Is the West Losing Out in the Seychelles?

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 23 July 2026 an analysis titled "Losing Control of the West's Longstanding Interests in Seychelles" by Wojciech Pawlus.

The author suggests that the West is losing out in the democratic Indian Ocean archipelago of Seychelles to India, China, Russia, and the Gulf States.  He believes the current government is becoming more autocratic and urges Washington, Brussels, London, and Paris to reach out before it is too late.

PLA Navy Destroyer Visits Seychelles

  Global Times published on 27 June 2026 an article titled "Chinese Navy's Destroyer Tangshan Arrives in Seychelles for a Friendly Visit" by Wang Zixuan.

The PLA Navy's guided-missile destroyer Tangshan arrived at Port Victoria in Seychelles on 26 June for a 5-day port call.  The Tangshan was part of the 48th naval task force in the Gulf of Aden that arrived in October 2025.

China's Influence in Africa Increases on Political Issues

 The Interpreter, produced by Australia's Lowy Institute, published on 22 May 2026 a commentary titled "China's Influence in Africa Is No Longer Just Economic" by Isel Van Zyl. 

The author argues that the cancellation of overflight permission by Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar for Taiwan's president to visit Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan, highlights that China's influence in Africa is no longer confined to the economic sector.

China's growing leverage in Africa is now expressed through diplomatic pressure, political signaling, and the ability to shape what governments, organizations, and even international conferences can and cannot do. 

Comment:  Beijing has exercised political influence in Africa for decades.  One only need compare African country voting patterns in the UN General Assembly or consider the publicly stated policy of most countries on China's core domestic issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang, human rights, and island building in the South China Sea.  

Taiwan President's Secret Flight to Eswatini

 The New York Times published on 14 May 2026 an article titled "Inside the Secret Mission to Fly Taiwan's President to Africa" by Chris Buckley and Amy Chang Chien.  

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's first attempt to visit Eswatini, the only African country that recognizes Taipei, was aborted when Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar at the last-minute revoked permission to overfly their airspace.  This account details how Lai Ching-te managed subsequently to circumvent these denials by flying secretly on the royal jet that brought Eswatini's deputy prime minister to Taiwan for a visit.  

Taiwan President's Visit to Eswatini Strikes Nerve in Beijing

 Reuters published on 6 May 2026 an article titled "China Condemns Eswatini for Being 'Kept and Fed' by Taiwan in Travel Row" by Liz Lee, Ben Blanchard, and Lunga Masuku.

Beijing used strong language in condemning Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan, for receiving President Lai Ching-te.  Eswatini responded that Beijing's response falls short of the standards expected in respectful international discourse from a country that positions itself as a responsible global actor.

Comment:  Ouch! Score one for Eswatini.

Taiwan's President Finally Makes It to Eswatini

 The Associated Press published on 2 May 2026 an article titled "Taiwan's President Lands in Eswatini, under China's Shadow."

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te finally made it to Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taipei, on 2 May.  He had to reschedule his original visit when three African countries, reportedly under pressure from Beijing, cancelled overflight permission for his aircraft.  

Africa and the Press Freedom Index

 Reporters without Borders just published its 2026 "World Press Freedom Index."  It ranks 180 countries.  The United States dropped seven places to 64 compared to 57 in 2025.  

Ten African countries had better scores than the United States.  The top five African press freedom countries were Seychelles (35), Ghana (39), Cape Verde (40), Mauritius (42) and Gabon (43).  But African countries were also well represented at the bottom of the list.  The five worst performers were Eritrea (180), Egypt (169), Djibouti (167), Sudan (161), and Ethiopia (148).  Curiously, all five are in northeast Africa.

Foreign Minister Represents Taiwan at Eswatini Celebration

 The Taipei Times published on 26 April 2026 an article titled "Lin Chia-lung Visits Eswatini as Envoy."

