Responsible Statecraft posted on 12 August 2026 an article titled "How the Egypt-Ethiopia Feud Could Upend Trump's Plans in Africa" by Jonathan Fenton Harvey.
The United States is sending mixed and confusing signals to Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland on complex relations in the region dealing with allocation of Nile waters and Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea.
The Economist published on 6 August 2026 an article titled "The Ruin of Sudan."
Based on a visit to Khartoum and Omdurman, the article shows the devastation caused by more than three years of war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The SAF is now in control of the capital region.
The Somali Media Network posted on 8 August 2026 a 42-minute podcast with me hosted by Ismail Gorse on the Horn of Africa.
This is a wide-ranging discussion of current issues in the Horn of Africa and US policy with a special focus on Somalia and Somaliland.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Red Sea" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
Saudi Arabia announced on 30 July the formation of a Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to protect shipping in the Red Sea and adjacent waterways following the Bab el-Mandeb Strait blockade of Saudi ships by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. So far, 14 nations have joined the task force.
The Doha, Qatar-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs published in February 2026 an open access E-book titled "The Red Sea: Divided by Water, United by Opportunities" edited by Dalia Ghanem, Mehari Taddele Maru, Luigi Narbone, and Carlo Palleschi.
This book provides a comprehensive analysis that breaks down the silos between Middle Eastern countries (MECs) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). It argues that it is impossible to understand the region's trajectory by looking at one side of the Red Sea in isolation and examines interactions between the MECs and the HOA. It seeks to align visions and identify concrete steps toward realizing the vision of a region that, though divided by waters, is united by opportunities.
Modern Diplomacy published on 5 August 2026 a commentary titled "Cairo's Shadow War in Sudan: Drones, Borders and a Fading Army Ally" by Carla Davies.
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been engaged in conflict with the Sudan Armed Forces for more than three years. Drones launched from inside Egypt have targeted the RSF inside Sudan for at least six months. Egypt's strong support for the Sudan Armed Forces is linked in part to a coordinated Egypt-Sudan effort to counter Ethiopia's position on Nile water issues.
The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in July 2026 a report titled "State of Somalia 2025."
The report reviews the major political, security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and regional developments that shaped Somalia in 2025. Somalia recorded notable gains in international diplomacy, institutional development, regional integration, and state visibility. It also experienced persistent political polarization, federal-state tensions, humanitarian vulnerability, and unresolved questions surrounding constitutional and electoral processes that continued to challenge state-building efforts.
Somalia demonstrated growing international relevance and achieved several important diplomatic and institutional milestones. Yet progress remained constrained by external interference, including Israel's violation of Somalia's sovereignty through its recognition of Somaliland, alongside political fragmentation, unresolved constitutional questions, persistent insecurity, and recurring humanitarian crises.
Aljazeera published on 21 July 2026 an article titled "Who Is Driving Diplomacy in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and Why?"
US senior adviser for Africa, Massad Boulos, recently held meetings in Cairo with the foreign ministers of Somalia and Eritrea as part of an effort to prevent another regional crisis or build a broader diplomatic framework.
Comment: These meetings may well have been routine diplomacy, constituting less than is implied in the Aljazeera lead to the article.
World Politics Review published on 13 July 2026 an article titled "Sudan Could Be Headed for De Facto Partition" by Mohamed Wad Al-Sak.
If the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces take control of El Obeid in central Sudan from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), it could result in a de facto partition of the country. El Obed is the SAF's last command center in central Sudan and the linchpin of its western supply corridor.
The International Crisis Group published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "As the Horn of Africa Nears Boiling Point, Time for Urgent Diplomacy" by Alan Boswell.
Given the uncertainty about Washington's level of commitment to bring peace to the Horn of Africa, additional Gulf States, the European Union, the United Nations, Norway, and the United Kingdom should step up their engagement.
Reuters published on 15 July 2026 an in-depth article titled "The US Army Veteran and the Mystery Boeings Flying Sudan's War Routes" by Alexander Dziadosz, Reade Levinson, and David Lewis.
