The Diplomat published on 16 January 2026 an analysis titled "The New Age of Maritime Multilateralism in the Indian Ocean" by Gayathry Gopal, KCC Institute of Law, Greater Noida.
The Indian Ocean is not dominated by a single power but by a multitude of actors of varying capabilities and interests, thereby making the emerging order not only polycentric but also highly fragile. India is the resident and traditional security provider. The United States has a strong presence in the Indian Ocean.
No actor, however, matches China in the scale and pace of its expansion. It now has embassies in all Indian Ocean littoral states, participates in all regional organizations, has invested in some 17 ports around the rim of the Indian Ocean, and has a permanent military base in Djibouti.
Increasingly, smaller states are engaging in the region. This interplay of great power competition and small states' quest for influence has produced a polycentric security order that is dynamic and structurally fragmented.