Following the cancellation of overflight permission by Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar for the president of Taiwan to attend the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III's accession to the throne, Taiwan's foreign minister arrived in Eswatini as his country's special envoy at the celebration.  

China-Taiwan Tension in Aftermath of Cancelled Visit to Eswatini

 Academicjobs.com posted on 23 April 2026 an article titled "China-Taiwan Tensions Escalate: African Airspace Denials Force President's Africa Trip Cancellation."

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te was set to attend the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III's accession to the throne in Eswatini.  The president cancelled the visit at the last minute when Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar revoked overflight permission for the presidential aircraft.  

Taipei charged that Beijing pressured the three countries to revoke the overflight permission.  Beijing did not acknowledge any role but praised the action of the three countries.  The United States condemned China's intimidation campaign.

Taiwan President Cancels Visit to Eswatini Following Overflight Denial by Three Countries

 The BBC published on 22 April 2026 an article titled "Taiwan President Cancels Trip after African Countries Revoke Flight Permits" by Yvette Tan.

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te cancelled a trip to Eswatini, accusing China of putting pressure on other countries to bar his aircraft from flying over their territories.  A Taiwan official said Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar revoked Lai's flight permits after "intense pressure" and economic coercion from Beijing.  

China Provides Grant to Seychelles

 teleSUR posted on 18 April 2026 an article titled "China Grants $14.6 Million to Seychelles to Fund Strategic Projects."

China recently provided 100 million yuan ($14.6 million) in grant assistance to Seychelles for infrastructure and food security projects.  

Comment:  While this is a modest amount for a grant aid contribution, the population of Seychelles is just over 100,000 and a modest sum can have a significant impact.  

Beijing Shows Different Look in Africa Compared to US

 China-Africa Security Radar posted on 2 April 2026 a commentary titled "Beijing Capitalizes on Washington's Aggression" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.  

China's Vice President Han Zheng visited Kenya, South Africa, and Seychelles in March.  The author argues the visit was timed in the context of Washington's capture of the Venezuelan president and the US/Israeli war against Iran.  

Both developments demonstrated US willingness to deploy military power unilaterally and with little deference to international law.  This juxtaposition of events permitted Han Zheng to underscore to an African audience China's message of South-South solidarity, sovereign equality, and development partnership.   

Maritime Multilateralism in the Indian Ocean

 The Diplomat published on 16 January 2026 an analysis titled "The New Age of Maritime Multilateralism in the Indian Ocean" by Gayathry Gopal, KCC Institute of Law, Greater Noida.  

The Indian Ocean is not dominated by a single power but by a multitude of actors of varying capabilities and interests, thereby making the emerging order not only polycentric but also highly fragile.  India is the resident and traditional security provider.  The United States has a strong presence in the Indian Ocean.  

No actor, however, matches China in the scale and pace of its expansion.  It now has embassies in all Indian Ocean littoral states, participates in all regional organizations, has invested in some 17 ports around the rim of the Indian Ocean, and has a permanent military base in Djibouti.

Increasingly, smaller states are engaging in the region.  This interplay of great power competition and small states' quest for influence has produced a polycentric security order that is dynamic and structurally fragmented.  

Seychelles, Election, India, and China

 Strategic Horizons included in its Fall 2025 issue an article titled "Seychelles at a Crossroads: Democracy, Development, and the Geopolitical Chessboard" by Achala Gunasekara-Rockwell.  

The primary focus of the article is the internal situation in Seychelles and the 2025 presidential elections that occurred after publication.  There was no outright winner in the election as a candidate must win more than 50 percent of the vote.  Opposition candidate Patrick Herminie received 48.8 percent of the vote while the incumbent, Wavel Ramkalawan, garnered 46.4 percent.  A runoff election will take place from October 9-11.  