Companies registered in Singapore and the UAE owned by a US government, and military contractor and US Army Special Forces veteran have been operating several Boeing aircraft linking regional supply routes of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan. The United Nations has accused the RSF of genocide. The United States has not sanctioned the companies.
China-Africa Security Radar published on 13 July 2026 an article titled "Why This Chinese Surveillance Patent Matters for Africa's Future Policing Models."
South Africa granted a Chinese public security technology company with close ties to state security institutions a patent for algorithmic policing that could potentially shape the future of policing in Africa. The patent is for mapping relationships between people using digital traces, including text and social media. The rise of digital authoritarianism across parts of Africa raises the possibility for abuse of this technology.
The International Crisis Group posted on 10 July 2026 a 40-minute podcast titled "Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?" with Alan Boswell and Payton Knopf, Dialogue Advisory Group and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.
They discuss the background and status of the Pretoria Agreement and the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region. They look at how unresolved disputes over territory, Tigray's federal status, internal divisions, and worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could push the region back toward war. They also unpack why escalating regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, could make a renewed conflict even more explosive, why full-scale war is not inevitable, and what practical off ramps still remain.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 July 2026 an article titled "US Sanctions RSF and SAF" by Michael DeAngelo.
The United States has imposed additional sanctions on parties backing the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan. These sanctions are part of a long list of US sanctions dating back to 2023.
Comment: Previous US sanctions on the warring parties in Sudan have had no impact on the fighting and these new sanctions will simply be more of the same.
The Rift Valley Institute recently published a report titled "The New Geopolitics of Eastern Africa."
The British Institute of Eastern Africa, Chatham House, and the Rift Valley Institute convened a group of experts to discuss the ongoing transformation of geopolitics in the Horn of Africa. This paper summarizes their conclusions, noting that the region is experiencing profound multi-decade shifts in its relationship with the wider world.
The International Crisis Group posted on 29 June 2026 a 41-minute podcast titled "The Scramble for the Red Sea Is Not Cooling Down" by Alan Boswell with Federico Donelli, University of Trieste and author of a new book on the topic.
The scramble for control in the Red Sea region began during the Cold War and increased in intensity in the 21st century. There are now many new actors in the Red Sea. Middle powers have become as significant as major powers.
Russia has been seeking, so far without success, a military base in the region for years. China established a military base in Djibouti to protect its interests in the region and to extend global power. The Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, have become much more engaged in the Red Sea.
The US/Israeli war against Iran has underscored the importance of the Red Sea for international shipping. The European Union is the one grouping that should be more engaged in the region than it is.
Aljazeera published on 28 June 2026 an article titled "'Digging with a Needle': Generals Stall Peace as Sudan's El-Obeid Burns."
The leaders of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are demonstrating no serious interest in bringing the deadly Sudan conflict to an end. Mediation and a ceasefire seem to be the last thing on their minds as the drone war heats up.
UN News posted on 26 June 2026 an article titled "Sudan: Window Is Closing to Prevent Wider Escalation in El Obeid."
This is a useful update on the situation in Sudan that summarizes the fighting, use of drones, external interference, regional tensions, and status of efforts to mediate an end to the conflict.
Space News published on 22 June 2026 a commentary titled "America Is About to Cede Africa's Space Industry to China, and Nobody's Talking About It" by Philip Dackiw.
As China advances its own space program, there is still an opportunity for US companies to forge space-based partnerships in Africa, which is looking at significant space-focused technological expansion. If the US does not seize this opportunity, China will.
Fronts, an independent online news source owned by a privately held Czech company, posted on 15 June 2026 a commentary titled "The Egypt-Ethiopia Cold War Is Key to the Horn's Growing Conflicts" by Liam Karr.
The author suggests a "cold war" between Ethiopia and Egypt is a battle for regional dominance, touches nearly every conflict in the Horn of Africa, and is fueling tensions in an already unstable region. Control over Nile waters and landlocked Ethiopia's desire to obtain access to the sea loom large in this cold war.
