leader of the developing world in China's effort to offer an alternative to the US-led global order.  Africa is an emerging battleground for global influence.  

China, the DRC, and Artisanal Cobalt Mining

 The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America published on 20 June 2023 a study titled "China, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Artisanal Cobalt Mining from 2000 through 2020" by Andrew L. Gulley, U.S. Geological Survey.  

The study systematically evaluates the role of artisanal mining in world cobalt mine production.  It finds that artisanal cobalt mining's share of world cobalt mining has generally decreased since 2008 and that most artisanal production was either processed in the DRC by Chinese firms or exported to China.  

China: Moving from Belt and Road to Global Development Initiative

 The Diplomat published on 11 July 2023 an analysis titled "China's Transition from the Belt and Road to the Global Development Initiative" by Lunting Wu, research associate at the Berlin-based Cluster of Excellence "Contestations of the Liberal Script."

The author argues that China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is being eclipsed and may eventually be replaced by the newer Global Development Initiative (GDI).  The author explains the differences between the BRI and GDI and why China has decided to emphasize the latter.