A subtheme in the article is the role of Seychelles in great power competition, especially involving China and India.  A small state like Seychelles, strategically located in the Indian Ocean, must navigate the shifting tectonics of great power competition.  The author concludes that Seychelles "ability to assert its sovereignty while deftly managing the competing pressures of China and India is a masterclass in small-state agency.  Seychelles' refusal to allow itself to become a pawn in Beijing's Maritime Silk Road strategy or New Delhi's counterbalancing efforts speaks to its determination to prioritize national interests over external agendas."

China-India Competition in the Western Indian Ocean

 Stimson published on 20 August 2025 a commentary titled "India Must Level Up to Compete with China in the Western Indian Ocean" by Radhey Tambi.

The author argues that India is falling behind China's influence in the Western Indian Ocean and needs to step up its diplomatic, political, institutional, military, economic, and soft power engagement with the island countries if it intends to compete with Beijing.  

Contest for the Indian Ocean

 The July 2025 issue of Asia Policy contains a book review roundtable of Darshana M. Baruah's book titled The Contest for the Indian Ocean and the Making of a New World Order (Yale University Press 2024).  The focus of the book is great power competition and the role of the island countries in the Indian Ocean.

The roundtable consists of the following brief discussions:

--Power Asymmetry and Competition in the Indo-Pacific: The Island States of the Indian Ocean by Frederic Grare.

--Prioritizing the Indian Ocean in the Indo-Pacific by Nilanthi Samaranayake.

--The Agency of Island States in the Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean by Isabelle Saint-Mezard.

--The Island States Have Agency in the Contest for the Indian Ocean--But How? by Pradeep Taneja.

--Opening, Broadening, and Deepening the 'Geo' in the Geoppolitics of the Indian Ocean by Sanjay Chaturvedi.

--Author's Response: Reframing the Indian Ocean Debate by Darshana M. Baruah.

China Allows Citizens from 74 Countries to Enter without Visa--2 from Africa

 The Associated Press published on 9 July 2025 an article titled "Citizens of More Than 70 Countries Can Now Visit China Without a Visa" by Fu Ting.  

China has increased to 74 the number of countries whose citizens can enter for up to 30 days without a visa.  Only 2 African countries--Mauritius and Seychelles--are on the list.  

India Hosts Joint Naval Exercise with Africans to Counter China

 Iglobalnews.com posted on 14 April 2025 an article titled "Indian Navy Conducts Historic Joint Exercise in Africa."

Three Indian naval vessels joined four from Tanzania in Dar es Salaam on 13 April as part of a two-phase joint exercise that includes participants from Comoros, Djibouti, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, and South Africa.  Phase one includes table-top and command post exercises in Dar es Salaam focused on anti-piracy and information building.  The sea phase will focus on strengthening maritime security cooperation.  Officers and sailors from the 10 countries will spend 35 days together on one of the Indian ships to learn each other's best practices.  

Comment:  The Deputy Chief of Staff of the Indian Navy, Vice Admiral Tarun Sobti, earlier told the Polish Press Agency that "these maneuvers aim to counter China's growing influence in the region."

PLA Navy Hospital Ship Completes Visit to Africa

 The Diplomat published on 11 February 2025 a commentary titled "China's Navy Steps Up Its Peace Ark Diplomacy" by Lea Thome.

The PLA Navy's hospital ship, Peace Ark, completed in December 2024 its six-month circumnavigation of Africa where it made stops of seven days each in the following ports: Victoria, Seychelles; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Antsiranana, Madagascar; Maputo, Mozambique; Cape Town, South Africa; Luanda, Angola; Brazzaville, Republic of Congo; Owendo, Gabon; Douala, Cameroon; Cotonou, Benin; Nouakchott, Mauritania; and Djibouti.  

Indian Ocean Security and US Strategy

 The East-West Center published on 18 October 2024 a bulletin titled "Connecting West and East: Indian Ocean Security and the US Indo-Pacific Strategy" by Nilanthi Samaranayake.  

Washington appears to be increasingly recognizing the importance of the western Indian Ocean, suggesting that it may be starting to conceive of the Indian Ocean as a region on its own terms.